Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -125
I'm fading the Angels' Ervin Santana, who has a 5.97 ERA on the season, a 6.83 ERA on the road and a 7.81 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Angels are just 6-18 in Santana's last 24 starts, 4-9 in his last 13 road starts and 2-10 in his last 12 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 home games, and they'll have an excellent opportunity to continue their winning ways at home this evening.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates +125
The Reds have been rolling, but I like Pittsburgh's chances today with McDonald on the mound. He's 10-5 with a 3.37 ERA in 21 starts. He's also 4-1 with an ERA of 2.53 in 7 starts against the Reds. He's won both of his starts against the Reds this season in dominant fashion, holding them to just 1 run in 14 1-3 innings of work.
Cincy's Leake is just 4-7 with an ERA of 4.44 in 20 starts. He's 1-4 with a 6.03 in 11 home starts and 1-3 with a 4.21 ERA in 8 career starts against Pittsburgh. He's lost both of his starts against Pittsburgh this season, giving up 7 runs in 14 innings.
The Pirates lost yesterday, but they're still 6-2 in their last 8 in Cincinnati. Take Pittsburgh.
Jeff Alexander
Philadelphia Phillies -140
The Phillies are showing value at this price with ace Roy Halladay on the hill. They are 44-20 in Halladay's last 64 starts and 44-17 in his last 61 starts as a favorite. Getting an extra days' rest figures to bode well for Halladay as he is 20-6 on the money line in his last 26 starts on 5 days' rest. The Diamondbacks, on the other hands, are 0-4 in Saunders' last 4 road starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a road underdog. We'll take Philly on the money line.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
LA DODGERS -1.5 (-130) over Chicago: The Dodgers have been made the biggest favorite of the year tonight and I feel with good reason. The Cubs are the second worst road team in the league at 16-37 and they have gone just 9-28 vs the RL in those 37 losses, including just 1-12 in their last 13 road losses. This is a bad team away from home. Last night they had perhaps their best pitcher on the mound in Jeff S. and he struggled vs a struggling LA offense. Tonight the Cubs go with Chris Volstad and he has been downright horrible this year. Chris has just 9 starts on the year and he is 0-7 with a 7.94 ERA in those starts. On the road he is 0-3 with a 7.66 ERA and the Cubs have been outscored by 2 runs or more in each of his road starts. At night he has been even worse with an 0-2 mark and an 8.83 ERA and a 2.08 WHIP, while the Cubs have been outscored by 3 rpg in his night starts. Chris faced LA once this year and allowed 5 ER's in 5 innings in that start. The Dodgers are not a great hitting team, but they will get better with the Addition of Victorino and Ramirez. Hanley has never faced Chris, but Victorino is 9 for 32 with 2 HR's off of him. as a team the Dodgers are hitting .265 with 3 HR's off of Chris and even Clayton has gone 1-2 off of him in his career. The Cubs average just 3.4 rpg on the road and they hit just .209 and score 2.8 rpg off of lefties away from home. Clayton is 5-3 at home with a 2.36 ERA and he is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in 3 career starts vs the Cubs. My hope is that LA doesn't rest starters here, but I don't think they will. This team needs some confidence and a blowout win would aid in that great for them. LA by at least 4 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY (11-1 Last 11)
