SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) at Detroit (1-1, 0-2 ATS)
Peyton Manning and the Colts hit the road for the first time this preseason when they travel to Ford Field to take on the Lions in Week 3, traditionally the week that starters see their most playing time before the regular season begins.
Indianapolis dropped Philadelphia 23-15 on Aug. 20 as a 3½-point home underdog, with Manning throwing a pair of first-quarter TDs – including a 76-yarder to Reggie Wayne – and finishing 10 of 14 for 167 yards on three possessions. First-year coach Jim Caldwell said Manning and the starters will definitely go the entire first half today and perhaps into the third quarter. Jim Sorgi (hamstring) likely will have to sit out again, meaning Curtis Painter will relieve Manning and finish out the second half.
Detroit lost to Cleveland 27-10 last Saturday as a 3½-point road pup, falling behind 20-0 in the first quarter. No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford, making his first start, went 5 of 13 for just 34 yards and threw an INT on his first pass. Rookie coach Jim Schwartz will send veteran Daunte Culpepper (10 of 16, 86 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs last week) out first this week, and though Stafford won’t enter until the second quarter, Schwartz said both QBs will see time with the first-string offense, including their top wideout targets.
Despite the upset win over Philadelphia, Indianapolis is still just 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS in preseason play since 2005, going 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road during this stretch. It also has failed to cash in seven of its last 11 as a preseason pup. On a positive note, the Colts cruised to Week 3 dress-rehearsal victories over the Saints (27-14) and Lions (37-10) in 2006 and 2007, but last year they got smacked 20-7 by the Bills as a 5½-point home chalk.
The Lions cashed in all four preseason games last year, but if you take that away, they’re just 4-14 ATS in exhibition play since 2003. Last year, Detroit pummeled Cleveland 26-6 as a 2½-point home favorite in Week 3 of the preseason, ending a four-year SU and ATS losing skid in Week 3 action.
Indianapolis saw a four-game preseason “under” streak end last week, but the under is still 6-1 in its last seven August road outings. The under is also 5-2 in Detroit’s last seven preseason contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans (2-0 SU and ATS) at Oakland (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
The Saints look to remain perfect in the preseason when they travel to the Oakland Coliseum to face the Raiders in a non-conference contest.
New Orleans drubbed Houston 38-14 last Saturday as a three-point road ‘dog, with QB Drew Brees leading two TD drives before exiting, and running back Mike Bell racked up 100 yards and a TD on just 10 carries. Brees and the starters should be around much longer today, playing at least the first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Backup QB Mark Brunell likely will follow Brees this week, with Joey Harrington (concussion) finishing up if he’s well enough to play.
Oakland gave up 18 fourth-quarter points in losing to San Francisco 21-20 last Saturday as a three-point road pup. JaMarcus Russell (7 of 11, 76 yards, 1 TD) played four possessions in the contest. Coach Tom Cable said Russell and the starters will play the first half and possibly into the third quarter. Jeff Garcia, who went just one possession last week, will spell Russell and play most of the second half, with Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski possibly seeing mop-up time.
New Orleans has now won and covered five straight preseason road games, but it is just 3-9 ATS as a preseason chalk since 2002. However, New Orleans has been impressive in Week 3 the last two years, going 2-0 SU and ATS on the road while outscoring opponents 43-7.
Oakland crushed the Cowboys 31-10 in its preseason home opener two weeks ago, improving to 6-1 SU and ATS in summer home games since 2006. But the Raiders are just 2-4 ATS in their last six when catching points in August, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS in dress-rehearsal battles the last six years, including a 24-0 home loss to the Cardinals last year as a three-point Week 3 home favorite.
Oakland has topped the total in each of its first two preseason contests after seeing the under go 13-4 the previous four years in summer action. The under is also 9-4 in New Orleans’ last 13 preseason affairs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
Tennessee (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) at Cleveland (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Browns aim to take steps to settle their quarterback controversy when they play host to the Titans, who are already in their fourth exhibition contest, having opened play in the Hall of Fame Game.
Cleveland coasted past Detroit 27-10 last Saturday laying 3½ points at home, putting up 20 first-quarter points, including a Josh Cribbs 84-yard punt return for a TD. QB Derek Anderson (8 of 13, 130 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) started and played the first quarter, leading three scoring drives before giving way to Brady Quinn (3 of 5, 29 yards).
