Jesse Schule
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Texas Rangers +1.5
After blowing out Oakland in the series opener at Overstock Coliseum last night, Texas has now won five straight. They trail the A's by just 2.5 games in the American League West, and they will try to continue to close the gap in Game 2 of the series Saturday. Matt Garza will toe the rubber for the visitors, and he's certainly lived up to expectations since his arrival in Texas. Garza (7-1, 2.95 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over seven innings, but didn't get credit for the win as Texas slipped past the Angels by a score of 4-3 in his last outing. Prior to that he allowed a single run on five hits over seven innings in a 3-1 win over the Yankees. He was fantastic in a win over the A's at Overstock earlier this season, going eight strong innings allowing a single run on four hits. The Athletics hand the ball to 24 year old right-hander Jarrod Parker, who hasn't been all that sharp lately. Parker (6-6, 4.07 ERA) allowed six runs on five hits over five innings, not factoring in the decision in a 10-6 slugfest as the A's out-gunned the Angels in his last outing. He's winless in his last six starts, and Oakland has lost five of those six games. Another troubling statistic for Parker is that his ERA at home (4.81) is much worse than on the road (3.32). Parker hasn't been very impressive, and he's in a tough spot here this afternoon. Texas comes in swinging the bats well, having outscored their opponents 31-16 over their last four games. The Rangers are going to be tough to beat in Oakland today. Take Texas +1.5
Dave Essler
LA Dodgers -115
Samardzija has been terrible at home. The Dodgers are 7-1 as slight road favorites this season. They're over .500 on the road, have clearly the better bullpen, the better hitters, and the only thing in their way is Samardzija, who most of the Dodgers have seen and hit. Just cannot over-think this one too much, win or lose.
Joe Gavazzi
Detroit -1½ -130
You will see why it is absolutely critical to have these run lines handy if you are wagering any MLB in the month of August. This is an example of 2 teams going opposite directions with home-standing Super-Surging Detroit hosting Towel Tossing CWS. Yet because the line maker has reflected the divergence in these teams, it is important to know when or when not to play the run line. CWS enters on negative runs of 16-43, 1-11 and 0-8. Detroit is on runs of 19-7, 10-1 and 6-0. Detroit has won 10/11 recent home games, 9/10 of those wins were by 2 or more runs. On the mound it is ana equal mismatch. For the year, Scherzer is 15-1 with a 3.01 ERA, 164/31KBB and a 0.92 WHIP. Detroit has won 8/10 Scherzer starts by 2 or more runs. The Tigers provide Scherzer with an average of 7.6 run support, best in MLB. Against CWS recently, Scherzer is 3-0 allowing 3 runs on 12 hits with 21 Ks in 22 IP. Detroit has won 9/11 Scherzer home starts. Danks is 2-8 for the year with a 4.57 ERA. In his last 5 starts, Danks is 0-3 with a 4.86 ERA. On the road, CWS is 1-6 in Danks starts where he has a 5.36 ERA. Finally in his last 4 starts vs. Detroit, Danks has an 11.90 ERA. Run line players take note: the Tigers are among the best in baseball at blowouts, 51/2 victories including 29/35 on this field have been by 2 or more runs. Detroit run line!
Bryan Power
San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Under
The Giants surprised the Rays last night, beating them 4-1. It was only Tampa Bay's sixth loss in 27 games and the first time they've lost B2B games in over month. David Price clearly gives the team a good chance to bounce back tonight, but I think the Under is the better play here.
The Rays have scored just one run combined the last two games. They have gone Under in 19 of 26 games overall, including four straight. Obviously, their superb pitching has played a major role in that, ace David Price included. Price has a 2.31 ERA his last three starts and has allowed just one run in each of his L2 starts, both of which were in Boston. One was a complete game. The Under cashed both times. San Francisco comes in averaging just 3.8 runs per game vs. lefties.
Offensively, the Giants have been very weak. Though they won yesterday, they have scored more than four runs only twice in the last 14 games. Starter Tim Lincecum has pitched well in two of his last three starts, one of them a complete game shut out and then last time out he allowed just two runs over seven innings. Here he faces a Rays lineup that had only three hits Wednesday before scoring just one time yesterday.
Will Rogers
Yankees vs. Padres
Pick: Under
The Yankees failed to come through for me yesterday, so I'm switching courses here and taking the Under tonight in San Diego. These are two weak hitting lineups and we will have a battle of two starting pitchers that have been on fire lately. The low number is justified, but it's not low enough.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Ivan Nova - The Yankees starter comes in with a 2.05 ERA his last three starts. But a problem has been that his offense has failed to score for him in either of his last two trips to the mound. I probably don't even need to state that both games obviously went Under.
