John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
5* graded play on Arizona as they take on Atlanta set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Arizona will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 32-11 making 22.6 units since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is a slumping hitting team batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games facing an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Arizona starter Dan Haren is a solid 30-11 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. Haren is an excellent starter, who has been struggling, but did put in an excellent last start going 8 innings and allowing 0 ER, 0 walks and recorded 8 K’s. That will certainly carry over to this game against a Braves team that is cooling off and hits just 247 in road games. Haren will look to work low and away to RH batters, but works both corners against LH batters. He throws four pitches and can throw any of them for strikes, which is what he id successfully in his last start. he is not a pitcher that needs to get ahead in the count. Most starters will throw FB 75+% for the time when behind in the count. Haren throws FB 63% of the time and also will mix in a curve 10% and slider 21%. This does not allow batters to sit on pitches, especially the FB. His best pitch is his slider and he can use it as an out pitch or throw it on a first pitch strike. Look for Haren to go another 7 innings minimum and dominate the Braves offense. take Arizona.
BEN BURNS
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
I won with the A's yesterday, as they closed out their series against the Twins with a victory. I feel that they've got a solid shot at following up that win with another victory here.
Sheets has some pretty poor stats overall. However, he's really come around lately. Over his last three starts, he's got a very respectable 3.32 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. Additionally, a closer look reveals that his trouble has come on the road and that he's been extremely sharp at home. In six home starts, Sheets has gone 2-1 with a stellar 2.50 ERA. The A's have won four of those games.
On the other hand, Kazmir has really struggled away from LA. He's made six road starts and has gone 2-3 (Angels are 2-4) with a poor 5.82 ERA and 1.647 WHIP.
Note that the A's relievers have a combined 2.99 ERA and 1.129 WHIP at home. Conversely, the Angels' relievers have an ugly 5.60 ERA and 1.784 WHIP on the road. Given those advantages, I feel that the current price is very reasonable. Consider Oakland
TEDDY COVERS
Red Sox @ Indians
PICK: Under 9
On a cool night in Cleveland, with the wind blowing in from right center, look for both offenses to struggle. Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona has been consistently terrific, with eight quality starts in his first eleven outings. After struggling mightily with his control over the last two years, Carmona has only walked 17 batters in his last nine trips to the hill.
Carmona is also keeping the ball down – more than twice as many ground ball outs as fly ball outs in his last four starts. And, after facing numerous hot hitting lineups in the last month - -including the Yankees, Rays, Tigers, Blue Jays and Reds – Boston’s lineup is not a step up in class. It’s surely worth noting that Carmona has dominated the Red Sox in both previous home starts against them with a 1.23 ERA in those ballgames.
Dice-K hasn’t been as consistent as Carmona, but his confusing repertoire of pitches is a nightmare for a young, light hitting lineup like the Indians. He’s held opposing lineups to three hits or less in three of his last five starts, and threw eight innings of one hit ball against the Phillies in his last road outing. In the AL, only Seattle and Baltimore have scored fewer runs than the Tribe this year, while Boston’s bullpen is relatively fresh and ready to close this game out without shenanigans in the latter stages. 2* Take the Under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -147
The Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 road games, and I expect their winning ways to continue in Cleveland where they have won 5 of their last 6. The Indians have lost each of Carmona's last 4 starts and 6 of his last 7. It is also worth noting how bad Cleveland has been in series openers, dropping 22 of their last 27 game 1's. The Red Sox are a ridiculous 74-35 in their last 109 vs. the American League Central and they are 12-3 in Matsuzaka's last 15 starts as a road favorite. Take the Red Sox tonight.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +116
Angels' starter Scott Kazmir has owned the Oakland A's, going 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA and a 1.220 WHIP in 14 career starts vs. Oakland. Kazmir has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his last 8 starts at Oakland, including 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 road starts vs. the A's. Not to mention 5 of those 8 road starts have seen Kazmir give up 1 or less earned runs, and he has pitched 11 shutout innings in his last 2 road outing vs. the A's. Oakland starter Ben Sheets did face the Angels once this season, allowing 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 6 innings of a 3-4 loss.
Los Angeles is playing their best baseball of the season right now, going 8-1 in their last 9 games and winners of 5 straight heading into Game 1 of this series with Oakland. The A's are scoring just 3.8 RPG against left-handed starters this season, while the Angels are putting up 5.1 RPG against right-handed starters this year. Los Angeles is 27-11 against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 27-9 against the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Finally, L.A. is a perfect 11-0 against the money line after a game where they had 17 or more hits over the last 3 seasons. They are coming back to win their next game by an average of 7.7 to 3.5 RPG in these spots. The Angels are red hot at the plate, getting double-digit hits in 6 of their last 8 contests, including 18 hits against the Mariners yesterday. Take Los Angeles Monday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +117
With the way LeBlanc has been shelled lately, I like the Phillies on the run line here. LeBlanc is 0-3 with an ERA of 9.00 over his last 3 starts, and the Padres have lost each of those 3 starts by at least 2 runs. Hamels has been terrific at home, going 3-1 (4-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.94, and each of his last 2 home wins have come by at least 2 runs. It is also important to note that plays against road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more, with a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, if they are a poor power team averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, are 70-17 the last 5 seasons. Teams falling into this situation are losing by an average of 2.8 runs per game. The Phillies have won 7 of their last 8 against the Padres and I expect this dominance to continue with a win on the run line this evening.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Texas Rangers +105
The Mariners are just 7-20 in their last 27 road games. They have lost 4 straight to Texas and they are a poor 5-18 in their last 23 vs. the division. With this in mind, I don't even think Cliff Lee will be able to save Seattle here, especially when you consider that the Rangers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Rangers have won 13 of their last 17 at home and 4 of Feldman's last 5 starts against the Mariners. I'll take Texas tonight.
