Tom Stryker
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+) over Carolina Panthers
Baltimore applies to one of my best game three Pre-Season systems and I'm going to take the Ravens plus the points.
According to my NFL database, game three teams coming off back-to-back straight up wins are a reliable 33-17 ATS provided they're matched up against a game three opponent that arrives off a SU and ATS loss. If our "play on" side tackles a foe that checks in off a blowout loss of seven points or more, this system actually improves to a phenomenal 25-8-1 ATS! Green Bay won in this situation last night at Arizona and Baltimore applies to the general angle and tightener tonight.
As an August road dog matched up against an opponent entering off a straight up loss, the Black Birds have quietly cashed 12 of their last 17 battles. The defensive-minded Ravens will frustrate the Panthers and keep this game close. Take Baltimore plus the points.
American Sports Handicapping Network
PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO +7 over Dallas
Dallas comes in at 1-1 this preseason off a blowout 20 point win over Tennessee, while San Francisco comes in at 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS with one point wins in both games at home. San Francisco’s running game has been superb in their two games thus far as they are averaging 206 rushing yards per game. Oakland already ran for 176 yards against Dallas earlier this preseason, and I fully expect San Francisco to have success in that area as well. On the flipside, don’t expect Dallas’ quarterbacks to complete 76% of their passes like they did against Tennessee here. That was a true anomaly, and I expect them to be back to reality here today. San Francisco also qualifies in two very good preseason systems that are 38-20 ATS and 13-2 ATS since 1993 regardless of the spread situation they are in, and also qualify in 14-0 ATS, 14-1 ATS, 12-1 ATS, and a 18-4 ATS pre-season bettings as long as they remain +7 or more.
Tony Mathews
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Selection: Kansas/Seattle Over 8.5
Explanation: We expect a high-scoring game as the Kansas City Royals face-off against the Seattle Mariners in Saturday's MLB game.
The Kansas City Royals will use starting pitcher Gil Meche. Gil Meche has struggled this season. In fact, Gil Meche has a 4.75 ERA this season. In addition, Gil Meche has a 6.35 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Gil Meche giving up many runs today.
The Seattle Mariners will use starting pitcher Ian Snell. Ian Snell has also struggled this season. In fact, Ian Snell has a 5.40 ERA this season. We see Ian Snell also giving up many runs today.
The OVER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these teams, and we expect to see another high-scoring game today!
Take the Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners Over 8.5
Craig Davis
Stop me if you're heard this one before. Another winning day with my dime plays (20-dime winner on Milwaukee and 10-dime winner on San Francisco) along with yet another free play winner on the Green Bay Packers plus the points over Arizona. That makes 28 OF MY LASAT 37 free plays coming out as winners. Yeah, a 28-9 record in 37 free play releases!!! So let's just continue that roll with another easy winner in the NFL.
Tonight's free play winner is on the Seattle Seahawks plus the points over Kansas City. Look, I like Matt Cassel a lot, and I think Todd Haley is one of the best offensive minds in the game, but this team is still finding itself. There is still some uncertainty as to whether or not Cassel or Brodie Croyle is going to be this team's starting QB, and no matter who wins the job they're going to have to find a replacement for TE Tony Gonzalez. After Dwayne Bowe, there isn't much in the cupboard in terms of receivers unless Mark Bradley, Devard Darling or Bobby Engram steps up. For Seattle, they appear to be gelling together at the right time. Matt Hassselbeck is healthy, Edgerrin James was brought in to help with consistency at the RB position, and TJ Houshmandzadeh brings a legitimate threat on the perimeter. TE John Carlson is one of the best young TEs in the league and has started to learn how to block in the running game this year. Both defenses are at about the same point right now, with a slight nod to Seattle. All things being equal, I just think the Seahawks are better and seem to be more prepared, yet they are getting points. Go figure. Seattle wins.
2♦ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ATS Consultants
Indianapolis Colts vs. Detroit Lions OVER 39.5
It’s dress rehersal day for both of these teams as the season approaches in a few weeks. The Colts will have Peyton Manning playing the most he’s played all pre season, and the #1 offense in the league will gunning to make some plays against the woeful Lions defense.
Daunte Culpepper will make the start for Detroit, with Matthew Stafford getting the bulk of the second half action. They’ll certainly be able to put up some points today, but the question is will they be able to stop anyone. I say no, so expect a high scoring game.
Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 8
Good pitchiing matchup tonight in Philly, weather permitting. Derek Lowe goes for the Braves while Cliff Lee, who has been AMAZING thus far for the Phillies takes the hill.
Lowe (12-8, 4.48) hasn’t been his usual self this year, struggling at times while trying to find consistency. He has however, been great against the Phillies in 2009. He’s 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings pitched. He’ll pitch well today, but will it be well enough against Lee.
Lee (5-0, 0.68) has literally been unhittable since coming over from Cleveland. Philadelphia is going to be very tough to beat if Lee keeps going like this. He’s allowed just 24 hits and 3 runs in 40 innings pitched. He’s been unreal, and that is unlikely to change as September approaches.
LT Profits
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners
Ian Snell is coming off of back-to-back solid efforts for the Seattle Mariners, while Gil Meche is more than capable of holding down the Seattle offense for the Kansas City Royals, so look for these teams to sneak Under this total this evening.
Snell showed glimpses of ability while he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but it was his inconsistency that made him expendable despite the fact that his lower salary would have been a perfect fit has he stayed in Pittsburgh. He has had surprising success in the American League thus far though.
Snell has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts in a Mariners uniform, and he is coming off of probably his toe best starts of the entire year no matter where he called home. He allowed exactly one run and four hits in each of his last two outings, and the fact that he pieced these outings together is an encouraging sign that he may have finally gained some consistency.
Now Meche is probably considered a disappointment this year for the Royals, as he is just 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA. He has certainly be unspectacular, but at least Meche has been very consistent, allowing four runs or less in 18 of his 22 starts. He is certainly capable of putting up a Quality Start here tonight vs. a Mariners lineup that is batting a pathetic .214 vs. right-handed pitching the last 10 games.
Granted the last five head-to-head meetings have all gone Over, but we see that streak coming to an end given this pitching matchup.
Pick: Royals/Mariners Under 8.5
EZWINNERS
Indianapolis Colts @ Detroit Lions
Play: Indianapolis Colts -3
This is the dress rehearsal for the regular season when the starters get the bulk of the playing time. The Colts offenses was clicking in their last preseason game against the Eagles and I expect Indy to keep rolling here. The Lions rush defense has been gashed for big gains in both of their pre-season games and if the Colts have any kind of success on the ground it will be a long game for Detroit. The Lions don't have the offensive weapons to match scores with Indianapolis. Lay the points.
SID ROSENBERG
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Jets at Giants
Pick:Giants -3
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Earlier today the New York Jets named Mark Sanchez as the 2009 starting quarterback. That means playing time and pressure. Much different preparing when you know you're the starter. The third preseason game is where the starters play most so expect Sanchez to get lots of playing time against an angry Giants team. The Giants were miserable in a 17-3 loss at Chicago to the Bears last week. Not a great spot for a rookie just days into being a starter. The Giants will win by at least a touchdown.
Andre Gomes
Detroit Shock @ San Antonio Silver Stars
Yesterday I took the Lyxn by saying that the Lynx would give their lives if needed to win that game after having lost their last six games. Well...for today it's the Silver Stars who are in a similar spot, as they need badly to win this contest (even more with the Lynx's win yesterday). The Stars are 0-4 in their last 4 games and in their last game, they were crushed by the Fever. That game marked the first time with the Stars' jersey in which Becky Hammon was scoreless in a whole game: 0-5 FG with more than 30 minutes on court! Before that game, they had been also spanked by the Detroit 84-99, while allowing the Shock to shoot 57.4% from the field and 10-17 behind the arc! So, this is a strong bounce back and revenge game spot for San Antonio.
