Jake Timlin
Take the Lions plus the points as they continue to shine in the preseason.
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Building off last week’s weeks outright home win over the Falcons, I look for the Lions to make it six straight preseason wins today as they take full advantage of playing a bad Cleveland team.
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You see for Cleveland with their 17-0 loss last week to Green Bay the Browns have now failed to score a touchdown in their last seven games. Even worst for Cleveland is they have lost their last seven games overall and their last five preseason games both SU/ATS, including three straight games at home.
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So sticking with the trends and feeling that Detroit will be the better prepared team I look for the Lions to continue being a great preseason team as they take care of business today against a struggling Cleveland team.
2♦ Detroit Lions
Tony Weston
Absolutely brutal call with the Titans yesterday as the Cowboys come out big and destroy Tennessee.
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I’m headed out to the NFL’s preseason where I’m taking the Bills on the road at the host Packers.
Coming into this game the Packers have gone just 6-7 ATS over the last 13 preseason games under head coach Mike McCarthy.
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On the other side, the Bills have been nothing but a money maker in the preseason.
Buffalo has covered in 6 straight games on the road and have not lost a preseason game when installed as an underdog, going 9-0-1 ATS their last 10 games when catching points.
Buffalo will cover once again on the road as it cashes in at the Packers in this one.
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3♦ BILLS
Bobby Maxwell
Chicago Cubs at L.A. DODGERS -115
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Today's FREE winner is coming from Los Angeles as I am all over the Dodgers at home to continue to beat up on the Cubs.
The Cubs are sinking fast and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better for Chicago. I'm playing the Dodgers to make it three in a row over Chicago today.
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Los Angeles won Thursday's game 7-2, and then got a great pitching effort on Friday and won 2-1. Today look for the Dodgers to put up some runs and win this one with ease.
Chicago is on slides of 15-39 as a road 'dog, 8-22 on the road against winning teams, 3-9 overall and 1-6 against the N.L. West. The Cubs are 0-4 in Ted Lilly's (9-7, 3.42 ERA) last four road outings, including on Monday in San Diego when he blanked the Padres on four hits over six innings but San Diego still prevailed 4-1.
Lilly faced the Dodgers back on May 29 and allowed just one run on four hits in seven innings of a 2-1 Chicago win.
Lefty Charlie Haeger (0-1. 3.86) goes for the Dodgers, making his third career start after giving up three runs in seven innings of a 3-2 loss to the Cardinals on Monday. But the pitching is not the reason we're playing the Dodgers. Los Angeles has won seven of the last nine meetings and five of the last six in Los Angeles.
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The Dodgers are on runs of 62-27 as home favorite and 23-10 at home against southpaws. Play Los Angeles at home in this one.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Dominic Fazzini
Philadelphia at N.Y. METS
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The Yankees cleaned up Friday night as a run-line pick, 20-11 at Boston. That gives me nine wins in my last 13 complimentary selections, including two straight! I'm ready to ride this hot streak through the weekend with another run-line play today!
Rookie J.A. Happ (9-2, 2.66 ERA) has become a stopper for the Phillies. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last three outings, and each of those starts came after Philadelphia losses. That's the case again today as Happ faces the Mets, who beat the Phillies 4-2 on Friday night.
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Happ is 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 14 road games (nine starts) this season. He allowed one run and three hits in 7 2/3 innings Sunday at Atlanta.
New York right-hander Tim Redding (1-4, 6.53) gets the start today after the Mets released Livan Hernandez on Thursday. Redding struggled in the bullpen recently, giving up six runs and eight hits in four innings over his last two appearances.
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He wasn't much better in his nine starts earlier this year, going 1-3 with a 6.99 ERA, and he is just 1-2 with a 7.17 ERA in 12 home games (four starts) this season.
Redding did pitch well in a June 11 start against the Phillies, allowing three runs and six hits in seven innnings, but I don't expect him to duplicate that feat today.
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As beaten down as the Mets are, I just can't see them taking two straight games from the world champs. Take the Phillies on the run line today.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA -1.5
Karl Garrett
LA Angels -120 at TORONTO
Friday comp play winner on the Yankees for ya!
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On to Saturday, and the Blue Jays barely held on last night, leading 5-0 in the 9th before securing a 5-4 win to snap their 5 game slide.
G-Man expects Toronto to head right back to the loss column this Saturday afternoon, as the Angels are still a whopping 22-8 their last 30 on the road, and they have also been a winner their last 8 Saturday contests this season.
