Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday August, 4

Marc Lawrence

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays host the Orioles in Game Two of a three-game series at Tropicana Field where Jeremy Hellickson toes the slab for Tampa Bay. Hellickson enters the fray in sharp KW form with 11 strikeouts and 1 walk in his last three starts knowing he is 3-1 in his four career team starts in this series. With his opponent, Wei-Yin Chen, 0-2 with a 5.95 ERA in his career starts against the Rays, look for the better team and the better arm to emerge a winner here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Hollywood Sports

Great Britain at Australia
Prediction: Over

Great Britain (0-3) may be ranked just #43rd in the world by FIBA but they have played inspired basketball as the host country in these games. Led by the Chicago Bulls' Luol Deng, Great Britain played Russia even for the first half in their opening Group B contest before seeing the Russians pull away in the second half for a 95-75 win. Great Britain did not let that second half effort get them down as they then played Brazil very tough before losing down the stretch by a 67-62 margin. Then Great Britain saw their best effort of these games go to waste by narrowly losing to a heavily favored Spain team by a mere 79-78 score. Despite being winless, this team is gaining confidence -- and they see an opportunity to earn their first win against Australia. While ESPN's Power Rankings place the Aussies' 8th best in these games, they place Great Britain right behind them at #9. Great Britain is averaging 71.7 PPG in these Olympic Games -- while allowing 80.3 PPG which would forecast this game to finish Over the 149.5 or so Total. Led by former St. Mary's star Patty Mills, Australia is 1-2 after earning their first win in Group B by blowing out China by an 81-61 margin. But the Chinese do not appear to be as strong as their #10 FIBA world ranking as they managed only 54 points in their previous game against China. Australia surrendered 75 and 82 points against Brazil and Spain respectively in their first two contests -- and they are averaging 74.0 PPG in these games. In what will likely be another close contest, this game looks destined to at least reach the 150s in its combined score. Take the Over in this one.

Hollywood Sports

Great Britain at South Korea
Prediction: Under

South Korea (1-0-2) entered these Olympic Games with the reputation of having a weak attack on offense and -- after scoring only two goals in their three Group B matches -- they have done little to diffuse those suspicions. The Korean Republic grinded out two 0-0 draws with Mexico and Gabon while earning a 2-1 win over Switzerland in the only match where they were able to get the ball into the net. Now facing a Great Britain team that enjoys the home crowd advantage -- look for South Korea to attempt to slow the pace to a crawl while taking very few chances. South Korea's recipe for success is to see this contest enter the extra periods -- or even a shootout -- where they can then steal the victory against a British team that is more talented on paper. Great Britain (2-0-1) has only allowed two goals themselves in these Olympic Games. However, besides their 3-1 win against a United Arab Emirates team playing in their first Olympic Games in soccer, Great Britain managed only one goal in their other two matches against Uruguay and Senegal. This match has 1-0 or 0-0 after 90 minutes of play written all over it. Take the Under.

Jim Feist

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Miami Marlins

Mark Buehrle is a veteran who throws strikes and that's a big plus in a big park like Washington, a team he is 2-0 against. Washington has a below average offense and the Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Miami likes to run, attack on the base paths under new manager Ozzie Guillen, which is a big plus in a huge park like in Washington. The Marlins are 13-4 in the last 17 meetings in Washington and the Nationals are 2-5 in Ryan Zimmermann's last 7 starts against the Marlins. Play the Marlins.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Francisco Giants

The Giants fit a nice system that has won 12 of 16 times and Plays on road favorites with a total of 10 or higher that are off a road favored win by 5 or more runs, while scoring 10 or more runs, with no errors, vs an opponent off a home dog loss that scored 4 or less runs. The Giants have M. Bumgarner going and he has dominated the Rockies allowing just one run in 21+ innings against them. Colorado send J. Francis to the mound and he has an elevated 6.17 home era. With Colorado just 3-14 on Saturday and having lost 20 of 29 vs Left handers, we will back the Giants tonight.

Ben Burns

Texas vs. Kansas City
Pick: Under

Yesterday's series opener stayed below the total, a 5-3 win for the Rangers. I feel this one has a solid chance of doing the same.

Feldman has suddenly caught fire. Two games ago, he limited Boston to one run through seven innings. Last time out, he was even better, blanking the White Sox for eight innings, en route to a 2-0 victory. Feldman didn't walk a single batter in either of those two games, striking out 10.

