Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
302 - 197 run 60 % 50-27 run here
Sat Colo Rockies
8)
Lee Kostroski
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Colorado Rockies
The Reds do not have many attractive options on the mound and once-promising prospect Homer Bailey continues to get starts. Cincinnati is 2-5 in his seven starts this season and his ERA at home is an ominous 6.66. For the season his WHIP is 1.53 and he has just one more strikeout than walk allowed in 38 innings. The Reds bullpen has been a strong point for the season but in the last ten games Cincinnati has a bullpen ERA of 4.60. The Reds are just 8-22 in the last 30 games as underdogs and the season has turned sharply for the Reds since the All Star break, going 3-12.
The Rockies have won eight of the last nine meetings between these teams Colorado is 36-15 overall in the last 51 games to keep pace in the wild card race. Normally in the franchise history the Rockies have been a terrible road team but this season Colorado is three-games above .500 on the road for one of the best road records in the NL. The Rockies had 16 base runners last night in a 5-3 win that saw many missed scoring opportunities and the bats could do more damage today.
Even pitching with a Coor’s Field handicap in half of his starts Ubaldo Jimenez has posted some of the top numbers in the NL. Three fourths of his road starts have been quality efforts and his ERA away from home is 3.74. Jimenez has not allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last 17 starts and his mediocre win loss record keeps the Rockies from being huge favorites in a clear pitching mismatch. Colorado’s bullpen has also stepped up with a 3.00 ERA over the last ten games and in that span the Reds are batting .194.
Reply With Quote
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Mets +135
The Mets are showing excellent value today in this home underdog spot when you consider that they are 22-9 after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 6.2 to 3.7 in these bounce back spots. Perez has been inconsistent for the Mets but I like his chances today as the Snakes are one of the worst hitting teams in the league against lefty starting pitching. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 2-12 in their last 14 road games against a left-handed starter and the Mets are 5-1 in Perez's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cash in with New York.
Michael Cannon
The Rockies come through with the free winner for us last night!
Take the Rays on the run line this afternoon over the Royals.
Jeff Niemann will start for Tampa Bay and he’s 9-5 with a 3.81 ERA on the year. The right-hander pitched a two-hit shutout against Kansas City in his only appearance against them this year.
The Royals will counter with Bruce Chen and you have to wonder what kind of masochist manager Trey Hillman is to keep running him out there. The left-hander is 0-5 with a 6.39 ERA on the year in seven games. Chen has allowed a whopping seven homeruns in just 31 innings of work.
It’s hard to believe the Royals don’t have any other options they can turn to.
Take the Rays on the run line as they grab the easy win.
3♦ TAMPA BAY -1 1/2
Chris Jordan
We're going to lay the chalk with the Rockies in this one.
Colorado won the series-opener last night, and will continue its stretch of winning, while Ubaldo Jimenez will dominate and offense that is averaging 3.27 runs and batting .193 while dropping 10 of 11 over the past couple weeks.
Jimenez has delivered four straight quality strts, and comes in after limiting the Mets to three runs and six hits in seven innings Monday.
The right-hander is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Reds, and I really don't think we have anything to worry about with him taking on Homer Bailey.
The Cincinnati right-hander has a 6.87 ERA this season and lost his only previous start against Colorado, on July 26 of last season, when he gave up five runs and a career-high 15 hits in 4-2/3 innings of a 5-1 setback.
