Ben Burns
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New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Chicago Bears
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I successfully played against the Bears in their Week 1 loss at Buffalo. This should be a good spot to play on them though. For starters, they're now at home, playing their preseason home opener. They're also catching the Giants playing on a short week, as New York played vs. Carolina on Monday night. Additionally, with Cutler and co. anxious to improve on their Week 1 performance, we should get a highly motivated performance from the players.
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Cutler, in particular, should be anxious to play well. After a sub-par outing in his Chicago debut, he was quoted as saying: "I feel fine. There's no reason for anybody to start to panic or anything like that..."
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The Giants, on the other hand, have little to prove. They're two years off a World Championship and they won the division again last season. Additionally, they already won their preseason home opener. In other words, they shouldn't be feeling any pressure to come up with a win here.
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With the Giants having lost three straight preseason road games, consider a play on Chicago
Carlo Campanella
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Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Carolina Panthers
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The Panthers lost 17-24 to the NY Giants on the last play of the game to open the Preseason last Monday night. Carolina failed to cover the spread in that game, but still remain one of the most profitable teams in the road Dog role during Preseason play while owning a 29-15 ATS record behind Head Coach John Fox. Take the points with the Panthers on Saturday in Miami against a Dolphins squad that only put up 12 points last week. These Dolphins will struggled once again to put points on the scoreboard as they won 11 games last season in the Wild Cat offense and committing an NFL low 13 Turnovers. With the starters on the bench, the back-ups won't run the Wild Cat effectively and they shouldn't be expected to not commit turnovers!
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7* Play On Carolina
LARRY NESS
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
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Jim Zorn was one of four new head coaches heading into the 2008 season and he led his team to an 8-8 record. One could argue that was fairly good. However, the other three first-time head coaches (John Harbaugh of Baltimore, Mike Smith of Atlanta and Tony Sparano of Miami), all led their team's to 11 wins in the regular with all three of them reaching the postseason. Zorn won his NFL coaching debut in last year's HOF game (30-16 over the Colts) and then won his next two games as well, 17-14 and 13-10. However, the 'Skins would lose their final two preseason games 47-3 and 24-3. Note that after that HOF game, Zorn's team scored just 36 points over the final four games of the preseason. Washington opened this year's preseason by losing 23-0 at Baltimore, getting held to just 11 FDs (1-of-11 on 3rd downs) while rushing for only 56 yards (on 19 attempts for a 2.9 average) with three QBs combining to complete 15-of-29 passes for 140 yards (0 TDs / 1 INT). The Steelers, last year's Super Bowl champs, won a rematch of that game with the Cards on August 13, 20-10. The Steelers played at Washington on a Monday night last season and physically dominated the 'Skins. Washington was held to 221 yards and 13 FDs in that 23-6 loss, converting 3-of-15 third downs and 0-2 fourth downs. With a menagerie of starters and scrubs in this game, don't expect the Redskins to have much more success this time around. Even with "Big Ben" sitting this one out, let's take the Steelers.
MATT FARGO
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins
PICK: Washington Redskins -3
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Washington was embarrassed in its preseason opener at Baltimore as it was shutout while tallying just 196 total yards of offense. Facing Pittsburgh may not seem like the way to bounce back but playing their first home game with some extra motivation is a big benefit. Washington head coach Jim Zorn's noted that a lot of the Redskins played “soft” and you know that the effort will be better this week. The intensity level was noticeably higher at the first two practices after that game and carrying that over into Saturday is the goal. The Ravens didn't allow Washington inside the 30-yard line and they stopped the Redskins on 10 of 11 third down attempts. However, Washington players admitted it wasn't the Ravens who held the Redskins scoreless as much as it was the Redskins committing too many mistakes. The big concern heading into the preseason was the offensive line as that was considered the main cause for the second-half meltdown last season. Against Baltimore, the coaching staff was pleased about the line's performance in pass protection. The first-team unit struggled throughout camp but fared well in its two series against the Ravens. The play of veteran quarterback Todd Collins was especially positive as he completed 8 of 11 passes for 70 yards. He looked very smooth running the offense which was much better than at this point last season when he was frustrated playing behind bad protection and with subpar receivers. The Steelers won their preseason opener against the Cardinals in a Super Bowl rematch but the 20-10 score was a little deceiving. The Cardinals ended up outgaining Pittsburgh, 329-259 and that should be favorable this weekend. Pittsburgh had trouble running the ball, gaining just 90 yards on 32 carries (2.8 ypc) and it allowed Cardinals quarterbacks to complete over 53 percent of their passes. Those are two areas that Washington will work on. We catch a solid number here as well as last week’s results have pushed Pittsburgh into the role of road favorite and at this point of the preseason that should not be the case.
