Black Widow
1* on Chicago Cubs -131
Shockingly, the Cubs have lost 5 of 6 games vs. Pittsburgh this season. That's why the Pirates have the Cubs' attention and Chicago will not go lay an egg in Pittsburgh in this series. Instead, we fully expect the Cubs to win this series starting with Game 1 tonight. Randy Wells is coming off the worst start of his career, and a bad start against Pittsburgh the last time he faced them, so he'll be highly motivated to piece together a dominant outing. The Pirates are 12-25 against righty starters this season, hitting .230 and scoring 3.1 runs/game. Pittsburgh has lost 5 straight games, getting outscored 10-30 in the process. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA on the road this season, while Pirates' starter Ross Ohlendorf is 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.894 WHIP in three home starts this year. The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. The Pirates are 0-6 in Ohlendorf's last 6 starts vs. National League Central foes. Chicago is 7-1 in Wells' last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Cubs on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Washington Nationals +174
Reasons the Nationals win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (HOUSTON) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better on the season-NL. This is a 38-15 ML System hitting 71.7% since 1997.
2.) A team that is hitting .224 and putting up just 2.9 RPG against right-handed starters this season should not be such a monster favorite Monday. That's the case with Houston. The Astros do throw Roy Oswalt and despite his great numbers, Oswalt sports just a 3-6 record this season because he is getting little to no run support. Washington starts Luis Atilano, who has had his best stuff on the road this season. Atilano has gone 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in four road outings. We'll take the value. Bet the Nationals on the road.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies +101
Lincecum has some kinks to work out as he's given up 11 earned runs in his last 2 starts. Meanwhile, Jimenez has asserted himself as the best pitcher in baseball this season, and he will certainly be out to prove it against the two-time reigning NL Cy Young winner. Jimenez is 9-1 on the season with a 0.88 ERA, and his ERA tightens up to just 0.62 on the road. Considering how shaky Lincecum has been lately, the value lies with Jimenez in the underdog role here. Take the Rockies.
Dave Price
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -153
The Keys: I really like the Cards' chances today with Garcia on the mound at home when you consider he has not allowed even one earned run in 3 home starts this season. Plus, the Reds have dropped 10 of their last 13 road games when facing a lefty starter. And while Arroyo has been pretty good this season, the Reds have lost 5 of his last 6 road starts against the Cardinals. This is a series the Cards want badly so they can regain the top spot in the division. Look for them to start it off with a win at home.
SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +1.03 over SAN DIEGO
The Mets have won six of eight and will send out the year’s best find so far in Hisanori Takahashi (103 BPV, 5-5 PQS). Like most Japanese pitchers, Takahashi uses an assortment of off-speed stuff to keep hitters off-balance and he’s been near flawless so far. He’s made two starts against two high-powered offenses in NYY and PHI, shutting them both down for six IP and he’ll take a huge step down in class at this incredibly pitcher-friendly park. We’re not going to need much from the Mets offense to cash this ticket but it sure is better that the aforementioned Mets offense is seeing the ball pretty well these days. In fact, the Mets have scored 54 runs over its last 10 games and scored five or more in seven of those. They’re hitting a combined .305 over that stretch. All pitchers for the Padres are having great years, as they’re aided by Petco. Kevin Correia is among them but he’s allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts. His ERA on the year is 4.03 and his career ERA is 4.34, which isn’t bad but his numbers are skewed because of where he pitches at least half of his games. In four starts on the road, Correia’s ERA is 5.56 and it’s been close to that his whole career, which is an indication of how this guy is helped by this park. Correia is an ok pitcher and that’s all he’ll ever be. What we get here is the better offense, the better pitcher and most importantly, a price, albeit a small one. Play: NY Mets +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.17 over FLORIDA (1st 5 innings)
The Marlins have lost four of its last five and over that stretch they’ve batted .195 and scored nine lousy runs. This afternoon they’ll send out lefty Nate Robertson and laying anything with this guy is a huge and avoidable risk. Robertson (-2 BPV, 2-3-2-3-5 PQS) continues to defy reason, as he’s had only one good PQS start all season. His upside remains limited and luck dependent, as his GB% is lower this year than it’s been in any other and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .330 Robertson also walks too many batters and allows too many hits to have any prolonged success at this level. He stunk it up in Detroit and he’s going to do the same here because his skills are very limited. Chris Narveson (50 BPV, 3-4-3-3-0 PQS) is whiffing over eight batters a game as a starter and the Marlins rank third in the NL in strikeouts. That should bode well here for Narveson. He’s only allowed one jack over his last five starts and he catches the Marlins at precisely the right time. It’s also worth noting that Narveson is 4-0 on the road and appears to be more comfortable when the joint is pulling for him. With a toxic pen and because this choice is largely based on wagering against Robertson, the play here is the Brewers in the first half of the game. Play: Milwaukee +1.17 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
LOS ANGELES –1½ +1.12 over Arizona