In head-to-head meetings, the Halos have garnered the "W" in 7 of the last 11 meetings, and they will have the resurgent Ervin Santana on the mound.
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Santana has won his last 3 starts, and is 5-1 his last 7 season starts to even his record at 6-6.
Toronto starter Scott Richmond is also 6-6, but he comes into this start with an 0-2 mark his last 3 starts, and a 1-3 mark his last 5 trips to the bump.
To get the Angels at this low of a price is an offer too good to pass on.
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G-Man backing LA to even things in this weekend set on Saturday afternoon.
3♦ LA ANGELS
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at BOSTON
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Friday night comp play winner on the Dodgers, as we are now on a 21-9-1 comp play run the last 31 days.
Last night's OVER marked the 8th time in Boston's last 9 home games that they have eclipsed the posted total.
The way the New York sticks swung the bats with a vengeance last night leads us to believe that the Yankees will be capable of putting up another big number in this late day contest at Fenway on Saturday.
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Expect another OVER between the Yankees and the Red Sox in game two of their weekend set.
AJ Burnett has allowed 6 runs over his last 14 innings of work, and in his 2 season starts at Fenway Park, Burnett has surrendered 11 runs in just 8 innings of work.
His couterpart Junichi Tazawa allowed 4 runs in his last start which lasted just 5 innings in a loss at Texas.
New York has played 3 of their last 5 OVER the total, while Boston has been OVER in 3 of their last 4.
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Just too much offense being flexed right now by the Bronx Bombers for us to think that we are staying UNDER in this one.
Play on the OVER.
2♦ OVER
Tony George
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LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
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I like LA here, they are 8-0 the last 8 Saturdays and I have rode them for 3 of those 8 wins as featured plays. Coming off a 1 run loss with their starter Sean OSullivan getting just 1 inning of work, I like them to bounce back today with Ervin Santana on the mound who is 3-0 his last 3 starts with a 3.00 ERA. The bullpen for Toronto is approaching a 6 ERS their last 3 and I fully expect the Angels bats to take full advantage of that scenario today late in the game. Toronto just 4-9 their last 13 home games and Scott Richmond their starter is just.500 at home this year as a starter.
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PLAY the Angels
Drew Gordon
Detroit at OAKLAND
Now on a 43-34 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Detroit/Oakland match up...
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Coming off a nice win over the A's yesterday, behind their best arm in hostile territory, Edwin Jackson, I'm looking for different results Saturday night. You see, while Jackson was able to help the normally road-weary Tigers seal the deal with 6 solid innings last night, expecting the same out of Armando Galarraga is foolhardy at best. Read on...
After enjoying a relatively decent month from late-June to late July, Galarraga has been a disaster since losing at Texas July 27th. Over his L4 starts, he's allowed 17 runs on 29 hits over 22 2/3 innings. And yes, I know he was sick last week, but if that's your excuse... Then how do rationalize his career 6.97 ERA against the Athletics in 6 game (4 starts)?! Point being, this is a bad spot for the Tigers righty, as he's struggled against Oakland in the past, and it won't get any easier tonight.
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Herein lies the problem for Tigers and Galarraga, as their matched up against the A's suddenly surging rookie Trevor Cahill, who's last two starts have shown plenty of promise, pitching back-to-back quality efforts! His numbers on the season are nothing to write home, but it appears as though the rookie is finally starting to "get it," allowing 5 runs over his last 13 innings, at Baltimore and against the White Sox respectively. There's a reason the A's are even money in this contest besides Galarraga's slide, and that reason is Cahill's recent surge.
Finally, not only is the A's offense hitting righties well, batting .285 against them over their L10 games. But, individually both Jack Cust & Ryan Sweeney have hit Galarragas extremely well in the past, combining to go 9 for 16 with two dingers! Couple that with a Tigers pen that's posted a 4.65 ERA over their L3 games, and add in a little bit of Detroit's typical road weariness, and you've got all the makings of a solid bounce back win here for Oakland tonight.
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Take Oakland behind Cahill over Detroit and Galarraga in this MLB match up.
2♦ OAKLAND
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
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The Rays are a sure bet when favored by $1.50 or more, going 64-15 in that role since the start of the '08 season. That includes a 38-8 record at home when priced lower than $1.75. Texas' scoring output drops to a hair above four runs per game on the road and they'll have a hard time solving Tampa starter Matt Garza, who has posted a 3.21 ERA in 13 starts at Tropicana Field this season.
