Jimmy Moore
Chicago Cubs -135
The Cubbies are solid on the road and the Brewers are absolutely terrible at home. Hendricks has been perfect against Milwaukee with a 2-0 record and an ERA under 1.00 so he will be very ready here. The Brewers are horrible against right handers so look for Hendricks to have the best of it in this game.
Mr Vegas
Chicago vs Milwaukee
Play: Chicago
Milwaukee has a weak offense, 18th in baseball in runs scored, 22nd in on base percentage. Milwaukee is home from a west coast trip and starter Matt Garza (5.20 ERA, 5-11) has never got it going, with the team 2-4 his last six starts. Garza gave up three runs over 5.2 innings Sunday against the Diamondbacks, picking up the loss as the Brewers were shut out, 3-0. Garza wasn't fooling many hitters Sunday, giving up seven hits and three walks in the outing. He is 2-6 at home. The Brewers are 16-35 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.17, 1-7 against a righty and face Kyle Hendricks, who shut them out over 5 innings in his only start against them. Chicago has a winning road mark and the Cubs are 8-3 in their last 11 road games.
Don Best Consensus
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
The Mets are 3-0 in DeGrom's L3 starts. Since May 16, deGrom is 7-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 91 strikeouts and 11 walks. He's also throwing the ball harder than ever, hitting 99 mph in his last start.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Mets -143
The Mets will be riding a wave of momentum after yesterday's 2-1 win over the Nationals in the series opener. The victory brought the Mets within 2 games of Washington for 1st place in the NL East. Knowing that they have a chance to pull even with a sweep and the emotional boost just got with the trade for Cespedes, makes this a prime spot to back New York, who is a dominant 36-18 at home.
Adding value here is the fact that the Mets will be sending out Jacob deGrom, who thrives in the big moment. In his last start at home, deGrom out performed Greinke in a 3-2 win. The Mets have won each of his last 3 starts and 9 of his last 12 overall. deGrom has been dominant at home, where he has a 1.48 ERA and 0.896 WHIP in 10 starts.
Washington is 1-4 in their last 5 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 1-4 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning record. The Mets are 46-12 in their last 58 home games as a favorite, 12-4 in deGrom's last 16 home starts and 14-3 in their last 17 after a 1-run win.
Andrew Lange
San Francisco at Texas
Play: Texas -125
There have been three no-hitters thrown this season and two of the three pitchers responsible for the feats will square off tonight in Texas with Chris Heston taking on newly acquired Cole Hamels. Despite not having eye-popping stuff, Heston has essentially carried the Giants' staff this season as the team sports a 13-7 record when he toes the rubber. But tonight marks a massive step up in class with an AL lineup suited to hit soft-tossing righties in a hitter friendly park and ultra-warm temps. Just look at some of the instances where Heston was asked to throw outside the comforts of home in a difficult venue. In two outings at Coors Field he gave up 12 earned runs and in Cincinnati he lasted only two innings after giving up seven hits and five earned runs. Some will have some concern with Hamels following his 129-pitch no-hitter against the Cubs. Now all of a sudden he's getting thrust into the American League to pitch in one of the best hitter's parks in the league. Note however that he'll be throwing on a full week's rest and historically, the results following a no-hitter are pretty random meaning there is no reason to think he'll be in poor form. Look for Heston to struggle to night and Hamels to notch a victory -- at a fairly cheap price -- in his Rangers debut.
Wunderdog
Kansas City @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto -123
The Kansas City Royals pulled off one of the biggest moves prior to the trade deadline, as they brought Johnny Cueto into the fold. He made his debut last night, but it wasn't quite good enough, as the big bats of the Blue Jays prevailed in an 8-7 slugfest win. Tonight they turn to Yordano Ventura who has not been pitching well this season, entering with a 5-7 record with a 4.86 ERA. The Jays go with Mark Buehrle, who has always been tough at home over his career and is having an outstanding season at 11-5 and 3.29 ERA. The Royals really struggle on the road vs. a winning team, as they are now 0-7 in their last seven when squaring off against them. Take Toronto.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
LA Angels/ LA Dodgers Under 6 (+105): Lets go with the Under in this game as the pitching matchup is outstanding. Andre Heaney has mad just 6 starts with the Halos this year and has a 1.79 ERA in those starts, while on the road his ERA in 1.26. This guy has been very good this year and it should continue in this big park vs a Dodgers offense that has been inconsistent. Clayton Kershaw comes in on a roll as he has not allowed an ER in his last 3 starts, spanning 26 innings, while in his last 5 starts his ERA is just 0.45. He has a 1.87 ERA at home, with those games averaging just 6.44 rpg. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 meetings and 24-8-1 in Kershaw's last 33 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. This one has classic pitcher's duel written all over it.