Speaking of toxic bullpens, one need not look further than the pen of these Snakes. So far this season the D-Backs pen has an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.70. Over its last three games in San Fran over the weekend, that same pen posted a 2.17 WHIP and an ERA of 8.50. Each guy they run out there is worse than the next and that makes lifting the starter more difficult. Rodrigo Lopez will get yanked at some point, as he averages about 5.2 innings per start and has been getting progressively worse with each start. Lopez has allowed 15 hits and 10 runs in his last 11 frames and when he pitched at Chavez Ravine earlier this year, when he was going good, he was whacked to the tune of 11 hits and five runs in five innings. Andre Ethier is set to return for this game, putting the homer-prone Rodriguez (1.4 hr/9) at even more risk. Meanwhile Chad Billingsley is dealing it right now. He’s won four straight games, fanning 24 in 25 IP over this stretch. Billingsley is a quality starter that got off to a slow start but that is a distant memory right now. The fact is, Billingsley has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts and he’ll face a D-Back team that has dropped seven in a row and has been outscored by a ridiculous 53-17 count over that stretch. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels –1.01 over KANSAS CITY
The Royals offense scored one run over the last two games in Boston. The Angels offense is on fire, having scored 31 runs over its last six games and that includes 14 over its last two games. Current Angel batters are hitting a robust .429 off Luke Hochevar with an OBP of .455. Earvin Santana is just 27-years-old and appears to be fully recovered from his injury troubled year in 2009. He looks more like the stellar version we saw in ’08 and when this guy is on he possesses some of the best stuff in the majors. Santana has whiffed 62 batters in 69 innings while walking just 21. In five May starts, Santana is 3-1 with a 2.78 ERA. When Santana has guys chasing his slider out of the zone he’s virtually unhittable and with the Royals likely pressing after scoring once in its last 18 frames, that slider will look like a pea. The Angels are heating up with four wins in five games and certainly have a great shot here at a very cheap price. Play: L.A. Angels –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
JR O'Donnell
DET (-182) vs OAK
J.J Verlander all the way as JR O goes all in today with the Detroit Tigers! This is about as high as we will go with a favorite as 180 is a pretty steep price to pay on the diamond. Our clients know that long term favorites of this price are a deadly deal for the season. The best way to make $$$$$ consistently in any sport is to be very selective and choose spots to fire away on. JR O is rolling a Miquel Cabrera and JJ Verlander duo today for the win. Tevor Cahill has been pasted by the Tigers and today's winner @ Comerica park goes to a hungry Tigers club . Look at JJ's #'s, 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Oakland A's at Comerica Park.
DUNKEL INDEX
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 7-1 record against the Cubs in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. Pittsburgh is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120)
Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.305; Atlanta (Hanson) 16.672
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at Florida (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.439; Florida (Robertson) 14.334
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Over
Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.002; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+120); Over
Game 907-908: Washington at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.332; Houston (Oswalt) 14.265
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Houston (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Under
Game 909-910: Colorado at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.421; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.665
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-105); Under
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.763; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.563
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+130); Over
Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 13.159; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.003
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-175); Over
Game 915-916: NY Mets at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Takahashi) 14.868; San Diego (Correia) 15.796
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Over
Game 917-918: Cleveland at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 14.984; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 14.843
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-260); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+220); Under
Game 919-920: Oakland at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 16.311; Detroit (Verlander) 15.431
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+150); Over
Game 921-922: LA Angels at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 16.444; Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.107
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-110); Over
Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.039; Toronto (Morrow) 16.152
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+125); Under
Game 925-926: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.150; Seattle (Fister) 16.368
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+100); Under
NHL
Philadelphia at Chicago
The Flyers look to bounce back from their Game 1 loss and build on their 13-3 record against the Blackhawks in the last 16 meetings between the two teams. Philadelphia is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+170)
Game 3-4: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 14.201; Chicago 13.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+170); Under
JOEL TYSON
After a pair of walk-off wins the last 2 days, I would say the Angels are feeling pretty good about themselves as they head to Kansas City to face a Royals team that has lost their last pair, and 5 of their last 8.