2. Tyson Ross - The Padres starter has been even sharper than Nova of late as his ERA is 0.96 over his last three starts. His last outing resulted in a 1-0 victory for the team at Arizona. Ross allowed only three hits. So, if you're keeping score at home, we have two starting pitchers here who were involved in 1-0 finals their last starts. Sounds great to me if you're playing the Under!
3. X-Factor - Though yesterday's game went Over, the Yankees are still 12-3 Under in Interleague Play this season.
BRETT ATKINS
Playing the Detroit Tigers on the Run Line for your complimentary winner, as I think they're about to put it on the struggling White Sox in a furious manner.
The Tigers - who have won six straight, while the South Siders have lost eight in a row - lead the American League Central by three games, over the Cleveland Indians. The Tigers have come together to produce as a team and that won't change tonight, as I feel the players know this is a time they need to rally around one another.
With the distraction of the Biogenesis situation, which implicated Cesar Carillo, who was released by the Tigers yesterda, and also third baseman Miguel Cabrera, who was scratched from last night's starting lineup after taking ground balls during batting practice prior to the game, Detroit can't afford to slip up with the Cleveland Indians on its heels.
Now, as I stated I do not care who the listed pitchers will be, but I clearly need to acknowledge who will be listed, and that appears to be Chicago's John Danks and Detroit's Max Scherzer.
That won't help the South Siders one bit, as the Tigers' right-hander has emerged as the staff's newet ace. Scherzer is just the fourth pitcher since 1979 to win at least 15 of his first 16 decisions.
The Tigers have won five of eight meetings with the White Sox this season, and tonight the run continues, as I'm taking the Motown boys over the South Siders. Do it on the Run Line.
3* DETROIT -1.5
BRAD WILTON
Saturdays free play is to back another Over in the Atlanta Braves game.
Atlanta made it 8 straight wins last night with the 6-4 win in Philly, as the Bravos have been tearing the cover off the ball during their current winning streak, scoring 57 runs along the way.
The Braves have played Over the total in each of their last 5 wins, and with starter Brandon Beachy making just his second start (his first not too promising) of the season, I will look for the runs to continue to add up.
The Phillies are on a 5-1 Over run their last 6 games, and the Over in the series has cashed in 4 times in a row, and 6 of the 7 overall meetings this year.
Nothing changes today, Braves-Phillies Over the total.
4* ATLANTA-PHILADELPHIA OVER
SCOTT DELANEY
I want you investing in the Baltimore Orioles on the Run Line, as I think they're going to take it to the travel-worn Seattle Mariners, who have lost four straight and six of seven. This will be their fifth consecutive road game in as many days, with every game thus far on this trip has resulted in a loss.
Now as you may well be aware, Run Line plays and Totals automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager. In this game tonight, I am not concerned with who goes for either team and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless. That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, by re-wagering the game if that takes place.
See, what we have here is an O's team that has climbed into a playoff spot after outslugging the Mariners in last night's series-opener of their three-game set. Baltimore is now a half game in front of the Cleveland Indians for the second wild-card berth in the American League. Though Seattle has scored a total of 15 runs over its last two games, its pitching staff has allowed 19.
Things don't get any easier today, as you'll likely see Seattle's Erasmo Ramirez on your ticket, and he has a rather high 7.71 ERA this season. Now he has to tackle a Baltimore team that ranks fifth in the league with its .266 batting average. At home, the O's are 12th in the bigs with a .260 batting average inside Camden Yards.
Baltimore also ranks in the top 5 in home runs (1st), slugging percentage (1st), doubles (3rd), hits (4th), runs scored (4th) and RBI (4th).
Remember, keep an eye on the pitchers cause in the event of a scratch, you're going to have to re-wager the game with the new hurler, whoever it would be, because the Orioles on the run line are the play.
2* BALTIMORE -1.5
JEFF BENTON
Saturday freebie is the Cleveland Indians to square their weekend set with Miami behind the pitching of Zach McAllister.
Miami beat Cleveland like a drum last night, taking the series opener 10-0 to stop an 8 game Indians winning streak, but I like the Tribe to get right back on the beam and win this Saturday showdown.