2 UNIT PLAY
PHILADELPHIA -124 over Atlanta: The hottest team in baseball right row is... Philadelphia? are you serious? Yep this team has won 11 of their last 13 games since the All-Star break and they should keep it going tonight with one of their better pitching prospects on the mound. Aaron Nola has made just 2 starts for the Phils and he is 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA in those starts. In his lone home start he did lose, but it was just 1-0 and he allowed just 5 hits and 1 ER in 6 innings of work. He will be opposed by Matt Wisler, who is 2-1 on the road, but with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. The Phils offense is in much better shape right now, as they have averaged 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games, while the Braves have put up a mere 1.8 rpg over the same stretch. Overall the Braves have won just 1 of their last 9 games, meaning these teams are clearly heading in opposite direction. The Phils don't have a shot at the playoffs, but they are playing with a ton of heart right now and I see that continuing tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +120 over TORONTO
The Jays were the biggest benefactors in this year’s trade deadline frenzy and there is no question that they are a legit contender. The Blue Jays have reeled off three straight since the dealings began while outscoring the opposition 20-10. There is lots of well-deserved hype surrounding these Blue Jays and for that hype, you’ll pay a premium to back them today. Things is, as good as Mark Buehrle has been, he cannot be favored in this range against the Royals and Yordano Ventura. Buehrle has started 30 or more games in each of the past 13 consecutive seasons. His current 3.29 ERA/1.19 WHIP would rank 2nd/3rd for his career. Buehrle has not allowed more than three earned runs in eight starts at hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this year and that’s something that simply cannot last much longer. We give Buehrle his just due because his baseball IQ is as high as it gets. However, he’s a pitcher that puts the ball in play and that rarely strikes out anyone. At this park, putting the ball in play is rolling the dice and they’ve been rolling Buehrle’s way all season. With a 5% swing and miss rate and facing this strong hitting team, the odds say that Buehrle is about to crap out.
Yordano Ventura is coming off a beauty against Houston in which he went 7 full and allowed just six hits and one run. Ventura didn’t walk a batter while striking out five. Ventura has thrown just 83 pitches this year. He was fighting it for a time and was even demoted for a short period but was recalled very quickly. The reports are that he was sent down to briefly work on his release point. He still averages 96.1 mph on the gun and has a heavy groundball profile (51%) with a low line-drive rate of 18%. He has 12 K’s over his last 11 innings and while the Jays are dangerous, Ventura has thrived against current Jays by allowing just three hits in 19 combined AB’s for a BAA of .158. That’s a small sample size but the fact that Toronto hasn’t seen him much works to Ventura’s advantage.
Cleveland -113 over OAKLAND
We faded Cody Anderson in his last start against the Royals and he was hit pretty hard in an eventual 9-4 defeat. Anderson has now been whacked in back-to-back starts and his stock has dropped considerably because of it. What’s so interesting is that Cody Anderson and the Indians were favored that day against Edinson Volquez and the Royals and now Anderson is a smaller price against Aaron Brooks. That’s value. Read on.
