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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday August 29,2009

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Bobby Maxwell

Tennessee +2 at CLEVELAND

Handed you a FREE winner on Friday night with the Phillies over the Braves, but I turn my attention to the gridiron today where I've got another comp winner for you as I play the Titans in Cleveland against the Browns.

Titans' QB Kerry Collins has been disappointed with how the offense has played so far in the preseason. He wants to rectify that starting tonight and I think the Cleveland defense is just what the doctor ordered for him. I love Tennessee in this one to put up some big points in the first half and cruise in for the easy win and cover.

We know this team can run the ball with LenDale White and Chris Johnson, but rookie Javon Ringer has been turning heads in camp and so far is averaging 6.1 yards per carry in three preseason games. He also had a 51-yard kickoff return against the Cowboys last week.

At QB, Collins is going to play at least the first half and we'll likely see him play the first series of the third quarter. Then it's Vince Young for the rest of the third quarter and into the fourth before possibly seeing third-stringer Patrick Ramsey. All three have starter's experience and I feel good about that rotation against a suspect Cleveland defense.

The Browns are still not settled on a starting QB - Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are battling for the nod, but neither has done anything this preseason. Cleveland is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six preseason games, including 1-3 SU and ATS at home.

Tennessee is 8-3 SU in their last 11 exhibition games and with an offense looking to make a statement tonight, look for this one to be a rout early. Play the Titans.

3♦ TENNESSEE

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:16 am
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Karl Garrett

San Diego at ATLANTA -2'

G-Man scored with the Giants last night as my comp play selection.

Tonight I am all about the pigskin, as I like the Falcons to take care of business at home against the Chargers.

San Diego is making a strange trip to the southeast this evening after playing a home game, and playing a close roadie at Arizona last week. The Bolts will close the preseason with a home game next Friday night against San Francisco.

I just don't see them being too interested in playing this game tonight at the Georgia Dome.

As for the Falcons, this is their preseason lid-lifter after having played at Detroit, and St. Louis, so expect a little added effort for the home folks who are pretty excited about the upward direction the Falcons are on under Coach Smith.

Atlanta has covered in 3 of their last 4 home games, and I expect them to get the cover in this home opener as well.

G-Man laying the small home wood with the Falcons.

4♦ ATLANTA

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:16 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline

Colorado at SAN FRANCISCO +115

Our comp play run is at 26-11-1 as we head into action this Saturday.

In last week's series between the Rockies and the Giants, the teams went 2-1-1 OVER the total in the 4 game set.

Last night, Colorado's recent UNDER trend continued as the Rockies and Giants held UNDER the posted the total.

Colorado has now played UNDER in their last 4 games, and 8 of their last 11 overall with a push in the mix.

San Francisco has been playing them LOW when southpaw Barry Zito is on the bump, as 10 of Zito's last 12 Saturday starts have landed UNDER the total, as have 6 of Zito's last 8 starts overall.

The Rockies will send Jason Marquis to the mound and the righty has made 25 starts this season with 13 of the 25 staying LOW.

Runs continue to be at a premium in this weekend set at AT&T Park.

Play on the UNDER.

2♦ UNDER

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:17 am
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Dominic Fazzini

Oakland at L.A. ANGELS

I picked a real stinker Friday night with the Indians, but I'm primed for a big rebound today!

The Angels' starting pitching has been the team's weak point in an otherwise strong season, but Jered Weaver (13-5, 4.03 ERA) has been the one constant in the rotation.

The right-hander followed his seven-hit shutout of the Indians on Aug. 19 with a weak effort Monday vs. the Tigers, giving up five runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 innings. He has lost two of his last three starts after losing just once in his previous 15 outings.

I fully expect Weaver to bounce back tonight against the A's, however. He is 2-2 with a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against the AL West rivals.

Oakland starter Vin Mazzaro (4-9, 5.32) has had a rocky rookie season. The right-hander allowed three runs on five hits and four walks in five innings Monday in a 3-1 loss to Seattle.

Mazzaro had his worst outing of the season against Los Angeles on July 18, giving up eight runs (four earned) and 10 hits in three innings.

With the Angels coming off a come-from-behind 11-7 victory over the A's on Friday night, and the team energized by the acquistion of left-hander Scott Kazmir from Tampa Bay, I expect Los Angeles to have a big night behind Weaver. Take the Angels on the run line in this one.

4♦ L.A. ANGELS -1.5

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:17 am
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Tony Weston

I got back on the winning track yesterday as the Phillies come through and take care of business.

I’m making it two in a row today as I’m delivering with some NFL action as I’m taking the Indianapolis Colts on the road at the Detroit Lions.

Indy hits the road for the first time this preseason and gets to battle a Lions team that got manhandled last week at the hands of the Cleveland Browns, losing 27-10 as a 3 1/2 point underdog.

