Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 3

John Ryan

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The simulator shows a high probability that the CWS will win this game. I can tell you from nearly 19 years of experience that playing these massive DOGS consistently over the course of a MLB season will make you a profit. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?102-111 record for only 48% winners, but has made a whopping 74 units per unit wagered since 1997. This system has averaged a plus 185 DOG play. By analogy, how would you like to play 213 hands of Black Jack and win just 48% of the hands played, yet walk out of the casino a big winner of $7,400 per $100 hand played? That is exactly what this system has done for nearly 16 years. On an individual game basis, this obviously appears to be a stretch, but my free pick 10* plays are on a recent 19-16 run, BUT has made 8.03 units/unit wagered. Take the CWS.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago Cubs +100

There is simply too much value to ignore on the Cubs at home in this matchup against the Dodgers. Jeff Samardzija has been lethal in his last three starts, posting a 1.80 ERA. The Dodgers will have Chris Capuano getting the start and he has a 3-6 record in his 13 starts this season. In those 13 games he has put up a 4.73 ERA.

Over their past seven games the Dodgers have scored 2.6 runs per game. They will struggle to improve on that number today when they are up against the Cub's ace. Chicago has done a great job of putting runs on the board at home this year. They are scoring 4.5 runs per game and should have no problem matching, or even exceeding that average against Capuano.

Jeffrey Brandes

San Diego Padres +104

Pitchers:
New York Yankees: Ivan Nova, RHP 4-4, 3.41 ERA
San Diego Padres: Tyson Ross, RHP 2-4, 2.90 ERA

The Padres beat the Yankees last night 7-2.

Ross was dominant in his last start, allowing three hits over eight scoreless innings against the D-backs. He walked one and struck out seven.

Key Trends:
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Yankees are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games

Alex Smart

Los Angeles Dodgers -119

These are two teams that are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum. The Dodgers are 29-7 since June 22, which inlcudes 12 straight road wins. Meanwhile the Cubs are 1-5 to start their eight-game homestand.

As far as starting pitching goes the Dodgers are 11-1 in Capuanos last 12 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 .while the Cubs are 1-5 in Samardzijas last 6 starts as a home underdog. The edge goes to the red hot LA Dodgers.

Jim Feist

Indians vs. Marlins
Play: Under 7½

The under is 9-3-1 in the Indians last 13 interleague road games and they head to Miami, a huge park, great for pitchers. Zach McAllister doesn't walk anyone and faces a terrible Miami offense, and note that the under is 11-4-1 in McAllister's last 16 road starts. The under is also 18-8-1 in the Indians last 27 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. At least Miami has a good starter going in Jacob Turner (2.65 ERA) and Cleveland has never faced him before. The under is 15-4-4 in the Marlins last 23 interleague home games and when these teams meet the under is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings.

Steve Janus

Minnesota Twins -140

The Twins will come into this one riding a high-note as they rallied late to beat the Astros 4-3 Friday, snapping a 4-game losing streak. I fully expect them to build off that performance with another victory over the lowly Astros on Saturday. Houston has lost 4 of their last 5 overall and that sets up a very profitable situation, as they are a mere 47-108 over their last 155 games when they come in having lost 4 of 5. It's also worth noting that the Twins are a dominant 13-4 over their last 17 games played on Saturday. Typically specific day stats aren't that important, but I think it comes into play on weekend games. Some teams like to go out and party, while others stay focused on the task at hand.

Most importantly, I like the pitching matchup in this one. The Twins Kyle Gibson was roughed up his last outing, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings at Seattle. However, he had allowed just 5 earned runs on 10 hits in his two previous starts. I like his chances of shutting down a pretty weak Houston offense. The Astros will counter with Erik Bedard, who is 1-6 with a 5.79 ERA over 11 road starts. Minnesota's offense should give Gibson plenty of run-support to pick up an easy win. B

Doug Upstone

Boston Red Sox -147

On Saturday, Play Against underdogs like Arizona with a money line of +100 or higher, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70 percent, against AL opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season. Since 2009, this system is 50-11, 82.0 percent, which includes a perfect 8-0 record this season.

