Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Miami
Pick: Miami +1.5
The wins haven't come easy for either team here, and neither have the runs. The Phillies offense, once one of the best in baseball, has aged into becoming sub-par as they have scored three runs or less in 24 games on the season, making them a ripe candidate on the road to fade on the runline. The Phillies have already been shutout six times on the season. The Marlins' pitching has been superb, allowing a single run in each of their last two games, and the Phillies have been brutal behind Hamels, where they are 1-8 in his last nine starts, and 0-6 vs. a team that scored two or less in their last game. The Marlins are 5-0 behind Sanbia when he pitches following his team allowing two or less in their last game. Runs will be at a premium here, play on Miami on the runline.
MLB Predictions
Texas Rangers -1.5
The Oakland A's will head to Texas after sweeping the Royals in Oakland over the weekend. Although they won 3 straight they scored just 8 runs over those three games and they've lost 8 of their last 13 games overall. They are 23-22 on the season and 10-12 on the road. Texas took 3 of 4 against a solid Tigers team this weekend and they've now won 5 of their last 6 to improve to an AL best 29-15 on the season and 14-5 at home. These two teams met last week in Oakland with the Rangers winning 2 of 3. Texas is 3rd in the MLB with 94 runs in May compared to the A's who are 29th with just 49 runs. As a team the Rangers are hitting .290 in May (2nd) and the Athletics are hitting just .219 (29th). Oakland will send Bartolo Colon to the mound tonight who is 3-2 with a 4.56 ERA, .272 OBA and 1.10 WHIP over his 8 starts. He faced Texas last week and gave up 3 earned runs over 6 innings of work. He started the year off solid, but over his last 3 games he is 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA. Texas will hand the ball to Josh Lindblom who will make his first Major League start (he has appeared in 101 games as a reliever). So far in Triple-A this year he has 8 appearances (7 starts) and has posted a 4-0 record, 2.08 ERA, .173 OBA and 0.88 WHIP. Last year in relief he was 3-5 with a 3.55 ERA, .232 OBA and 1.35 WHIP with time between Philly and the Dodgers. Note that 9 of the Rangers last 12 wins have been by 2+ runs including their last 4 victories. The Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 16-5 in their last 21 vs divisional opponents. They are also 13-5 in their last 18 home games vs Oakland. Right now Texas has very hot bats, while the same can't be said for Oakland. Given Colon's recent struggles I think the Rangers can tag him for a handful of runs tonight. I like the run line here getting a nice +161 for Texas to win by 2+.
Larry Ness
Arizona vs. Colorado
Pick: Arizona
Patrick Corbin may be ‘flying under the radar’ nationally but Arizona Diamondback fans and sports bettors are WELL AWARE of how well this second-year lefty has pitched in 2013. Corbin has gone at least six innings and allowed two or ERs in each of his EIGHT outings in 2013, posting a 1.52 ERA (3rd-best in MLB) and a 6-0 record (Arizona is 8-0 in his starts, for a plus-$865 moneyline mark). He’s won four consecutive starts and the Diamondbacks, winners of nine of their last 13 games, have won 10 of his last 11 starts dating back to last season.
Colorado comes into this contest off three straight wins at home over the Giants. The Rockies lost 8-6 to the defending champs on Thursday but then won 10-9, 10-2 and 5-0 the next three days. Jon Garland is 3-4 with a 4.89 ERA in 2013 team is 4-4 in his starts) and will be facing Arizona for the second time this season (he allowed four runs, three earned, over six innings in a 4-2 on April 28). Garland is 4-2 with a 4.50 ERA in seven career starts at Coors Field and 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA in nine career starts vs Arizona (teams are 4-5).
The Diamondbacks are averaging just 2.7 runs in their past 11 games and 3.5 in their past 32, but still find themselves at 25-19 and in first-place in the NL West. Until he loses, I’m backing Corbin when the price is reasonable. That’s the case tonight.
Steve Janus
St Louis Cardinals -138
The Cardinals come into this game having won 8 of their last 11 games overall and are currently an NL-best 28-15 on the season. St Louis has got off to a strong start behind one of the best starting rotations in baseball. One of the big surprises has been how well youngster Shelby Miller has performed early on. In eight starts, Miller is 5-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. What's important here is he has been equally dominant on the road, where he has a 3-1 record with a 1.87 ERA. In his last three starts combined, Miller has allowed one earned run on a mere 12 hits over 21 2/3 innings of work.
San Diego will counter with Jason Marquis, who has pitched well of late with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts. However, I think Marquis has been extremely fortunate in the early stages of the season. His 1.347 WHIP is extremely high and for a pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of batters, its only a matter of time before he gets torched for a big number. Given how the Cardinals are swinging the bats, there's a good chance that comes tonight. St Louis has scored 15 runs on an impressive 32 hits over their last 3 games. That adds up to an average of 5 runs and nearly 11 hits per game. With Miller on the mound, if they come anywhere close to that they should win this game easily.