2♦ ROCKIES
John Ryan
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +106
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Pittsburgh as they face Washington set to start at 7:05 EST. Should any team, no matter who starts, be a HOME DOG to the Nats? Yes, some would say this is a potential bettor’s trap, but what more than off sets that opinion is the AiS grading. Following my AiS methodology removes all subjective reasoning, which is a dominant reason so many amateur bettors end up losing money. Note too, that the cast of systems, angles, and game analysis serve ONLY to REINFORCE the grading of the play and to provide meaningful insight to why and how the grading was produced by the AiS. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an amazing 35-8 making 26 units since 1997 for 81% winners. Play against road teams that are average offensive teams scoring 4.3 to 4.8 runs/game facing a poor NL starting pitcher posting an ERA>=5.70 and with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season. Washington is just 1-13 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-27 (-17.2 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 8-28 (-16.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Virgil Vasquez will start for the Pirates and his flash number do not look all that strong, but he has improved greatly with mechanics and his overall approach to pitching – based on published reports. There is also talk that Vasquez may be replaced by Hart in the starting rotation so there is certainly added motivation for him to pitch well against the worst team in baseball. He has a great slider that he throws 26% of the time and will feature it equally to RH and LH hitters. That also reflects the general confidence he has to throw a breaking pitch to a LH batter. You will see him add a solid change to LH batters and replace that pitch with a looping curve to RH batters. AiS shows a 90% probability that he will complete 5 or more innings and should that occur the Pirates then have an 87% probability of winning this game.Take the Pirates
Dave Malinsky
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Over
The last time that Rick Porcello took the mound we put an Over ticket into play, noting how he had literally hit the wall in his rookie season. We lost that ticket, but it had nothing to do with Porcello’s part of the equation – he allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against the White Sox, with an ominous secondary chart that showed that both his home runs and walks allowed exceeded his strikeouts. Or in this case, strikeout, since he could fan only one of the 24 batters that he faced. Now the 20 year old will likely go over 100 innings for the season tonight (he enters at 97.1), and with his confidence wobbling this is not a situation for a turnaround. And keep in mind that his stuff is not all that dominating, but that early-season opponents lacked scouting reports. In four “second look” games it has been an unsightly 7.45 allowance, and this will be the second go-around this season for a Cleveland offense that has been one of baseball’s best since the break.
We write about Jeremy Sowers often, almost always getting the money, and he simply is who he is – a guy that is crafty enough to fool overly aggressive hitters at the AAA level, but just does not have enough pop in his arm to succeed from major League mounds. In going 1-6/6.42, 4-9/5.95 and now 3-7/5.15 the past three seasons the cement is getting dry for his epitaph, and his struggles to get out right-handers makes him a particularly bad matchup vs. the Tigers. Seven Detroit players have at least five career at-bats against him and six of those seven are hitting .333 or better, with Curtis Granderson, Marcus Thames and Miguel Cabrera all having home runs in their portfolios. There is no particular reason to believe any of that changes in this setting.
Not only is there the potential for a lot of early scoring here; the pace never slows down. With neither Edwin Jackson nor Fausto Carmona working many innings last night the bullpens got a high exposure in the series opener, and note that both closers had long stints, with Fernando Rodney going two full innings at 29 pitches, and Kerry Wood 1.1 and 26. That means that the door stays wide open for the hitters throughout in this one.
Dwayne Bryant
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Colorado at Cincinnati
Play Colorado -144
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Reds are just plain awful, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. Homer Bailey owns a 6.87 ERA on the season and a 6.66 ERA at home. His current form is even worse, posting a 9.39 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last three starts. In his lone career start against Colorado (7/26/08), Bailey allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 15 hits in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Ubaldo Jimenez has been solid this season, sporting a 3.74 ERA on the road. He also owns a stellar 1.50 ERA in two career starts against the Reds. The Reds recent woes have a lot to do with their lack of offense. In their last seven games, the Reds are batting a pathetic .180 while scoring just 3 runs per game. Colorado has won six of the last seven in Cincinnati and I see no reason why that dominance would end today. Take the Rockies for a half-unit.
Vernon Croy
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5/-132
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
We are getting solid value here Saturday afternoon with the Rays on the Runline since they have the superior pitcher on the mound and they will be able to give him plenty of run support. Jeff Niemann (9-5, 3.81 ERA) has pitched solid this season with an ERA of just 3.26 at home and he has also pitched solid over his last 3 starts with an ERA of just 2.66 while lasting an average of 7.9 innings per start. Niemann gave up just 2 hits in his only outing against the Royals this season over 9 innings and I look for him to dominate this Royals line-up again today. Bruce Chen (0-5, 6.39) is winless since 2005 and he has struggled on the road with an ERA of 8.05. The Royals are hitting just .239 as a team on the road this season and the Rays are hitting .275 as a team at home while averaging 5.6 rpg. Just one game out of the 13 games that the Rays have won this season with Niemann on the mound was won by just one run. The Royals are just 1-10 in their last 11 games against a right hand starter and they are just 1-5 in Chen's last 6 starts. Take the Tampa Bay Rays on the Runline Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago Cubs -150
The Cubs are a perfect 7-0 in Zambrano's last 7 starts against the Marlins and I like the red hot Zambrano to continue his dominance over the Fish tonight. The Cubs has won each of his last 4 starts and are 42-18 in his last 60 road starts. Few starters are better away from home and when you consider that Chicago is 35-17 in its last 52 games as a road favorite, I'm ready to take the plunge with the Cubbies.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on Boston Red Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play On favorites with a money line of -150 or more (BOSTON) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
77-22 since 1997.