McAllister is 0-1 with an ERA of 3.75 in his pair of starts back after missing 7 weeks of action with a sprained ankle, but I am confident he will match pitches with the impressive Jacob Turner who is on a 3-0 roll his last 5 starts with a 2.23 ERA.
The Marlins have been playing better ball, and are looking for their 4th win in a row, but at this price tonight, my money will be on the "value chalk" Indians to make it an 9-1 run their last 10 games.
1* CLEVLELAND
CHRIS JORDAN
My free winner for Saturday is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. There is no line as of 6 a.m. pacific, but I'm sure it won't be long enough to where you're forced to play the Run Line. Gauge the line your book is giving you and be sure you're not laying too big a price. Again, I don't think it'll get as high as 1.60, but in the event it does, you'll want this on the Run Line.
In fact, there's part of me that wishes the line does creep up and this ends up on the Run Line. I mean seriously, the Phillies are stuggling with their starting rotation due to injuries, and today will trot left-hander John Lannan to the mound on just three days' rest, while rookie Jonathan Pettibone is now on the 15-day disabled list with a strained right shoulder.
Atlanta won last night's series-opener, 6-4, and extended its advantage over the third-place Phillies to 14-1/2 games in the National League East. Philadelphia has lost 11 of its past 12, scoring just 28 runs during that stretch, so you can tell the frustration must be setting in for the normally contending beast from the East.
I'm guessing we'll see a line around -1.40. Play smart and shop for the best line in this game. Take Atlanta.
1* ATLANTA
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. ANGELS -1½ +128 over Toronto
The Blue Jays are 0-2 in this series and things don’t figure to get any better here with Esmil Rogers on the hill. Rogers’ is a pitcher in trouble. He’s never pitched more than in 83 innings in a season and he’s already up to 89 this year. Not only is Rogers’ durability in question, his confidence is shot after allowing 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 17 innings. Rogers has been absolutely torched in four of his last five games and he now has the daunting task of having to face a hot-hitting line-up that has gone off for 15 runs in the past two games and 27 runs in the last four. Rogers has a history of being hit hard. He was torched in 2011 and then escaped Colorado for Cleveland, where he was hit hard there as well. A rejuvenated Rogers appeared for a short while this year but he’s back to being the same stiff he was in Colorado and Cleveland. Rogers is a guy that throws way too many pitches right down Broadway and hitters are feasting off him. The Angels should do the same.
Jered Weaver is winning games again. He’s 2-0 over his past three starts with an ERA of 0.42. At home this season, Weaver is 5-2 with a 2.84 ERA. There’s also a good chance that Weaver will be pitching with a comfortable lead very early on and should that come to pass, this assignemnt becomes much easier. Weaver had a rough start to the year but he’s now pitching at top form. That said, this one has nothing to do with backing Weaver but everything to do with backing a sizzling offense against a laboring Esmil Rogers.
Texas +109 over OAKLAND
We’ve been maintaining for some time now that the A’s winning pace is unsustainable with an offense that ranks in the same range as the Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Cubs and Twins. Alexi Ogando walked five batters and allowed four hits in the first four innings last night but the A’s could not do much damage. They ended up losing 8-3 and did not score again after the fourth inning. Against the Blue Jays on Thursday, the A’s scored two unearned runs and lost a game in which Toronto committed four errors. Oakland has now lost three in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here against Matt Garza. In two starts since coming over from the Cubbies, Garza has allowed just 10 hits and three earned runs in 14.1 frames for an ERA of 1.88. Garza has posted an ERA in the 3’s every year since 2007 and current A’s have just 18 hits against him in 89 career AB’s for a BA of just .202. Garza and the Rangers taking back a tag against this overvalued squad holds true value.
Texas is making a move. They were six games behind Oakland in the AL West earlier this week and they are now just 2½ games back after winning its fifth straight last night. The Rangers offense has woken up with 35 runs scored over their current five-game winning streak and that’s bad news for Jarrod Parker. Over his last five starts covering 25 frames, Parker has walked 12 and struck out 14. He has an xERA of 6.45 over that span but his actual ERA of 3.99 over that stretch has him grossly overpriced here. What’s even more alarming is that Parker has a 4.81 ERA at home at perhaps the best pitcher’s park in the league and certainly in the AL. Parkers skills have been on a steady decline for weeks and he now has to face a team that is seeing beach balls right now. Keep Jarrod Parker and the A’s on your radar as fade material because there is some profit to be made in wagering against them.