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3* Washington Redskins
Vernon Croy
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
I had the Brewers last night as my MLB Smash and tonight I will take them again at a great price against a very bad Nationals team. The Brewers have been hitting the ball extremely well with 10 or more hits in eight of their last ten games and they were hitting .309 as a team before last night's game. Mike Burns (3-4, 5.36 ERA) pitched solid in his last outing allowing just 4 hits and 2 earned runs over 7 innings and John Lannan (8-9, 3.68 ERA) has allowed 7 or more hits in seven of his last nine starts. The Nationals are just 6-12 in Lannan's last 18 starts at night and I look for the Brewers to continue to hit the ball hard here Saturday night. Take the Milwaukee Brewers as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.
Bob Harvey
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
Play: Over 9.5
Get ready for another slugest tonight in D.C. as the Brewers and Nationals seek their sixth straight OVER.
One of the National League's top young pitchers will be going for the Nationals in the middle game of the three games series Washington's John Lannan has struggled in his last three starts going 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA and topping the total to the tune of 2-0. However his body of work for the 2009 season has been solid. Lannan is 8-9 with a 3.68 ERA and he's been "lights out" at home. The former Washington Huskie is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA. Not surprisingly in games Lannan has pitched the OVER is 16-8 and 9-4 to the high side at home. Lannan is the classic soft-tosser. He's got just 67 strikeouts on the season and his game is all about finding the strike zone and staying there.
The Nationals will also need some innings from Lannan. The less you use the Nat's the better for them. Washington's ranks dead last in all of baseball. Opposing batters are hitting .263 and the Nats pen has a 17-33 record.
Mike Burns gets the start for the Brewers tonight and his work this campaign has been less than stellar. Burns is 3-4 with a 5.38 ERA. He like Lannan has been scuffed up in his last three outings going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA. Burns has also been susceptible to the long ball surrendering nine big flies in 45+ innings.That could spell trouble against the likes of Adam Dunn who has hit 32 homeruns on the year and nine since the all-star brreak. Ryan Zimmerman is also licking his chops for a chance to face Burns. Zimmerman is hitting .300 on the season with 24 roundtrippers.
The two teams are 5-0 vs.. the OVER this year and it's tough to buck that trend in this situation. Prince fielder and Ryan Braun are still bashing and with Dunn and Zimmerman posing a 1-2 power combination another OVER should materialize tonight. While I suspect that Lannan will be better at home there's still that control issue. That could prove costly against a Brewers team that is undergoing a roster transformation but stll remains potent. J.J. Hardy was sent to the minors, Bill Hall was traded to Seattle and Milwaukee has a wavier claim in on Doug Davis. While the faces may change, this team can still mash.
The suggested play tonight is on the OVER as the Nats and Brewers play another edition of homerun derby.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
When Oakland sends Trevor Cahill to the mound against Armando Galarraga at the Coliseum this evening they will do so knowing Galarraga has dropped 6 of his last 7 team starts and 9 of his last 13 on the road. With Cahill cashing in 6 of his last 9 home team starts, look for the A's to improve to 10-2 the last twelve games as a host in this series tonight.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Tampa Bay (0-1 SU and ATS) at Jacksonville (0-1, 0-0-1 ATS)
A pair of Florida rivals clash in Week 2 preseason matchup when the Buccaneers travel to face the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Tampa Bay fell at Tennessee 27-20 as a 4½-point underdog last Saturday, ending a 7-0 SU and ATS streak in preseason openers. Luke McCown got the start last week, but Byron Leftwich – the former starting QB for the Jags -- will open with the starters today as the two continue their battle for the No. 1 quarterback spot. Leftwich will likely play much of the first half, followed by McCown, with Josh Freeman and Josh Johnson in mop-up roles for new coach Raheem Morris.
