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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 1

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Andre Rameriz

Jeff Horn -280

Jeff Horn is a very good technical fighter from Australia. Jeff likes to come in close, setting up with his left, and pounding opponents with his hard right. Viktor got smashed against Sugar Jackson, who fought a simular style of fight. Viktor is not a close range fighter, and is not aggressive. Jeff will move to the inside, and will dismantle his opponent. Jeff has excellent defense on the inside, and his hard to hit. He likes to bob and weave on the inside, and just pound on mistakes. Lay the money on Jeff Horn for today's money fight!

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 7:55 pm
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Robert Ferringo

Kansas City / Toronto Over 8.5

This is the perfect time to get hot, and I am heading into the football season with a full head of steam! I have gone 16-1 with my last 17 MLB plays and banked over $7,000 since the All-Star Break below. I am completely focused heading into the fall and ready for another monster football season. I have posted 7 of 8 winning Augusts, and my NFL Preseason selections have been a great way to build your bankroll before the "real" season starts. These are two of the best offenses in baseball, and I think that this is going to be a high-scoring series. The Royals love to play the speed game - hitting the ball on the ground and stealing bases. That will work like a charm on the turf in Toronto. Add on their success against lefties and I see the Royals offense rolling once more. Toronto just added Troy Tulowitzki and added to an already-powerful lineup. They should get their cuts in against Yordano Ventura, and I see this one being played with each team scoring at least four runs.

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 7:56 pm
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Allen Eastman

Angels / Dodgers Under 6.5

Here we have two of the best teams in baseball going at it. They just happen to be in the same state! Both teams are armed with outstanding starters and two of the best bullpens in the game. They are also both fighting for their respective divisions. Both teams need this game, and I do not see a slugfest. I think that it will hurt the Angels not being able to use the DH, and it will help both starters that they have one less "real" batter to get out. The Dodgers have gone 'under' in four of their last five home games and the 'under' is 16-6 in their last 22 Game 2's of a series against a team over .500.

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 7:57 pm
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Strike Point Sports

Houston (-195) over Arizona

You can't be much more dominating than Dallas Keuchel has been at home this year, and I think he will lead the Astros to another victory. Keuchel is 9-0 with a 1.13 ERA at home this year and has not allowed a home run in any of those contests as compared to giving up 8 in his road starts. Keuchel hasn't allowed a run in his last 3 starts at home spanning 24 innings, and I think it will be hard for Arizona to score on him. Jeremy Hellickson will be opposing him on the mound, and he is 2-3 with a 5.26 ERA on the road this year. Hellickson has had a tough go in his last 4 starts away from home, going 0-2 while allowing 16 runs through 19 innings pitched. Houston has the best home record in the American League at 33-17, and I think they will add to that today with another win in this game.

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 7:58 pm
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Alan Harris

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira +165 over Mauricio Rua

We may be witnessing the end of a UFC career when Mauricio "Shogun" Rua takes on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 190 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Saturday night. Rua has lost four of his last five fights and hasn't been in the octagon since a 34-second loss to Ovince St. Preux in November of last year. While Rua is just 33 years old, when you look at his overall career, and the beatings he has taken over the past few years, one could argue that he has the body of a much older man at this point. His saving grace may be that he does have a BJJ black belt, but he hasn't won a fight by submission since 2006, and we can't really see him being able to get Nogueira on the ground in this one to take advantage of his expertise. Lil' Nog, as he's known in the UFC circles, may be 39 years old, but we think he gets in done in the underdog role in this one. He has a better well-rounded attack when compared to Shogun and has much more recent "good wins" on his recent resume, including victories over Tito Ortiz and former UFC Light Heavyweight Champ Rashad Evans. Like Rua, Nogueira was blasted in his last fight, but it was by top contender Anthony Johnson, who is 9-1 in his last 10 fights with his only loss coming to Daniel Cormier in a bout for the vacant Light Heavyweight belt. We're looking for a strong bounce back from Lil' Nog this evening, and we expect him to take care of Rua pretty easily as the underdog in the Co-Main Event on the UFC 190 Card.

