Marc Lawrence
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
When Randy Wells takes the hill in Pittsburgh against Ross Ohlendorf on Memorial Day Monday afternoon he will do so knowing he is in great KW form with three walks and 17 strikeouts his last four starts. On the flip side, Ohlendorf can't find the plate of late with 18 walks and 15 strikeouts in his last five efforts. With that, look for Ohlendorf to come up a loser for the seventh game in a row during the month of May here today.
MTi Sports
Angels at Royals
Prediction: Over
The Royals are 6-0 OU when Luke Hochevar starts after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs, and 5-0 OU when Hochevar starts vs a team that has won at least their last two games. The Angels are 8-0 OU when Ervin Santana starts on the road when they lost the last time he started vs this opponent and 6-0 OU when Ervin Santana starts and their line is within 20 cents of pickem. Take these two OVER.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -113
Liriano has a solid 3.17 ERA on the season, and that number would be even if he didn't have to face the Yankees twice and the Red Sox once in his last 3 starts. The Twins won his first 5 starts before dropping his next 4, but I think this is an excellent place for him to get back in the win column. The M's are only hitting .255 and scoring 3.8 runs per game against southpaw starters this season. In fact, the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins have been crushing righty starters, hitting .272 and scoring 5.1 runs per game. Fister is not a strikeout pitcher and that puts him at a disadvantage against a very good Twins lineup that figures to put the ball in play all night long. The Twins enter having won 4 straight and they won their last 6 versus the AL West. Plus, they are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road favorite and 41-18 in their last 59 games as a favorite overall. Take the Twins.
Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have better numbers this season than Toronto. Tampa Bay is 19-5 on the road, averaging 6 runs per game and have an excellent 2.45 road bullpen ERA. The Blue Jays have not hit in division play. They are hitting a paltry .227. In the pitching match up Tampa has M. Garza going tonight. Garza has a 2.04 road era and a 2.17 career 2.17 era vs the Jays. Toronto counters with Morrow tonight. Morrow has a 4.70 home era and has been lit up of late with a 6.60 era. He has lost both starts he has made vs Tampa Bay as well. Look for Tampa to get game 1 tonight.
David Chan
Rockies @ Giants
PICK: Over 6
Go over 6 runs in the Rockies—Giants game. Pass 6.5, but the early indication is that we’ll see plenty of “6”.
We’ve got two premium pitchers here but the total should be at least 6.5. The Giants are giving up an average of four runs in Lincecum’s starts (more lately), and although it seems like a lifetime ago, Jimenez faced the Giants five times in 2009 and gave up at least two earned runs four out of five times. Lincecum’s own body of work against the Rockies is up and down: in nine starts in 2008-09, he’s given up at least three earned runs five times.
With a total this low, we don’t need both of these guys to blow up, we just need a little timely hitting. (If one pitcher blows up, that’s just an easy cash.) At 6.5 this is probably a pass but the push on “6” is very attractive here—even if the teams concentrate on manufacturing runs one at a time. Sooner or later somebody’s going to be swinging at a drawn-in infield and a crooked number or two will get posted.
I generally hate betting overs, but I don’t see “6” every day, so this one’s worth a shot.
Jack Jones
St. Louis Cardinals -145
After losing a series in Cincinnati earlier this month, the Cardinals are primed to get payback starting with Game 1 Monday. St. Louis sits 1 game behind Cincinnati in the NL Central and will be looking to pull back to even with the Reds tonight. They give the ball to Jamie Garcia, who has been their best starter all year even with Wainwright and Carpenter going strong. Garcia is 4-2 with a 1.14 ERA and 1.139 WHIP this season. He has been virtually un-hittable at home, allowing no earned runs in 19 innings for a 0.00 ERA and 0.895 WHIP in 3 home outings.
Reds' starter Bronson Arroyo has posted a 4.73 ERA on the road this season. The Reds are 6-15 in Arroyo's last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record, including 2-6 in his last 8 road starts vs. winning teams. The Reds are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Cincinnati is 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 as well. For whatever reason, the Cardinals tend to get off to a great start each week. St. Louis is 12-0 in their last 12 Monday games. The Cardinals are also 36-15 in their last 51 during game 1 of a series. The Cards are 37-15 in their last 52 home meetings with Cincinnati, and 5-1 in their last home games vs. Bronson Arroyo. They'll get the win today in a very motivated effort against Cincinnati. Take the Cardinals.
