LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
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The Under is 35-17 in the last 52 meetings between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays including 8-2 this season, and we are looking for more of the same tonight.
Rays starter Scott Kazmir was roughed up by the Seattle Mariners on the road in his last start, but he pitched very well in his previous two starts here at the Trop, allowing a total of four runs in 13 innings with nine strikeouts vs. just two walks. He also has the good fortune to be catching a Toronto lineup that is not hitting nearly as well vs. left-handers (.246) as vs. right-handers (.270) over the last 10 games.
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The Jays counter with fellow southpaw Brian Tallet, who has been very inconsistent this season. However, he can have success tonight, as the Rays have been even worse than Toronto vs. lefties the last 10 games, batting a microscopic .218 against them. Yes, Tampa Bay is averaging 5.20 runs in this span, but they are averaging just 3.99 runs per nine innings vs. left-handers compared to 5.47 R/9 vs. righties.
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Look for the Under dominance in this series to continue for at least one more game.
Pick: Blue Jays/Rays Under 9.5
THE SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
Pick: Philadelphia
Chicago White Sox at Oakland A’s
Chi White Sox are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 8-17 SU in their last 25 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 17-8 SU in their last 25 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Pick: Oakland
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Dodgers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pick: LA Dodgers
Tom Stryker
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Arizona ace Dan Haren did what he was supposed to do last night leading the Diamondbacks to just their third victory against the Dodgers in their last 14 tries. I sure hope 'Zona enjoyed that victory because its the only one they're going to pick up in the rest of this series.
Toeing the rubber tonight for the Dodger Blue will be their hottest arm Hiroki Kuroda. In his last five starts against the Giants, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins and Astros, the foreign right hander has been in a zone allowing 11 earned runs and 32 hits in 29.1 innings of work. LA is a perfect 5-0 in those five games and Kuroda owns a blistering 3.38 ERA! Hiroki has been solid on foreign soil too. As a guest, No. 18 has surrendered just 20 earned runs and 40 hits in 43.0 frames. That's good enough for a 4-2 record and a solid 4.19 ERA.
Arizona's Doug Davis has pitched well in his last four starts too. The D'Backs are 4-0 in those four games and Davis has been nicked for only six earned runs and 17 hits in 26.0 innings of work. That adds up to a respectable 2.08 ERA! Unfortunately, with No. 49 on the hill, Arizona has dropped five of its last seven to division foes and 19 of its last 26 priced as an underdog.
One thing LA has been able to do is bounce back off a loss - now 40-19 in its last 59 tries. Equally impressive, the Dodgers have cashed 48 of their last 69 against division foes. Manager Joe Torre doesn't like Colorado creeping up in the standings and he'll have his troops prepared to play well in this important NL West battle. Take Los Angeles with listed pitcher Kuroda.
Mike Rose
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +8
The Alouettes responded to their first loss of the season by thoroughly dominating the Argonauts in Week 6 CFL betting action. The Als pitched a shutout, a rarity in the CFL. The defence was absolutely swarming, as the unit picked up seven sacks and forced three turnovers en route to the 25-0 whitewashing. QB Anthony Calvillo did everything except throw for a touchdown in the game, completing 35 of 43 passes for 395 yards. Montreal may have the best offensive numbers in the league, but without better efforts in the red zone, the team wont win the Grey Cup. CFL wagering pundits are critical of the fact that the Alouettes have had problems punching the ball into the end zone from the 20 yard-line in, which is why K David Duval has had so much work to do this season.
Through one half of football, the Blue Bombers looked like they were going to get their doors absolutely blown off by the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium. In spite of a 23-3 halftime deficit, the Bombers beat the Canadian Football betting lines by running the ball down Calgarys throat in the second half. Both RB Fred Reid (17 carries, 167 yards, 2 TDs) and RB Yvenson Bernard (6 carries, 54 yards) had tremendous games. QB Michael Bishop is going to be the key against the Alouettes though. He completed 16 of 30 passes for 209 yards in his second game with the Blue Bombers. If it is going to make the postseason, Winnipeg is going to need a lot more from its new signal caller.
