Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday, May 20

JEFF BENTON

Monday freebie is the Twins-Braves Under the total.

Minnesota heads south to Turner Field having played Under the total in 4 of their last 7 games, while Atlanta is on a protracted 35-16-1 Under run their last 52 games played at Turner Field, including a 4-2-1 Under clip their last 7 games played overall.

Minny starter Kevin Correia has been slumping of late, but perhaps a return to the National League against a team he is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA against will help him regain his form.

Braves hurler Julio Teheran sports a 2.84 ERA over his last 4 starts, and should be able to keep the Twins bats off-balance tonight.

Twins-Braves to hold low on Monday night.

3* MINNESOTA-ATLANTA UNDER

BIG CHIEF

Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians will look for the four game sweep on Monday afternoon while the Seattle Mariners will look to salvage a game from a horrible weekend.

Seattle will send Hisashi Iwakuma & his 1.84 ERA and 0.78 WHIP to the mound. Iwakuma has only given up more than 2 runs once in 9 starts. Opposing hitters are batting a measly .183 against the righty. Over his last 3 starts spanning 21 innings he has a 2.14 ERA with 3 walks & 18 strikeouts. He will look to build off those performances and help get Seattle into the win column.

Cleveland will send Scott Kazmir to the mound. Kazmir will try and rebound from his last outing where he gave up 4 runs in 5 innings. The two starts previous to that where quality starts and he had a 3 game streak of allowing 2 runs or less. If you take out Kazmir's first start of the season he has been pretty solid. Both of his quality starts were at home where he went 12 innings, 10 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk and 17 strikeouts. Today he will be at home on a get away day facing a team that has been ice cold at the plate. In this series Seattle is hitting .225 and is 1-20 RISP.

The scores in this series have been a little misleading. We will need a solid effort from our pens, however, if each starter gets us a quality start like I suspect than the top relievers will be ready and able. Game one was 3-3 after six. It stayed that way until a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 10th. Game 2 saw 5 runs scored between the two teams in the 8th and 9th inning. In Game 3 Brantley hit a 2-out 3 run homer to make it 5-0 in the bottom of the second. That would be it other than a lone run in the 4th. With the early start on Monday and with it being get away day for both teams I like the UNDER.

3* PICK: UNDER 8

CRAIG DAVIS

For Monday, free play winner is the Cleveland Indians.

The Indians are attempting to do something they haven't done in 32 years... sweep a series with the Seattle Mariners.

With three straight wins under their belt, the Indians just need a win this afternoon to pull it off and keep their lead in the AL Central.

Surpringly, the Indians jumped on Felix Hernandez early Sunday and blanked the M's 6-0. They somehow managed five runs in the first two innings and that was plenty of support for Justin Masterson who has been pitching very well this year.

Next up to face this Cleveland offense is Hisashi Iwakuma and his 5-1 record and 1.84 ERA. That's why we're getting such tremendous line value... the appearance of a potential stud pitcher makes this money line a lot more affordable.

Iwakuma gave up just two runs over seven innings in his last start when he beat the NY Yankees Wednesday. But all good things must come to an end and this guy is eventually going to come back down to earth.

That day is today.

Cleveland has won five straight over Seattle at home as they continue their dominance over sub .500 teams at Progressive Field.

I'm backing Cleveand as your free play of the day.

2* CLEVELAND

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals at Houston AstrosSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals and Astros open a three-game set in Houston Monday night where Jeremy Guthrie toes the slab for Kansas City looking to improve on his 16-3 recent mark in his last nineteen team starts. Guthrie is also 3-0 in his career team starts against the Astros. With Houston 8-24 under the lights at night this season, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Jimmy Boyd

Seattle Mariners -107

The Indians have a .241 batting average over their past 7 games. They will face Seattle’s ace in today’s game as Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound. Iwakuma has a 5-1 record this season with a 1.84 ERA. He faced the Indians once last season taking a no decision and posting a 1.59 ERA in a game won by Seattle.

Scott Kazmir is not having the season many Cleveland fans expected. He has posted a 5.33 ERA and a 2-2 record in 5 starts. With Kazmir struggling the Indians will be in big trouble considering Seattle is batting .271 as a team over their past 7 games. In that same span they have averaged 4.9 runs per game and have a .345 on base percentage. The Mariners should have no problem building and holding onto the lead against the Indians today.