Smith is also off back-to-back quality starts. Over that 2-game stretch, he's allowed four runs in 13 innings. That's good for a 2.77 ERA. He'll have the advantage of starting against Texas for the first time.

Feldman has a 2.97 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in five starts vs. KC. The last two of those both stayed below the total, finishing with scores of 5-2 and 3-1. Consider the Under 10.

Scott Spreitzer

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The week began on a serious high note with the Angels taking the first two games of a 4-game set in Texas. But in losing the last two games of that series, the Halos' bullpen took its share of hits. Needless to say, the Angels definitely missed injured reliever Scott Downs as a set-up man and even filling in for Ernesto Frieri as a closer when the former Padre needs a night off. There's been nothing wrong with the Halo bats, but they're in a tough spot again tonight - where they'll likely have to score a lot of runs to "keep up" once again. Ervin Santana gets another start - but I'm not buying just because of one "ok" start against Texas last time out. Santana didn't worry about conserving energy. He attacked the Texas hitters and finished the game having allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings. The problem for Santana is that right now, he looks like he has to go "all-out" from the opening pitch to experience success. And unfortunately, the Angel pen is looking shaky of late and need a starter to go deep into a game or two. I expect the White Sox to plate their share of runs, whether it's early against Santana or later against the Angel pen. Meanwhile, the Sox will counter with Gavin Floyd who has allowed only 7 earned runs in his last 6 starts, spanning 39 innings of work. I'm betting the Angels will drop their 4th straight. I'm recommending the White Sox on Saturday.

Ross Benjamin

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

The White Sox starter Gavin Floyd has been very tough over his last 6 starts posting a stellar 1.63 ERA. The Angels starter Ervin Santana is 1-4 in his last 5 team starts with a monster 11.37 ERA and a 2.21 WHIP.

Any home favorite of -150 or less with a starting pitcher who walked 5 or more in his previous start, and they're facing a starting pitcher with an ERA of 7.50 or greater over his last 3 starts is 66-26 (71.7%) since the start of the 1997 season. Play on the Chicago White Sox.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

James McDonald has faded significantly of late, and while Mike Leake is hardly reliable, this Cincinnati team is money in the bank right now. I'll roll with the Reds.

Bryan Leonard

Mariners / Yankees Under 8

The best pitching matchup of the day will be at Yankee Stadium between Felix Hernandez and Hiroki Kuroda. Hernandez has been good pretty much all season, but he's been especially good since the All-Star break with a 1.44 ERA in four starts. Hernandez has, understandably, pitched worse on the road than in friendly Safeco Field, but his road ERA of 3.48 is still very respectable. He's given up just 21 runs in his last 11 starts. In 13 career starts against the Yankees, he's 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA. His advanced metric stats like FIP and xFIP are certainly within range of his ERA and that points to Hernandez pitching the way he should be.

Kuroda has been incredible in day games this season, not allowing a single run, earned or unearned, in 30 daytime innings. He's allowed just 16 hits in those four games. Kuroda has loved pitched at Yankee Stadium with a 2.63 ERA and .222 opposing batting average, compared to a road ERA of 4.23. One of the big keys to Kuroda's success has been holding opponents to a .217 batting average with men on base. Like Hernandez, Kuroda has been good since the All-Star break with a 2.45 ERA over four starts.

This total will be inflated based on Yankee Stadium's hitter-friendly dimensions, but these two pitchers are good no matter what ballpark they're in and both are throwing the ball well right now.

Bryan Leonard

Diamondbacks +132

The Diamondbacks send Joe Saunders to the mound against Roy Halladay and the Phillies on Saturday night in Philly. Joe Saunders has been a road warrior this season, with a 2.44 ERA away from the desert. Part of the reason for Saunders's success this season is a higher K/9 rate than ever before while he has lowered his BB/9. Pitching ahead in the count has allowed Saunders to lower his HR/FB% and give up fewer line drives. The D-Backs are playing spirited ball right now, completing a three-game sweep of the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine before an off day and a flight to the East Coast. They've won five of their last six and gotten back into the NL West hunt. With the exception of getting slowed down by knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, they're scoring six runs per game in their last six games.

Roy Halladay has really struggled this season. Along with a DL stint, Halladay is dealing with his lowest K/9 and highest BB/9 in the last five years. Six consecutive years of throwing over 3,000 regular season pitches plus playoff work may be taking a toll on the workhorse right hander. His average fastball velocity is the lowest in his career, the first time it's been below 91 mph. He's responded by throwing more breaking balls and has thrown just 42% of his pitches in the strike zone, by far a career low. That's a good sign for the Diamondbacks who are tied for second in the NL with the most walks. The Phillies are just 12-22 against left handed starters this season.