77.8% (39.0 units)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Kevin Youkilis launched a two-run homer in the seventh inning to lift the Red Sox to a 6-5 win over the Orioles on Friday, as -130 favorites. The game's 11 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (9).
David Ortiz also went deep for a two-run dinger in the win. John Smoltz pitched six innings for the win, giving up eight hits and five runs.
Aubery Huff and Nolan Reimold hit two-run homers in a losing cause for the Orioles, who were +110 underdogs. Jeremy Guthrie was tagged for all six runs over 6 2-3 innings of work.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-2 (+6.1 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
JOSH BECKETT vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
BECKETT is 5-2 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.05 and a WHIP of 1.186.
His team's record is 8-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Head to Head
Red Sox are 6-1 in Becketts last 7 road starts vs. Orioles.
Red Sox are 53-17 in the last 70 meetings.
Red Sox are 8-3 in Becketts last 11 starts vs. Orioles.
Red Sox are 62-27 in the last 89 meetings in Baltimore.
Umpire Trends - Jeff Kellogg
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Under is 8-0 in Kelloggs last 8 Saturday games behind home plate.
Under is 6-0 in Kelloggs last 6 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Road team is 8-1 in Kelloggs last 9 games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Under is 5-1-1 in Kelloggs last 7 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Boston.
Home team is 4-1 in Kelloggs last 5 Saturday games behind home plate.
Under is 20-8 in Kelloggs last 28 games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-2 in Kelloggs last 7 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Over is 10-4-1 in Kelloggs last 15 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.
Wunderdog
Washington at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh +105
Washington is 32-71 overall and 12-38 on the road. And we get to fade them at even money? I'll take that all day long. It's not as if we are backing an equally bad team here. The Pirates are also weak on the road, but at home they are 27-19! Their starter today, Virgil Vasquez, has struggled in three road games but at home he's posted a 3.38 ERA. Yes, Pittsburgh's offense has struggled of late while Washington has been scoring. But, the fact remains that Pittsburgh is the better team with plenty of offense to get it done here. Over the past two seasons, the Nats are just 15-31 when favored at -100 to -150. This season they are 17-31 at -125 to +125 and 20-50 after a loss. Should Washington be a road favorite? No way. I'll take the Pirates.
Los Angeles at Sacramento
Pick: Los Angeles +2.5
These two teams have been great over the past decade, making it to the palyoffs with regularity. That was then - this is now. In 2009, these are the worst two teams in the league. I'm backing the second worst team, getting points, in this one. The Monarchs are 6-13 ATS overall and 3-10 ATS against division opponents this season yet they are favored. One of the few things that LA does well is rebound (averaging 45 per game). Sacramento is 0-7 ATS this season against teams that average 42+ boards per game. Sacramento is off a game in which they scored 101 and they are 0-7 ATS this season after scorign 80+ in their last game. They gave up 93 points in that game which can't inspire confidence. I like the Sparks here.
Freddy Wills
Take Tigers -115
Today we will go with the Tigers on the road winners at yesterday's trade deadline against the Indians losers of yesterday's deadline. There is no doubt that Victor Martinez will be missed in Cleveland and it will create a hole in that lineup for sure. Cleveland will send Sowers to the mound on Saturday night and he's coming off probably his best start @ SEA going 7 innings and giving up 4H 0ER. I see him having a let down here as he's 3-10 in his last 13 following a quality start. Sowers has a 6.79ERA in 5 career starts against the Tigers.
Tigers picked up Washburn and he won't be an impact here tonight, but in the near future he will simply make this team better and the bullpen by lengthening games. However, Porcello who has struggled as of late should pitch a quality game vs. the Indians who now have that hole in their lineup without Martinez. In his start on 5/10 vs. Cleveland he went 5IP gave up 5H and 1ER. I expect a similar performance as the Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a RH starter. Tigers are 10-4 in Porcello's last 14 starts and 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite. While the Indians are 2-12 in Sowers last 14 starts vs. the AL Central. Take the Tigers here today!