Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Minnesota Twins over Boston.
After they took two of three from the Yankees, it appeared the Red Sox might be poised to start a little run to get back in contention in the AL East. Instead they have dropped the first two to lowly Minnesota and find themselves a game under .500 again.
Pitiful.
With more and more pressure mounting on them, it's not going to get any easier against a pitcher who seems to be getting better with each start.
The Twins (46-60) shut out the Red Sox on Thursday, then rallied from four down to earn a 6-5 victory in 10 innings last night. Clay Buchholz (9-3, 4.75 ERA) not only has the pressure of trying to keep Boston afloat in the AL Wild Card race, but also trying to avoid losing three straight at home to the Twins in a series for the first time since 1994. Ouch.
Cole De Vries (2-2, 3.98), on the other hand, has no pressure while pitching for a team with 46 wins on the year. Maybe that's why he's been pitching so well on the road despite not having the record to show it. I realize he's winless in his last five starts, but his ERA over those last five games is just 3.18.
Let's also remember he pitches better on the road and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs away from Minnesota in any of his starts this year. Like I said... no pressure.
Free play of the day on the Minnesota Twins over Boston at Fenway.
2♦ MINNESOTA
WUNDERDOG
Miami at Washington
Pick: Miami +160
I was on Maimi as a dog last night, and I'm doing the same today. The Washington Nationals continue with a slim two-game lead over Atlanta in the competitive National League East. Jordan Zimmerman has emerged as their top starter and he has won six of his last seven starts on the season. The Marlins go with crafty veteran Mark Buehrle who has pitched well again with a 3.60 ERA on the season. The Nationals, however, have failed in four of their last five attempts when a team they are facing scored 5 runs or more in their previous game. Behind Buehrle, the Marlins have been on the other side of that same stat, as they are 7-1 when Buehrle takes the ball in a game following one in which his team plated 5 or more runs. The Marlins also own a 58-26 mark in their last 84 vs. Washington. Play on Miami.
DAVID BANKS
Pirates / Reds Over 9
The top two teams in the National League Central meet this weekend, and in the middle game Saturday, it will be James McDonald and his Pittsburgh Pirates (60-44) taking on Mike Leake and the Cincinnati Reds (64-41) at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. The first place Reds hold a 3-game lead over the second place Pirates entering the series opener on Friday with the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals now eight games back in third. You can catch the action nationally on Saturday at 7:10 ET on MLB Network.
The Pirates are winning with pitching as they rank fifth in the National League with a team ERA of 3.61, while the offense ranks just 13th out of 16 teams with a .245 batting average. McDonald had been a huge contributor to that great pitching and was having a break-out year, but perhaps his 130.2 innings pitched so far with two months left in the season are getting to him after he worked a career high of 171 innings last year. McDonald still has great overall numbers as he is 10-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 115 strikeouts, but he certainly looks to have a dead arm right now. McDonald allowed more than three runs just once in his first 17 starts this year, and he has now done so in four straight outings since, allowing a total of 20 earned runs on 28 hits and 19 walks against 15 strikeouts in those four efforts, covering 20.2 innings. This was after having 100 strikeouts vs. 31 walks in his first 17 outings. McDonald has sparkled in his two starts vs. Cincinnati this year, going 2-0 while permitting just one run and 14 baserunners in 14.1 innings with 12 strikeouts, but that was when he was running well and it remains questionable if he can suddenly regain that form.
Now the Reds have the reputation of being a great offensive team and they certainly play in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the National League. So it may surprise you to learn that Cincinnati is too winning with pitching, in fact ranking second in the National League with a 3.38 team ERA while surprisingly ranking only ninth with a .254 batting average, although the Reds make up for that by ranking second with 121 home runs. Leake, however, has been a weak link in an otherwise fine pitching staff, as he is only 4-7 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He is coming off of a rough outing vs. the San Diego Padres where he lasted only 1.2 innings, surrendering five earned runs on five hits and three walks, and he has not handled pitching in this hitter's paradise well, going 1-4 with a woeful 6.04 ERA and 1.54 WHIP at home! Leake was just mildly mediocre the last time he faced the Pirates, allowing four earned runs on seven hits in seven innings right here in this ballpark on June 7th in a 5-4 loss.
Although the Pirates have had weak-hitting teams throughout Leake's entire Major League career, that last loss makes the Reds as a team just 2-6 the last eight times that Leake has started against Pittsburgh. Also the Pirates are 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings here in the Queen City, pending Friday's result.
John Ryan
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
5* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers set to start at 9:10 PM ET. That was not a misprint and in fact, if you play dogs consistently that are +250 or higher you stand a high probability of making money over the course of the season. The Dodgers are very much in the thick of the playoff race trailing the San Francisco Giants by just ? game entering today?s action. However, they are four games back with three teams ahead of them in the NL wild card race.
The Cubs have the third worst record in the NL at 43-61 and are 16 ? games behind in just the wild card race. However, MLB teams are far more equal and competitive than in nearly every sport. You may, once in a while see lines in MLB approach -300 levels, but in the NFL and CFB, by way of example, money lines can get easily reach double digits. So, if you saw the Philadelphia Eagles favored by 6 points would you think that is a lock for them to win the game? Certainly not everytime, but that is what a +250 dog looks like in the NFL.