Bryan Leonard

Marlins +162

Mark Buehrle heads to the mound for the Marlins to take on the hottest pitcher in baseball, Jordan Zimmermann. Buehrle's last win came against the Nationals on July 14, going seven innings and allowing just one run on six hits with seven punchouts. The two teams played a doubleheader on Friday night and that gives Buehrle an advantage. Jordan Zimmermann had this start pushed back a day due to shoulder inflammation. Zimmermann has been injured quite a bit in his young career, with last season's 161 IP being a career high. Last year, in eight starts after the All-Star break, Zimmermann posted a 4.47 ERA, after posting a 0.85 ERA in June. Now, he's dealing with arm trouble? That's not a good sign for a pitcher who has already overachieved this season. Zimmermann is stranding 83.6% of baserunners, an unsustainable number.

Now in the dog days of summer, Zimmermann's throwing a lot of pitches and pitching a lot of big games for the Nationals. With a 2.28 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and 3.60 xFIP, Zimmermann was already due for regression without dealing with arm troubles.

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore +127 over TAMPA BAY

The Rays remain a big risk as the favorite because of an offense that ranks near or at the bottom of every key offensive category. Nothing changed in In July, as they ranked 14th (OPS) out of 15 in the AL.

With Jeremy Hellickson going, that risk increases greatly. We’ve pointed out on several occasions that Hellickson was a candidate for regression this season after his 2.95 ERA rookie campaign from 2011 came with poor skills. While his surface stats (3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) have regressed a bit, his unchanged skills from 2011 suggest that they have even more downside. His xERA is 4.32. His strikeout rate, walk rate (40BB/72 K in 111 IP) and groundball/fly-ball profile (39%/41%) are all below average. There’s even more good news. Hellickson’s skills erode even more against lefthanders and the Orioles are loaded with left-handed bats. Hellickson is a prime sell-high candidate because he’s simply not that good.

The Rays have won just five of 14 games at home against lefties and will face one here in Wei-Yin Chen. Chen notched a career-high 12 strikeouts over 5.2 innings Sunday as Baltimore shut down a red-hot Oakland club. He now has 105 k’s in 128 innings and has allowed three runs or less in five of his past six starts. He appears to be getting more and more comfortable in his new surroundings and has showed some very positive signs over the last two months. Other than home-field, nothing else favors the Rays.

SPORTS WAGERS

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua has been one of the top light heavyweights in the world for much of the past 10 years and is a former Pride and UFC champion. His aggressive striking style has won him 20 fights with 17 ko's and a legion of loyal fans along the way. Unfortunately, injuries have taken their toll on Rua and have led to inconsistency; looking like a terror in one fight only to look like a shadow of himself in the next. He is coming off a brutal five-round decision loss to Dan Henderson this past November where both fighters inflicted an incredible amount of punishment on each other. This does not bode well for Rua who already was showing the wear and tear of his 26-fight career.

Brandon "the Truth" Vera entered the UFC six years ago as a heavyweight and tore through the opposition with four straight finishes and looking like he had championship potential. After a one year layoff caused by a contract dispute, he hasn't looked the same and has had mixed results going 4-5 with a no contest in which he was thoroughly beaten only to have the loss overturned by his opponent's failed drug trust. The failed drug test actually saved his UFC career, as he was cut by the promotion for the loss but had to be brought back due to the language in his contract. Now he finds himself the winner of the proverbial golden ticket, getting the main event slot of a Fox broadcast against a high profile opponent where one good performance can get him a title shot.

There are no doubts about Brandon's physical abilities. His problems seem to be mental, as he just hasn't been able to put it all together for some time. This looks like a good spot for an upset. Shogun's best days are behind him and he is not a fighter that should be carrying such a high price tag anymore. "The Truth" is a well-rounded mixed martial artist and a win here could make the last few years seem like a bad memory. He shouldn't have any problems getting motivated. On the other hand, Vera isn't the big name opponent that Shogun is accustomed to taking on, which means Shogun may be in for a bit of a letdown coming off the very high profile Dan Henderson fight that was called the fight of the year and even the best MMA fight in history by some pundits. A Vera win wouldn't be as big a shocker as his +292 line would indicate.