The Colts looked impressive in beating the Eagles outright 23-15 as a 3 1/2 point underdog and will bring that momentum into Motown.

The Lions enter this game just 8-14 ATS their last 22 preseason games. That number is skewed somewhat thanks in part to Detroit’s perfect 4-0 ATS run last August.

Consider, too, that Indy has cashed in and won SU two of its last three preseason Week 3 games, and has outscored its opponents in that stretch, on average, 23.6-14.6.

The Colts are laying about 3 points in this one and will cruise to another victory. Take Indy on the road in this one.

3♦ COLTS

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:19 am
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DUNKEL

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
The Dodgers look to bounce back from yesterday's 4-2 loss and take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is just 3-8 in its last 11 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game.LA is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1/2 a run.Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150)

Game 901-902: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 15.592; Arizona (Garland) 14.627
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over

Game 903-904: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Parnell) 14.815; Cubs (Dempster) 15.840
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-240); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-240); N/A

Game 905-906: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 13.920; Florida (Nolasco) 14.618
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-210); Over

Game 907-908: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.817; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.525
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-230); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-230); Under

Game 909-910: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.003; Philadelphia (Lee) 16.035
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-190); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-190); Over

Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haeger) 15.979; Cincinnati (Maloney) 15.550
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Over

Game 913-914: Washington at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Stammen) 14.506; St. Louis (Boggs) 15.468
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Under

Game 915-916: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Marquis) 13.967; San Francisco (Zito) 15.870
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+115); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Contreras) 16.415; NY Yankees (Mitre) 15.238
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.852; Detroit (Robertson) 15.426
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+135); Under

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Sowers) 16.307; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.339
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Over

Game 923-924: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 14.184; Boston (Buchholz) 15.258
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.426; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.314
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

Game 927-928: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.550; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.035
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-250); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-250); Under

Game 929-930: Kansas City at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Meche) 15.011; Seattle (Snell) 15.396
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Over

WNBA

Atlanta at Seattle
The Dream look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has Seattle favored by 3 1/2.Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5)

Game 601-602: Detroit at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 107.119; San Antonio 112.899
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 149 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 154
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under

Game 603-604: Sacramento at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 106.851; Indiana 119.454
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 148 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 147
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8); Over

Game 605-606: Connecticut at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 112.855; Phoenix 113.363
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 180
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+4 1/2); Over

Game 607-608: Atlanta at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.980; Seattle 116.596
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 3 1/2; 153
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 5; 160
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+5); Under

CFL

Hamilton at Edmonton
The Tiger-Cats look to bounce back from their loss to Saskatchewan and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games following an ATS defeat.Hamilton is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 5 1/2.Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+7)

Game 443-444: Hamilton at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 108.289; Edmonton 113.722
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 7; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+7); Under

NFL

Game 261-262: Indianapolis at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 122.994; Detroit 117.984
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3); Over

Game 263-264: New Orleans at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 126.474; Oakland 122.037
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-1 1/2); Under

Game 265-266: Tennessee at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 119.141; Cleveland 121.381
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Pick; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland; Over

Game 267-268: Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 119.360; Pittsburgh 126.251
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 30
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2); Under

Game 269-270: Baltimore at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 117.003; Carolina 123.106
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 34
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over

Game 271-272: NY Jets at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 120.141; NY Giants 124.337
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 4; 30 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3 1/2); Under

Game 273-274: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 122.677; Kansas City 119.745
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Under

Game 275-276: San Francisco at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 114.533; Dallas 124.867
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 40 1/2
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 40
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Over

Game 277-278: San Diego at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 122.668; Atlanta 122.587
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:31 am
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Rocketman

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: San Francisco 49ers +7

San Francisco comes into this contest with a 2-0 record in the preseason while Dallas is now 1-1 this preseason. San Francisco is 3-0 ATS against conference opponents last 3 years in preseason action. Dallas is 12-33 ATS since 1992 in all games when the total is between 35 1/2 and 42 points in the preseason. I like this Mike Singletary as a coach. The 49ers finished 5-2 last year under Singletary in regular season play and I think they will continue to improve under his leadership. One super system says to Play Against any home favorite of 7 or more points off a SU and ATS win vs an opponent that has won at least one game in the preseason. This system is 18-4 ATS since 1983!! Dallas is 1-9 ATS at home vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:56 am
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MTI Sports

Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Under

The Twins are 0-10 OU at home after a win in which they did not draw a walk and The Rangers are 5-27 OU when they are off a loss in which they never led. Consider these two UNDER.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 7:58 am
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Jim Feist

Rays at Tigers
Pick: Tigers

Detroit is dominant at home, starting 40-20, yet they are a home dog to a Tampa Bay team not so hot on the road. Nate Robertson gets brought up and a good start will keep him in the rotation. The Rays go with young David Price, who is erratic at 6-6 with an ERA close to 5. He walks a lot of batters, something you can't do in this park. A good spot for the first place home dog. Play the Tigers.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:14 am
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Jimmy Moore