On one glance, it sure looks like Montreal is the proper play. Its defence is crushing opponents right now, and with a brand new quarterback still getting used to things in Winnipeg, life could be difficult for the Bombers offence. But this is a new day, and Bishop will be making his debut at home. Remember, Winnipeg already destroyed Calgary at home this season, and though the Blue Bombers may not put up the outright W this week, expect to see a close enough contest to stick within the number against the defending Eastern Division champs.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs
The Pirates have played well at home, but when they take to the road, the wins have been hard to come by as they enter this one at just 18-42 on the season, or winning at a 30% rate. The Cubs really get it turned up playing against the poor teams in the league at home, as they have compiled a 53-19 record against them, or a 73.6% winning percentage. Take those percentages and look at this line, and ask where the value is in this one? Zach Duke has pitched well for the Pirates, but with that said, they have still lost seven of his last eight starts and on the road, they have dropped eight of his last nine. This one shows solid value for the Cubs across the board, so Chicago gets the call here.
King Creole
Chicago White Sox w/ Floyd @ Oakland Athletics
Play: UNDER the TOTAL
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TODD TICHENOR gets the call 'gericht dahinter' (Behind the Dish) in Oakland on Saturday afternoon. He comes in with a 9-14-1 O/U record on the year. Not a bad overall "UNDER" percentage at 61%. But his current results are what has us excited. TICHENOR has gone 0-3 O/U in his last three games... with an average of only 5.3 combined runs per game. In 'Righty vs Lefty' pitching matchups, the overall record for the year is only 2-6 O/U (7.3 RPG).
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This is historically a LOW-scoring series. Oakland and Chicago are 17-36-3 O/U vs each other in the last 5 seasons.... 3-11 O/U in the last 2 years... and 1-4 O/U so far in the 2009 season.
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Both starters enter in good form. Gavin Floyd has gone 1-4 O/U In his last 5 starts, and his ERA is only 2.567 in his last 4. A strikeout-to-walk ratio of 20-5 in his last 3 starts is an indicator of a solid outing. He's already faced the A's once this year, and allowed only 2 earned runs in 7 innings... in a 6-2 win. ERA vs the A's is only 1.35 in the last 2 seasons. Rookie Gio Gonzalez of Oakland is off back-to-back SPARKING performances. He allowed ZERO earned runs in his last starts vs the Orioles.... and ZERO earned runs in the start before that against the Rangers.
GoodFella
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TOR (-105) vs TAM
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Tampa Bay returns home after a 6 game West Coast road trip, which saw them go (1-5) on the trip, including a 3 game sweep by the Angels. This can be a very difficult spot for teams, playing your 1st game back at home coming off a road trip on the OTHER SIDE of the country. Tampa Bay's bullpen has been atrocious lately. Here are Tampa Bay's team bullpen numbers their L/6 games: 21 IP, 15 runs, 21 hits, 5 BB, for a 6.43 ERA and a WHIP of 1.238. The BlueJays bullpen their L/6 games= 21 2/3 IP and a solid team bullpen ERA of 3.32. Tampa Bay starter James Shields has been very inconsistent all season and he is just 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a WHIP of 1.612, in his L/3 starts. For Toronto, Halladay has been good everywhere he has pitched this season. Roy has made 3 starts vs Tampa this season and here are his numbers: 22 IP, 6 ER, 18 hits, 5 BB, 25 K's, for a 2.45 ERA and a WHIP of 1.045. I look for another strong outing out of Halladay tonight & I look for the Rays to continue to struggle tonight and drop their 1st game back at home coming off the West Coast roadie.