If new coach Eric Mangini continues his preseason trend, Quinn will get the nod tonight, but Mangini said both QBs will see significant time with the rest of the first-team offense, which will play into the second half. Brett Ratliff and/or Richard Bartel will finish out the game at QB.
The Titans got drilled at Dallas 30-10 as a 3½-point underdog on Aug. 21, failing to score in the second half and giving up 16 fourth-quarter points. QB Kerry Collins (8 of 11, 55 yards, 1 TD) played the entire first half, and coach Jeff Fisher said he expects his starters to play “a little bit more than last week.” Vince Young should follow Collins, with Patrick Ramsey finishing it out.
The Browns snapped an 0-5 SU and ATS preseason losing skid (0-3 SU and ATS at home) with the rout of Detroit. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) over the past five summers in Week 3.
The Titans have failed to cover in three straight preseason road games, and although they’re 8-3 SU in their last 11 exhibition games overall, they’re only 5-5-1 ATS. Also, Tennessee has lost four of its last five Week 3 contests (2-3 SU).
The over is on an 8-2 tear for Tennessee in preseason play (3-0 this year), but the Browns have stayed low in four consecutive August games, and the under is 8-3 in their last 11.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (1-2, 1-1-1 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-1 SU and ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Steelers get their franchise quarterback back for their dress-rehearsal contest at Heinz Field, where they will face the Bills.
Minus QB Ben Roethlisberger (foot injury), Pittsburgh lost at Washington 17-13 last Saturday getting 3½ points. However, Roethlisberger will start tonight, and coach Mike Tomlin said the two-time Super Bowl winner won’t be limited in any way. Tomlin said his starters will go the entire first half, and he’ll evaluate at halftime to determine whether the first-teamers play in the third quarter. Charlie Batch will replace Roethlisberger, followed by rookie Mike Reilly. QB Dennis Dixon (shoulder) will not play.
Buffalo fell to Green Bay 31-21 last Saturday as a three-point road pup, getting shut out 24-0 in the first half. QB Trent Edwards (7 of 11, 45 yards, 1 INT) went into the second quarter and is expected to go the entire first half, if not more, tonight. He has yet to lead a TD drive in three preseason contests, as the Bills opened the summer playing in the Hall of Fame Game. Edwards should be followed by Ryan Fitzpatrick, with Gibran Hamdan in a mop-up role.
Pittsburgh is 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) in Week 3 over the past four years, and it lost to Buffalo 24-21 as a one-point chalk in Week 2 last August in Toronto. However, the Steelers have won their last four home preseason affairs (3-1 ATS).
Buffalo snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide in Week 3 action last summer, hammering the Colts 20-7 as a 5½-point road underdog. The Bills are on a 6-1 ATS roll (4-3 SU) in true exhibition road games, and they are on a 10-2-2 preseason ATS tear from the underdog role.
The under is 13-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 preseason games (2-0 this year), but the over has hit in all three of Buffalo’s games this August, after a 6-2 “under” run the past two preseasons.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Baltimore (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS)
A pair of playoff teams from last year tune up for the regular season when the Ravens head to Bank of America Stadium to meet the Panthers.
Baltimore held off the Jets 24-23 Monday night but failed to cash as a three-point home favorite, letting first-half leads of 14-0 and 21-7 slip away in getting outscored 16-3 in the second half. Second-year QB Joe Flacco (8 of 18, 120 yards) and the rest of the starters could go all the way through the third quarter tonight, coach John Harbaugh said, with Troy Smith relieving Flacco. John Beck and/or Cleo Lemon might get some fourth-quarter snaps.
Carolina, on the road the first two weeks this month, lost at Miami 27-17 as a 2½-point ‘dog last Saturday, leading 14-10 at the half before getting outscored 17-3 in the second half. QB Jake Delhomme (5 of 7, 47 yards) was in for just three first-quarter possessions, but coach John Fox said the plan this week is for Delhomme and the starters to play into the third quarter. Josh McCown should spell Delhomme, with Matt Moore and Hunter Cantwell possibly getting a little action.
Not including a 2007 home game versus Washington that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning, the Ravens have lost consecutive Week 3 preseason games both SU and ATS, and both were on the road. Baltimore has been a mediocre preseason unit dating to 2004, going 11-10 SU and 10-11 ATS, including 4-5 SU and ATS on the road, with this being its first road game of 2009.
Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 4-2 SU and ATS roll in Week 3, including last year’s 47-3 destruction of Washington as a three-point home favorite. The Panthers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 home exhibitions, but like Baltimore, they have been a middling unit at the betting window, going 10-12 ATS in August since 2004, including 5-5 ATS at home.
The under is 12-5 in Baltimore’s last 17 preseason contests (4-2 “under” since Harbaugh took over last season). On the flip side, the total has gone high in both of Carolina’s exhibitions this year and is on a 5-1 streak dating to the 2008 preseason opener, following a 6-2 “under” run in 2006 and 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
N.Y. Jets (0-2, 1-1 ATS) vs. N.Y. Giants (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Jets shoot for their third consecutive preseason win over their rivals when they clash with the Giants in their annual Week 3 meeting in the Meadowlands.
Despite throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown in Monday’s 24-23 loss at Baltimore as a three-point underdog, Mark Sanchez was named as the Jets’ starting quarterback this week. Sanchez is slated to play the first half tonight with the rest of the starters. New coach Rex Ryan said he’s promised Harvard rookie QB Chris Pizzotti the first series of the second half. Pizzotti figures to be followed by backup Kellen Clemens, with rookie Erik Ainge possibly seeing late fourth-quarter action.
The Giants offense managed just 170 yards in last week’s 17-3 loss in Chicago as a three-point road underdog. Coach Tom Coughlin said he expects his starters, including QB Eli Manning, to play into the third quarter, but added that it depends on how many snaps they get in the first half. David Carr and possibly Andre Woodson will follow Manning under center.
The Jets and Giants meet in Week 3 of the exhibition season every year. The Jets have won the last two battles, including a 10-7 victory as a three-point favorite in 2008. The last six preseason clashes have been decided by a total of 22 points, with all six by eight points or fewer, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five August meetings.
With Monday’s last-minute backdoor cover at Baltimore, the Jets improved to 6-3-1 ATS since the start of the 2007 preseason, including 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Meanwhile, although the Giants are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven as a preseason chalk, they’ve covered in three straight exhibition games when laying more than three points.
The under is 9-5 in the Giants’ last 14 summer affairs (1-1 this year), and the last eight Jets-Giants preseason battles have stayed below the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Seattle (2-0 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Seahawks look to maintain their preseason dominance when they visit the Chiefs, whose preseason struggles have continued under new coach Todd Haley.
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck tossed a pair of first-half scoring TD passes in last week’s 27-13 rout of Denver as a 3½-point home favorite, giving the Seahawks’ their eighth straight preseason spread-cover (7-1 SU). Hasselbeck will be under center to begin this game against the Chiefs and likely play into the third quarter, though new coach Jim Mora didn’t specify his playing-time plays. Behind Hasselbeck are veteran backup Seneca Wallace, third-year pro Jeff Rowe and rookie Mike Teel, all of whom threw passes against Denver.
Kansas City blew a second-half lead in Minnesota last Friday, falling 17-13 as a three-point underdog. Haley said QB Matt Cassell, who is completing 58 percent of his passes for 114 yards and one TD through two games, will play through at least the first series of the third quarter along with the rest of the first-string units. Haley didn’t reveal his quarterback rotation after Cassel departs, but Tyler Thigpen and Matt Gutierrez took snaps with the first team on Thursday, meaning Brodie Croyle will probably be the odd man out tonight.
The Chiefs have lost 13 of their last 14 games, including six in a row (regular and postseason), and they continue to be a disaster in exhibition play, going 5-17 SU and 4-18 ATS since 2004. In addition, Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight preseason home games (1-4 SU), all as a favorite. Finally, K.C. is in a 1-5 SU and ATS slump in Week 3 of the preseason, getting outscored the last two years by a combined 54-7 in losing to the Saints (home) and Dolphins (road).
In addition to its 8-0 ATS run overall in August, the Seahawks are on an 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS roll on the road, and they’ve cashed in eight of their last 10 as a preseason pup. Also, Seattle is 5-1 SU and ATS the last six years in Week 3 action, including a pair of wins over the Chiefs (42-31 at home in 2003, 23-17 on the road in 2005).