Glenn McGrew
Red Sox at Indians
The Red Sox have a strong offense and Cleveland is a very good offensive park. A pair of pitchers are on the mound who can’t throw strikes. Cleveland righty Fausto Carmona has been good this season, but his sinker can dart out of the strike zone and patient Boston loves to draw walks off him. He has a 5.94 ERA against the Red Sox. And Dice-K Matsuzaka may have a 4-2 mark, but he’s been wild, with a 5.49 ERA walking 21 in 41 innings (12 his last 19 innings). Look for an offensive show; Play the Red Sox/Indians Over the total.
Sac Lawson
ARI (-125) vs ATL
Oh yeah, I know we all like how Derek Lowe has pitched lately, and we all think it can continue. Trust me, it can. The guy is a fantastic big league pitcher. That being said, this line tells me all I need to know. I don't talk about the breakeven line for vegas as much as I did during basketball, but this is a situation that really stands out to me. Vegas could have made this line -110 for Atlanta, and received even money. They know that, and I know that. Instead they made Arizona a favorite and gladly accepted Atlanta dog money.
Now stick with me... This is another key indicator that not many people look for daily. The Dime Line Adjustment... You'll notice that not many books release opening lines at dime lines, most of them are 20 cent lines. So it's a telling indicator which side of the bet gets the dime line adjustment. In this case. We had +105 on Atlanta, and -125 on Arizona. at 8:45am, the dime line adjusted to +115 Atlanta. Keep in mind, this is even after they received the vast majority of their incoming bets on the Braves today... yet they still give Atlanta the dime line support??
Anytime that happens it raises a red flag for me. Another red flag raiser... The total. With how well Derek Lowe is pitching, a total around 9 tells me either him or Dan Haren will be garbage today. And seeing the side line move the way it did, leaves me extremely confident it'll be Derek Lowe on the losing end.
OAK (-125) vs ANA
This one is a bit awkward. Mainly because LAA absolutely owns Oakland, especially in Oakland. They've won a great number of games in a row there, and quite frankly this is a team that is surging like crazy. Their bullpen is pitching well, and their bats have come to life. Yet, they are an underdog?? Believe it or not, it's justified. Ben Sheets has pitched pretty well his last few starts, but he's been exceptional at home all season. Sheets is 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA at home this season.
On the other side, Kazmir has definitely struggled this season. And a lot of his struggles are stemmed from walks. This Oakland team is a squad that is getting their timely hits right now, especially at home. You simply cannot give them the luxury of free passes. Kazmir will do that.
At the end of the day, I'm keeping it simple. Oakland is a fantastic home team, and the bullpens are probably evenly matched in this one (considering how solid LA's has been lately). But, I'll take Sheets over Kazmir, that's what it comes down to. And I'll take Oakland playing in their home park to plate some runs when it matters most.
Nelly
San Francisco / Cincinnati Under
Barry Zito continues to deliver remarkably consistent results this season with a season ERA of 2.78. His numbers are even better on the road with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. The 'under' is 4-0 in Zito road starts and 8-2 overall in his outings this season. Only once all season has Zito allowed more than three earned runs and for the season opposing batters own a .209 batting average. Johnny Cueto was rocked in his last start but the Reds still won, now having won each of his last seven starts. Cueto had delivered five consecutive quality starts prior to last week’s rough start and in home games he owns a 3.19 ERA. The Giants have an outstanding bullpen and the 'under' is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these teams.
Black Widow
1* on Cincinnati Reds -129
The Reds have been excellent this season and they've had starter Barry Zito's number. Zito owns a career 7.13 ERA vs. Cincinnati, while Johnny Cueto has never faced the Giants which gives him a big edge over San Francisco's hitters in this one. Cincinnati has won seven straight starts by Cueto (5-1, 4.09 ERA), who is 5-0 with a 3.27 ERA in that span. That includes a 2-0 mark with a 1.89 ERA in his last three home starts. Cincinnati (33-24) leads the NL in numerous offensive categories at home, including runs (166), homers (45), batting average (.291) and slugging percentage (.487). The Reds are 19-11 at Great American Ball Park. Zito and the Giants will have their hands full tonight to say the least. Plus, the Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Cincinnati on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox -145
Reasons the Red Sox win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 43-9 ML System hitting 82.7% since 1997. This system is 1-0 this season.
2.) Fausto Carmona sports a 7.06 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Daisuke Matsuzaka is rounding into form, going 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Red Sox are 12-3 in Matsuzaka's last 15 starts listed as a favorite on the road. Bet Boston on the road.