Certainly I'm aware that Detroit is now playing their best basketball of the season and they are currently riding on 4-games winning streak. Last game they defeated Atlanta 87-83 in a tight ballgame, but today they are primed for a letdown. My projected scenario is for a strong start from the Silver Stars and I'm sticking with a Halftime play instead of the full game because if somehow my projected scenario doesn't work, the game will likely be a ballgame and the Stars with a spread of 3 points to cover lose all the value and that's why I like the Silver Stars to have a strong start, as they will be playing today on a bounce back and revenge spot, with Becky Hammon commanding the Silver Stars. Take San Antonio in here at the break
Single Dime Play on San Antonio Silver Stars HALF TIME (-1.5)
Tony George
Seattle +3
Unfortunatley KC's preseason is not going well, and the key tonight for head coach Todd Haley is to determine the fate of QB Tyler Thigpen. They want a hard look at him in all the 3rd and into the 4th quarter. He has been lousy in the pocket all year, and KC's offensive line has been deplorable. RB Johnson averaging just 2.8 yards per carry, and KC has not had a pass longer than 22 yards all preseason, QB Cassel has been running for his life. Seattle is sneaky good and while the injury list is bigger for the Hawks, I think they score nmore points and have deeper talent and win outright.
Wrong team favored..I like Seattle.
Spartan
I am going back to the well so to speak here as I am suggesting a wager on the run line with the Angels and Jered Weaver as they continue their series with the A's. Weaver was the starter monday evening in that wild game that saw the Angels actually fall behind Detroit 10-0 before rallying to only fall 10-7. Weaver was getting squeezed pretty good by the ump in that game and I feel it got into his head some and then the bullpen was just shelled. I am thinking a pitcher than has been having an outing like that in his head all week will be raring to go tonight to set things right. I feel like Jered is getting the draw he needs here as well with Oakland going with rookie Vin Mazzaro who has now actually dropped 9 of his last 11 dscisions. Mazzaro has one start against this Angels club from earlier and he was just shelled for 8 runs and 10 hits in working only 3 frames. I'm taking the Angels here on the run line and letting the books keep the heavy chalk.
Scott Rickenbach
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: Under 8.5
Apparently we missed the "memo" that must have gotten sent out on this one. Inexplicably, this total has risen from a 7.5 to an 8.5 and we feel this is offering great line value to under players. The Rockies just don't hit well on the road. Also, everytime Barry Zito faces the Rockies in San Francisco it seems to turn into a low-scoring pitchers duel. Let's not forget that last night's game was a 2-0 final.
Friday's game is just typical of how many games play out at AT & T Park in San Francisco. In six career starts at San Francisco, Jason Marquis of the Rockies if 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA. As For Zito, he has allowed just 11 earned runs in his last eight starts! We look for another strong outing from him here as he has an amazing 2.03 ERA in his career starts against Colorado and that includes starts at Coors Field! A repeat of last night's pitchers duel would not surprise here. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in San Francisco.
BEN BURNS
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
While still too "expensive" to qualify as one of my "guaranteed" selections, the price on the Phillies has come down enough to the point where I now believe they are offering us some reasonable value. That may sound strange to some, as the Phillies are still a large favorite. However, given the current form of today's starter, I believe the price could easily be much higher.
Lee has been everything that the Phillies had hoped for - and then some. Indeed, he's 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA with the Phillies! His teams are now 8-0 in his last eight starts with Lee allowing one earned run or less in seven of those (incl. all five with Philly) and two in the other. Over his last three starts, he's 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.708 WHIP.
By comparison, Lowe's recent numbers look pretty bad. Over his last three starts, he's gone 1-1 with an ugly 7.47 ERA and an awful 2.042 WHIP. For the season, he's got a poor 5.11 ERA on the road.
Consider laying the wood with Lee and the champs.
Tom Freese
Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Seattle is 6-1 their last games as home favorites and they are 20-7 games as favorites of -110 to -150. The Mariners are 29-12 their last 41 games as favorites and they are 14-4 their last 18 meetings with the Royals in Seattle. Kansas City is 16-33 their last 49 road games and they are 4-15 their last 19 games vs. AL West teams. The Royals are 5-11 in the last 16 starts made by Gil Meche and they are 4-11 their last 15 road games vs. teams with a winning record. PLAY ON SEATTLE -
Tommy Gill
New Orleans and Oakland Over 41 for 2 units
Both teams have done very well offensively this preseason so far Oakland games have averaged 41 points a game the first two weeks and New Orleans games are averaging about 40. They put up 38 points against Houston in Houston last week having over 400 yards of offense. I am still not big on New Orleans defense in which Oakland is deep at RB and QB this season and they can exploit the secondary especially in the second half. I see this having a normal result of 45 points scored with the Saints and Oakland getting over 20 points each. We expect both offenses to put up some points especially New Orleans early and Oakland in the second half with their depth.