Brett Atkins
Delivered a second straight free winner on Sunday as the Cardinals got three homers from Albert Pujols and crushed the Cubs. Tonight, I have another National League freebie for you as I play the Padres at home to get the job done over the Mets.
San Diego continues to get outstanding starting pitching, perfect bullpen work and just enough offense to beat teams.
One of those starters that is outstanding, at least at home, is Kevin Correia who has a 2.83 ERA at Petco Park and is on the hill today to take on the Mets as they come in off a Sunday win in Milwaukee.
Correia blanked the Cardinals for six innings on Thursday at home and the Padres scored the 2-1 win in extra innings. Last August, Correia shut down the Mets for six innings, allowing two unearned runs in a 6-2 win for the Padres.
San Diego has taken five of seven against the Mets and four of the last five, plus in Petco, the Padres are 8-1 against New York. I’ll pay the small price and go with the Padres in this one.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Dave Cokin
Angels at Royals
A tough weekend for the Angels, with a bunch of injuries (including a foolish one in a home plate celebration) and now having to fly halfway across the country for this game. The KC offense is much improved from a year ago, as is starter Luke Hochevar, who is 5-2 on the season. He’s not walking anyone and has a 3.86 ERA his last three starts. Take the Royals!
Dan Bebe
COL (-104) vs SFG
This game is all about trends and perception, and I know everyone is very busy on this fine Holiday, so let's just fire out the notes, and everyone can get back to BBQ'ing.
Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't really need any descriptors. He's been the single best pitcher in all of baseball. The end.
There are a few other notes that could use a little analysis, though.
Tim Lincecum, for one, has not been himself, lately. He's allowed 11 runs over his last 2 starts, and something just isn't quite right. I don't know if it's just a slump, some small injury he's not telling trainers about, a mechanical flaw, or what, but when you give up 6 runs to the Washington Nationals, that's probably a sign that things are just not perfect with The Freak. And when you're going against Jimenez, you need to be perfect.
Also, I think a lot of folks are going to see that the Giants have won 5 of 6 games on their current homestand and assume they've got everything figured out, but I strongly disagree. San Francisco beat Washington twice, and swept a series from the lowly Diamondbacks. The Rockies are a completely different beast. Colorado has an outstanding bullpen, they've been playing better baseball, and I believe we're getting a cheap line on the best pitcher in the Bigs because of the perception that (a) the Giants are red hot, and (b) the Rockies aren't. In fact, the Rockies were playing great ball before that series with the Dodgers, and we can almost write that series off as the Rox running into their own personal buzz-saw. The Giants have struggled mightily against teams with even half-decent pitching staffs, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see them held to 0 or 1 run in this one.
There isn't going to be a ton of scoring done, but as noted, if Lincecum isn't quite right, and if that means the Rox can score 2 runs off him, that's a huge edge. Folks are jumping on the Giants and giving us a great line in a game the Rockies will win.
Play on Colorado!
Sac Lawson
FLA (-122) vs MIL
Sorry guys, super close to game time... so in a couple sentences. Narveson absolutely gets owned by right handed bats (0.360) clip. Florida is literally all right handed power bats, that's a huge issue for them. Not to mention, Milwaukee wins 3 out of 4 at home, and all of a sudden they get line respect on the road??? I don't think so. Milwaukee has struggled in Florida a great deal over the past few seasons, and I 100% do not like what Narveson brings to the table against this lineup. On top of it, Florida has, by far, the better bullpen today. Better pen, starter that is least likely to implode, and home field.
Larry Ness
SFG (-105) vs COL
Ubaldo Jimenez is 9-1 with an 0.88 ERA after 10 starts and is looking to become just the SIXTH pitcher to earn his 10th win of the season before June since the 1990 season. In order to accomplish the feat, he'll have to best the two-time defending NL Cy Young award winner, Tim Lincecum. Lincecum was nearly matching Jimenez in the pitching department after eight starts, posting a 5-0 record with a 1.75 ERA (bullpen blew three saves or Lincecum would have been 8-0). However, he's allowed five walks in each of his last three starts plus he's done NOTHING RIGHT his last two, allowing 11 hits, 10 walks and 11 ERs over 9.2 innings (10.24 ERA). However, I believe this is a perfect spot for Lincecum to "rise to the challenge." The Rockies are 5-14 this season in games in which the line has been between plus-$1.25 and minus-$1.25, including 3-10 on the road. The Giants are 18-9 at home in 2010, outscoring opponents on average, 4.48-to-2.85 RPG. Colorado was just 2-7 in San Francisco last year and lost TWO of three here from April 30-May 2. Take the Giants and Lincecum.