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Play on: Tampa Bay
EZWINNERS
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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
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The Mets have had a horrible, injury filled season and things only got worse when they lost their last healthy star David Wright to a concussion after being hit in the head by a Matt Cain pitch. The Phillies are gearing up for another World Series run and they have played excellent on the road this season where they are 36-20. That is +$1755 for a $100 bettor who wagered on their road games. The Phillies have also won the games they are supposed to win as they are 10-1 in their last eleven games against a team with a losing record. Philadelphia sends J.A. Happ to the mound and he has pitched outstanding this season. Happ is 9-2 on the season with a 2.66 ERA and has pitched even better than that recently posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of only 1.19 in his last three starts. The Mets counter with Tim Redding making a spot start. Redding is just 1-4 this season with a 6.53 ERA and an even worse ERA of 8.59 in his last three starts. The Phillies have one of the most prolific offensive lineups in baseball while the Mets depleted lineup is one of the worst. The Phillies have also won five straight games between these two teams. No reason that should change. Play on Philadelphia on the runline.
ATS Consultants
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Detroit Lions +3 over Cleveland Browns
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In Preseason, most NFL teams like to get their youngsters as much time as they can. Today Matthew Stafford will get a lot of action tonight as the Lions prepare for the future. Considering they were 0-16 last year, that’s a great idea as things have to improve. As for Cleveland, the QB battle between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson continues, as coach Eric Mangini has yet to commit to one for the season.
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Look for the Lions to play “all out” for most of this game as they look to set a solid foundation for what has to be an improvement over last year’s dismal effort.
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LA Angels/Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5
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We all know the Angels can hit, as the other night they became the first team in MLB history to have all 9 starters batting .300 or higher. Their pitching is generally solid with guys like John Lackey and Jered Weaver at the top of the rotation. However, Ervin Santana has not found himself yet in 2009 after a breakthrough 16 win season in 2008. Santana is 6-6 with a 6.25 ERA so far in ‘09 and has battled inconsistency all year. He’s 3-1 with a 5.28 ERA in his last 5 starts.
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Rookie righty Scott Richmond (6-6, 4.01) has been a bright spot in a dismal year in Toronto. He’s come out of nowhere to establish himself as a solid starter after a few injuries sidelined other Jays starters. He hasn’t been very good lately, as he’s 1-3 with a 5.25 ERA in his last 5 starts. That doesn’t bode well against this Angels club.
John Ryan
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San Diego Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: San Diego Chargers +2.5
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Diego as they face Arizona set to start 10:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 48-22 for 69% winners since 1999. Play on dogs or pick after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the third week of the preseason. Here is a second supporting system that has produced a mark of 28-9 ATS for 76% winners since 1999. Play on dogs or pick off an upset loss as a favorite in the third week of the preseason. SD is a solid 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a home loss since 1993; 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) after playing a game at home since 1993.
Tom Freese
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St Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Under
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San Diego is 11-5 UNDER their last 16 home games vs. righty starters and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 home games. The Padres starter Kevin Correia has allowed just 8 runs total in his last 4 starts. Correia is 8-3 UNDER his last 11 games as an underdog. St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter has allowed 11 runs total in his last 6 starts. St. Louis is 7-2-2 UNDER their last 11 games as road favorites. Carpenter is 6-1 UNDER in his last 7 starts and he is 14-1-1 UNDER his last 16 Saturday starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Cleveland Indians -125
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We fell with the Tribe on the premium side Friday, but I don't see the M's, one of the worth hitting teams in the league against southpaw starters, taking it to a lefty 2 days in a row, especially when that lefty is Aaron Laffey. Laffey is 4-0 at home with a 1.59 ERA this season and 3-0 over his last 3 starts with an even lower 1.35 ERA. In fact, he is 9-1 with an ERA of 1.82 at home since May 2008. I'll take the Tribe to bounce back for 1 unit today.
Tom Stryker
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Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Carolina Panther +3
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Off Monday night's loss in the Big Apple, I'm going jump all over Carolina plus the points here.
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According to my NFL Pre-Season database, game two exhibition guests have produced a profitable 93-64-5 ATS record provided they enter off a straight up loss in their opener. If our road team is matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up win, this system tightens up to a remarkable 46-29-1 ATS. Finally, with those two parameters applied and our "play on" team off a blowout loss of seven points or more, this technical gem improves to a juicy 32-12 ATS! Carolina fits the general situation and both special parameters!
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As a preseason underdog, Carolina has cashed 18 of its last 30 battles. The Panthers looked pretty bad offensively against the Giants in their last game. Watch Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme crank things up a notch and lead the Panthers to the endzone early. Take Carolina plus the points.