The “over” is 14-6 in Seattle’s last 20 exhibition outings (10-3 last 13), including 6-2 in the last eight on the road. However, the Chiefs have stayed low the last two weeks after going 3-1 “over” last summer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
San Francisco (2-0, 0-2 ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Cowboys try to build off last week’s impressive showing against the Titans when they entertain the 49ers in the second game at the brand-new Cowboys Stadium.
Dallas piled up 466 total yards, including 355 through the air, in last Friday’s 30-10 rout of Tennessee as a 3 ½-point home favorite. QB Tony Romo, who was efficient against the Titans (18-for-24, 192 yards), will play into the second half in this contest, followed by veteran Jon Kitna. Either Stephen McGee or Rudy Carpenter – both rookies – will finish up.
San Francisco has stopped a last-second two-point conversion try each of the last two weeks to preserve one-point home wins, beating the Broncos 17-16 in Week 1 and the Raiders 21-20 last Saturday, but the Niners failed to cover the spread in both games.
Earlier this week, new 49ers coach Mike Singletary announced that Shaun Hill beat out former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith for the starting quarterback job. Hill is expected to start tonight despite injuring his back this week, while Smith has been ruled out with an injury. Hill and the starters are expected to be on the field for at least the first quarter but probably not the entire first half. Once Hill departs, veteran Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis with split the QB chores the rest of the way.
The 49ers have failed to cover in three straight August contests, and they’re 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 preseason roadies. San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last six years (3-3 SU).
The Cowboys have won all five preseason home games under coach Wade Phillips (4-1 ATS), and since 2003, they’re 11-0-1 SU and 9-3 ATS at home in summer affairs. However, Dallas has failed to cash in consecutive Week 3 games, with its last dress-rehearsal win being a 17-7 home victory over the 49ers as a seven-point favorite in 2006.
The over has hit in seven of Dallas’ last nine preseason starts (2-0 this year), and the over is 6-3 in San Francisco’s last nine exhibition tilts (3-1 on the road).
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
San Diego (1-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-1, 2-0 ATS)
After starting the preseason with consecutive road games, the Falcons make their 2009 debut at the Georgia Dome when they host the Chargers, who hit the highway for the second straight week.
San Diego coach Norv Turner, whose starters played most of the first half in last week’s 17-6 upset win in Arizona as a three-point underdog, told his top units earlier this week to be prepared to play three quarters tonight. That includes QB Philip Rivers, though it’s unlikely that RB LaDainian Tomlinson – who is seeing his first preseason action since 2005 – will be on the field that long. Once Rivers departs, veteran backup Billy Volek will take over, with Charlie Whitehurst possibly seeing mop-up duty.
Atlanta bounced back from a last-second 27-26 loss at Detroit with a 20-13 win at St. Louis as a 2 ½-point road chalk, with QB Matt Ryan (7-for-8, 81 yards, 1 TD) having another fine outing. Ryan and the rest of the Falcons’ starters will play through at least the first series of the third quarter. Coach Mike Smith refused to reveal his QB rotation after Ryan departs, but expect D.J. Shockley and Chris Redman to get some action in the second half.
San Diego is now 4-1 SU and ATS as an August visitor since 2007, including cashing in three straight as a road underdog. The Chargers are 2-0 SU in Week 3 under Turner, but they failed to cover in both games (which were decided by a combined three points). Turner also went 0-2 ATS in Week 3 during his previous coaching stint with the Raiders, making his teams 0-4 ATS in his last four dress-rehearsal battles.
The Falcons, who covered as a three-point underdog in the one-point loss at Detroit in Week 1, are on an 8-2 ATS spree in August, going 3-1 SU and ATS at home during this stretch. Atlanta is also 5-0 SU and ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last five years, outscoring the opposition 121-45.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (67-61) at Philadelphia (74-52)
The Phillies trot out nearly untouchable left-hander Cliff Lee (5-0, 0.68 ERA in N.L.; 12-9, 2.63 ERA overall) for the second game of a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the division rival Braves, who will counter with right-hander Derek Lowe (12-8, 4.48).
Philadelphia pulled out a rain-delayed 4-2 victory in Friday’s series opener. The Phillies remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 13 of their last 17, and they are on further streaks of 37-18 overall, 6-1 against winning teams and 20-7 at home.
The Braves are still on upticks of 5-2 on the highway and 4-2 in division play, and in this rivalry, Atlanta is on rolls of 6-3 overall and 6-3 in Philly. Additionally, the Braves are 8-5 in 13 clashes this season with the Phils.