Matt Fargo

Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox

The Red Sox lost their opener on this roadtrip at Tampa Bay but when on to win the final two games of that series and then swept the Twins over the weekend to make it five straight victories. They are now 14-7 on the road for the season which is tied with the Cardinals for the best road record in baseball. They continue to be the surprise in baseball while Jon Lester continues his solid comeback. After posting a 4.82 ERA in 33 starts last season, he has come strong out of the gate this year and has not slowed up. He has a 2.72 ERA through nine starts and has yet to lose, going 6-0 with the Red Sox going 7-2 in his nine outings. It may not seem plausible to go against him but he has had his share of troubles against the White Sox as he has a 5.20 career ERA against them including a 7.22 ERA in the last five. Chicago opened its most recent roadtrip with a 4-1 record but lost the final two games against the Angels as the pitching was pounded for 18 runs over the weekend after allowing just 10 runs total in its previous four games. Overall, the pitching has been the strength as the White Sox have a 3.12 ERA at home including a 2.86 ERA from the starters. Dylan Axelrod is part of that success as he has a 3.42 ERA at home in four starts with only one of those being a bad outing. His first three starts at home resulted in a 2.04 ERA and he came up just one-third of an inning short in his opener for all three of those resulting in quality starts. He faced Boston once last season and allowed just one run on seven hits in 6.2 innings. Going back to last season, he has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers will look to put an end to their losing streak tonight and they have the Man on the mound to do it. Clayton Kershaw goes for LA and he has a stellar 1.40 era this season. In his last start here he went 8 score less innings. Tonight he will oppose Y. Gallardo who has yet to hit his best stride. Gallardo has a 4.50 Home era and 5.09 over his last 3 starts. His Life time era vs the Dodgers is also elevated at 6.21. The Dodgers fit a nice 75% system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a road loss and scored 2 or less runs with 4 or less hits, vs an opponent off a road loss that had 10 or more hits. The Dodgers have won 5 of the last 7 here. The Brewers are in the midst of a rough month going 3-14 in May. In games vs left handed pitchers they are 4-12. We will go with the better numbers here and Take the Dodgers as our free play.

Art Aronson

Oakland vs. Texas
Play: Over 9½

The 39-year old Bartolo Colon (3-2, 4.56 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors; Colon faced the Rangers last Tuesday and gave up three runs off four hits with a walk and zero K's over six frames of work, settling for a no-decision in the end. The veteran will be opposed by the 25-year old Josh Lindblom (3-5, 3.55 ERA) who was called up from Triple-A Round Rock after Alexi Ogando was moved to the DL. Lindblom had success in the minors but has yet to prove himself in any extended manner in the bigs. Note that the A's have seen the total go "over" the number in 29 of 44 so far this year, which includes in 15 of 22 on the road. Suspect starters vs. explosive line-ups; the stage is set for a slugfest in the opener of this three game set.

Jim Feist

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Our play against the Yankees Sunday got rained out, but we are coming right back and going against them here on Monday. Not really sure how they have done it, but the Yankees are in first place in the AL East. They have accomplished this without most of their star players, who remain on the injured list. One thing is for sure, it's not a dominant hitting attack, as the Yankees are sixth from the bottom of the AL in runs/game (4.21) and below the league average in batting average (.252). Pitching has been good for the Yankees, ranked 2nd in the league in ERA (3.74) and fifth in WHIP (1.258). Still the injuries mount for NY. With Kevin Youklis (15 dl), Derek Jeter (60 day DL), Alex Rodriquez (60 day DL), Mark Teixeira (60 day DL) all still missing from the lineup. Now the pitching staff has seen Andy Pettitte (Trap) and IVan Nov (Tricep) also land on the 15-day DL. The Orioles had a very good April, going 16-11 and staying close to first place in the AL East. However, May hasn't been as kind, seeing the O's go just 7-9 and losers of five straight after Sunday's setback to the Rays, 3-1. Still, big edge here today in hitting to the O's who are 3rd in baseball in runs scored, fifth in batting average and fifth in slugging. Like I said yesterday, the Yankees are not going to run away from anyone with their offense. So we have value with the O's knowing they will be in this one to the end. Take Baltimore here on Monday.

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Cincinnati Reds at New York MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mets are back home following a pretty good finish to their road trip, as they won three of the final four. As for the Reds, their normally tough bullpen was way off this weekend, and as a result Cincinnati took two late losses at Philadelphia.
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Tonight marks the return of Johnny Cueto from his disabled list stint, and Cueto has been chomping at the bit to get back in action. But he'll be doing so against a lineup that has given him a load of trouble for some reason. The probable Mets starters on Monday night are a collective 23-65 with two HR against Cueto. I'm also factoring the suddenly slumping Reds bullpen into this mix, as they're a little off their stride right now.
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The Mets have Shaun Marcum on the bump tonight and he's off his best start of the season. The Mets eventually lost that game at St. Louis, but Marcum pitched well enough to win. He is definitely not a dominant pitcher, and Marcum's mistakes are going to get hit. He's done reasonably well against the guys he likely faces here, with the probable Reds weighing in at 18/65, 1 HR against Marcum. Also, Marcum might finally be getting a little bit of a correction on what is presently a bloated BABIP.
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The team data is somewhat significant here. No doubt the Reds are the clearly superior team, but they're still currently a losing team on the road. Sub-.500 road teams should generally not be laying in the -160 neighborhood unless they're facing a team that is really horrendous. The Mets are not good by any means, but they're also not the Marlins or Astros.
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I would put this in the value category. Meaning, the Reds deserve to be favored, but not by this much. The Reds deserve to be the chalk here, but I see the number being about 20 cents higher than it ought to be. That's enough to get me interested in the Mets as a live home dog tonight.

