Evan Altemus
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TOR / ANA Under 9.5
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Toronto righty Scott Richmond has pitched very well this year and has pitched better and better throughout the season. The Angels have never faced him before, so they will not be familiar with his stuff. The Angels have cooled off their hot hitting in their last few games, yet oddsmakers still have their totals inflated. Ervin Santana has pitched much better over his last two starts, and I expect him to pitch well again today and go deep into the game. In addition, both line-ups will be a little sluggish because of the early start to this game. Look for this game to fall under the total.
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2 UNIT SELECTION
SPARTAN
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Philadelphia at NY Mets
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I am suggesting a wager on the Phillies as they meet the Mets once more in New York. It has been an incredible for rookie southpaw J.A Happ, 9-2 with a 2.66 era. I feel the young pitcher also gets a great draw here as the Mets give the ball to grizzled veteran Tim Redding, 1-4, 6.10. Redding takes the rotation slot previously held down by Livan Hernandez who pitched himself right out of a job. Sorry but I've seen this movie before, too many times. I'll be shocked if the Phillies don't get us a run line victory. My clients know I refuse to play heavy chalk, I'll leave that to the squares. I'm going RL here and taking Happ over Redding all day long.
Ron Raymond
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Cincinnati – Pittsburgh: UNDER 8
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When PITTSBURGH played as a home team - During Current Season - Won Last Game by 3 Runs or Less; The UNDER is 13-4-0 for the Pirates in this spot.
Philadelphia – NY Mets: OVER 9
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When PHILADELPHIA played as any home/road team - During Last 2 Years - With 1 Under or Less - Lost Last Game by 2 Runs or Less - With SU Record of 2 Win 1 Lost in L3G; the OVER is 7-3-1 for the Phillies in this role the L2Y.
Nite Owl Sports
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New York Giants @ Chicago Bears -
3 units Over 35
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We like the Over in this game, particularly due to Chicago's strong over tendencies in pre-season games over the last three years (except for their annual NFL-X "snorefest" vs Cleve in final week of pre-season, which has gone 5-0 to the under L5 years). And Bears have been a particularly strong home over for last three years, going 4-1 to the Over in those five games (again, excluding their 28 point home snorefest vs Browns in 2007), averaging 47 total ppg in those five, including two barnburners vs SF (for 59 and 67 total points) last year and the year before, both at Soldier Field.We played and won the Over in Bears' week one loss at Buffalo last week, and anyone who either saw that game or even just glanced at the stat sheet had to be blown away by the pitiful performance of Chicago's secondary, which looked like a circus act of dancing bears in giving up 252 yards passing and allowing completions on 29 of 34 passes thrown by three different Bills QBs, making all three look like bona fide pro bowl candidates, as the mediocre Bills offense cut through the defenseless Bears like a knife through butter. And while we don't expect such a pathetic performance by the Bear defense this week at home, we also expect more from their offense, especially the heralded new QB Jay Cutler from Denver, in his first home game as a Bear.
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Our only concern with the Over here is that the NY Giants have not exactly been a pre-season offensive juggernaut on the road, going just 1-3 to the under in their four true road games L3Y, averaging just 32 total ppg in those four, with annual game vs Jets at Giants and Jets home field (Meadowlands) not counting as a true road game. And that's what limits this pick to 3 units, but it is no doubt one of the main reasons for this low totals line of 35.
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However, this pick is primarily about Bears' strong pre-season Over tendencies, especially at home. So make it 3 units on the OVER at 35.5<, and limit it to two units if line rises to 36.
Freddy Wills
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
Tonight Duke who has a 3.31 ERA goes against one of the more weaker line ups specifically against LHP. The Reds are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. LH starters and are only hitting .236 and scoring 3.50 runs per 9 innings on the road vs. LHP this year. It gets worse over their last 10 games vs. LHP they are hitting .160 and scoring 2.43/9 in their last 10 games. Last night I mentioned how the Reds have just been losing on the road they are now 5-20 in their last 25 road games and with umpire Paul Schrieber behind the plate they are 3-13 in his last 16 games. Reds are throwing journey man Justin Lehr out there. He has looked good in his starts but this is only his second start on the road and i think the Pirates will get enough runs to win this. one!
LT Profits
Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics
We cashed a nice Under ticket between the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics here last night, and we are coming right back with the same play between the same two teams.
Armando Galarraga has been a disappointment for the Tigers after his breakthrough year of last season, but he has been pitching a lot better lately. Galarraga has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last two starts and in five of his last eight outings, and like most pitchers, he likes pitching here in spacious McAfee Coliseum. Even in his off year for him, he tossed a gem here back on June 30, allowing only one run and two hits in 6.1 innings.
Similarly, Trevor Cahill is also improving for Oakland, as comes in off of back-to-back Quality Starts. Yes, he was lit up by the Tigers in Detroit, but this is a more hitter friendly park and Cahill has the good fortune of catching a slumping Detroit offense that is batting only .226 as a team over the last 10 games while averaging just 3.80 runs.
The Athletics are only averaging 3.70 runs over this same span, and both bullpens for these teams remain hot. It sounds like all the ingredients are in place for a second straight Under n this series.
Pick: Tigers/Athletics Under 8.5
Yankee Capper
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Pittsburgh Pirates -140
Atlanta Braves -165
Milwaukee Brewers +120
Detroit/Oakland Over 8.5
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Detroit Lions +3.5
San Diego Chargers +2.5