Lee has been stellar since coming over from Cleveland before the trade deadline, winning all five starts with a suffocating ERA of 0.68, allowing no earned runs over 16 innings in his last two starts. On Monday, he went eight innings against the Mets, allowing two unearned runs on six hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 6-2 road win.
Lee is 5-6 with a 2.57 ERA in 13 total home starts this year, but in his two outings at Citizens Bank, he’s 2-0 with a stifling 0.56 ERA. Lee, who turns 31 tomorrow, won his lone career start against Atlanta five years ago, a 4-2 victory with Cleveland.
The Braves have alternated wins and losses in Lowe’s last five starts. On Sunday, he allowed five runs (three earned) on nine hits and a walk in five innings of a 7-5 home win over Florida, and that followed a 9-4 road loss to the Mets in which he gave up eight runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. Lowe is 6-6 with a 5.11 ERA in 13 road outings this season, but he’s 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in 13 career appearances (nine starts) against Philadelphia.
Atlanta has won both Lowe’s starts against the Phils this season, including a 4-1 road win on Opening Night in which the 36-year-old threw eight shutout innings. The Braves are on runs of 7-2 in Lowe’s last nine starts overall and 6-1 with Lowe facing winning teams, but they are just 2-6 in his last eight outings on the highway.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 11-4 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-1 in N.L. East action, 18-5 against righty starters and 4-1 behind Lee, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five straight games. However, the over for the Braves is on road rolls of 7-3 overall and 5-2 against winning teams, and with Lowe hurling, the over is on upticks of 5-2 overall and 5-2 on the road against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Carlo Campanella
Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions
Play: Indianapolis Colts -3
The Colts lost their Preseason opener at home, 3-13, against Minnesota as starting QB Manning didn't see much playing time and back-up QB Sorgi was injured a few days before the game. Last week, Indianapolis rebounded with a solid 23-15 victory against a tough Eagles squad as QB Manning completed 10 of 14 passes for 2 Touchdowns and new back-up QB Curtis Painter looked much more comfortable while going 11 of 19 for a 116 yards. With only 4 games on the exhibition schedule, week # 3 will be the most action that QB Manning will see and he should shred the Detroit Lions defense, which allowed a Cleveland Browns squad that hadn't scored a TD in their previous games to put up 27 points on the scoreboard last Saturday! In fact, the Lions went 0-16 last season and their defense hasn't improved much as Atlanta scored 26 points during the first week of Preseason. Lay the points with the road Favored Colts as we find them at 6-1 ATS when playing their 3rd game of Preseason.
7* Play On Indianapolis
Vernon Croy
New Orleans Saints vs. Oakland Raiders
Pick: Oakland Raiders +2.5
Oakland is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play and even though this is just a preseason game you better believe the Raiders want to get the win more than the Saints at home Saturday. Javon Walker is expected to play against the Saints and his knee is 100% after having off-season knee surgery in a foreign country. The Raiders have looked good this preseason although these games are meaningless their defense has played solid. I look for the Raiders offense to have a big game at home against the Saints defense that was ranked 23rd in the league last season. This will not be a walk in the park for the Saints offense against a Raiders defense that was ranked 10th in the league last season against the pass especially when playing in a hostile enviroment. The Raiders defense allowed just 10 points at home against the Cowboys and they also held the 49ers to just 3 points on the road until the 4th quarter this preseason. Grab the points with the Oakland Raiders Saturday.
Jeff Benton
San Francisco at DALLAS -7
I came up short on the Pirates with Friday’s baseball freebie. For Saturday, it’s back to the NFL as I’ll lay the big points with the Cowboys at home against the 49ers.
Dallas’ first-string offense has looked very, very good through the first two preseason games, and that includes the 31-10 Week 1 loss at Oakland (Tony Romo and Co. played just two series in that one, but scored the team’s only TD). Then last week, Romo went 18-for-24 for 192 of his team’s 355 passing yards in a 30-10 rout of Tennessee.
That victory over the Titans in their brand new stadium continued an incredible preseason trend for the Cowboys. Not only have they won all five preseason home games since coach Wade Phillips took over (covering in four of those games), but you have to go back to 2002 for the last time Dallas lost an exhibition game in Big D. Since 2003, the Pokes are 11-0-1 as a host in August, going an impressive 9-3 ATS.