TAMPA BAY -135 over Baltimore: The Rays are a hot team again. After taking 2 of three at the Angles and then 2 of three at a very hot Oakland team, they came home last night and beat a struggling Orioles team 2-0. The Orioles have had problems scoring runs in this series of late as they have averaged just 2.29 rpg in the last 7 played, while being held to less than 2 runs in 4 of those games. Their task won't get much easier tonight vs Jeremy Hellickson and this Rays staff. The Rays as a team have allowed just 5 total runs in their last 6 games. In those 6 games they have thrown 4 shutouts including 2 in a row at the Angels, and we have all seen what that offense has been capable of, of late. Jeremy was part of one of those LA shutouts as he allowed just 2 hits in 6 innings vs the powerful Halos in his last start. He is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and an 0.60 WHIP in his last 3 starts, plus he is 3-1 in his team starts with an 0.88 ERA in his 4 career starts here vs the O's and he hasn't allowed more than 1 ER in any of those starts. While the O's have had problems scoring in this series the Rays really haven't as they have scored 4.6 rpg vs O's pitching on the year. The Rays as a team had such good pitch earlier in the year, but it's starting to break down as they have allowed a whopping 5.9 rpg in their last 10 games. Wei-Yin Chen has been solid of late with a 2-1 mark and a 2.79 ERA, but he is just 4-3 with a 4.27 ERA on the road and in 2 starts vs the Rays this year he is 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA. I expect Tampa to keep on winning vs an O's team that just can't score off of them. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008 the Rays are 24-5 at home off a win in which they scored 3 runs or less and did not hit 3 HR's in the game.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (21-3 RUN) (30-11 (+16.45 UNITS)
Since 2006 the Cardinals are 21-3 as a home favorite of 140 or more if they are off a walk-off loss in their starters last start. This play has gone 17-7 vs the RL, including 10-3 in the last 13. This play is 3-0 this year and thay have outscored all 3 opponents by 3 runs. Play on St Louis -1.5 (-105) over Milwaukee
Since 2004 Oakland is 17-4 as a home favorite if their starter allowed 5 or fewer runs in his last start and they won by 1 run. Interesting to note is that they have gone 17-4 vs the RL in this spot as well, outscoring their opponents by 4 rpg. I won't play with the RL here so, Play on Oakland -157 over Toronto
More later
Vegas Experts
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals will be feeling pretty good about their chances when they send Jordan Zimmermann (8-6, 2.28 ERA) to the mound on Saturday to take on Marlins and Mark Buehrle (9-10, 3.60 ERA). Zimmermann in great form is undefeated in seven (6-1 TSR) posting a sparkling 4.5 SWR, 0.955 WHIP and 17.43 Batter-Out-Rating/9 over the seven game span. On the flip side, Buehrle has hit a wall last three going 0-2 posting a dreadful 0.89 SWR, 1.986 WHIP and 7.43 BOR/9. Washington gets the nod but with the hefty price (>$1.70) we recommend a runline (1.5 +$1.30). Home favorites like Washington (>$1.70) with a pitcher that gets hitters out (BOR >15) have won at a 72.1% clip this season (88-34) outscoring the visitor 5.1 to 2.8
Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Play: Cincinnati
Pittsburgh's James McDonald was at one point sitting with a 2.19 ERA which for his stuff, simply could not be maintained. He may be going through a bit of a dead arm period with four consecutive rough outings (20.2 IP, 19 BB, 6 HR, 8.71 ERA). The tell-tale sign something isn’t right is the walks. Normally a strike thrower, McDonald has had real difficulty with his command and as a result, cannot be trusted. Mike Leake's season started out rough as his ERA sat 5.47 at the end of May. But he turned the corner and over his last 11 outings shows a 3.71 ERA. He's been a little shaky of late (see: 5 ERs in 1.2 IP vs. San Diego) but this is a good opportunity for a bounce back effort – Leake has a solid track record vs. the Pirates (8 starts, 3.16 ERA). Starting pitcher in better form, the stronger offense, and reasonable price put us on the Reds.