Jacksonville lost its opener at Miami 12-9, getting a push as a three-point underdog. QB David Garrard, who took over the starting job full time when Leftwich was let go prior to the 2007 season, played three series last week, and coach Jack Del Rio said Garrard will go “a little longer” than that this week. Todd Bouman and Paul Smith will follow Garrard.
The Buccaneers, who went 3-1 SU and ATS in each of the past two preseasons under former coach Jon Gruden, had won and cashed in three straight exhibition road games before last week’s setback. Tampa is 5-6 SU and 5-4-2 ATS in road preseason play since 2004, and in that stretch, the Bucs are a middling 4-4-2 ATS as a pup.
The Jags, who went 3-1 SU in the preseason for the fourth straight year in 2008 and the fifth time in Del Rio’s six years with the team, are on an 8-4-1 ATS roll in their last 13 exhibition affairs. However, they failed to cash in either home game last year (1-1 SU), and though they are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home August contests, they are just 5-5 ATS.
Jacksonville is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry in preseason play, including a 23-17 road win last August laying three points.
The over has been the play in the last four exhibition contests between the Bucs and Jags, and the over is 6-2 in Tampa’s last eight preseason games, including last week’s contest against the Titans. However, the under is on a 3-1 preseason run for Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
Pittsburgh (1-0 SU and ATS) at Washington (0-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers won’t have star QB Ben Roethlisberger at their disposal when they travel to FedEx Field for a meeting with the Redskins.
In a Super Bowl rematch of sorts, Pittsburgh topped Arizona 20-10 on Aug. 13, covering as a three-point home chalk in its preseason opener. Roethlisberger played two series and was to start this week, but he injured his right foot late in practice Thursday, and though he traveled with the team, he’s not expected to play tonight. Charlie Batch should get the start under center and may play the entire first half, followed by youngsters Dennis Dixon and Mike Reilly.
Washington also opened on Aug. 13, getting thumped 23-0 as a three-point pup at Baltimore. QB Jason Campbell, in for the first two possessions last week, should play much if not all of the first half this week, with Todd Collins relieving, followed by Colt Brennan.
The Steelers went 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) on the road in the 2008 preseason, and they are 3-6 ATS in their last nine exhibition roadies dating to the 2004 season, including a 1-4 ATS mark on the highway the past three summers. That said, Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU in August since Mike Tomlin took over as coach (5-5 ATS).
The Redskins are 2-4 ATS in the preseason under coach Jim Zorn, who took over in 2008. Furthermore, Washington is 5-12 SU and ATS in its last 17 exhibition contests, including a current 1-4 ATS skid at home (0-2 ATS last year).
Dating to 2005, the under is on a 12-2 preseason tear for Pittsburgh, and the under is 4-1 in Washington’s last five August games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Carolina (0-1 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS)
The Dolphins remain at Land Shark Stadium for a second straight week when they take on the Panthers, who are on the road for the second week in a row.
Miami eked out a 12-9 victory over Jacksonville on Monday night, getting the push as a three-point home chalk, with heavy second-half rains hindering the offenses for both teams. QB Chad Pennington, who came out after one quarter last week, should go further this time around, though the starters are expected to get their most extensive play next week. Chad Henne and rookie Patrick White will follow, though coach Tony Sparano refused to reveal the order in which his backups will enter.
Carolina lost to the Giants 24-17 Monday on a fluky 18-yard fumble return for a touchdown as time expired, failing to cover as a three-point road ‘dog. QB Jake Delhomme, in for three series last week, could go a bit longer today, though Panthers coach John Fox was mum on his plan. Josh McCown should spell Delhomme, followed by Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell, who led an 88-yard TD drive last week that tied the game at 17.
Miami is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in preseason play, but over the past five years, the Dolphins are a more mediocre 6-5 SU and 4-5-2 at home in August. They are also 2-4-2 ATS in their last eight as a preseason chalk.
Carolina is 17-8 SU in the preseason since 2003 (14-11 ATS), but the Panthers have lost three straight exhibition roadies (1-2 ATS), and they’re 3-6 ATS in their last nine preseason road tilts.