JIM FEIST
CINCINNATI REDS/ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
TAKE ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The St Louis Cardinals can pull back into a first place tie with the visiting Cincinnati Reds today with a win. And who better to do it than pitcher Jaime Garcia. Garcia has been a pitching machine this season with a 4-2 mark and remarkable 1.14 ERA. Garcia is coming off another fine performance where he allowed no earned runs over six innings to the Padres. Only Colorado's Ubaldo Jiminez has a better ERA than Garcia. Garcia's problem hasn't been his pitching, but his lack of run support. In Garcia's last two starts he has received ZERO run support from his team. But, this may be a thing of the past now that Albert Puljols seems to have emerged from his slump. Puljols has nine RBIs in his last four games after a slump that saw him go 11 games without an RBI. Bronson Arroyo starts for the Reds and has a nice 5-2 record with a 4.30 ERA. Arroyo has pitched well against the Cards, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings this season. Home cooking here as the Cardinals return to Busch Stadium. With Puljols looking more like his old self I expect the Cardinals to start playing more like the division leaders they should be. Take the Cardinals here on Monday.
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Dodgers -165
The Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Bllingley is really in a groove. Billingsley is 6-2 so far this season with an ERA of 3.63, but over his last three starts Billingsley is an impressive 3-0 with an ERA of only 1.37! Arizona send Ridrigo Lopez to the mound for this game against the Dodgers. Lopez has not had much success against Los Angeles in the past as he is only 1-3 with an ERA of 4.02 in six career starts against the Dodgers. Lopez is not an overpowering pitcher and pitches to contact which leads to a lot of base runners for his opponents. I expect the Dodgers to be able to knock him around in this game. The Dodgers are 5-2 in Billingsley's last seven starts against the Diamondbacks and Arizona is only 4-13 in the last seventeen meetings in Los Angeles. Play on the Dodgers.
Tom Freese
Minnesota at Seattle
Minnesota starter Fransico Liriano has allowed 3 runs or less 7 of his 9 starts this year. The Twins are 7-2-1 UNDER in the last 10 starts made Liriano. The Twins are 17-8-1 UNDER their last 26 games as road favorites of -110 to 150. Seattle starter Doug Fister has allowed 3 runs or less in all 9 of his starts this year. These teams are 5-1 UNDER the last 6 games in Seattle. The Mariners 4-1 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Fister and they are 32-19-2 UNDER after scoring 5 more runs in their last game. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Gill Alexander
STL (-150) vs CIN
Memorial Day 2010. Bunting, Busch, and Baseball. Arroyo has 5 quality starts in 10 outings this season but has a stellar 2.66ERA in his last 6 starts. He has only allowed 3ER in 17IP v StL in 2010, including a CG win against the Cardinals on May 16th. However, both of those ballgames were at home. Over the last 3 seasons at Busch, Arroyo has a 5.64ERA w the Cards hitting him at a .304 clip. As a matter of fact, the Cardinals have won every series between these two clubs at Busch since June of 2006. Garcia is 9-for-9 in quality starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .197 against him in '10. He has the 2nd best ERA in the NL at 1.14. He has a 0.69ERA in day games and a 0.00ERA this season at Busch in 19IP. I'm told you can't do better than that last stat. He hasn't allowed more than 2ER in any of his 9 appearances this season. Sabermetrics confirms a strong advantage for Garcia in this one. Arroyo has a 4.63FIP and a 4.89xFIP in 2010. Garcia is tied for the 10th best FIP in MLB at 3.07, while his xFIP is 3.72. It is uncertain if Joey Votto will play in this one. Either way, the Red Birds, ignited by an offensive explosion yesterday, have big value Monday afternoon.
Lisowski
SAN DIEGO
The Mets are 2-9 in San Diego. On the road they have lost 12 of 16 games when up against a right-handed starter. The Padres are a 63% proposition as a favorite this season.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals
We’ll back the Angels here on Memorial Day, as once again we find Kansas City struggling at the plate. The Royals are coming off back-to-back losses at Boston where they scored a combined one run on ten hits in those losses. And they’ll face Santana here, who not only owns a 9-1 team start record against AL Central opponents, but is coming off a complete game win at home vs. Toronto. Angels have won eight of the last ten games played here in Kansas City, and we expect another easy win this afternoon!