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 7:59 pm
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Raphael Esparza

Correia vs.Rousey Over 1.5 Rounds +280

Yes, I know Ronda Rousey dominates in the octagon quickly and early, but this fight is not going to be a push over. First of all, Bethe Correia is fighting in her home country, and she pretty much said she wants to take this fight into the late rounds, so wouldn't shock me to see the first round pretty boring. Both fighters haven't tasted a loss yet, so I see both fighters coming out cautious. In Correia's last three fights, two of them have gone the distance while Rousey last three fights haven't seen the second round. However, again this fight will be different, and I see Ronda Rousey winning this fight in the late second round of early third round.

 
Posted : July 31, 2015 8:00 pm
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Sleepyj

Rays / Red Sox Over 9

Matt Moore for the Rays is showing no signs of getting better...In fact since his return this year he has been down right bad...He has a total of 6 games started this year..His ERA is 7.61 and it's very justifiable...He has a grand total of 22 innings pitched in those 6 games..That rather bad..he has allowed a total of 20 ER in that stretch and 33 hits as well...So he is giving up 1.5 hits per innings and 1 ER per inning he pitches...His walks to strikeout ratio is horrible...He has a total of 12 BB and only 15 K's...He is a fly ball pitcher and he has surrended a total of 3 HR's in those 22 total innings pitched this year..The point of all of this is Moore since his return has nothing to really lean on..He is just bad right now..Tampa Bay on the other hand, got the bats rolling to start off this series...I expect them to keep it rolling again today against Joe Kelly...Kelly is in the same boat as Moore..He has a 5.94 ERA and he has gotten crushed in his last 4 out of 5 starts..He also has only 1 win to his credit over his last 10 starts...His strikeout to walk ratio is just as bad as Moore...These guys are really mirror images of each other..I think today it will be a race to see who hits the showers the fastest..My gut says it's Moore because the RedSox bats have been rather good as of late and they are at home..Although Kelly very well could get crushed as well..The only way to look at this game is to the over IMO...Stikeouts will be rather low..Hits, runs and walks should be rather high for both sides..Don;t be surprised if we see a bunch of fielding errors in this one as well...This one sits at 9 and i think that is the correct number for this game...I'll take the over here in a game we might just see this over get hit early on.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:57 am
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Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -113

Seattle has no offense, 25th in runs scored, 28th in on base percentage. Seattle's Mike Montgomery started hot but has really cooled off with the team 0-4 his last four starts. In those 21 innings he's allowed 26 hits and 19 runs! The Mariners are 2-5 in Montgomerys last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Mariners are also 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Twins are 20-7 at home vs. a team with a losing road record. Minnesota's Kyle Gibson (3.48 ERA, 8-8) has been very good and has a winning record at home with a 3.19 ERA. The Twins are 9-1 in Gibson's last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Mariners are 1-5 in the last six meetings, including 1-4 at Minnesota.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:57 am
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Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -116

Edges - Blue Jays: Mark Buehrle 11-3 last fourteen team starts during the month of August, and 10-4 last fourteen home team starts. Royals: Yordano Ventura 3-8 with 7.09 ERA last eleven overall team starts. With the Royals a staggering 2-18 in their last twenty games as a visitor when facing Buehrle, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:58 am
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Tony Karpinski

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -190

Arizona at Houston 710pm EST Astro starter Dallas Keuchel had perhaps his worst outing of the season statistically, getting tagged for ten hits and five runs in a 5-1 loss to the Royals in his last outing.

Dallas Keuchel has been lights out at home this year, and I think he will lead the Astros to another victory here on Saturday evening. Keuchel is 9-0 with a 1.13 ERA at home this year and has not allowed a home run in any of those contests. Look for a major bounce back performance and Houston to get us the win and the cash.

This game has blowout written all over it as Houston has the best home record in the AL and also lead the league in HR's hit.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:58 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -144

The Mets are off a dramatic walk off win by the nearly traded Wilmer Flores. That Momentum should stay with them as the Mets are 16-0 as a home favorite off a 1 run win, 15-1 as a home favorite from 12-5 to -150 and fit a league wide system that is 26-6 and plays on home favorites off a 1 run home win if both teams scored 2 or less run on 5+ hits. The Mets have the Degrominator on the mound. He has allowed just 11 earned run at home in 10 starts spanning 66 innings. He has better numbers than Washington starter J. Ross. Degrom is 10-3 as a favorite 3-0 last starts with a 0.83 era. The Nationals have lost 3 of 4 as a road dog in this range. Mets are 8-3 home in game 2 of a series off a win. Make it the Mets tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:59 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -116

