DAVE COKIN
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS / NEW YORK METS
Take ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
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The Diamondbacks are pretty soft offensively vs. lefties but they're facing Oliver Perez tonight. Perez continues to be big league baseball's wildest pitcher, and it doesn't take more than a couple of well times hits to put up crooked numbers vs. a pitcher who walks this many hitters. Max Scherzer warrants a commanding edge on the mound here. Though the Mets have done well at home recently, I'll try my luck with Arizona here.
Nick Parsons
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LA Angels @ Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Los Angeles was swept in a three-game series at the Metrodome in April, getting outscored 23-12. The Angels again trailed early in the latest meeting, but scored twice in the seventh and once in the eighth to tie it before erupting for six runs in the 11th. Los Angeles will try to extend its winning streak Saturday when it hands the ball to Joe Saunders (8-6, 5.02 ERA), who is 0-2 with a 9.39 ERA in six starts since beating Colorado on June 24. He gave up four runs and a season-high 10 hits in five innings against Cleveland on Monday and I'm expecting him to be in tough again tonight. Minnesota sends rookie Anthony Swarzak (3-3, 3.74) to the mound. The right-hander pitched very well for the second straight start on Sunday, limiting the Angels to one run and four hits in 6 2-3 innings of a 10-1 victory. Look for the TWINS to improve to 14-6 (+5.9 units) as a home favorite of -125 to -150!
Matt Fargo
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Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates
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I am real surprised that the Nationals are favored again tonight. This is a team that has won 12 road games on the entire season and is a road chalk for a second straight night. The Pirates were coming off a dreadful road trip where they went 1-6 including losses in five straight games. They took Game One last night and they are now 27-19 at PNC Park Pittsburgh is one of only eight teams in all of baseball that has yet to lose 20 games on their home field. Virgil Vazquez does not put a lot of confidence into this with his monster ERA but like most Pirates pitchers, he has been solid at home. He has a 3.38 ERA in three home starts and all have been quality outings. Craig Stammen has been solid this season for Washington but he is coming off a very poor start in Milwaukee and I could see that carrying over here. Only five of his 13 season starts have been quality outings including just three of seven roadies.
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3* Pittsburgh Pirates
THE SPREAD
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A’s, 9:20PM ET
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Pick: Toronto
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, 9:05PM ET
Philadelphia is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians, 7:05PM ET
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home
Pick: Cleveland
Tony George
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NY Yankees -142
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After 2 straight losses the red hot Yanks have cooled off, but rest assured they come into Saturday with their ears pinnerd back, and ace hurler A.J. Burnett on the hill who is 10-5 on the year and has won his last 3 starts with a solid 2.25 ERA, just what the doctor ordered after the White Sox lit up the Yanks and their bullpen for 10 runs Friday night in a 5 run loss. Neither bullpen is in good form, and the Yankees are just 2-6 their last 8 road games and are in desperate need of a road win, and I like this spot. Better starter, overall better bullpen, bench, defense and slugging percetage. Goota think Vegas oddsmaker feel the same way with a slightly chalky line here, but worth the stretch in my opinion.
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Play the Yankees
LT Profits
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
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We cashed a nice Under ticket between the Colorado Rockies and the Cincinnati Reds here last night, and we see no reason not to come back with the same play at the same posted total of nine tonight.
Sure, we only covered by one run in the 5-3 Rockies win on Friday, but keep in mind that four home runs were hit in that game, so it is not as if the offenses generated many runs. The Rockies are still batting just .231 as a team over their last 10 games, and the Reds have been even worse, hitting an abysmal .194 over that same period.
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Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez may be just 7-9 on the season, but he is obviously a much better pitcher than that, as evidenced by his fine 3.85 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Jimenez is just now reaching his peak, as he has recorded four consecutive Quality Starts while posting 27 strikeouts in 26 innings. He has also allowed a grand total if two earned runs and nine hits in two career starts vs. Cincinnati, which both came last season.
Now Homer Bailey may have ugly numbers for the season, but he has allowed three runs or less in four of his six starts since re-entering the starting rotation on June 27, including his last start when he allowed three runs on six hits in 7.1 strong innings vs. the San Diego Padres. Remember that Bailey was highly regarded when he was called up a few years ago, so he may be finally starting to mature just now.
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We see no reason for these teams to exceed their total output of last night, especially since it is unlikely they will combine for four homers again.
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Pick: Rockies/Reds Under 9
Bryan Leonard
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3* Houston at St Louis
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The Cardinals are a heavy favorite tonight hosting the Astros and for good reason with Chris Carpenter on the mound. But the line on this game is simply too high considering Wandy Rodriguez is on the mound for Houston. The veteran lefty has been on fire as of late. In his last five starts he has allowed 3 earned runs in 36 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio during that time is 34 to 7. In his first two starts against the Redbirds this year he held them to a .196 batting average and .304 slugging percentage. Last year in four starts the Cards managed just a .222 battling average and .256 slugging percentage. In two starts in 2007 it was a .208 average and .340 slugging percentage. The Cardinals are hitting just .228 on the season vs southpaws, well below their mark against righties. So we're backing a Red Hot pitcher who has dominated this club and yet we're getting roughly 2 to 1 on our money.
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We all know about Chris Carpenter and how good he has been this season. But did you know St Louis is only 9-7 in his starts this year. He can be beaten and there is simply too many reasons not to take a chance today on the large underdog Astros. Houston has won 6 of the last 10 meetings in this series and are worth a serious look here.