The over is on a 4-1 roll for Carolina in the preseason, but the under is 7-1 in Miami’s last eight exhibition games, with the last five in a row falling short of the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Cleveland (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, hoping to build on a win last week following their record-setting 0-16 regular-season campaign last year, hit the road to face the Browns.
Detroit got a last-second Jason Hanson field goal to beat Atlanta 27-26 a week ago, though it failed to cash as a three-point home favorite. Veteran Daunte Culpepper got the start and went three possessions before giving way to No. 1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford, but that won’t be the case this week. New head coach Jim Schwartz said Stafford (7 of 14, 114 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT last week) start tonight and play into the second quarter, followed by Culpepper and Drew Stanton.
Cleveland lost at Green Bay 17-0 last Saturday as a three-point underdog, meaning the Browns’ offense hasn’t scored a touchdown since Nov. 17, in a regular-season tilt at Buffalo. Brady Quinn started at QB against the Packers and went one series, followed by Derek Anderson for the next two possessions. But new Browns coach Eric Mangini has been noncommittal all week as to whether Quinn or Anderson will lead the starting offense today. Brett Ratliff will likely be the third QB off the bench, with Richard Bartel possibly seeing mop-up duty..
As bad as their 2008 regular season was, the Lions are on a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS) in exhibition play. Detroit is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four road preseason games. On the flip side, Cleveland is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five summer affairs, including 0-3 SU and ATS at home.
The under had hit in four of five preseason games for Detroit prior to last week’s “over,” and the under for Cleveland has been the play in three straight August contests and seven of the Browns’ last 10 exhibition outings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Buffalo (1-1 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (1-0 SU and ATS)
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will try to build off an impressive Week 1 victory when they host the Bills at Lambeau Field.
Buffalo ended a six-game preseason home losing skid (both SU and ATS) with last week’s 27-20 win over Chicago as a three-point favorite. Coach Dick Jauron said QB Trent Edwards and the starting offense will certainly play the first quarter and into the second depending how the game goes. Look for backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to play through the third quarter and then it’ll be Gibran Hamdan taking the snaps in the final period.
The Packers, who are shooting for their first winning August since 2002, blanked the Browns 17-0 as a three-point home favorite in Week 1. Mike McCarthy’s QB rotation is set with starter Aaron Rodgers (102 yards and a 119.6 passer rating last week) playing into the second quarter. He’ll be followed by Matt Flynn for the rest of the second quarter and the third quarter, with Brian Brohm taking the fourth-quarter snaps.
The Bills, who pushed as a three-point underdog in a 21-18 loss to Tennessee in the Hall of Fame Game on a neutral field two weeks ago, are 6-0 ATS on the road in August under Jauron. They’re also 9-0-1 ATS as an underdog in preseason play since 2004.
Despite shutting out the Browns, the Packers are still just 5-8 SU and 6-7 ATS in three-plus years under McCarthy. Green Bay has not won or covered both exhibition home games since 2002, but it has followed up an 0-4 ATS slump in preseason play with three straight spread-covers dating to Week 3 last August.
The over is still 9-4 in Green Bay’s last 13 preseason contests (5-2 at home)s, and the Bills have topped the total in their first two exhibition games. However, Buffalo’s last eight true road games in preseason action have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
New Orleans (1-0 SU and ATS) at Houston (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Saints and Texans clash in Week 2 of the preseason for the second straight year, this time at Reliant Stadium in Houston.
The Saints had little trouble with the Bengals in their opener, cruising 17-7 as a three-point home chalk, though they got outgained 379-316. Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints starters will play most if not all of the first half. Third-string QB Joey Harrington, who threw just three passes in the fourth quarter last week, will replace Brees and may play the remainder of the game. If backup QB Mark Brunell – who saw extensive action against Cincinnati – sees any time it will be late in the fourth quarter.
The Texans went to Kansas City last week earned a sluggish 16-10 victory as a three-point road pup. Coach Gary Kubiak said QB Matt Schaub, who went 7-for-7 for 70 yards last week, will be on the field with the rest of the starters for about 25 snaps against New Orleans, which should equate to the midpoint of the second quarter. QB Dan Orlovsky will lead the offense from there and play at least through the third quarter. If Orlosvky doesn’t finish the game, newly signed Alex Brink will, as No. 3 QB Rex Grossman injured his hamstring last week and is out for at least a month.