Minnesota dropped one last night, but if the playoffs began today, they'd be the AL's second wildcard entry. Losing at home is a rare occurrence with the Twins owning a 33-21 record at Target Field. Tonight, Minnesota gets "just what the doctor ordered," facing a pitcher who looks to be a bit worn out. Seattle has lost four straight Mike Montgomery starts and he's seen his ERA rise from 1.62 to 3.20 during the steak. Montgomery has allowed 16 earned runs, 38 base runners, and 6 home runs in his last 20 1/3 IP, for a 7.09 ERA & 1.87 WHIP, with a huge, 2.66 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Minnesota counters with Kyle Gibson, who has struggled in his last two outings, but he has been strong at home all season, posting a 3.19 ERA & 1.26 WHIP. Gibson has faced the Mariners four times since the start of the 2013 season and has allowed just eight earned runs and 32 base runners in 25 IP. Look for the Twins to bounce back and land in the win column. I'm recommending a play on Minnesota on Saturday.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 11:59 am
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DAVE COKIN

INDIANS VS. ATHLETICS
PLAY: ATHLETICS +110

Not a lot of great baseball being played by the Indians and A’s. Cleveland has been a disappointment as many thought they would be a contender, but that hasn’t materialized. As for Oakland, they really never seemed to shake the late season fade that afflicted them in 2014 and the team is now in rebuild mode.

Two rookie pitchers will be in action here. Cody Anderson, who opened some eyes in his first four starts, has regressed considerably in his last two. Aaron Brooks is a brand new member of the A’s, having come over from KC in the Zobrist deal.

Brooks interests me here. He’s not a high end prospect, and his one prior big league start was an epic disaster. Brooks was absolutely destroyed in that one game, as he got blown out at Toronto in a memorably awful 2014 appearance.

But Brooks knows this is a great chance to cement a big league roster spot as he takes the mound for his new team. The A’s are looking for some back of the rotation help and if Brooks can pitch respectably here, he’ll have a chance to lock up that spot for the rest of the season. Make no mistake, that’s huge motivation for the rookie. The money and the perks are much better at the major league level, so there’s plenty on the line here for Brooks.

Brooks will also have an apparently substantial rooting section on hand here. He’s a SoCal native, and he indicated to the A’s beat writers that he’s expecting a large contingent of family and friends to make the trip to Oakland for this game.

As for Anderson, he was a bit on the fortunate side in those first four starts, but there has been some serious regression in the last two. Anderson, like Brooks, is a guy who will have to rely on command rather than pure stuff to succeed in the bigs, as he’s not going to be a swing and miss power arm.

The Indians have actually been a good road team, and Oakland has been terrible at home. The Tribe is also on a modest winning streak coming into this one, while the hosts have been playing shoddy baseball and their bullpen is a joke. So it’s not as though this is a no brainer in even a remote way. Nevertheless, I like the idea of backing the rookie with a big rooting section and tremendous motivation. In a game between two teams that will be evidently be playing out the string for the two remaining months, that’s a nice intangible. I’ll take my chances with the A’s tonight.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 12:00 pm
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MMA OddsBreaker

Parlay: Hugo Viana to win (-440) with Jake Shields to win (-165)

Hugo Viana is a very powerful bantamweight with a nasty overhand right. He's facing an Argentina-based fighter in Guido Canetti who doesn't have very good durability and honestly isn't that great of a fighter overall. The only way Canetti can win this fight is if he neutralizes Viana's power with a clinch or ground attack and I just don't see Canetti avoiding the power of Viana for 15 straight minutes.

I'm going to parlay Viana with Jake Shields. Shields is one of the best wrestler/grapplers in the world at 170 pounds and while he's facing a dangerous leg lock threat in Rousimar Palhares, I don't think Shields should have too much of an issue against the Brazilian. Palhares is a one-trick pony with his heel hooks and knee bars and as long as Shields can defend those attacks properly, Palhares will run out of steam and either lose a decision or get finished as he tires.

 
Posted : August 1, 2015 12:02 pm
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