Alex Grosse
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Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Colorado Rockies-1½
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This has to be by far one of the best value bets today. The bottom line is that the Rockies are fighting for a wildcard playoff spot and cannot afford to lose this one. The Reds on the other hand, have clearly given up on this season. Cincinnati has dropped 10 of its last 11 contests by a margin of 3.2 points per game. Additionally, there is a huge pitching mismatch in Colorado's favor. Homer Bailey (2-2, 6.87) will take the mound for the Reds. He has struggled immensely as of late with an ERA of 9.39 in his last 3 starts. He will be facing Ubaldo Jimenez (7-9, 3.85) who has been decent all season.Expect Bailey to get shelled. Lay the points on the Rockies.
MTi Sports
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Houston Astros at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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The Cardinals are 20-1 when Chris Carpenter starts at home after a quality start in which the Cards won and the Astros are 0-12 as a road 140+ dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. Consider laying the price.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -150
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The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in Zambrano's last 7 starts against the Marlins and I like the red hot Zambrano to continue his dominance over the Fish tonight. The Cubs has won each of his last 4 starts and are 42-18 in his last 60 road starts. Few starters are better away from home and when you consider that Chicago is 35-17 in its last 52 games as a road favorite, I'm ready to take the plunge with the Cubbies.
Scott Delaney
Off a huge underdog winner on the Indians in a shocker against the Tigers last night, we're siding with a value price on the Yankees tonight.
A.J. Burnett is going to start showing why he was a wise off-season investment. He comes in after a 114-pitch performance on July 27, when he stifled the Rays.
In fact, since a terrible start on June 9 at Fenway Park, the right-hander has been arguably the most valuable pitcher for the Yankees, going 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA in eight starts while the Bombers have won seven of those games. He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA in five starts versus the White Sox
The Yankees have won 11 of their last 15, but they’ve also dropped two of three, and seen their lead in the American League East diminish to 1-1/2 games over the Red Sox.
Must-win situation here, and I like Burnett to pitch the Bombers to an easy win.
1♦ YANKEES
Jake Timlin
Go with the Phillies plus the massive underdog price tag.
Sure, San Francisco is a great home team and they are throwing their ace in Lincecum, but the Phillies a 5-1 winner last night to improve on their MLB best road record I don’t understand why the Giants are such a huge favorite.
Now to slow down the Giants will be Blanton who carries with him a 3-0 mark with an ERA of 1.21 in his last four starts all Phillies wins.
Meanwhile, for San Francisco despite Lincecum posting an 11-3 record the Giants struggled in his starts as of late losing 2 of his last 3 starts due to their awful offense.
Well look for the Giants offense to struggle once again tonight as Blanton and the Phillies make it two straight on the bay.
2♦ Philadelphia Phillies
Tony Weston
The Nats couldn’t quite get it done yesterday and we end up taking a loss. That’s fine because I’m delivering a winner tonight as I’m taking the Tigers on the road at the Indians.
Over their last nine starts the Tigers Rick Porcello and the Indians’ Jeremy Sowers have been the complete opposite of one another.
The Indians have only three wins in Sowers’ last nine starts, while the Tigers only have three losses in Porcello’s last nine starts.
On the road Detroit has won 4 of Porcello’s last 6 starts away from home, while the Indians are just 2-4 in Sowers’ last 6 starts in front of the Cleveland fans.
Also consider that this season the Tigers have absolutely owned the Indians. In 11 meetings this year, Detroit has gone 7-4 against the Indians. Also consider that in four meetings in Cleveland, the Tigers have gone 3-1.
The Tigers will continue their winning ways against their AL Central rival and get over behind Porcello tonight. Pencil in Porcello as your starting pitcher and take the Tigers on the road in this one.
3♦ TIGERS
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
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The red hot Angels come off a rare six-run 11 inning win last night (as +145 dogs) and that sets them up beautifully here as the team is a perfect 10-0 the past two seasons when coming off back to back wins by four runs or more. Starter Joe Saunders finds himself as the underdog here, but that's fine with us as the Halos lefty his seen his club win 12 of his 17 starts in the dog role.
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Play on: LA Angels
Nelly
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Los Angeles Dodgers + over Atlanta Braves
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The Dodgers have cooled off a bit from the hot early season start but this is still the team with the best record in baseball and a 101-run run differential on the season. The Dodgers are 20-10 in one-run games and feature the best bullpen ERA and team average in the National League. Against right-handed starters Los Angeles is 46-28 and on the road 30-22. Atlanta sits just one game above .500 while the Dodgers are 25-games above that mark yet it is Los Angeles that is the underdog today. In every measure except for wins Randy Wolf has out-pitched Derek Lowe this season. Lowe is 10-7 and a fairly big name but he has very mediocre numbers for the year with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 1.71 and he has allowed seven or more hits in eight of his last ten starts. He has only pitched slightly better at home and facing his former team might be problematic, especially backed by much worse offensive support. The Dodgers are batting .293 in the last ten games and after a rare four-game losing streak Los Angeles is back-on-track with two straight wins. Randy Wolf is just 5-5 but his team has won just as many games when he starts as the Braves have won when Lowe starts despite Lowe owning twice as many victories. Wolf has now made six consecutive quality starts and on the road his ERA is 2.91 with a 1.14 WHIP. The Braves are just 1-8 in the last nine Saturdays and that trend should hold up as the underdog Dodgers are in a very favorable position.