Jeff Alexander
Mets +140
I expect to see some rust from Cueto, who's been on the shelf for more than a month. Plus, he doesn't have a good track record against the Mets (1-3 with a 5.45 ERA in 6 starts). Marcum is 1-1 with a 3.42 ERA in 4 starts versus Cincy. He's had some problems this season but enters off a strong outing in St. Louis, which should do wonders for his confidence. Also, New York carries some much needed momentum into this series after winning 3 of their last 4. Bet the Mets.
Dave Price
Dodgers -126
The Dodgers have the edge on the mound with Kershaw, who is in far better form than Gallardo. The sensational southpaw has a 1.40 ERA on the season and a 0.79 ERA over his last 3 starts. Gallardo has a 4.50 ERA on the season and a 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Brewers are only 4-13 against lefty starters this season as they're averaging just 3.4 runs in those games. The Dodgers are 39-16 in Kershaw's last 55 starts as a favorite while the Brewers are 7-23 in Gallardo's last 30 starts as an underdog. Take the Dodgers.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals +128
The Washington Nationals are showing solid value as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight. Given how poorly Ryan Vogelsong has pitched this season, the Giants should not be the favorite in this one.
Vogelsong has gone 1-4 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.839 WHIP in eight starts for San Francisco in 2013. He is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in four home starts, and 0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in his last three starts overall.
Washington is 56-31 (+18.5 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 23-8 (+13.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. Bet the Nationals Monday.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT/Chicago over 5 +104
Perhaps the best thing that happened to the Blackhawks was that 4-1 loss in Game 2. Chicago has not been challenged in these playoffs yet. They cruised by the Wild in the first round and barely broke a sweat in doing so. In the first game of this series, Chicago was soundly outplayed but won again 4-1. The Blackhawks took a 1-0 lead in Game 2 and it looked like it was going to be another ho-hum win. But as fate would have it, the Red Wings stuck with it and went on to win 4-1 to tie this series up. For the first time all season, including the 48-game regular season schedule, the Blackhawks are facing a little adversity as the series shifts to Hockeytown USA. The winner of both games so far has scored four goals. The last time the Blackhawks played in Detroit, they scored seven times. Both teams are loaded with elite offensive talent. Detroit’s defense is prone to making some serious miscues and Chicago’s goaltending is not its strong suit.
With so much offense on both sides, expect the scoring chances in this one to be plentiful. Corey Crawford was uncharacteristically incredible in Game 1 yet there were still five goals scored in the game. Crawford went back to being Corey Crawford in Game 2. The real key here for this to go over is the Blackhawks. Jonathan Toews is going to come back even stronger and won't let Henrik Zetterberg physically dominate him like he did in Chicago. An aggressive, physical forecheck is crucial to beat Chicago but the Blackhawks' defense is so mobile that one quick pass can trap multiple players. If Detroit is a split second late, Chicago will blow right by them. It's why the Blackhawks are the best team in the league and why it's hard to put together back-to-back efforts like the Red Wings did Saturday against them. In Detroit, the Red Wings don’t get shut out and rarely score less than two goals. The Blackhawks rarely score less than two no matter where they play and that sets this one up nicely to go over the number.
NHL Predictions
Chicago Blackhawks -130)
The Red Wings surprised everyone out playing the Blackhawks in Chicago on Saturday and winning 4-1. The Blackhawks will now head into Detroit looking for at least a split in Games 3 and 4. Chicago is 19-4-3 on the season on the road, including going 1-1 in Minnesota, with the loss being a 3-2 overtime loss where they outshot Minnesota 37-27. Chicago has already beaten Detroit 2-1 and 7-1 in Detroit this year, and they are now 5-1 against the Red Wings this season. I'll lay a bit of chalk and go with the Blackhawks to bounce back with a much better effort and win Game 3 to go up 2-1.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Cincinnati/ NY Mets Over 7.5: Johnny Cueto is back for the Reds, but the Mets haven't been a great team for him to pitch against as he has a 4.45 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. The Mets are struggling offensively, but still the average 3.86 rpg at home and have scored 4.53 rp/9 off of righties at home. Their offenses should be good for 3 or 4 runs in this one, while the Reds offense does the rest. Cincinnati has been hot offensively, scoring 5.4 rpg and hitting .272 in their last to games. The Reds offense should continue their hot hitting vs a struggling Shaun Marcum, who is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA on the year overall, including 0-3 with a 6.40 ERA in 4 starts this year. Shaun has made 2 home starts this year and has a 9.35 ERA in those starts, with the two games averaging 11.5 rpg. Combined these teams have gone 51-32 to the over this year, while the Mets have gone 15-6 to the Over in their last 21 games as a dog and 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 road games have gone over as well. At least 9 runs in this one.
