Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, June 7,2010

Bryan Leonard

Los Angeles at Seattle

We used Jason Vargas last time out with positive results and we return to the underrated hurler on Sunday. In a 2010 starter competition the host hurler wins hands down. In his last seven starts he owns a 2.53 ERA holding every opponent to 3 earned runs or less. His counterpart Joel Piniero owns a 6.26 ERA over the same time period. Vargas has faced the Angels twice in his career posting an outstanding 1.32 ERA including 7.1 shutout innings against LA earlier this season.

The Angels are just 8-11 on the year vs lefties and despite their recent offensive uptick they will surely miss the big bat of Morales in the middle of the order. The Mariners are 28-12 in the final game of a home series and they salvage a victory today over the overrated Angels.

PLAY SEATTLE

Craig Trapp

Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Atlanta Braves

What great value on the hottest team in MLB. The last month ATL is 20-6 and have won 8 of last 10. On the other side ARI is really struggling losing 8 of last 10. For ATL Lowe takes the mound and tries to continue his amazing pitching. Lowe is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his past five outings, and in his last three has only given up one run in last two outings. On the other side we have Haren for Arizona. The right-hander is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last five starts and was tagged for seven runs over 4 1/3 innings by Atlanta on May 16. In his career he is 1-2 against ATL with a 7.13 ERA. The bats of ARI have been so quiet the last 6 games only scoring more than 4 runs once. Atlanta's bats have been super hot over this huge winning streak and today they will continue to hit as they score at least 5 runs. ATL wins this one going away.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers

Texas has controlled Seattle this year winning 5 of the 6 games. Tonight they come in with solid angles to support them. The Rangers are 10-4 in Division play and 4-1 on Monday. Seattle is terrible in division games losing 17 of 23 times and 17 of 24 times on the road this year. At the plate they are anemic in division play hitting.220 and scoring a shade over 3 runs. They have a terrible road bullpen era at 5.57. In the pitching matchup it appears that Seattle has the edge with C.Lee starting. However Lee has not pitched well in Texas. In fact he has allowed 13 earned runs on 19 hits in 10 innings pitched in Texas. The Rangers counter with S. Feldman tonight. Feldman is 2-0 at home vs Seattle and has allowed just 3 runs in 14 home innings pitched vs the Mariners. The Rangers are a nice value play here tonight.

David Chan

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: San Diego Padres

Take the Padres and Wade LeBlanc over the Phillies and Cole Hamels.

Wade LeBlanc has hit a bit of a rough patch but is worth a speculative bet here at better than +160 in what could shape up as a nice situation. The Phillies have been shuffling lately and are a tepid 5-8 against southpaw starters this season. They’ve never seen LeBlanc as a starter.

Headed into Sunday, the Padres are a useful 14-11 on the road and 10-7 against lefty starters themselves. Hamels has been inconsistent against the Padres, as he’s been against many clubs in recent years.

Rain shortened Hamels’ last outing after 0.2 IP on June 1. He might be thankful: 3 ER, 2H, 2 BB, with a K. Let’s hope he picks up where he left off.

At Phillies -140 this one would be no bet, but we’re getting too much here. Best of luck in all your bets, DC.

EZWINNERS

Chicago Cubs -135

The Cubs starting pitcher Carlos Silva has been the best starting pitcher on the Chicago staff so far this season. Silva has been fantastic and has posted an incredible 7-0 record with an ERA of only 3.12. Dana Eveland will be making his first start for Pittsburgh after being traded to the Pirates from Toronto for a minor league pitcher. Eveland has not pitched very well this season as he is 3-4 with a very high ERA of 6.45. Control has always been as issue for Eveland who tends to hang a lot of pitches and I don't expect things to change for him after switching to the National League. The Cubs have only defeated the Pirates once this season, but this will be their second win. Play on Chicago.

JIM FEIST

LOS ANGELES ANGELS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Two veteran pitchers matchup today as the Angels travel to the bay area to take on the A's. Both teams are neck-and-neck for the division race in the AL West. Scott Kazmir came over to the Halos from the Rays where he was once the ace of their staff. Kazmir is still searching for the old form though as the lefty is 4-5 with a 5.86 ERA and very high 1.59 WHIP. Kazmir is coming off a 1-run performance against the Royals. However, that start was a bit decieving since he went only 5 2/3 innings, allowed five hits and four walks. In fact, Kazmir hasn't made it into the six inning in either of his last two starts. Ben Sheets will counter for the A's. Sheets, also a veteran, is looking for that form that made him a dominating factor for the Brewers. Sheets is 2-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. You have to go back to May 8th against Tampa Bay for the last time Sheets has got a win. Even though he hasn't been getting wins, it was that game against the Rays where Sheets has seen his game get better. Before May 8th, Sheets had allowed 17 earned runs the previous two games. Since then, he hasn't allowed more than four earned runs and has seen his ERA drop from 7.12 to 5.01. Two good teams, two veteran pitchers, but I give the nod here to the A's. I'm much more impressed with the way Sheets has come along than Kazmir. Lay the small price with the home club here, the A's.