Dave Price

Milwaukee Brewers +119

Dan Haren has been good fade material all season. It appears the veteran right-hander has already thrown his best ball as he's 5-11 with a 5.49 ERA in 19 starts this season. The Nationals have lost 14 of these. He's had a very rough go of it on the road where he's 1-7 with a 4.99 ERA in 10 starts. Washington has dropped nine of these. The Nationals are 1-9 this season in Haren's starts versus losing clubs. They are 0-8 this season in his starts versus clubs that are getting outscored by 0.5 runs or more per game. The value lies with the home Brewers in the underdog role given Haren's struggles.

Jeff Alexander

Rockies/Pirates UNDER 7

Look for a pitching duel between De La Rosa and Liriano to finish under the number. De La Rosa is 10-5 with a 3.21 ERA in 22 starts and has held opponents to 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Liriano is 11-4 with a 2.16 ERA in 15 starts and has been nearly unhittable at home where he's 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA. He's held opponents to 2 earned runs or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts. Bet the Under.

Jack Jones

Baltimore Orioles -175

I'll lay this hefty price with the Baltimore Orioles Saturday with confidence. Given the edge they have on the mound and at the plate, this is almost free money tonight folks.

The Orioles have scored a combined 17 runs over the past two days. Scott Feldman looks to build off an already solid season. The right-hander has gone 9-8 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 20 starts this season.

I'll gladly fade Seattle's Erasmo Ramirez, who has been rocked in limited action this year. Ramirez has posted a 7.71 ERA and 1.775 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs over 16 1/3 innings.

Seattle is 37-78 (-27.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Feldman is 9-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Bet the Orioles Saturday.

Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Orioles -183

We will Play the run line at -1.5 here as the line is a bit high. Baltimore does qualify in a solid 20-3 system here tonight. We want to play on certain home favorites off a home win by 2+ runs while scoring 10 or more and taking on an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs while scoring 5+ runs. Baltimore has won 7 straight here in the series. Seattle has been getting killed with a Leak Bullpen with a road era approaching 6 on the season. They have lost 4 straight and have Ramirez and his 7.71 era making his first start on the road. He may struggle with this tough Orioles Lineup. Baltimore has S. Feldman going and he has been decent since arriving in a trade. Look for Baltimore to coast to another Win.

Art Aronson

Arizona vs. Boston
Play: Under 8½

Patrick Corbin (12-2, 2.24 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Corbin is coming off a tough-luck loss to the Friars on Sunday, giving up one run off six hits with no walks while striking out eight over eight innings of work. The setback halted a three-game win streak; despite that though, Corbin has clearly been one of the best in the league and has allowed one run or less in four straight starts and in 12 overall this year. He'll take his very respectable 4-1, 3.28 ERA road record into Boston to throw opposite Jake Peavy (8-4, 4.28 ERA) who will make his debut for his new team tonight. Peavy performed very well in the "friendly confines" of US Cellular Field, going 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA. These are two lineups which can get the job done at the plate, but with these two studs duelling it out on the bump on Saturday night, I believe the table is set for a classic duel; consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

Bruce Marshall

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs

Tough to pick against the Dodgers these days, considering their franchise (including Brooklyn) record 12-game road win streak and 29-7 mark since June 25. And LA has rediscovered its offense in the first two games of this weekend set at Wrigley Field, scoring 6 runs in both Thursday and Friday wins. But Saturday starter Chris Capuano, even with impressive career marks vs. the Cubs, is hard to trust with what have been wildly inconsistent efforts since returning from the DL. Capuano has allowed zero, seven, six, zero, five and zero runs in his past six starts. For once in this series, the pitching edge might go to the Cubs and Jeff Samardzija, the former Domer who has posted a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts. The Cubs are also getting a boost from their own version of Yasiel Puig, rookie OF Junior Lake. who went 4 for 5 on Friday after hitting a pair of solo home runs Thursday. Lake, batting .358, is the first Cubs player since at least 1916 to collect four hits twice in his first 16 games.

Sports Experts 17

Chicago Sky at Indiana Fever
Pick: Indiana Fever

We are impressed about Indiana Fever, the team with more injured players of the entire league has been outstanding in their last 10 games, just take a look, this girls won 7 out of 10 including all them ATS. Tonight they host one of the 3 best teams in the league: Chicago Sky coming to this game winning 8 of their last 10 and with a push of a -7 points spread last night against Washington Mystics. This numbers and Sky's 13-5 record will not scare Indiana this Saturday.