Conversely, the 49ers have been a big-time go-against team on the road in preseason play, losing 10 of their last 11 on the highway in August (4-7 ATS). And while San Francisco has won its first two games this summer – both at home over Denver and Oakland – it did so only by stopping two two-point conversion attempts (the Broncos and Raiders both scored late in the fourth quarter and could’ve kicked tying extra-points but didn’t want to play overtime).
Finally, San Francisco is down a quarterback in this game. Alex Smith, who this week lost the competition with Shaun Hill for the starting job, is out with an injury. And Hill himself wrenched his back this week, and while he is slated to start, he’s probably not going to play as long as most starters do in Week 3. That leaves the Niners with journeyman Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis under center for possibly three full quarters! Now you know why Dallas, which will play its starters into the third quarter, is such a hefty chalk. Lay the wood and look for the Cowboys to continue their preseason dominance at home with a double-digit win.
5♦ DALLAS
Marc Lawrence
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Texas Rangers
The Rangers meet the Twins in Game Two of this critical three-game series at the Metrodome this evening when Scott Feldman matches serves with Carl Pavano. Feldman enters the game as the best kept secret in the bigs as he's cashed in 16 of his last 20 road starts, including each of his last 6 in a row. He's also won 4 of his 5 team starts this month. With Pavano just 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA in his last six home team starts, look for the Twins to lose for the 4th straight time at home on Saturdays here this evening.
Cajun Sports
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: San Francisco 49ers +7
Tonight’s matchup in Dallas should take you down memory lane to some epic battles between these two clubs. San Francisco holds a slight edge in the series with a 16-15-1 overall record. These two have met in the playoffs seven times with Dallas holding a 5-2 record in the postseason which includes four meetings in the NFC Championship Game. It’s doubtful this game will be anything like those great games of the past but it still takes you back. In tonight’s contest the 49ers defense should get a shot in the arm with the return of their leading tackler LB Patrick Willis who suffered an ankle sprain on the opening day of training camp and has been sidelined for most of camp. The Cowboys are coming off a big win over the Titans in their first home game in their new stadium but that win came after losing to Oakland by a score of 31 to 10 on the road. The 49ers are coming in off two home wins and we know these road teams are a solid 35-21-1 ATS when they hit the road for the first time during the preseason. San Fran is also active in two more systems that tell us to Play On any road team off 2 home SU wins in their last 2 games, 24-11 ATS. Play On any road team with 2 or more SU wins versus an opponent with exactly 1 SU win, 42-17 ATS. Dallas on the other hand is in a negative situation that tells us to Play Against favorites who are coming in off a SU win of 20 or more points, 62-30 ATS since 2007. If our Play Against Favorite is favored by 2 or more points the record improves to 43-14 ATS since 2007. The current line is Dallas -7 and if that holds we know to Play Against home favorites of 7 or more points off a SU/ATS win now facing a non-winless team after scoring 17 or more points in their last game because playing against these favorites has produced a record of 14-0 ATS since 2007.
With significant technical support for the visitor we will back the 49ers here as they keep this one close and take the Cowboys right down to the wire.
GAME FORECAST: 2* San Francisco 49ers 17 Dallas Cowboys 20
Rob Vinciletti
New Orleans Saints vs. Oakland Raiders
Play: Oakland Raiders +3
Oakland fits a nice preseason system here that plays on certain dogs in Game three off a loss vs an opponent off a win of 20 or more points.This system has cashed 15 of the last 18 times going back through the years.Oakland hasnt played that badly in the preseason as they are averaging 350 yards while allowing 331.The Saints have similar numbers with 368 yards for and 352 against.The Line may be an over reaction to the Saints easy 38-14 win last week.The Raiders have played well at home going 4-1 the last 3 years.Ill take the points with the Raiders here today.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: Colorado over San Francisco
Although both Barry Zito (SF) and Jason Marquis (Colorado) are pitching well over their last three starts, the Rockies defeated the Giants in their last start 6-4. Zito did not give up an earned run as the Giants pen failed miserably up in Mile High. Still, I will go right back to Colorado Saturday knowing the visitor is a super 52-26 over the last two months plus. Further, the Rockies currently are 4-1 on the road and 8-2 with Marquis versus a winning baseball team. The upstart Giants are gunning for a wild card berth, but are 2-5 in their last seven versus Colorado.