Scott Spreitzer

Angels at Oakland
Pick: Angels

Don't look now, but here come the Halos, looking to claim the top spot in the AL West. It took the new-look Angels quite some time to get used to the new lineup, but the bats are really doing damage, now. The Angels just swept the Mariners, crushing Seattle pitching for 27 runs in three games. One of the reasons for the surge can be attributed to the end of the Brandon Wood experiment. I mentioned in a write-up the other day, that Chone Figgins' replacement had just 19 hits in 122 at-bats. Wood's replacement since going on the DL, has been cooking at the plate. Kevin Frandsen is hitting .417 in 14 games. And Maicer Izturis has filled-in nicely in the hot-box when Frandsen takes a night off. Tonight's pitching matchup features Scott Kazmir against Ben Sheets. Kazmir is beginning to regain the form that allows him to come over the top with his arm. Due to shoulder soreness, he was unable to do so for most of the first six weeks of the season. Kazmir threw well in his last start, and seems to always save his best for the A's, both overall, and at this venue. Sheets has looked strong for most of the season, but he has allowed 7 earned runs in his last two starts, spanning 13 innings, for a 4.85 ERA. He'll face a hot Angel batting order that's scored 39 runs and sports a .332 team batting average during their current five-game win streak. Round one in this series goes to the visitors. I'm playing the Angels on Monday night.

Bobby Maxwell

My FREE play runs sits at 103-84-3 and tonight I'm adding a winner to that total with a play on the Rangers as they host the Mariners in Arlington, Texas.

I’m going with the Rangers at home as they have been pounding the ball lately. They’ve scored six runs or more in four of their last five games, and won all four. Tonight they’ll get some runs off the Mariners and win the opener of this series.

Texas has Scott Feldman on the hill today and he’s 2-1 at home this season. He beat the Orioles in his last home start and earlier this season he faced these Mariners in Arlington and held them to two runs (one earned) on seven hits through seven innings of a 9-2 victory. In fact, the Rangers have won four of his last five starts against the Mariners, including each of the last three in Texas.

Cliff Lee goes for the Mariners and he’s been hit hard in his last four outings in Arlington, allowing a whopping 24 runs in just 23.2 innings, including an ugly outing last season that saw him give up seven runs on 10 hits in five innings of a 9-1 loss.

Seattle is just 7-20 in its last 27 road games, 5-17 against A.L. West foes and 1-4 on Monday. Texas is currently on several hot streaks, including 9-2 at home against teams with losing records, 19-7 at home overall, 13-6 when Feldman faces a losing team and 6-1 in series openers.

Texas has won each of the last four and the Rangers are 46-20 at home against Seattle. I’ll go with the Rangers to keep those streaks going and win this one behind Feldman. Play Texas.

2♦ TEXAS

BRETT ATKINS

I have a free winner coming your way today from the National League as I go with the Giants on the road in Cincinnati taking on the Reds.

Barry Zito has been pitching tremendously this season, other than that ugly start against his old mates in Oakland. He’s 6-2 on the year with a 2.78 ERA and he’s 2-1 on the road with the only loss coming in Oakland.

He faced the Rockies on Tuesday and held them to one run on four hits in seven innings, striking out eight. Zito beat the Reds twice last season, giving up two runs in 12 innings, including a stellar effort in Cincinnati when get blanked them for six innings, allowing just two hits in the 1-0 victory.

On the other side, the Reds Johnny Cueto was crushed on Tuesday by the Cardinals, giving up eight runs on 10 hits in five innings.

The Giants are 12-3 against N.L. Central teams while the Reds are just 8-21 against N.L. West squads. I’ll go with the plus-money on Zito in this one.

4♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Tom Freese

Seattle at Texas
Play Seattle

Seattle starter Cliff Lee has 3 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Lee has allowed 4 runs total in his last two starts. The Mariners are 14-6 their last 20 games as road favorites of -110 to -150. Seattle is 4-1 in the last 5 starts made by Lee. Texas starter Scott Feldman has allowed 4 or more run in his last 6 starts. The Rangers are 1-7 their 8 games as home underdogs. Texas is 3-7 with Feldman in his last 10 starts as a home underdog.

Brad Diamond Sports

Cincinnati

The Reds are coming off a huge road win in Washington, 5-4 in 10 innings. Showing back at home should be a huge lift for this club as they lead the National League in runs (166) and home runs (45) when playing in their beautiful ball park. Now the Reds catch the talented Giants who enter off a difficult road series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, I see an emotional letdown this evening, despite the Zito factor. Cincinnati has won 7 straight behind Cueto at home, as the hurler is 5-0 with a solid 3.27 ERA in this current stretch. Major edge finds the Giants facing Cueto for the first time in his career.