LA went 9-1 in the season series last year against Kansas City, and are 12-3 the last 2 years against the Royals.
Have to expect that winning to continue today, as Ervin Santana has won his last 3 starts, and has won 2 of his last 3 starts against the Royals.
Luke Hochevar has a little momentum going, winning his last pair of starts, but his season ERA is still a high 4.95.
I am taking the Angels to continue their mastery over the Royals.
3♦ LA ANGELS
JEFF BENTON
Despite just missing with Sunday’s free play on the Rockies, I’m still on runs of 82-50-2 and 43-28 with plays that I’m giving away! For Memorial Day, we’ll play the Braves on the run-line (-1½ runs) at home against the Phillies in early action.
Classic case of two teams going in completely opposite directions. Atlanta has won five in a row, 10 of 12 and 14 of 18, and just completed a three-game weekend sweep of the Pirates by the combined tally of 18-8 (all multi-run victories). The Braves have been getting it done offensively, as they lead the majors in runs scored in May (they’ve scored 5, 6, 7, 8 and 7 runs during their current five-game winning streak).
On the other hand, the Phillies fell to Florida 1-0 on Sunday and have now been shutout four times in their last six games and five times in their last eight games. They’re just 4-8 in their last 12 contests, and look at the run totals in the eight defeats: 1, 1, 0, 3, 0, 0, 0, 3, 1 and 0. Even in its last two victories, Philadelphia scored a total of four runs – including Saturday’s 1-0 with at Florida with Roy Halladay throwing a perfect game and getting just one unearned run of support.
Obviously, the Phillies’ potent offense is going to wake up at some point, but I don’t think it will happen today against Tommy Hanson. After back-to-back brutal outings, Hanson got back on track on Wednesday, allowing just two runs on four hits in six innings of a 7-3 victory at Florida. The Braves are now 7-2 in Hanson’s last nine starts, including 3-1 in his last four at home.
As for Phillies starter Joe Blanton, he’s 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA in five starts, including 1-1 with a 7.30 ERA in two road games, giving up five runs in each of those two outings on the highway. And he’s just 1-2 with a 5.31 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.
Finally, the Braves have won 11 of Hanson’s last 16 home starts, 17 of 22 as a favorite and 13 of 16 as a home favorite, and 11 of the last 13 meetings between these teams – including the last five in a row this season – have been decided by multiple runs.
4♦ ATLANTA BRAVES -1.5
Scott Spreitzer
Twins - Mariners
Pick: Under
Seattle is the home of the best pitcher’s park in the American League statistically, and will likely see a true pitcher’s duel tonight between Francisco Liriano and Doug Fister. Liriano has a sharp 3.17 ERA this year with a 1.29 WHIP. And, that’s with FOUR games against the strong offenses of the Yankees and Red Sox! If you look at his stats vs. everyone else, the numbers drop to 2.83 and 1.26. He’ll be facing a “somebody else” tonight that has one of the worst offenses in baseball! Fister is having great success in his debut season, posting a 2.03 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP thus far for the Mariners. His home park has helped him build confidence. His numbers in Seattle are 1.80 and 0.76. Both offenses had to travel for the game without a day of rest, with Minnesota playing Sunday Night halfway across the country. Either pitcher could throw a shutout in these circumstances, and we’re likely to see a very low scoring game. Oddsmakers have had big trouble putting the right totals on pitchers duels this season. The value has been with the Under much of the time. The Under in the Twins/Mariners game is the play.
Jimmy Moore
Colorado @ San Francisco
Pick: Under 6
With these 2 stud pitchers have to look at the under in this game even at this low total. Both of these starters easily have the ability to go 8 solid innings making it simple to go straight from starter to closer.
Bobby Maxwell
My record with FREE plays sits at 103-83-3 with a winner coming today in the National League West matchup between the Rockies and the Giants from San Francisco, as I go with two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and the Giants.
Great pitching matchup in this one and I’m going with the home team and Lincecum (5-1, 3.00 ERA). I know he’s going up against Colorado stud Ubaldo Jimenez (9-1, 0.88), but the Giants are going to get a few runs over and you’ll see Lincecum outduel Jimenez today.