New Orleans has won and covered four straight preseason road games and went 4-1 ATS as an underdog the last two summers.
Houston, which is now on a 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS roll in August, has won four of six preseason home games since Kubiak took over in 2006, but is just 2-2-2 ATS. The Texans have won and covered four straight years in Week 2 of the exhibition campaign – including a 31-27 win at New Orleans last year – but that was all as an underdog. As a preseason chalk, Houston is just 1-4-2 ATS since 2004.
The under is 9-3 in the Saints’ last 12 preseason affairs (4-2 on the road). Also, Houston has stayed low in its last two exhibition games after topping the total in its previous seven in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
N.Y. Giants (1-0 SU and ATS) at Chicago (0-1 SU and ATS)
Jay Cutler makes his Solider Field debut when he leads the Bears against Eli Manning and the Giants.
Cutler was shaky last week at Buffalo, going 5-for-10 for 64 yards with an interception as the Bears fell 27-20 as a three-point underdog. Bears coach Lovie Smith said Cutler and the rest of the starters will play into the second quarter in this contest. Behind Cutler are inexperienced passers Caleb Hanie and Brett Basanez.
New York got a fumble return for a touchdown on the final play of the game Monday to knock off Carolina 24-17 as a three-point favorite. While Giants’ coach Tom Coughlin didn’t come out and give specifics for tonight’s QB rotation, Eli Manning will most likely play the first quarter before giving way to backup David Carr, who has been locked in a tough duel with Andre Woodson for the No. 2 job. Look for Carr to play the second quarter and midway into the third before Woodson calls the plays the rest of the way.
Chicago is now mired in a 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS funk in preseason action, and has failed to cover in five straight exhibition home games (1-4 SU). The Bears are also 3-11-1 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2002.
The Giants are 12-8-1 ATS in preseason action since Coughlin took over in 2004, including 3-1-1 ATS since last year. However, they’re just 3-4 SU and ATS on the road in August under Coughlin and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six as a preseason pup.
The over for Chicago is on preseason streaks of 7-2 overall and 4-1 at home, but the under is 8-5 in New York’s last 13 August contests (3-1 “under” last four true road games).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Oakland (1-0 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
After making headlines all week for allegedly punching one of his assistant coaches, Raiders coach Tom Cable returns to the sidelines when he leads his squad across the bay for their annual preseason battle with the 49ers.
Cable’s preseason debut was a resounding success as Oakland throttled the Cowboys 31-10 as a 1½-point home favorite, finishing with a 182-yard edge in total offense. Cable said his starters will play the entire first half against the 49ers, with the exception of QB JaMarcus Russell, who will play into the second quarter before veteran Jeff Garcia takes over and plays with the first-string offense for the remainder of the half. Bruce Gradkowski will lead the offense in the third quarter, followed by Charlie Frye in the fourth.
The 49ers held off Denver 17-16, but came up short as a 1½-point home chalk in Week 1. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill, who are battling for the No. 1 quarterback job in San Francisco, will both work with the first-team offense tonight and receive about the same number of reps as last week when each played a couple of series. Smith, who relieved Hill in Week 1, will get the start. Jamie Martin, who didn’t play against the Broncos, likely will replace Hill, leaving Damon Huard as the odd man out.
The Raiders have lost five straight preseason road games (1-4 ATS). In fact, they’re 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as a preseason visitor since 2005. Meanwhile, with the victory over the Broncos, San Francisco improved to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home since the start of the 2005 exhibition campaign. However, the Niners have now failed to cover in four of their last six as a preseason favorite.
The home team is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry over the last four preseasons.
The under is 13-5 in Oakland’s last 18 August contests and 8-2 in its last 10 on the highway, but the over is 5-3 in San Francisco’s last eight preseason games (3-1 at home).