SAN DIEGO/N.Y. Yankees Under 7
New York has won just five of its past 15 games and dropped the opener in this series last night, 7-2. The Yanks are losing games at an unfamiliar pace because of an offense that can’t produce. The Yanks have now scored three runs or fewer in nine of their past 15 games and things don’t get easier here against Tyson Ross. In two starts since being inserted into the starting rotation, Ross has allowed just five hits in 14 innings at two hitter-friendly venues in Arizona and Milwaukee. Over those 14 innings, Ross struck out 13 and walked just three. Overall, Ross has appeared in 24 games this season but just five have been as a starter and that’s the role he’s most comfortable in. In 59 total innings this year, Ross has an elite 54% groundball rate and an outstanding 14% line-drive rate. Ross’s Achilles Heel in the past was a lack of control but he’s walked just four batters over his past 17 innings. He has the stuff to succeed and it appears he’s quickly figuring things out. Ross has a great shot to continue his hot run against the light hitting Yanks.
Ivan Nova lost his starting gig after an unlucky April (44% hit-rate/63% strand rate), followed by a triceps injury and a three-week stint in Triple-A thanks to the emergence of David Phelps. Fast forward to July and Phelps winds up on the DL and Nova's strings together four strong starts in a row. Are we buying his comeback? You better believe it. Last year's strikeout rate gains for Nova appear to be no fluke, as it has actually risen and his groundball rate has come along for the ride. Factor in hr/f% correction and Nova's ERA becomes palatable again, only this time with significant room for improvement. Nova's posted an impressive 28/6 K/BB in four starts since returning to the rotation and his skills suggest continued long-term success as long as he remains there upon Phelps' return. It’s not customary for us to play under 7 but these are two pitchers that are not only under the radar but have outstanding beneath the surface stats. That makes this ticket very cashable.
SPORTS WAGERS
Saul Roman +476 over Curtis Stevens
This is an intriguing fight with any outcome being possible. Curtis Stevens is a short fighter and a very hard hitter. If he gets untracked and unloads, he can create short and explosive nights. He holds terrific wins over Piotr Wilczewski, (a tough European vet that went the distance with Arthur Abraham and James De Gale) Elvin Ayala and Darnell Boone. But on the other end of the spectrum, he suffered a KO loss to journeyman Marcos Primera and Jesse Brinkley. Yes Jesse Brinkley, out-boxed him and beat him up over 12 rounds. Stevens can punch but he will fatigue and then he gets very sloppy. Stevens can be out-boxed and tends to get frustrated when he can’t connect to his liking.
Saul Roman is a solid Mexican journeyman/fringe contender. He has 9 losses sprinkled throughout his career but he is still a threat to many fighters. He’s a seasoned, experienced guy that seems very comfortable in the ring. Roman has fought a lot of tough guys and has had reasonable success. He gave Gabriel Rosado a very tough fight in a narrow loss; he upset Kassim Ouma, nearly had Vanes Martirosyan out but was stopped late in the fight and the list goes on. Roman is a tall fighter with fairly heavy hands. He mixes his punches well and is adaptable in a certain way. He’s not top shelf but he is competent and can box or brawl on a decent level. Roman is a guy Stevens must beat if he is to reach the elite status he craves. While Stevens can punch he will always have his limitations and no matter what happens in this fight, he will not become a top player as a middleweight. It’s quite possible that Stevens catches Roman early but we could also see Roman, mixing up his boxing and punching and landing on Stevens. Stevens is prone to walking into shots and getting very frustrated and that could play into Roman’s experienced hands. Win or lose Roman always comes to fight. He has the goods to cause an upset and we give him about almost an even chance of doing so. With a 5-1 take-back on this live pup, it is most certainly worth a wager.
Thabiso Mchunu +350 over Eddie Chambers
When fighters have established themselves in a division and subsequently move down, it often doesn’t work out too well. Orlin Norris was able to cop a title back in the 90’s when he moved down from heavyweight but most of these cases end badly. Look at the glaring example of Chris Byrd. He was a heavyweight title holder and handed Vitali Klitschko his 1st defeat and always had a good chin as a heavyweight. He fought all the monsters and had tremendous success. Byrd moved all the way down to light heavyweight and was dismantled by fringe contender Shawn George. It just doesn’t make sense on paper but moving down when established in a division does bad things to the body – sometimes very bad things.