Ross King
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals -1.5
Wainwright is 0-2 versus Milwaukee this year but over his last 10 starts against them he has an e.r.a of 1.58.St.Louis is 3-1 at home versus Milwaukee at home this year.When the road total is between 9-9.5 Milwaukee is 2-7 currently and 19-40 the last 3 seasons.St.Louis is 4-0 currently as a home favorite of -200 to -225 and 14-5 the last 3 seasons.Take St.Louis -1.5 on the runline over Milwaukee who has lost 7 straight on the road while St.Louis looks for their 5th consecutive win at home where they are 13-3 since July.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ Colorado
Play: San Francisco -147
The San Francisco Giants take on the Rockies in Colorado in Game two of this three games series. Colorado is 2-10 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. Colorado is allowing 5.8 runs per game overall this year, 6.6 runs per game at home this season, 8.1 runs per game their past seven games overall and 5.8 runs per game at night this year. Madison Bumgarner is 11-6 with a 3.09 ERA overall this year and has a 2.70 ERA his last 3 starts. Jeff Francis is 3-3 with a 5.43 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 6.17 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA his last 3 starts. Bumgarner has a 2.10 ERA overall in his eight starts vs Colorado in his career. San Francisco is 4-0 last 4 road games vs a left handed starter. San Francisco is 10-1 last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Giants are 24-6 last 30 games when Bumgarner is a favorite. Colorado is 17-40 last 57 games as an underdog. Colorado is 8-27 last 35 games as a home underdog. San Francisco is 7-1 last 8 meetings in Colorado and they have won 21 out of the last 29 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Scott Delaney
Now on a 3-1 run with my free picks since July 31, and tonight I'm looking to extend that win streak by playing the visiting Toronto Blue Jays, who are in Oakland for a weekend series with the Athletics. As well as the A's have been playing, hard-hitting Toronto, who rank second in the league with 149 home runs and fifth in the bigs with 513 plated runs, may have put a scare into them last night with a ninth-inning home run to tie the game at 4 apiece.
Though the A's won 5-4 in 15 innings, this could be the right spot to go against them in a letdown situation. But even further, I want you listing the scheduled starters - Toronto's Ricky Romero and Oakland's A.J. Griffin - as the two just met on July 25, when the A's won 16-0.
That's not a typo. Oakland, 16-0.
It was Romero's worst outing of the year, and arguably of his career, as he lasted just 1-1/3 innings after giving up eight earned runs on just four hits. Problem was he walked six batters. And yes, he has now lost seven consecutive starts, but he'll have revenge on the brain.
I'm taking a shot here with the underdog guys, and I want you listing both pitchers.
3♦ TORONTO
Chuck O'Brien
How bad have the Cleveland Indians gotten? This team arrived in Motown after being swept in Kansas City, by the American League Central cellar-dwelling Royals.
It just a little more than a week ago the Tigers and Indians met, and Cleveland was battling for to stay alive and keep its postseason hopes alive, while Detroit was one of the hottest teams in baseball. Now they're in Detroit mired in a seven-game losing streak, they're 8-1/2 games out of first place and the Tigers, well, they're still roaring on the heels of the frontrunning Chicago White Sox.
I know they've lost six of their last 10 games, but that was after winning 13 of their previous 15, and they're not entirely out of it. What they need is a momentum-building series to get back on track.
Enter the Tribe. We saw the Tigers name it last night in the series-opener, and that was just what Detroit needed. Now the onslaught continues.
The Indians are handing the ball to right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 8-10 with a 5.08 ERA this season. Lifetime he is 4-5 with a 4.81 ERA against the Tigers. I want you listing him, along with Detroit starter Doug Fister, as they're involved in a pitching rematch from back on July 24, when the Indians - and Jimenez - won, 3-2.
Fister is in after recording his fourth straight quality start, a dominant effort against the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays. During that stretch, the right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA, recording 31 strikeouts to just five walks. He's also lowered his ERA to 3.77 in the process.
Again, list the pitchers in this one and play the home team on the run line.
3♦ DETROIT -1.5
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Minnesota Twins over Boston.
After they took two of three from the Yankees, it appeared the Red Sox might be poised to start a little run to get back in contention in the AL East. Instead they have dropped the first two to lowly Minnesota and find themselves a game under .500 again.
Pitiful.
With more and more pressure mounting on them, it's not going to get any easier against a pitcher who seems to be getting better with each start.
The Twins (46-60) shut out the Red Sox on Thursday, then rallied from four down to earn a 6-5 victory in 10 innings last night. Clay Buchholz (9-3, 4.75 ERA) not only has the pressure of trying to keep Boston afloat in the AL Wild Card race, but also trying to avoid losing three straight at home to the Twins in a series for the first time since 1994. Ouch.
