Karl Garrett
Philadelphia -120 at ATLANTA
For Saturday, I am going with the division-leading Phillies to make it 2 in a row over the Braves.
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Are you like me, and feel Atlanta's recent upswing has been "nice", but it is just not enough? I get the feeling that the Braves simply don't believe in "gut-checks", and last night's game was a game they simply had to win.
Philly will go with the struggling Cole Hamels who has been really hit hard of late, as 10 runs have scored in his last 10 innings of work.
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Countering for the Braves will be Kenshin Kawakami who is fresh off a blistering 7 scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers. I just don't think Kawakami is going to deliver that kind of performance for a second straight game. He is afterall, just 5-9 for the year.
Atlanta had won 5 in a row in the season series, and 7 of the 9 overall meetings prior to last night's loss. It looks to me like Philadelphia has some making up to do.
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Mark the G-Man down for a play on Philadelphia, as they stick another dagger in Atlanta's heart.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Tony Weston
Tough call with the Dodgers last night as they piss down their leg and cost us.
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Forget that as I’m nailing tonight’s winner on the Run Line on the Yankees.
New York is on the West Coast where it has owned the Mariners the last two days and will roll past Seattle once again tonight.
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Through the first two games of this series the Yankees have outscored the Mariners, on average, 7.5-1.5. Consider, too, in their five meetings this season, New York is 4-1 against the Mariners and has outscored them, on average, 6.2-3.6.
Also, over their last 16 meetings the Yankees have gone 13-3 against Seattle, outscoring them, on average, 7-3.2.
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New York will continue its dominance against the Mariners and cruise to an easy win. Take the Run Line on the Yankees in this one tonight.
3♦ YANKEES -1.5
Matt Fargo
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New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
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The Yankees pitching came up huge for a third straight game as they held the Mariners to two runs, making it six runs allowed over that three game stretch. It comes as no surprise however when the three starters are A.J. Burnett, C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. The Mariners get a break tonight finally. The Seattle offense has been producing even fewer runs as it has scored a total of five runs over the last four games. Prior to this series, it faced the White sox and Mark Buehrle and John Danks so it has hit a string of really goods pitching. The Mariners finally bust out tonight as Sergio Mitre takes the mound for the Yankees. He has made five starts for New York, none of which has been quality and in the process has posted a 7.04 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in those games. He has pitched twice on the road and has a 9.82 ERA and 2.59 WHIP to show for it and it is a surprise that he is getting one more shot and this could definitely be his last. In six Major League seasons he has never had a WHIP less than 1.41 and in 57 career starts and 26 appearances out of the bullpen he has a 5.48 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. Lucas French gets the start for the Mariners and since coming over from Detroit, he has been struggling. He has allowed four runs in each of his first two starts and after starting the season well with four starts of allowed two runs or fewer, his latest performances have pushed his season ERA and WHIP to 4.31 and 1.59 respectively. He shut down New York at Yankee Stadium for one run in five innings but a second look at him gives the Yankees a big edge.
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3* New York Yankees/Seattle Mariners Over
DUNKEL
Seattle at NY Yankees
The Mariners look to rebound from yesterday's 4-2 loss and build on their 12-5 record in their last 17 games after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Seattle is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has Seattle favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125).
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 12.657; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 13.819
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 12
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.808; Atlanta (Kawakami) 16.595
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Under
Game 905-906: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.847; Arizona (Davis) 15.554
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under
Game 907-908: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 15.649; Florida (VandenHurk) 15.914
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under
Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.203; Milwaukee (Burns) 15.212
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 13
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-135); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-135); Over
Game 911-912: Washington at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Martin) 16.339; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.156
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Under
Game 913-914: San Francisco at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.111; NY Mets (Santana) 15.268
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Over
Game 915-916: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 15.063; St. Louis (Pineiro) 14.936
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+210); Under
Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.321; Oakland (Gonzalez) 15.033
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under
Game 919-920: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 15.415; Minnesota (Swarzak) 15.737
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Over
Game 921-922: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.486; Detroit (Jackson) 15.827
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-230); Over
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.575; Baltimore (Matusz) 14.542
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over
Game 925-926: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 14.790; Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.953
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-160); Under
Game 927-928: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 15.903; Texas (Holland) 16.302
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under
Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Mitre) 15.535; Seattle (French) 15.731
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Under
WNBA
Los Angeles at Sacramento
On the back end of a home-and-home series, the Sparks look to rebound from last night's loss and take advantage of a Sacramento team that is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win. Los Angeles is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2).