Play on: Los Angeles Angels
Michael Alexander
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies look to hold on to first place in the NL East when they start a three game series on the road versus the Atlanta Braves. The Braves, sitting in second place, have won 10 of 12 and sit only 1/2 game in back of the Phillies.
To pull off a win the Phillies will have to break out of a hitting slump that saw they shut out yesterday for the fifth time in the last eight games while hitting only .186. The Phillies are hopting they can get their bats hitting today as they go against scheduled starter Tommy Hanson (4-3, 4.06 ERA). Prior to his last start Hanson giave up 8 runs in 1 2/3 innings.
The Phillies are 4-2 versus the Braves this season, and send Joe Blanton to the hill. In Blanton's last 3 starts against the Braves he has given up a total of only 5 earned runs.
The Phillies look to get their bats going today as Atlanta starter Hanson is 0-2 versus the Phillies with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.714.
Just can't pass up a superior team (Phillies) even with their hitting problems at this great price. I'm taking the Phillies in this one.
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
5* graded play on the Giants as they take on Colorado in a major showdown of stud starters set to start at 4:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Giants and Lincecum will win over against the Rockies and Jimenez. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 73-28 making 38.4 units since 1997. Play on NL home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season. Tweaking this system to include starters with an ERA of 3.00 or less produces a record of 48-13 for 79% winners since 1997. SF is in an excellent role here noting they are 24-9 (+19.3 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons. Rockies are a miserable 2-17 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite since 1997. Lincecum is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA on the season and many “experts” say he is struggling. Well, here is an remarkable fact about how well he does pitch. The large majority of pitchers in MLB - or at any level - have a significant edge against hitters by getting strike one. Lincecum actually is actually better after a 1-0 count than an 0-1 count this season. This allows him to throw any pitch he wants for strike one and prevents the opposition from noting any specific pattern of pitches. After 0-1 Lincecum has allowed a 214 BA and after 1-0 he has allowed a 182 BA. Take the Giants.
SEAN MURPHY
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
I really like the way the Giants have played on their current homestand, winners of five of six games, including a come-from-behind 6-5 victory in extras against Arizona on Sunday.
This is a team that suddenly has renewed life at the plate, and it has a lot to do with the call-up of Buster Posey. He joined the team on Saturday, and proceeded to go 6-for-9 with four RBI over the final two games of their weekend series. He plugs a gaping hole that existed in the six-spot in the Giants order.
Since adding Posey on Saturday, the Giants have pounded out 28 hits and scored 18 runs in two games. It seems that their entire lineup is starting to heat up, and that's good news as they prepare to face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Ubaldo Jimenez.
The Rockies weren't quite as successful over the weekend. They had their five-game winning streak snapped by the Dodgers on Friday, and ultimately dropped two of three games in the series. Now they hit the road where they're just 11-15 on the season.
As I mentioned, Ubaldo Jimenez will get the call for the visiting Rockies on Monday. He's looking for his 10th victory of the season, but I think he'll have to wait at least one more start to get it. There's no point trying to point out flaws in Jimenez's game, as there have been very few so far this season. He's allowed two earned runs or less in each of his 10 starts.
I will point out that the Rockies have lost each of his last three starts here at AT&T Park in San Francisco. In his last start here last September, he lasted only 2 2/3 innings and was tagged for six hits and six earned runs.
The current Giants roster hasn't had a great deal of success against Jimenez, but Pablo Sandoval and Juan Uribe are a combined 9-for-23 (.391) with one home run and four RBI against him. Of the team's 26 career hits off of him, nine of them have gone for extra bases.
Tim Lincecum has done some extra work over the last week, trying to right the ship after a couple of bad outings. I'm not all that concerned about his recent struggles. Even after allowing 11 earned runs over his last two starts, spanning just 9 2/3 innings, Lincecum is still 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.12 WHIP this season. That tells you just how well he had been pitching previously. This is a guy that can snap back to form in a heartbeat, and I'm confident we'll see that today.
The Giants won both of Lincecum's home starts against the Rockies last season, taking those games by a combined 11-1 margin. The current Rockies roster is hitting just .256 in 160 career at-bats against him. Note that Colorado has struggled at the plate on the road this season, hitting a collective .242 in 26 games.
The Giants have a ton of momentum on their side right now having won four games in a row. They have a tough task in front of them on Monday, but I expect them to once again find a way to get it done. Take San Francisco.