New Orleans @ Oakland
Pick: New Orleans -2.5

The Saints high octane offense will be lighting up the scoreboard in the 1st half behind the starters in this game. Oakland will not be able to recover by the time the backups take the field in the 2nd half. Take the Saints to get the win and cover.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:15 am
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Great Lakes Sports

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Play Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a stellar 4-1 ATS in preseason vs the Buffalo Bills since 1993, and the Steelers are 10-6 ATS vs conference opponents since 1993. The Buffalo Bills are a terrible 12-16 vs conference opponents since 1993, and they are only 6-9 ATS vs AFC North opponents since 1993. We look for the Pittsburgh Steelers to dismantle the Buffalo Bills for the home Win & cover tonight.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:18 am
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DAVE COKIN

BALTIMORE RAVENS / CAROLINA PANTHERS
TAKE CAROLINA PANTHERS

Several advantages for the Panthers as they host the Ravens. Baltimore is on the short week having played on Monday, and prep time in pre-season can be crucial. In fact, Carolina has had two extra days to get ready for this contest. It's the home opener for the Panthers, and John Fox is hoping for a sharper effort from his team, as they've been dull so far. Part of that was by design, as Fox has run a "soft" camp this summer to try and minimize wear and tear. But I would think he'll want to get something positive accomplished tonight, so I'll go with the Panthers minus the points.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:19 am
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Hentai Sports

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs will be very confident against Norris, who gave up 6 earned in 1 inning against them just 6 days ago. In fact, the Diamondbacks are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Garland has been up and down this season but he’s capable of pitching very well. He actually opposed Norris in a Houston last week. The Astros are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 1-7 in their last 8 Saturday games.

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:21 am
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Hollywood Sports

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlnata Falcons

The Chargers are coming off a 17-6 road win against the Cardinals last week but look for San Diego to experience a letdown in their second straight road game where they have to travel across the country to face the Falcons. The Chargers are the clear favorite to win the AFC West. As they enter the third preseason game of the season, this team is in cruise control waiting for the season to start with little left to accomplish. Atlanta will be fired up to be playing their first home game of the preseason. The first team unit was dominant against the Rams last week. Matt Ryan was 7-8 for 81 yards and a touchdown in just two series of plays. Running back Michael Turner was 7-65 in the first series alone. The first team unit was also very good in week one against Detroit -- remember, it was a late 4th quarter comeback by the third and fourth stringers that led the Lions to that win. The Falcons have a strong running game with both Turner and Jerious Norwood. And with Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez joining the club to compliment Pro Bowl wide receiver Roddy White, Atlanta enjoys a potent passing attack. This balance will challenge the San Diego defense. Furthermore, Philip Rivers was sacked four times in just one quarter against the Cardinals. San Diego needs to shore up that offensive line against a solid Falcons' D-line led by John Abraham. Overall, the Falcons will be anxious to return home while the Chargers are primed for a letdown. Lay the points with the Falcons.

Play on: Atlanta

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 8:23 am
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Drew Gordon

Now on a 48-36 roll with the plays I'm giving away! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the San Francisco/Dallas match up...

One game removed from crushing the Titans 30-10, I know plenty of bettors are lining up to ride the Cowboys, as they host the 49ers Saturday night. Sorry to rain on your parade boys, but sharp bettors know laying a touchdown in an exhibition game is usually a mistake, even in Week 3's dress rehearsal. Point is, you simply cannot trust the 2nd and 3rd stringers to protect the lead (much like the Pats last night), even if they're only playing 1 1/2 quarters. More of the same tonight, as I expect the 'Boys to take the early lead but end up getting backdoored late.

While there's no question the Cowboys offense is superior, I like what I've seen from the 49ers thus far, playing hard-nosed D, coupled with a run-first offense. They rushed the ball 47 times against the Raiders last week, and with the Titans rolling up 191 rushing yards on the Cowboys last week, I expect the 49ers to be effective toting the rock. The easiest way to slow Romo and this Dallas offense is to keep them off the field, and the 49ers' Glen Coffee and Michael Robinson look great backing up the incumbent Gore.

Defensively, coach Singletary is instilling many of the same values he played with in his team, as San Fran is actually allowing 100 fewer total yards/game during the preseason than is Dallas (393 vs 293). Cowboys first team defense has playmakers, but overall these two units are not as far apart as you'd think.

Finally, there's public perception, as bettors will back the Cowboys no matter what the number, which is of course, ridiculous. True, they looked good vs the Titans last week, but 16 of those 30 points came in garbage time, while the Titans sorry-ass 3rd stringers floundered in the 4th quarter. You can follow the herd if you want to, but this handicapper knows better... Look for the underdog to deliver the cash in this match up.

Take San Francisco plus the points over Dallas in this NFL Preseason match up.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

 
Posted : August 29, 2009 9:35 am
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