Game 651-652: Detroit at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.520; Indiana 116.910
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 145 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Seattle at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 111.038; Atlanta 117.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 6; 145
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 1; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under
Game 655-656: Phoenix at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.053; San Antonio 109.248
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 178
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix; Over
Game 657-658: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 108.737; Chicago 110.999
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 169
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 161 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over
Game 659-660: Los Angeles at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.380; Sacramento 108.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2 1/2; 133 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2); Under
CFL
Montreal at Winnipeg
The Alouettes look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last six meetings in Winnipeg. Montreal is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-8).
Game 405-406: Montreal at Winnipeg
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 121.352; Winnipeg 106.813
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-8); Over
NFL
Game 267-268: Atlanta at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.781; Detroit 128.428
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); Over
Game 269-270: Chicago at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: N/A
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 271-272: Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: N/A
Dunkel Line: N/A
Vegas Line: N/A
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 273-274: Houston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.227; Kansas City 119.745
Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2); Under
Game 275-276: Cleveland at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 119.273; Green Bay 117.959
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 31
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under
Game 277-278: Seattle at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.677; San Diego 124.905
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 36
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+4); Under
MTi Sports
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Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers put an eight-spot on the board in the bottom of the first yesterday and went on to win 11-2, outhitting the Astros 14-6. Milwaukee is very tough in this spot, going 27-3 as a home favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the first game of a series. We performed some optimization research one this one a bit and uncovered the fact that the Brewers are 33-0 SU (+4.1 rpg) since July 26th 2005 as a home favorite in the second or third game of a three-game series when they are off a win in which they allowed eight or fewer hits and their starter lasted more than five innings. The average winning margin of 4.1 runs per game is very impressive over 33 games.
GREG SHAKER
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San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Play: Mets -125
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Before I get ton's of emails about playing the Mets, let me just go ahead and say, "Yes, I know, the Mets Suck." There ya go. Now there is no reason to email. The Giants are in the playoff hunt but they are not because of their road record, which currently stands at 23-33 after the loss last night to a team that sucks. These Mets Suck. And I know that. No emails please. SF has been very poor with hitting these guys that throw with their lefthand as well. They will positively be in their worst hitting posture facing Santana and the last time I checked, this guy that throws for the Mets, (The Team That Sucks) is pretty good. He was damn good in his last start and he has taken a large liking to Citi Field this year, going 8-2 with a 2.07 ERA in 12 starts, including a 3-0 mark and 1.86 ERA in his last four. Let me make this perfectly clear. Johan Santana does not suck. He has had success with these Giants and the visitors might just be in a bad way today as they have won just 7 times over the last 24 played against Southpaw starters. Heck, they even lost recently to Houston's Hampton and if there is a guy that is doing more sucking than him this year, I want to know. With last night's loss the Giants have lost to the Mets 4 of 5 this year and they have never played well against them. The Mets do not have much to play for anymore because they suck, but they do play harder when Santana is on the mound because they like to see the guy win. He does win a lot. I think the Home Team will suck it up today.
Bob Harvey
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO CUBS
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The Cubs battered the Pirates on Friday 17-2, and didn't even have two of their big sticks in the lineup. Look for another easy win at Wrigley Field on Saturday afternoon.
Chicago native Tom Gorzelanny faces his former team for the first time as the Cubs look for another win over the Pirates.
Aramis RamirezGorzelanny, traded by Pittsburgh to Chicago on June 30, has given the Cubs two starts with two very different results. The lefthander picked up a victory in his first start for Chicago, limiting Cincinnati to one run over 7.1 innings. However he was drilled in his next start surrendering six runs in 1.1 innings Monday in a loss to the Rockies.
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The question is which Gorzelanny shows up today. Then again, It may not matter against a Pirates team that has hit the skids. The Bucs have averaged 2.9 runs in losing 10 of 11 and 16 of 19. They’ve scored just three runs in their last three games and are coming off a 17-2 loss to the Cubs in the series opener.