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego (0-1 SU and ATS) at Arizona (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Chargers hit the road for the first time this summer, making the short trek to Arizona to battle the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
San Diego had little trouble moving the ball against Seattle last week, piling up 384 yards (including 329 passing), but it struggled to put points on the board and lost 20-14 as a 3½-point home chalk. Earlier this week, San Diego coach Norv Turner informed his starters to be ready to play the entire first half tonight, and the team will stick with its quarterback rotation of starter Philip Rivers, backup Billy Volek and third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who saw his first preseason action in four years with a four-carry effort last week against Seattle, will play again tonight and see about the same about of action.
Arizona came up short in its Super Bowl rematch against the Steelers, losing 20-10 as a three-point road underdog. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said Kurt Warner will once again start under center and play the first quarter and possibly into the second along with the rest of the first-stringers. This week, though, Warner will be followed by Brian St. Pierre, who flip-flops with Matt Leinart, who is battling St. Pierre for the backup job and will be third off the bench.
The Chargers split their two preseason road games last year, but cashed in both, and they’re 3-1 SU and ATS as an August visitor since 2007, with the lone non-cover coming in a 33-31 win at Arizona as a 2½-point chalk in 2007. Also, San Diego is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games after a SU preseason defeat.
The Cardinals have lost all four preseason home games under Whisenhunt (1-3 ATS), and they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a preseason chalk (0-3 ATS last two years).
Since 2006, the over is 7-4 for San Diego in preseason action, including 4-1 on the road, and 7-4 for Arizona in exhibition play, including 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and OVER
Denver (0-1, 1-0 ATS) at Seattle (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos head to the West Coast for the second week in a row when they invade Qwest Field for a clash with the Seahawks, who look to continue their preseason dominance.
Denver spotted the 49ers a 9-0 lead last Friday, then battled back to get within 17-16 on Chris Simms’ 52-yard TD pass with less than two minutes to play. Rather than settle for overtime, though, the Broncos went for two and failed, but still covered as a 2½-point underdog. QB Kyle Orton, whose three series against the 49ers all ended with an interception, is slated to start this contest, though new coach Josh McDaniels didn’t reveal his plans for playing time. As was the case last week, though, Simms will replace Orton, while rookie Tom Brandstater will likely see his first NFL action late in the second half.
Seattle rallied past the Chargers 20-14 as a 3½-point underdog last week and has now covered in seven straight preseason games (6-1 SU). New Seahawks coach Jim Mora said he plans to play his starters through most, if not all, of the first half, though it’s likely that veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck will be among the first to leave the field. Once he does, longtime backup Seneca Wallace will take over, followed by Jeff Rowe and Mike Teel, who are dueling for the third-string job.
Going back to 2002, Denver is 10-5 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in exhibition road games, including 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the highway (3-3 ATS). Also, the Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS as a preseason underdog since 2005.
Since the final week of the 2006 preseason, Seattle has won eight of its last 10 exhibition contests, going 9-1 ATS. During this stretch, the Seahawks are 5-0 SU and ATS at home, all as a favorite.
The over is 4-2 in the Broncos’ last six August road games (both “unders” coming in San Francisco). Also, Seattle is on preseason “over” streaks of 13-6 overall (9-3 last 12) and 4-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SPORTS ADVISORS
N.Y. Yankees (77-45) at Boston (69-52)
The Yankees send veteran right-hander A.J. Burnett (10-6, 3.69 ERA) to the mound at Fenway Park looking for their sixth straight win over the rival Red Sox, who will counter with young righty Junichi Tazawa (1-2, 5.40).
New York got a pair of three-run homers and seven RBI from Hideki Matsui in Friday night’s 20-11 laugher in Boston. It was the fifth straight win for the Yankees this month over their rivals, coming on the heels of an eight-game losing streak to the Red Sox to start the season series. Even with Friday’s victory, the Bronx Bombers are still just 1-7 in their last eight games at Fenway.
The Yankees continue to be the hottest team in baseball, currently on runs of 39-13 overall, 9-3 on the road, 24-7 against the A.L. East and 53-24 as a favorite. Meanwhile, the BoSox fell to 1-11 in their last 12 as an underdog last night, but they remain on streaks of 37-17 at home, 5-2 as a home ‘dog and 90-41 at home against right-handed starters.