St Louis/ San Diego Over 7: Shelby Miller is in a groove, but how much longer can he really keep it up? He has an 0-.44 ERA in his last 3 starts, but I expect a very hot Padres offense to tag him for a few in this one. Usually you don't see the word "Hot" connected with the San Diego offense, but that's exactly what they are. The Padres have averaged 4.6 rpg in their last 10 games and 6 rpg in their last 5. The last 2 years t home tis Padres team scored 3.83 rpg and 3.15 rpg, but with the fences moved in this year they have put up 4.23 rpg in their home games so far. The Cardinals have been a good offensive team all year long, averaging 4.67 rpg overall, including 5 rpg on the road. Today they take on Jason Marquis, who has a 5.10 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. Jason has pitched well this year, with a 3.49 ERA overall, but he has a 4.15 ERA in 5 home starts this year and a 5.01 ERA in 4 night starts, so this Cardinals offenses should be good for at least 5 runs in this one. Both offenses are playing well and Marquis struggles in this park, while Miller is due to get hit a bit. I expect at least 3 runs from each squad here so at the very worse we would get a push.
LA Dodgers -135 over MILWAUKEE: Great situational spot for LA in this one. Fist we have a Milwaukee squad that is off a 10 game road trip, and we know that teams generally don't do all that well in first games back from long trips. Next we have a Milwaukee squad that is a miserable 4-13 vs southpaws on the year, scoring just 3.4 rpg off of them in those games. Now they face one of the best lefties in the game in Clayton Kershaw, who is 4-2 with a 1.40 ERA on the year, while in his last 3 starts he is 1-0 with an 0.79 ERA and an 0.79 WHIP. He does have a 3.92 ERA in 7 career starts vs the Brewers, but in 2 Career starts in Miller Park he is 2-0 with an 0.64 ERA. The Brewers send out Gallardo, who is struggling with an 0-2 mark and a 5.06 ERA in his last 3 starts. Yovani is 2-0 with a 3.90 ERA at home, but his team is 3-2 in his home starts and they gave him 7 rpg worth of support in those starts. They won't come close to giving him that much here. Yovani has also struggled with LA, going 1-3 with a 6.21 ERA in 6 career starts vs them, including 0-2 with a 4.78 ERA in 4 career starts vs them here. Lastly we note that the Brewers are just 3-14 in their last 17 games overall. They are not playing well at all and that gives a Dodgers team that is in need of a big win a great shot at picking up one here.
Washington/ San Francisco Over 8: Zach Duke has been horrible out of the pen for the Nats, with an 8.40 ERA in 9 appearances and now he gets a start an he has been horrible in the role in his career. Actually his first year in the bigs was good as he went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts that year for the Pirates, but since then Zach has made 154 starts and he has gone 39-76 with a 4.84 ERA. In 98 appearances on the road (84 starts) he has a 4.86 ERA. He does have a 1.08 ERA in this park, but hasn't started a game here since 2009. He will struggle vs a solid San Fran offense that has averaged 4.59 rpg game and 5.4 rpg in their last 10 games overall. The Nats offense is not that great, scoring just 3.4 rpg in their last 10 games. but they will be facing Ryan Vogelsong, who has an 8.06 ERA on the year and a 9.28 ERA in his 4 home starts. His home starts have put up 11.3 rpg on the year and he was lit up for 8 ER's in his meeting vs the Nats earlier in the year. Let's also note that the Over is 15-5-1 in San Fran's last 21 games overall and 21-10 in Washington's last 31 road games. Double digit runs here at least.
Big Kat Sports
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks will look to regain home ice advantage in their second round series with the Red Wings when the two teams meet tonight at the Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The two teams split Games 1 and 2 with Chicago winning the first and Detroit the second by identical 4-1 scores. Corey Crawford and Jimmy Howard will once again be the two guys in the crease for their respective teams. Crawford has been a bit better than Howard here in the playoffs as he has posted a 1.64 GAA and .937 save % compared to a 2.58 GAA and .916 save % for Howard. Despite their loss in Game 2, the Hawks have been dominant in the spot they are in here tonight against the Red Wings. They are 21-7 in their last 28 road games and have won 39 of their last 51 games against teams from the Central Division. They have also been excellent in the second round of the playoffs, winning 8 of their last 11. The Red Wings, who had to go 7 games to dispose of the Ducks in the first round may have actually struggled in the situation they are in here this evening,. They are just 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win and have won only 4 of their last 14 games against teams from the Central Division. Pair that with the fact that Chicago has won 8 of their last 9 games against the Wings, including 4 straight at Joe and we’ll lay the small price with them on the road tonight to get the win and take back control of the series.
Andrew Lange
Arizona at Colorado
Play: Arizona
Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price.
Bob Balfe
Giants / Nationals Over 8
The Giants have been getting shelled the last week or so. Teams are putting double digits up on them. Zach Duke used to be a favorite of mine about 5 years ago, but he has fallen off the map and is always on alert to get rocked. I don't know what is wrong with Vogelsong either this year as a starter, but I think this game is set up to be an offensive thriller however I couldn't careless if the score was 5-4. Just cash in for us. Take the Over.