Zach Duke will take the mound for the Pirates today. He’s 9-10 with a 3.40 ERA overall but has struggled mightily against the Cubs going 0-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 11 outings since last beating Chicago three years ago. Pittsburgh will need a quality start and maybe more from Duke given the sorry state of the Pirates bullpen which has compiled a 7.25 ERA since late July.
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The Cubs, who were missing two starters in Friday’s 17-run explosion, should be at full strength today with the return of Aramis Ramirez and Milton Bradley. Derrek Lee, much to the dismay of the Pirates, will also be in the lineup after knoking in seven runs in Friday's blowout.
It seems like a broken record but the cost-conscious Buccos have once again traded away quality talent in an effort to stock their farm system. Last year it was Jason Bay, this year Nate McClouth. With each trade the Pirates are waving the white flag of surrender and just playing out the string.
Pittsburgh is a dreadful 18-42 on the road this season and 3-13 in their last 16 games at Wrigley Field. Chicago meanwhile is a nifty 34-22 in the ivy this season.
There was no total available at press time. However in their seven series meetings this year the Under is 5-2.
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I’m suggesting a strong play on the Cubs ML today and a lean towards the Under if you can get the number at 9.5 or higher.
Pick: Cubs -155
Vernon Croy
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and Cole Hamels (7-7, 4.77 ERA) has struggled against the Braves this season with an ERA of 8.10 over two starts against them. Hamels has struggled on the road this season with an ERA of 5.59 over 10 starts and the Phillies are just 1-4 in Hamels last 5 starts against a team with a winning record. Kenshin Kawakami (5-9, 4.12) pitched solid in his only start against the Phillies this season where he allowed just 5 hits and 2 earned runs over 6 innings and that was on the road in a hitter's ball park. The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 games after a loss and they are 10-1 in their last 11 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Take the Atlanta Braves Saturday afternoon.
Tom Freese
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Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Over
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Milwaukee is 7-0 OVER their last 7 home games vs. righty starters and they are 8-0 OVER their last 8 games as home favorites. The Brewers are 11-1 OVER their last 12 home games and they are 20-12 OVER vs. losing teams. Houston is 8-3 OVER their last 11 Saturday games and they are 5-0 OVER their last 5 games as road underdogs. The Astros are 9-1-1 OVER in Game 2 of a series and they are 5-0-1 OVER vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Dominic Fazzini
The five-game winning streak on my complimentary selections came to an end Friday, but that just means one thing: Time to start another run!
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Tigers pitchers have thrown 21 consecutive scoreless innings heading into tonight's game, and now Detroit has All-Star hurler Edwin Jackson taking the mound.
Jackson (8-5, 2.79 ERA) has slipped a little over his last three starts, going 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA, and he pitched just OK against Kansas City on May 26, allowing four runs (two earned) and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings.
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However, his mound opponent, Royals starter Luke Hochevar (6-5, 5.38) has been awful lately. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA in his last three outings. He gave up four runs and seven hits in seven innings Sunday against Oakland, which doesn't exactly have a lineup filled with big hitters.
Hochevar is 2-3 with a 7.41 ERA in six road starts, and has a 5.02 ERA in three games (two starts) vs. Detroit. And Kansas City is 3-7 in his last 10 outings away from home, going back to last year.
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Jackson is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 10 home starts, and the Tigers are unbeaten in his last seven starts at Comerica Park.
Detroit is 7-3 against the Royals this year, with its starters going 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA. I think Jackson is going to bounce back today with a strong start, and his offense is going to have a big day against the struggling Hochevar. Take the Tigers on the run line.
4♦ DETROIT -1.5
Drew Gordon
Chi. White Sox at OAKLAND -105
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Now on a 40-30 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chi. White Sox/Oakland match up...
The A's Gio Gonzalaez is a much different pitcher this time around. I know full well critics of this play are touting his dreadful performance against the White Sox last August, where he got tagged for 7 runs in 3 1/3 innings. However, for those of you who haven't been following the A's talented young lefty, he's been superb of late, going 3-0 over his L4 starts, allowing a combined 4 runs over that span! That includes 12 2/3 scoreless innings over his L2 outings, locking down the Rangers and Orioles in the process!
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The White Sox Gavin Floyd gets the nod in this one, and that's been a good thing against the A's, whom he's 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 3 career starts. BUT, that being said, two things bother me about Floyd in this particular start: A. He's on the road, where he's been a disaster, going 4-5 with a 5.76 ERA on the season. And B. He was hardly sharp in his last effort, getting knocked around for 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings (walking 3) against a below average Seattle offense.