Burnett has been mediocre since dominating the Red Sox on Aug. 7, allowing a combined six runs on 16 hits in 14 innings of work in his last two starts. Against these Sox two weeks ago, Burnett yielded just one hit over 7 2/3 scoreless innings of a 2-0 home victory. It was New York’s first win over Boston with Burnett on the hill this season (1-2). Behind Burnett, the Yankees are on runs of 8-2 overall, 5-0 versus the A.L. East, 10-2 when he’s a favorite and 10-3 when he gets a full four days of rest.
Tazawa is making just his third career start tonight, having faced the Tigers and Rangers over the last 11 days. He’s allowed a combined seven runs (five earned) on 14 hits in 10 innings of work and Boston has split the two contests.
New York is on a plethora of “under” runs with Barnett on the hill, 9-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, including 8-1 as a favorite, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 5-2 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Yankees have topped the total in 11 of 15 roadies against winning teams and five of six against right-handed starters.
Boston has gone over the total in eight of its last nine home games and five of six at home against right-handers, but as a team the Red Sox are on “under” streaks of 20-7-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 on Saturdays and 9-3-1 in the second game of a series.
Finally, this series has produced “unders” in six of the last nine in Boston and five of the last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
BIG AL
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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
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Cleveland lefthander Aaron Laffey has been one of the few bright spots for this team in 2009, going 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA. And Laffey seems to be doing it with smoke and mirrors so far as the third year southpaw does not throw hard and has a strikeouts to walks ratio of just slightly over 1:1. But you can't argue with success and Laffey has won his last three starts and four out of his last five, having beaten the Twins twice, the Rangers, and tonight's opposition, the Mariners back on July 24. Seattle rookie righthander Doug Fister has been impressive in his first three Major League appearances (two starts) but this is a guy who has never pitched above the AA level in the Minors and last season at AA West Tennessee, Fister was anything but impressive, going 6-14 with a 5.43 ERA, so there is no reason to believe that the 25-year-old will continue his winning ways in the Major Leagues much longer. Supposedly Fister has a fastball that rarely reaches the 90 MPH mark, and that could be trouble tonight in a ballpark that's not very kind to batting practice-type pitchers. Laffey is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Mariners in two starts this year and he has struck out 10 in 13 innings against Seattle. Take the Indians.
Rob Vinciletti
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LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: LAA Angels
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The Angels are a fantastic day time team.They are 26-9 Straight up under the sun and average 6.3 rpg.La is 11-4 as a road favorite in this range and are a solid 10-1 off back to back losses.Over the past 7 games the Angels are hitting almost .300 and scoring 6.5 runs per game.Today they have E.Santana pitching and they have won 6 of his 8 road starts this year.Toronto is is just 8-17 vs winning teams in the second half and are hitting a paltry .246 over the last 7 games.On the mound for the Jays is S.Richmond and he has been sub par over his last 3 outings with a 5.52 era.Take the La.Angels.
DAVE COKIN
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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS / HOUSTON TEXANS
TAKE: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
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The Saints-Texans clash has suddenly gotten very interesting for a meaningless pre-season contest. That's thanks to some nasty activity in Thursday's scrimmage between the two teams. There were a number of fights, and one of them apparently went beyond what usually takes place in these scraps. Some of the Texans referred to some of the Saints as cheap shot artists, and I suspect there could be a decent level of intensity on both sides tonight. Both teams did a good job last week, however the Texans were very poor in third down situations. I prefer the New Orleans QB rotation, so I'll go the Saints way tonight in what shapes up as a potentially physical confrontation.
JIM FEIST
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DETROIT TIGERS / OAKLAND ATHLETICS
TAKE: DETROIT TIGERS
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While Oakland is looking to get out of last place, the Tigers are maintaining their slim lead on first place in the AL Central. It's been a good run, while winning 5 of 7 games. They take on a light hitting Oakland team. A's starter Trevor Cahill (6-12, 4.97 ERA) has struggled all season and the Tigers smacked him around hard (7 hits, 7 runs in 2+ innings) in the one team he faced them. Cahill has an 0-2 record and a 4.74 ERA his last three starts. Play the Tigers.