Cole De Vries (2-2, 3.98), on the other hand, has no pressure while pitching for a team with 46 wins on the year. Maybe that's why he's been pitching so well on the road despite not having the record to show it. I realize he's winless in his last five starts, but his ERA over those last five games is just 3.18.
Let's also remember he pitches better on the road and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs away from Minnesota in any of his starts this year. Like I said... no pressure.
Free play of the day on the Minnesota Twins over Boston at Fenway.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Seattle-New York contest.
As they say in the Bronx; "you lookin' for offense? fuhgeddabout it!" Not with Felix Hernandez and Hiroki Kuroda making the start.
When the teams met last week in Seattle, Kuroda was on the winning end of a 4-1 Yankees final - and Under, while Hernandez was on the winning end of a 4-2 Seattle final - also an Under.
Series meetings show the last 5 and 7 of the last 8 meetings between the teams having played Under (a push last night), and with this being a day game after a night game, you can expect some bench players to see starting action this afternoon making Hernandez and Kuroda's jobs just a little easier.
Hernandez has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts, while Kuroda has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 3 starts, and 5 of his last 7 overall.
Plenty of nothing this afternoon as King Felix and Mr. Kuroda hold court and mow down the hitters.
M's-Yanks Under the total.
4♦ SEATTLE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free pick run is at 29-15 after scoring with the Chicago White Sox against the Angels of Anaheim. Tonight we're backing the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a run line play against the visiting Chicago Cubs.
Talk about a bad situation, I don't see how the Cubbies stand a chance tonight, having lost three straight, being on the road against a pissed-off Dodgers team that is still looking to make good after being swept in Phoenix, by the Diamondbacks earlier this week and finally, having to face Los Angeles-ace Clayton Kershaw.
This is simply an all-around bad situation for the Cubs.
Los Angeles' southpaw looked excellent in his three July home starts, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA while striking out 22 in 21 innings. Couple that with his success against the Cubs in three career meetings - 2-1 record with a 1.71 ERA - and one might believe the Dodgers' No. 1 hurler could do something really special here.
Take the Dodgers here, and lay the run line, as Kershaw will be much better than Chicago right-hander Chris Volstad.
1♦ LOS ANGELES
Matt Rivers
Your Saturday free play is to look for Ubaldo Jimenez and Doug Fister to once again hook-up in a pitcher's duel Under when the Indians and Tigers take to the field.
These two just went at it on July 24th, Jimenez working six scoreless innings on seven hits, while Fister allowed just three runs in his seven innings pitched, as the game ended in a 3-2 final and an Under.
The Under has been the play each of the last three times Jimenez has toed the rubber, and six of his last eight starts overall, while the Under has gone 0-2-1 the last three times Fister has trotted to the mound.
Series meetings show the Under on a 7-3-1 run the last 11 times these teams have played one another. Last night was a rare series Over, as the Tigers were able to plate 10 runs, but I don't see that trend continuing tonight at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.
Tribe and the Motown Cats to hold low on Saturday.
2♦ CLEVELAND-DETROIT UNDER
Dom Chambers
The free selection today is the Boston Red Sox on the run line to beat the Minnesota Twins.
The Red Sox lost in extra innings to the Twins on Friday. They get their revenge today.
Clay Buchholz starts for the Red Sox and he has been a machine since getting off the disabled list. In his last three starts, his ERA is 1.57 with an ERA of 0.913. He has given up only four earned runs in 23 innings.
For the Twins Cole De Vries starts, and his numbers are nice, but not as good as Buchholz. In his last three starts, he does not have a decision, but his ERA is 3.18. He has given up eight runs in 17 innings. The one thing about De Vries is he either goes five or six innings. The Red Sox will get into the Twins’ bullpen. Minnesota used six pitchers in the extra-inning game, so their bullpen may be a bit taxed going into this game.
Buchholz has gone into the eighth inning consistently.
The pitching edge is with the Red Sox.
Take Boston on the run line.
3♦ RED SOX -1.5