SPORTS WAGERS
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CINCINNATI –1½ +1.65 over San Francisco
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The Giants are warm but they’ve also beaten up on the Pirates and D-Backs to get them warm and they’re going to have to start beating some good teams to prove anything. In fact, of San Fran’s 25 wins, 19 of them have come against teams under .500 and that includes six wins over the Astros and four wins over the Pirates. They were also swept recently by both the A’s and by the D-Backs in the desert. So, with a 30-25 record and not a very good team the Giants are quite often overvalued and with a very ordinary Barry Zito going, they’re worth wagering against. Zito is having a strong year but his numbers will even out at some point and just like the team, he, too has faced some weak opposition. Zito has faced the Astros twice, the Pirates twice, the Dodgers in L.A., the Cardinals in San Fran and San Diego. So, yeah, he has good numbers and has benefitted large from pitching both at SBC Park and against some feeble line-ups. Zito has really not had a difficult assignment all year but does now. The Reds are 8-3 at home against southpaws and they’re 9-2 over its last 11 home games. Cinci is also first in the NL in runs scored homers and team batting average. The Giants have never seen Johnny Cueto and that has to work in his favor. Cueto has wicked stuff and by the time the Giants figure him out, that’s if they figure him out, they might be down by six runs. Anyway, the Giants are not impressive at all so don’t be fooled by its 30-25 record. Against good teams they’ll be exposed as imposters and it starts right here. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.65 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +1.17 over ARIZONA
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The Snakes are favored here on Dan Harens’ reputation and while Haren is coming off a gem, that gem came in Los Angeles where many struggling or very average pitchers could look very good. That’s not to say Haren is a stiff because he can pitch well but he’s lost some of what he’s had in the past and his numbers at home tell a story indeed. In fact, this year at Chase Field he’s been tagged for a 9 jacks in just 34 IP. He’s also allowed 40 hits over that stretch and overall he’s allowed 93 hits and 16 bombs in 83 IP. Haren is also coming off a 126-pitch performance and the last time he faced the Braves back on May 16, he was ripped apart for eight hits and seven runs in four innings. In addition, the Braves have led the NL in scoring since May 1. By contrast, the Diamondbacks have averaged 2½ runs over their last 12 games, thanks in part to slumps from Kelly Johnson and Mark Reynolds. Derek Lowe is the type of pitcher that can have a big game at this park because he keeps the ball down and if his slider is on, he’s tough as shoe leather. Lowe has kept his GB% near 60% since the beginning of May and that’s one of the best marks in the majors over the last five weeks. The Braves remain one of the hottest teams in the majors with 25 wins over its last 34 games. Give zero edge to the home team in this one. Play: Atlanta +1.17 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Cleveland Indians

Boston looked like it was going to sweep the Orioles following the first two games of the three-game set over the weekend but Baltimore held strong on Sunday and won in extra innings. The loss snapped a seven-game road winning streak for the Red Sox who were a very average team away from home prior to that run. Cleveland returns home following a successful end to its roadtrip where it won the weekend series in Chicago and was a one-run loss away from completing the sweep. It has been a tough season for the Indians but I like the price here as I would be hesitant in backing Daisuke Matsuzaka as a favorite, especially on the road. He is coming off a quality start against Oakland where he allowed three runs in 6.2 innings but he still allowed 10 hits and things could have been worse. In his start prior to that he allowed the same amount of runs against the Royals but it was in just 4.2 innings and came with eight walks issued. He has been everywhere this season to being near flawless to being a disaster and you never know what you are going to get. He goes up against Fausto Carmona who was on the wrong side of the Armando Galarraga near-perfect game. Lost in that was a solid performance from Carmona who allowed three runs in eight innings for his eighth quality outings in 11 starts this season. He has a 3.53 ERA on the year and he really has just one bad outings which came against the Twins where he allowed six runs in six innings and his ERA drops to 3.03 in his other 10 games. That game against Minnesota was at home which has inflated him home ERA as his four other stats have been quality performances. He has been up and down against Boston but it depends on the venue as he has a 40.50 ERA in three starts at Fenway Park but he has a 1.23 ERA in two starts at home. Cleveland falls into a solid underdog situation as well. Play against road favorites of -150 or less that are hitting .315 or better over their last five games going up against an opponent with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 33-15 (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Cleveland Indians

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians

We suggest a play on the Under in the Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Indians matchup tonight. The pitching matchup is a pair of righties in Daisuke Matsuzaka and Fausto Carmona. Both have pitched well recently. Dice-K’s last three starts have been good ones as they allowed just six runs in nearly 20 innings of work and match that with an Indians offense that averages just 3.8 runs per game against right-handed pitching. Carmona is having a nice season despite his record. He has a 3.53 ERA in 11 starts.

Play on: Under