DUNKEL
Seattle at Cleveland
The Mariners look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is just 9-20 in its last 29 games as a home favorite between -110 and -150. Seattle is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Mariners favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120)
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 15.261; LA Dodgers (Haeger) 15.160
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over
Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Lehr) 14.365; Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.472
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-135); Under
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Burns) 15.366; Washington (Lannan) 14.352
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+130); Over
Game 957-958: Arizona at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 14.713; Houston (Moehler) 14.290
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-125); Over
Game 959-960: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.351; Atlanta (Hanson) 16.480
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-175); Under
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 16.428; NY Mets (Redding) 14.995
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-230); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-230); Under
Game 963-964: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Martinez) 16.895; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.744
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+165); Over
Game 965-966: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.279; San Diego (Correia) 14.181
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-225); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-225); Under
Game 967-968: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.351; Toronto (Richmond) 15.009
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over
Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.172; Boston (Tazawa) 15.611
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.223; White Sox (Danks) 14.506
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+180); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 16.116; Cleveland (Laffey) 15.674
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over
Game 975-976: Texas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Hunter) 15.945; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.359
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Over
Game 977-978: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 15.173; Kansas City (Davies) 14.551
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Under
Game 979-980: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.188; Oakland (Cahill) 14.874
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-115); Over
WNBA
Detroit at Chicago
The Sky look to bounce back from their loss to Phoenix and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3)
Game 651-652: Minnesota at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 108.737; Connecticut 115.974
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 7; 149 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-4 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Detroit at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.520; Chicago 113.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 147 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 655-656: Washington at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.261; Sacramento 108.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 157 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3; 150
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over
Game 657-658: Indiana at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 110.109; Seattle 113.243
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3; 139
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2); Under
NFL
Game 411-412: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 120.858; Jacksonville 124.413
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 30
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Under
Game 413-414: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 123.251; Washington 118.722
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 33
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+1); Over
Game 415-416: Carolina at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 120.106; Miami 124.460
Dunkel Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 28
Vegas Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 33 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); Under
Game 417-418: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 120.522; Cleveland 120.631
Dunkel Line: Even; 32
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3); Under
Game 419-420: Buffalo at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 120.774; Green Bay 124.127
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over
Game 421-422: New Orleans at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 122.812; Houston 123.593
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over
Game 423-424: NY Giants at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 121.337; Chicago 121.298
Dunkel Line: Even; 33
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2); Under
Game 425-426: Oakland at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.037; San Francisco 124.453
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 36
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3); Under
Game 427-428: San Diego at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 122.336; Arizona 124.905
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1); Over
Game 429-430: Denver at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.740; Seattle 125.677
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5; 38 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over
Jeff Benton
Hope you enjoyed yet another easy free-play winner Friday on the Cowboys, who blasted the Titans. I’ve now hit three consecutive freebies and I’ve nailed four of my first five NFL comp plays. For Saturday, I’ll stay with preseason action and play the Bills plus the points at the Packers.
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No doubt Green Bay looked pretty damn good in last week’s 17-0 shutout of the Browns as a three-point favorite, outrushing Cleveland 230-59 and holding a 2-to-1 edge in time of possession. But the Bills looked sharp last week, too, beating the Bears 27-20 and holding a 375-225 edge in total offense. QB Trent Edwards was especially sharp, going 10-for-10 for 79 yards, and that was without the services of WR Terrell Owens (who remains injured and won’t play tonight either).
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As a team, Buffalo’s quarterbacks completed 29 of 34 passes for 252 yards, and that was against a pretty good Chicago defense. Tonight, the Bills face a defense that obviously had a good day against the Browns, but the Browns’ offense stinks. Also, it must be noted that Green Bay has switched its defensive scheme, and if you ask anyone who follows football, they’ll tell you that when teams switch offensive or defensive schemes there are always growing pains in the preseason. Thus I fully expect the Packers’ D to have a much tougher time tonight against a Bills offense that probably will see its most extensive action so far.
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Then there’s this: When it comes to the preseason, the Bills have been money in the bank both on the road (six straight wins and covers since Dick Jauron became the coach) and as an underdog (9-0-1 ATS when catching points in the preseason since 2004). By the same token, while the Packers won and covered last week, they haven’t gone 2-0 SU and ATS at home in preseason play since 2002! The fact this number is inching up past a field goal in certain spots is all the more reason to like the Bills. Grab the points.
3♦ BUFFALO