Aaron Brooks appeared briefly in the majors in 2014 after his best season to date in the minors. He’s mostly been a starter throughout his career, signing as a 9th round pick in 2011, but his future may lie in the bullpen. Brooks has a tall, durable frame and uses his arm angle to pitch downhill and keep balls low in the zone. He has four pitches at his disposal, including a 90-94 mph fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Control and command are his best qualities, but his pitch-to-contact nature leaves him susceptible to a high oppBA. Brooks doesn’t miss many bats with his fringy repertoire and the key to his success is pinpoint location. In his brief major-league career covering a mere four appearances, Brooks has been torched to the tune of 18 hits and 16 runs in 7 innings. That’s not a typo either. Brooks has been hanging around minor-league parks for years. He’s already thrown well over 600 innings in the minors with a career record of 42-32 over 111 appearances. His career minor league ERA is a pedestrian 4.21. Right now the A’s are playing out the season. They unloaded some starters and position players and Brooks’ role is that of a fill in until the A’s decide they want to give one of their true prospects a shot. One also has to question Brook’s confidence at this level. He’s been thoroughly annihilated to an extreme degree and it has to be playing on his mind. Now he’s been uprooted to a new team to try and prove himself and that adds even more pressure. Aaron Brooks is more comfortable in the minors and even at that lower level his numbers were below average. Based on value alone, the Tribe are a must play, as we may never see this cheap a price again when Brooks' is starting.
BALTIMORE -1½ +145 over Detroit
The Orioles spotted the Tigers seven runs in the opening game of this series but just missed completing the comeback in an eventual 9-8 defeat. Yesterday, it was much of the same, as the O’s were down 6-0 but rallied back to win 8-7. Those two games pretty sum up the rancid state of this Tigers pen and they figure to get into action once again.Amidst questionable health over the years, consistency in the ERA department has been Anibal Sanchez's calling card. Yet, here we are in August and Sanchez's ERA stands at 4.61 and it’s not likely to improve. Sanchez has walked 14 batters over his last 32 frames. His swing and miss rate has dropped to 8%, down from his career average of 10%. After allowing a mere four jacks all of last year, Sanchez has been taken yard 22 times already this season. Sanchez has been torched in his last three games in which he’s allowed 25 hits (3 bombs) in just 18 innings against Seattle, Tampa Bay and these same Orioles back in Motor City. The O’s only scored two runs in that game after going 1/14 with men in scoring position. In that game, the Orioles had 10 hits and drew four walks but plated just two men. That’s not going to happen again and neither is Detroit jumping out to a big lead. Anibal Sanchex is showing all the signs of serious fatigue.
The Tigers were big sellers at the deadline. They traded away a solid bat in Yoenis Cespedes and with Miguel Cabrera still on the DL it leaves big holes in the middle of that lineup. Now they’ll face Kevin Gausman. Gausman comes in with a 4.20 ERA after 13 appearances with eight of those coming out of the pen. Gausman is not a reliever and never will be. The O’s wanted to work him slowly back into the rotation and he’s about to thrive. Over his last two home starts, Gausman has allowed just 10 hits in 14 innings with a BB/K split of 3/12. He didn’t allow a run in either start. His 14% line-drive rate over 42 innings this year is a small sample but it does stick out. Kevin Gausman came up as one of game's top prospects, so this late surge may be the first step towards a serious breakout and we're investors.
San Francisco +115 over TEXAS
Chris Heston’s skills have surged upon his promotion to the majors. He's doing a fine job keeping the ball on the ground, with a 58% or better groundball rate on four of his five pitches. He's surrendered four home runs in two starts at Coors Field, but only two long balls in his other 18 starts combined. Heston’s leap in strikeouts has been particularly noteworthy, and he's even recorded double digit strikeouts a couple times. Heston has made a significant impact in his rookie season, thanks to a heavy groundball tilt and a jump in strikeouts. He's already delivered a no-hitter, and had several other performances that could be classified as dominant. All that said, this has nothing to do with backing Heston.
We always play against a pitcher that is coming off a no-hitter and that applies to Cole Hamels. What an emotionally draining week this must have been for Hamels. After throwing the no-hitter, Hamels gets traded from Philly, where he’s been his entire career, to Texas. The trade took about 2½ days to complete as the Rangers waited for a medical report. One can only imagine the emotions that Hamels has endured over the last few days. The no-hitter, the trade, the waiting for the trade to be final and the move from his home and comfortable surroundings in a Phillies uniform to this one start. These guys aren’t robots and you can never take the human element out of anything. Giants have a great history of defeating upper-tier starters and this one has to be vulnerable.