Lincecum was not so good in his last two outings, including Wednesday’s home start against the Nationals, when he allowed six run on six hits in just 4.2 innings of a 7-3 loss. He walked five in that start and has walked 15 in his last three outings.
But against the Rockies, Lincecum has been dominant, including all three starts last season when he combined to allow just four runs over 22 innings. In September, he held the Rockies to one run on six hits in seven innings of a 9-1 win, striking out 11 along the way. In seven of his last nine starts against Colorado he’s allowed three runs or less, including all three last season.
Of course Jimenez has been outstanding this season, but the Giants roughed him up a few times last season, including on September 15 when he allowed seven runs in just 2.2 innings of a 10-2 loss. The Rockies are just 4-6 in his last 10 outings against the Giants.
San Francisco has taken seven of the last nine matchups with the Rockies, including two of three this season. The Giants are 6-2 in their last eight Monday games and 7-1 in their last eight at home.
It’s going to be low scoring, but San Francisco will plate a few runs. I’ll take the Giants and Lincecum to win this matchup.
4♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Stephen Nover
Coming in on a 16-5 run with my complimentary baseball releases, today I take a look at the Rockies over San Francisco.
This is the lowest total of the season and it's completely justified with a pitching matchup of Ubaldo Jimenez versus Tim Lincecum.
Jimenez is in better form than Lincecum right now, so I'm going to side with Colorado. Jimenez has the lowest ERA in the majors at 0.88. He hasn't allowed a run in his last 17 innings.
Jimenez hasn't given up more than two earned runs in any of his 10 starts this season.
Lincecum, by contrast, is going through his first slump. He's been tagged for 11 runs in his last 9 2/3 innings. He has walked five in each of his last three starts.
Lincecum will be facing a Rockies lineup that entered the weekend ranked in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored and homers. The Giants ranked 21st in runs and 24th in homers going into the weekend.
The Rockies have won six of the past seven times when facing a right-handed starter.
2♦ ROCKIES
Karl Garrett
G-Man coming with the Good Fathers this Memorial Day Monday, as the Padres will take on a Mets team that did salvage a game in Milwaukee over the weekend, but are just 7-16 this year away from Citi Field.
Hisanori Takahashi has been stellar in his 2 starts since coming out of the bullpen, as the righty has not allowed a run in 12 innings of work for a 1-0 mark, but his counterpart Kevin Correia is fresh off 6 shutout innings of work at home against the Cardinals which lowered his ERA at Petco Park to 2.83.
San Diego has dominated the Mets the last couple of years in the season series, going 10-4 overall against New York. A closer look inside of that 10-4 mark shows a 7-1 mark against the Mets at Petco Park.
New York has not proved they can win on the road this year, and they have also not proved they can win consistently on San Diego's diamond.
That being the case, the G-Man is all over the Padres as the small home field favorite this Monday night.
Have a great Memorial Day everybody.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Chuck O'Brien
I’ve hit two free plays in a row and three of the last four. Monday’s complimentary selection comes in American League action, as I’ll play the Mariners as a small home underdog against Minnesota.
First off, I’m siding with the hotter pitcher here. Seattle’s Doug Fister is 3-2 with a 2.03 ERA in nine starts, including 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his last three outings. The right-hander has given up three earned runs twice, but in his other seven starts he’s held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer.
Meanwhile, Twins southpaw Francisco Liriano got off to a hot start to the season, but he’s 0-3 with a 5.70 ERA in his last four outings (all Minnesota losses). In those four defeats, Liriano has allowed 32 hits and six walks (so 38 baserunners) in 23 2/3 innings. By comparison, Fister has given up just 49 hits and 10 walks (59 baserunners) for the entire season (62 innings).
Even though the Mariners are coming off back-to-back heartbreaking losses to the Angels – they blew late-inning leads and lost on walk-off home runs in both games – this is still a tougher spot for the Twins. They played the late ESPN game last night which ended at about 11 p.m. Central time, then had to fly to Seattle for this contest.
The home team has dominated this rivalry the last three seasons (13-6 last 19 meetings), and Minnesota is just 12-11 on the road this season (2-5 last seven) and 3-7 in Liriano’s last 10 road starts, while Seattle is 5-1 in Fister’s last six as an underdog.
3♦ SEATTLE