Frank Jordan
San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7
San Francisco and Dallas once was a great rivalry that would meet up in the playoffs and sometimes the NFC championship game especially in the 80's-90's, but they each team went through a rebuilding stage Dallas is built San Fran on its way back. San Francisco is 2-0 but didn't quite strike gold as they are a pair of one point wins. Dallas is 1-1 and that win was convincingly at home in their new palace. Look for Dallas to lay a good old fashion whoopen on the 9ers. Play Dallas
MATT FARGO
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Seattle has pulled out two wins to open the preseason under new head coach Jim Mora despite getting outgained in both of those victories. Basic logic might tell us that teams that have won their first two games are a play against in their next game but it is exactly the opposite as explained later. The Seahawks are taking this pretty big as last year was a major disappointment as injuries and overall poor play resulted in a 4-12 season. With this being Game Three, it means the starters are going to be seeing more playing time and this is the final big dress rehearsal before the regular season begins and winning this game is of ultimate importance. Kansas City is 0-2 and it no doubt wants to get a win as well but last week showed that it is going to be a long season for the Chiefs. They had first and goal from the one-yard line with a minute remaining last week against the Vikings. Four chances to punch it in resulted in four no gains and a loss. I was on the Chiefs in that game and that was evidence enough, no matter if it was the starters or the fourth string that this is a team we want to avoid until it can prove that it can handle those situations. It is becoming more evident that the Chiefs are having some serious offensive line problems and we will see this against the Seahawks. Against the Vikings, quarterback Matt Cassell dropped back to throw 19 times and was sacked the three times while also running the ball twice because of pressure. His longest completion went for only 20 yards, and he played only the first half when the Vikings didn’t use two of their better defensive linemen, Pat Williams and Jared Allen. The running game has been affected as well. Larry Johnson had an 18-yard run against Minnesota but otherwise carried seven times for 3 yards. Despite that big run, he is averaging only 2.8 yards per carry in the two preseason games. The situation that Seattle falls into is solid. Play on road underdogs or pickem teams after two or more consecutive straight up wins, in the last two weeks of the preseason. This situation is 58-28 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1993. 3* Seattle Seahawks
LARRY NESS
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +7.5
Dallas is 0-5 SU and ATS on the road under Wade Phillips in preseason games with the defense allowing 27.2 PPG (allowed 456 yards at the Raiders in Week 1!). However, after last week's 30-10 rout of the Titans as the Cowboys christened their new stadium, Wade is 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in home preseason games. That continues a recent run for the Cowboys, which has seen them go 10-0-1 ATS (8-3 ATS) the last five-plus preseasons here in Dallas. That being said, don't look for the Cowboys to play with the same intensity this week. Romo started things off by completing 18-of-24 passes for 192 yards, then backups Kitna and McGee kept up the aerial assault, as Dallas QBs finished 32-of-42 for 355 passing yards (two TDs and zero INTs). The 49ers are 2-0 SU to open the 2009 preseason but both wins have come by one point and both were ATS losses. However, the 49ers getting a TD in this game and one has to take note of the team's rushing stats last week which were awfully impressive, even if they came against the Raiders. San Francisco ran 59 times for 257 yards (5.9 YPG) last Saturday night and I'm taking the points this Saturday with the 49ers vs the Cowboys.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -168
Bottom Line: Romero is struggling (5.74 ERA, 1.787 WHIP L3 starts) and he is 0-3 against the money line lifetime when starting against Boston with an ERA of 10.50 and a WHIP of 2.667. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Boston and 0-5 in Romero's last 5 starts vs. the American League East. I'll back the Red Sox at home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Braves/Phillies UNDER 8
I expect a duel from Lowe and Lee to keep this one under. Lee has a ridiculous 0.37 ERA over his last 3 starts and Lowe is 5-2 lifetime against the Phillies with an ERA of 2.62. Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER when playing on Saturday this season and 25-9 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings. Bet the Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona D-backs -130
Arizona crushed Houston 14-7 Friday and I look for the D-backs to prevail again Saturday. The D-backs will be very confident against Norris, who gave up 6 earned in 1 inning against them just 6 days ago. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Garland has been up and down this season but he's capable of pitching very well. He actually opposed Norris in a Houston last week. The Astros are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-7 in their last 8 Saturday games. I'll take the Snakes at home at a pretty good price.