Point is to not fall prey to taking these heavy favorites in MLB thinking and presuming they are destined for easy wins. They will certainly win more games than they lose, but given the very high inflated lines, over time you will lose a considerable amount if you choose to bet big-time favorites.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-22 for just 57% winners, but has made an incredible 45.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. The average play for this system has been a +232 dog play. Play on all dogs with a money line of +200 or more and is a struggling NL hitting team batting .250 or less and batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games, and is now facing a team with a good bullpen posting an ERA 3.75 or less on the season.
Here is a second system that has gone 29-21 for 58% winners and has made 31.1 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a struggling hitting team batting .250 or less with a cold starting pitcher sporting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last five starts and is now facing a top level starting pitcher posting an ERA of 3.10 or less and a WHIP of 1.250 or less on the season. The average play of this system has been a solid +180 dog play.
Between these two system alone, you can readily see the factors supporting the DOG on this play and that fact that you must be able to identify dogs that win on a consistent basis. With my work and research, systems only serve to reinforce the graded play from the simulator and my fundamental research on the game situation.
Michael Alexander
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
PITTSBURGH is 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game
CINCINNATI is 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter
CINCINNATI is 11-4 in Leakes last 15 starts with 4 days of rest
Jesse Schule
Houston vs. Atlanta
Pick: Under
The Astros road record is an appalling 10-45, by far the worst in the major leagues. It isn't likely to get any better after tonight's game as Houston is taking on Atlanta in the second game of a three game series. The Braves took the first game last night by a score of 4-1 with Tim Hudson picking up his eleventh win of the year.
Atlanta will send Paul Maholm to the mound tonight, making his debut here for the Braves after coming over in a trade with the Cubs on deadline day. Maholm was 9-6 with a 3.74 ERA in 20 appearances for the Cubbies this year. He has been red hot lately, going 5-0 in his last seven starts, and holding opponents to one run or less in all of those games.
Maholm has owned the Astros in his career, with a record of 8-1 with a 1.33 ERA over his last 10 home starts against Houston.
Lucas Harrell will get the call for Houston, coming off a win his last time out. Harrell (8-7, 4.03 ERA) is the only Astros starter to have recorded a victory since the All Star break, but he's going to be hard pressed to get another win here in this one. His home and away numbers are very Jekyll and Hyde, going 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA at home, but 2-6 with a 5.71 ERA away from Minute Maid Park. That being said, he has only allowed five runs in his last four starts, and two of those were on the road.
The Astros offense isn't going to scare anyone, and Maholm will likely have a successful debut, however this could turn into a tight low scoring ball game, as both these pitchers have been tough in recent starts.
Joseph D'Amico
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's
Oakland has taken 15 of 20 overall since the All-Star break to raise their WC lead to 1 1/2 , not to mention being just 4 1/2 GB Texas in the AL West. The A's lead the season series over the Blue Jays, 5-2, include victories in both games of this current series. Overall, Oaktown has won 6 of their L10, combining for a whopping 49 runs scored just in the six victories. AJ Griffin gets the nod here. The RH is 3-0 with a 2.51 ERA on the season. He faced Toronto back in July, throwing 6 scoreless innings to earn the win. Toronto has lost 6 in a row, being outscored, 29-12. They are already without injured Bautista, Arencibia, and Lind. And it looks like they may lose Lawrie and Rasmus here as both got banged up in LN's contest and are listed as questionable today. The Blue Jays have Ricky Romero throwing. The LH is 8-8 with an ERA of 5.69 this season, 3-5 away from home, and dropping his L3 starts with a 11.48 ERA. Romero was on the losing end of a 16-0 drubbing by Oakland, pitching 7.1 innings and possessing a 12.22 ERA. The Blue Jays are 2-5 their L7 games played at the A's, 16-35 their L51 games played as a road 'dog, and 0-7 in Romero's L7 overall starts. The A's are 15-5 their L20 games played following a win, 21-7 their L28 games played at home, and 5-0 in Griffins L5 overall starts. Take Oakland.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies -139
We're actually getting Roy Halladay at a discount today. I'll take advantage by backing them as a favorite over the Arizona Diamondbacks. You'll rarely get Halladay at this price.
He remains one of the best starters in the game despite his 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in 14 starts this year. He's way underrated right now, and I'll back him at this price.
The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in Saunders' last 4 road starts. Arizona is 0-7 in Saunders' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Saunders' last 5 starts as a road underdog. Bet the Phillies Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +104 over Milwaukee
The Brewers had Cardinals pitcher Joe Kelly on the ropes last night with nine hits and two walks in the first four innings, yet only managed to score three runs when they should have had at least twice that. Once again it was an ugly display that included poor execution and awful pitching by both the starter and pen. Any desire this team has shown at home is completely gone on the road. Milwaukee has now lost 31 of 49 road games while batting .232 in the process.
Mark Rogers makes his second start since replacing Zack Greinke in the rotation. Rogers has battled through two major shoulder surgeries. He didn’t make the team out of spring training and didn’t pitch well enough at Nashville to be called up earlier. He has chronic control issues (49 walks in 92 innings at Triple-A Nashville) to go along with some very average numbers. In 18 starts with Nashville, Rogers is 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA and these aren’t minor league hitters he’ll be facing.
St. Louis is warming up again. They’ve won 10 of 14 and not many starters have been as good as Adam Wainwright over the past two or three months. His xERA and ERA finally met up in July (2.76), as his strand rate returned to normal levels (74% strand % in July, vs. 60% in June). Wainwright has 123 K’s in 129 innings with just 33 walks issued for one of the best ratios in the league. His groundball rate of 53% is also elite. His 8-10 record and 4.24 ERA do not coincide with his outstanding skills, thus making him one of the most undervalued pitchers in the game.