Joe D'Amico
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets
New York is creeping up on Washington (2GB) in the NL East and have Jacob deGrom on the mound today. The RH is 10-6 with an anemic ERA of 2.05. The 22-year old boasts a 5-2, 1.48 mark while holding foes to a .207 BA in 10 starts at Citi Field. A combination of inconsistency at the plate and some poor pitching is putting Washington behind the 8-ball. Joe Ross is making just his 6th start since being recalled from Triple-A. The RH has pitched fairly well but gets no run support at all (0-2 L2 as the team scored a total of 3 runs). The Nationals are 28-52 their L86 games played as a road 'dog, 1-4 their L5 vs. teams with a winning record, and 1-7 their L8 overall as a 'dog. The Mets are 46-12 their L58 as a home fav, 38-18 their L56 overall games played at home, and 14-4 in deGrom's L18 starts at home.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -126
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a great frame of mind right now. They just traded for two of the best players in baseball in Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. They are clearly 'all-in' for the 2015 season. They have won three straight coming in while scoring a combined 20 runs in the process behind the best offense in baseball. I look for the Blue Jays to earn their 4th straight victory Saturday due to the massive advantage they have on the mound. Mark Buehrle continues to get it done, going 11-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 20 starts, including 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.149 WHIP in eight home starts. Yordano Ventura is 5-7 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in 15 starts for Kansas City. Buehrle is 26-12 with a 3.55 ERA in 53 lifetime starts versus the Royals. The Royals are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas City is 0-5 in Ventura's last 5 road starts. The Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Brandon Lee
Arizona vs. Houston
Play: Under 7½
Love the value we are getting here with the total set at 7.5 for this matchup. No explanation needed for why I'm not expecting many runs from Arizona, as the Astros send out their ace Dallas Keuchel and his 1.13 ERA and 0.879 WHIP in 11 home starts. The Diamondbacks counter with Jeremy Hellickson, who quietly had a sensational July. In his 4 starts last month, Hellickson posted a strong 1.88 ERA and has allowed just 4 runs in his last 17 innings of work. UNDER is 16-6 in Keuchel's 22 starts over the last 2 seasons as a favorite of -110 or higher and 13-4 in Arizona's last 17 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -142
The Baltimore Orioles are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now. They are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and their only loss came by a single run. They are 52-50 on the season and only one game back in the AL wild card race.
While the Orioles have a great outlook right now, the Detroit Tigers cannot say the same. They are only 3.5 games back in the wild card, but they were sellers at the deadline in trading away David Price and Yoenis Cespedes. The players are in a poor state of mind now mentally.
Kevin Gausman has pitched well in limited action, going 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings this year. Guasman has a 0.00 ERA in two home starts, pitching 14 shutout innings. He'll be opposed by Anibal Sanchez, who is 10-8 in spite of a 4.61 ERA this season.
The Orioles are 66-32 in their last 98 home games. Baltimore is 38-15 in its last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet the Orioles Saturday.
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia Phillies, as I side against the Atlanta Braves for a fourth-straight night with my free play. This continues to be about going against the struggling Braves, rather than siding with their opponent.
I don't trust the Braves at all right now, as their offense produced one run in the series-opener with the Orioles, they were blown out 7-3 four nights back and then were shut out three nights back.
Two nights ago in this series-opener, another putrid performance, as they lost 4-1 and then they get crushed 9-3 last night. Atlanta has struggled so bad, it's now nine back of the Nationals in the National League East, and has lost 10 of 14.
The Braves are 20-37 on the highway and will continue to struggle against a team with nothing to prove. Play the Phils here.
4* PHILADELPHIA
Scott Delaney
My free play is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets, and in this game I want you listing Joe Ross over Jacob deGrom. Yes, I like the young right-hander in this one, over the Mets' steady starter who is 7-2 with a 1.37 ERA, 91 strikeouts and 11 walks since May 16.
It's revenge time for Ross, who lost to the Mets and deGrom once before, and will be out to avenge that setback. I think this might be a good spot for the Nationals, whose lead in the National League East was shrunk to one game, after losing yesterday.
The crafty deGrom is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA this year in three starts against the Nationals, so they know how to beat him. Ross has the poise and composure to perform well, and will be looking to also avenge last Sunday's 3-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Ross, in his fifth career start, allowed three runs on just five hits, and threw only 78 pitches to complete six strong innings.
This will be a pitchers' duel, and the Nats will prevail.
3* WASHINGTON