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Arizona at ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Acknowledge the problems that Arizona starter Patrick Corbin had last season at Coors Field, where his ERA was north of 11.00 in two non-winning starts. But this is 2013, not 2012, and few have been as successful thus far as has Corbin (6-0, 1.52 ERA), especially considering the D-backs have won in all eight of his previous starts. One of those was April 28 against the Rockies in Phoenix, a 4-2 Arizona win in which Corbin allowed only 2 runs in 6 2/3 IP. Conversely, host Colorado has lost in 4 of Jon Garland's last five starts (including the earlier defeat vs. Corbin) , and opposing batters are hitting Garland to the tune of a .307 BA thus far. Play D-backs on Money Line

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Kansas City vs. HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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One of my Saturday winners (Oakland) came at the expense of the Kansas City Royals, who would eventually get swept by the A's, scoring only five total runs in the process. They certainly seem to have a more favorable opponent to start the week, but don't be surprised to see fewer runs scored than expected in Monday's opener....
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KC will send Jeremy Guthrie out to the mound tonight. He should have no problem containing an Astros lineup that was shut out yesterday in Pittsburgh, losing for the 7th time in 9 games. While Guthrie is coming off his worst showing of 2013 last time out, his overall numbers remain impressive; he's 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA over eight starts. He's also never lost to Houston in three career outings, turning in a 3.68 ERA and 1.045 WHIP. Two of those starts came last year.
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The problem with taking the Royals here though is the fact their offense is struggling mightily right now and that they average only 2.9 runs per game vs. lefties. That should give Houston southpaw Dallas Keuchel a decent shot at a quality outing. The Royals, like the Astros, come into this series having lost 7 of 9. In those seven losses, the Kansas City offense has scored a grand total of 17 runs. This game could easily turn into a pitcher's duel with the two inept offenses.

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Philadelphia vs. MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It doesn't take much to want to play against the Miami Marlins, and with Cole Hamels starting Monday, the Phillies look like an easy winner. The fact that the Fish are off a rare win Sunday makes things even more enticing as there have been only two instances all season that they have been on a win streak.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Hamels - How has he lost to the Marlins, not once, but twice this season? Miami has only 12 wins all year! Hamels has certainly been a hard luck loser both starts as he's allowed just three runs in 14 innings. That's been the story of his career vs. Miami as Hamels career ERA vs. this division rival is 3.24, yet his TSR is 10-16 in 26 starts. Look for that to change here. It's incredible that Hamels has only one win in eight starts. Miami is averaging a pathetic 1.4 runs per game this season vs. left-handers!
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2. Marlins' Woes - There are many to report. Before yesterday's 2-1 win over Arizona, the team had lost seven straight and 10 of its last 11. They'd been shut out four times during that span and held to three runs or less in every loss. Offensively, this team is beyond abysmal, averaging only 2.7 runs per game while batting .221. They are just 6-16 at home and 3-12 vs. lefties. What a horrible team.
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3. X-Factor - Marlins starter Alex Sanabia is 0-3 with a 5.28 ERA his last three starts. He's allowed four runs in all of those starts while failing to go more than six innings.

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LA Dodgers vs. MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: LA DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Dodgers were swept in a three game series in Atlanta, and they are in Milwaukee tonight take play Game 1 of a three game series with the Brewers.
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Milwaukee has also been struggling, with just one win in it's last six games. It doesn't get any easier tonight, with Clayton Kershaw on the hill for the Dodgers.
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Kershaw (4-2, 1.40 ERA) has been as good as any pitcher in the majors this season, but he's often been a victim of a lack of run support. He seems to have a solution for that though, as ALL four of his wins have been shutouts.
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He was one out away from the complete game shutout in his last start, racking up 11 strikeouts in a 2-0 win over Washington.
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His last start at Miller Park was a similar story, tossing eight scoreless innings in a victory.
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The Brewers will counter with Yovanni Gallardo, who has lost consecutive starts. Gallardo (3-3, 4.50 ERA) has allowed five runs on eight hits over 10 innings in his last two starts, but he's also walked nine batters.
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Adrian Gonzalez hasn't been fooled by Gallardo in past meetings, going 4-for-11 with a home run lifetime.
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The Dodgers are pretty terrible at the plate, but if they can get any runs at all you have to like their chances with Kershaw on the mound.