BIG AL
Pittsburgh v Chicago Cubs
Pick: Under
At 1:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates 'under' the total. New Cubs lefthanded starter Tom Gorzelanny didn't have to wait long to face his old club. After two starts in a Chicago uniform (the first one good; the second one not-so-good), the fifth-year veteran will now get a start against the only other Major League team he's played for and the team that finally gave up on the once highly-touted southpaw. Gorzelanny should relish this opportunity to show the Cubs management that it didn't make a mistake by trading for him as the Pirates don't seem to have much firepower right now having only managed to score more than four runs in one of the last six games, and in only two of their last 11. And against the Cubs recently, it's been even worse for the Pittsburgh hitters as heading into this series, the Pirates have only scored more than two runs once in their last six games against Chicago, and they have only totaled 10 runs during that same time-frame, including last night's 17-2 blowout at Wrigley. At 18-42, the Pirates have the second-worst road record in all of baseball and only the Nats (at 15-42) are worse than Pittsburgh is away from home. Take the 'under.
Yankee Capper
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Chicago Cubs RL +120
LA Dodgers -125
Philadelphia Phillies -115
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Seattle Seahawks +3.5
Evan Altemus
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Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Play: CHICAGO
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This price is very cheap for a quality team against the lowly Pirates. Pittsburgh gave up 17 runs yesterday, and today they have to face off against their former starting pitcher, Tom Gorzelanny. I obviously expect him to be focused against his former team. He is a very good young starting pitcher, despite his short outing against Colorado in his last start. He injured his foot in that game but all reports are that he is 100%. Zach Duke has pitched fairly well, but Chicago has faced him enough to know his stuff. The Cubs are the much better hitting line-up and play very well at home. Look for Chicago to get the win.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
Boston at Texas
Play: TEXAS
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I always look for a chance to fade Brad Penny on the road. He is overvalued in every road start because of pitching for the Red Sox. However, Boston has been a poor road team this season, with a road record of three games under .500. Texas has a strong starting pitching advantage with Derek Holland getting the start. Holland has been getting better and better with each start, including his three hit shutout of the LA Angels his last start. He pitched fairly well at Boston earlier this season, only giving up four runs. I expect him to pitch better today, while Texas should hammer Penny. Take Texas at the cheap moneyline price.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
Michael Alexander
Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Texas looks to bounceback after last night's 9th inning collapse when they take on the Boston Red Sox in game 2 of their weekend series. Tonight the Rangers send left-hander Derek Holland to the hill. Holland is 5-7 with a 5.04 ERA overall but has been effective since the All Star Break going 2-2 with a 3.23 ERA in five starts.
The Red Sox counter with veteran right-hander Brad Penny. Penny has not been all that impressive this season with a 7-6 makr and rather high 5.16 ERA. Penny has had problems with the Rangers going 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts.
Texas has also feasted on right handed pitching at home this season. I'm taking the Rangers in this one
Scott Rickenbach
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Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10
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Last night’s game went over the total only because of an amazing five run rally by the Red Sox in the top of the ninth. That’s right, five of the Red Sox runs last night all came after there were two outs in the top of the ninth. Making this even more unusual is that the Rangers bullpen has been rock solid this season and hasn’t blown a game in that fashion since September of 2007. Last night’s result is currently helping to hold this total at a ten when, the reality is, the posted total should be lower. Both the Red Sox and Rangers have struggled to equal the quality run production they’ve exhibited in prior seasons. They have both been “under” teams this season and this pitching match-up today also supports an under.
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In addition to two (normally!) solid bullpens, we also can feel each of these starting pitchers will be very effective. Boston’s Brad Penny continues to do a great job of keeping his team in games. Best described as a veteran that tries to simply “outthink” the hitters, we feel Penny can do a great job in this spot on Saturday. The Rangers are loaded with free swingers and we look for Penny to hold the Texas sticks “in check” for much of the way in this one. As for the Rangers starting pitcher, Derek Holland, another brilliant outing can be expected. Holland is simply “in the zone” right now and his long-term numbers are helping to give us line value. That’s because the long-term statistics aren’t doing justice based on how well he’s currently throwing. Keep in mind, Holland is a young hurler and his growth appears to be sharp as he’s already improved by “leaps and bounds”. More of the same on the way tonight. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Saturday night.