Finally, there's no question the A's offense has picked it up of late, batting a solid .296 against righties over their L10 games! It's also no secret they hit righties extremely well at McAfee, averaging 5.1 runs per game in that spot! Granted, the White Sox do hit lefties well on the road, but they're just 4-5 on the road against them in day games, so let's not get too carried away. In the end, the Athletics get back on track behind their surging southpaw in this one!
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Take Oakland behind Gonzalez over the Chicago White Sox and Floyd in this MLB match up.
3♦ OAKLAND
Michael Cannon
Pittsburgh +170 at CHICAGO CUBS
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Take the Pirates as the big road dog for the win over the Cubs this afternoon.
I know I know, the Pirates are awful and are coming off a humiliating 17-2 loss yesterday, but I think that will actually play into their favor today.
Zach Duke gets the start for the Bucs and he’s been the one consistently good player they’ve had this year. The left-hander is 9-10 with a 3.40 ERA on the year and has pitched deep into games in most of his starts which gives the Bucs a chance to win.
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Tom Gorzelanny will start for Chicago against his old team. The left-hander was shelled for six runs in 1 1-3 innings on Monday in an 11-5 loss at Colorado.
Gorzelanny could be the guy the Bucs break out against since they know about him from his days in Pittsburgh and will take a patient hitting approach against him. Gorzelanny’s biggest problem is control, so if the Bucs stay patient they can win this game.
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Let’s take a chance on the Pirates as the big road dog over the Cubs.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
ATS Consultants
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Cleveland Browns/Green Bay Packers OVER 35
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Eric Mangini makes his debut today as Browns coach, and he’ll look to rev up what was a pretty stagnant offense in 2008. With Quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both getting pretty signigicant playing time, expect the Browns to put up some points, like they did back in 2007.
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Green Bay will start year two with Aaron Rodgers behind center. Rodgers wasn’t the problem last year, as he threw for over 4000 yards. Green Bay’s defense simply couldn’t stop anyone. Changes were made, but it wouldn’t be fair to expect results right away. They’ll take some time to adjust, especially in preseason.
Houston Astros/Milwaukee Brewers OVER 10
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Expect a high scoring game tonight at Miller Park as the Brewers try to continue to pound Astros pitching. Last night they put up 11 and tonight should be more of the same against the suddenly relling Astros.
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Brian Moehler (7-8, 5.40) has been awful lately, though his overall numbers aren’t terrible. In his last 5 starts, he’s 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA, but in his last two outings he’s allowed 10 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched. He is rarely able to pitch past the sixth inning, so the Astros already depleted bullpen better be ready to work again tonight.
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Mike Burns (2-4, 5.89) takes the hill for the Brewers, and he hasn’t been good at any point this season. Milwaukee is trying to add a starter via trade, but for now, they’ll have to stick with Burns. He’s 1-2 with a 6.32 in his last 5 appearances, 3 starts and 2 out of the bullpen. He’s allowed 14 runs and 23 hits in his last 15 innings pitched. Not good.
John Ryan
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as the face the Cubs set to start at 1:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 125-102 for just 55% winners. But has made a whopping 64.9 units since 2003 with the average play a dog of +133. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games facing an opponent after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Cubs are not in a good role for this game noting they are 19-28 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games without a stolen base this season. Pirates are 41-40 (+21.2 Units) against the money line in road games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games since 1997. Note too that this angle reflects the success fo playing against favorites over an extended period of time. I always use the analogy to Black Jack and in this case this particular angle would have you playing 81 hands, winning 50% of them and still making 21.2 units in profits. That will never happen at the casino, but it certainly will happen in baseball and by following my research methodologies. Take the Pirates.
Rocketman Sports
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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LA Dodgers is now 69-47 overall this year while Arizona comes in with a 53-63 record on the season. LA Dodgers is 27-8 this year when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. LA Dodgers is 13-4 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. LA Dodgers bullpen has a 3.47 ERA overall this year. Kuroda is 4-2 with a 3.67 ERA on the road this year and 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA his last 3 starts. Dodgers have taken 6 out of 9 against Arizona this year. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!