Eddie Chambers is a small heavyweight but his best weight is about 210-215 and dropping the weight is a detriment. Now Thabiso Mchunu has tabbed Chambers a “skinny, fat guy” and as mean as it sounds, there is some merit to that. That’s because when guys with a bit of extra body fat drop a division, they drop the weight but are still the same guy with a similar body fat ratio.
As for Mchunu as a fighter, he just might prove dangerous. He isn’t that well known but he is a compact southpaw with very heavy hands and a fast bobbing style that suits his dimensions. A few weeks ago another unknown countryman of Mchunu, southpaw Ilunga Makabu, proved to be a tremendous force in the division and we see Mchunu in a similar light. Chambers has been used to fighting ponderous heavyweights and has been successful with a tight defense and fast hands but this time he’ll be matched with up with an explosive fireplug that he’ll be looking down at, not up at in the manner he was against the tall heavyweights he has been used to. Mchuno will be coming in low and fast and he’s the puncher in this fight. I could certainly imagine
Chambers has the potential to box well and to have success but he has a real and different threat in front of him. It’s quite possible the brutal Klitschko KO may have shifted Chambers’ course. He did not look good against Derrick Rossy in a rematch subsequent to the KO loss, (who he easily stopped 5 years ago) and against Tomasz Adamek he fought bravely with an injury but Adamek still forced him backwards throughout the fight. Chambers has fast hands and a tight defense but he has never been a busy fighter and against a forward moving, burly sawed off southpaw like Mchunu, he may well find himself on the defensive. This fight is in no way the mismatch the oddsmakers have it priced at. Chambers will not have an easy time of it and may find himself upset in his 1st cruiserweight outing. Big overlay.
Greg Shaker
LA Angels -1.5 +125
The Toronto Pitcher Rogers has a 10.13 ERA, 2.63 WHIP and .429 batting average against in four relief appearances covering 2 2/3 innings against the Angels. That's not nearly enough of a sample to mean anything but this guy is not sampling very well right now. The fact is, he is just not that good of a starter or reliever and carries a HUGE WHIP into this contest for the year and recently. He has had spurts of goodness but with the way the Angels bats are exploding he could be in for a long night. LAA is scoring over 6.3 times per 9 over their last 10 played, and they are clearly in their best hitting posture facing a righty here at home, plating Over 5 runs Per 9 this year. There's not much more you can say about Jered Weaver except that he is on his game right now. He has allowed 1 run or less the last 6 of 7 pitched and just 1 run PERIOD Over his last 3 starts. He has had great success verses these Jays although he has not faced them in a long time. That though is not a bad thing. It was a tough loss for the Jays last night and their mindset for this one is not likely to be that good. This team has certainly struggled mightily when they have traveled, and especially when they done so out to the west. That's good enough for me to lay these 1.5 runs, and so I will.
Bob Balfe
St. Louis Cardinals +120
Neither team has been hitting the ball well the last few days, but St. Louis broke out of their shell last night with a ton of runs and this is the time of year in which the cream rises to the top in division play. I think the Cardinals are the best team in their division and its just a matter of time before they catch fire and run away with it. Take St. Louis
Teddy Covers
Yankees vs. Padres
Pick: Under
New York is just 5-8 since the All Star break, in fourth place in the AL East (8.5 games back) and in fifth place in the Wild Card standings. The Yanks continue to struggle on offense, producing two runs or less a whopping 12 times in their last 21 ballgames (2-10 in those contests).
Curtis Granderson went hitless in his return to the lineup last night, while Derek Jeter is hitting .200 with one RBI since returning from his second stint on the DL.
The Padres are certainly not offensive juggernauts at the lowest scoring ballpark in the major leagues. They’ve scored two runs or less in 10 of their last 16 games here at Petco while going 9-4 to the Under in their last 13 since the All Star break.
Yanks starter Ivan Nova was nothing short of dominant in July: four starts, 31 innings of work (nearly eight per contest!), with a 2.03 ERA and .188 batting average against. Nova hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start since April. Behind him, New York’s bullpen has been their biggest strength this season.
San Diego starter Tyson Ross outdueled Patrick Corbin last time out, notching a 1-0 win over the D-backs on eight brilliant innings of three hit, shutout ball. Ross has a 1.89 ERA and .219 batting average against at home this year, and the Padres bullpen behind him is rested and ready following Andrew Cashner’s dominating effort last night.
When we throw this awkward start time into the mix – 90 minutes earlier than usual, with shadows becoming a major issue for hitters as a result – the case for the Under is perfectly clear. Expect the pitchers to rule in this pitcher’s duel. Take the Under.