Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, August 7,2010

Hollywood Sports
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Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Prediction: Hamilton Tiger-Cats
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While the Tiger-Cats (1-4) lost by a 37-24 score to a strong Saskatchewan team last week, they take encouragement from the fact that they actually outgained the Roughriders by 120 total yards. 12 penalties for 97 yards as well as three turnovers did in Hamilton in this game as mistakes made the difference for this young team. But the Tiger-Cats are optimistic about the future of their franchise as a whole host of second-year players continue to mature. They have a legitimate QB in Kevin Glenn who was 31-45 for 425 yards against Saskatchewan and leads an offense that is now 3rd in the CFL in passing yards. And slot back Arland Bruce III tied a CFL record with his 16 receptions last week for 272 yards and two TDs. This team is on the rise with this talent at the skill positions. Now they face a mediocre Winnipeg (2-3) team that comes off a 23-20 loss in Calgary. The Blue Bombers are 0-2 on the road with a -10 net point differential. They are totaling only 308 yards per game on the road while scoring only 13.5 PPG in those contests. To make matters worse, the Blue Bombers are riddled with injuries right now including their starting QB Buck Pierce who is listed as questionable for this game. And while Winnipeg currently owns the CFL's top defensive unit regarding total yards per game allowed (361.2 YPG), this defense has not been as stout on the road as they are allowing their opponents to score 25.5 PPG on 437.5 total YPG. Take the upstart Hamilton Tiger-Cats Saturday night.

Marc Lawrence
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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Diamondbacks and Padres resume their three-game series when Rodrigo Lopez opposes Clayton Richard Saturday evening in Arizona. This is actually a rematch from three weeks ago when Richard bested Lopez, 8-5, in San Diego. Richard enters tonight's fray off a phony 'inside-out' win when he lasted 5.3 innings while allowing 13 batters to reach base in a 10-5 win at Los Angeles Tuesday evening. With Richard sporting a 9.51 ERA in his last three road starts, look for the Diamondbacks to improve to 13-4 as a host in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Steve Merril
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Rangers vs. Athletics
Play: Under 8
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Texas’ Rich Harden will make his second start after coming off the DL as the Rangers continue their series in Oakland with the Athletics. Harden picked up a 2-1 victory in Anaheim after giving up just one run and five hits in seven innings pitched. The righty defeated Oakland back in May after giving up just two hits in seven innings of work. In that game, he struck out nine Oakland batters while walking none. Only Coco Crisp (2-10) and Rajai Davis (1-2) have hits off Harden in their careers. The rest of the A's are 0 for 22. Oakland has been an Under team this season while hitting close to .260 as a team this year. For the second straight game, the Rangers will face a left-handed starter. This time it's Oakland’s Gio Gonzalez who relishes pitching at home. He's 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA in front of his fans. The lefty faced Texas on July 27th and gave up just one run and five hits in six innings pitched in Arlington. Overall, Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts against the Rangers. Vlad Guerrero (3-13), Bengie Molina (2-11), David Murphy (1-5), and Nelson Cruz (0-3) have poor numbers against Gonzalez. Texas has played Under the total more often against lefties this season. The team hits .259 on the road and will face an Oakland bullpen that has an ERA below 3.00 at home. We expect both pitchers to dominate this game, so we’ll recommend a play on the Under between the Rangers and A’s this afternoon.

Jim Feist
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Boston Red Sox
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Old rivals Boston and New York battle it out on Saturday. The Yankees are a big favorite, but the Red Sox are a very talented team, one always worth a look as a dog. Starter John Lackey has been throwing well, with a 3.48 ERA his last three starts, fanning 17 in 20 innings. NY ace C. C Sabathia is a .500 pitcher against the Red Sox, and even this season he has a 4.76 ERA against Boston in 17 innings. In an evenly matched rivalry battle, the underdog offers all the value. Play the Red Sox.

SPORTS WAGERS
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San Francisco +1.32 over ATLANTA
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The Giants won the second game of this series last night and they probably should’ve won Thursday’s game too after they went 1-10 with RISP. That was the first time in over a month they’ve lost back-to-back games and now they’ll send out Matt Cain at a pretty sweet price. Cain did not allow an earned run in two of his last four starts and his GB% is much improved over his last four games. Additionally, current Braves hitters are just 9-50 against Cain for a combined BA of .180. Cain's season ERA is now 2.98 and his WHIP is 1.13. After recording back-to-back wins over the Padres and Mets, everything’s looking good for Tim Hudson. He pitched well at the end of 2009 after missing a year recovering from Tommy John Surgery. With a 11-5 record and a 2.36 ERA, he’s a lock to steam through the next two months, right? Not so fast – there are definitely warning signs that Hudson’s going to hit some bumps in the road over the next couple of months. With a low hit% and an unsustainable high strand rate (83.8%), Hudson’s ERA is seriously deflated. xERA shows that he’s pitched about the same as in recent years; expect an ERA correction. While never a flame-thrower, Hudson’s striking out less and walking more than he has in the past. Hudson’s doing a great job keeping the ball on the ground, but it’s unlikely he can avoid line drives as well as he has over the past four months. Due to the injury, Hudson pitched very few innings in 2009. He’s already close to a 100 IP increase from last year so it wouldn’t be surprising if fatigue set in soon. Hudson’s not going to maintain the sub-3.00 ERA much longer and thus the value here lies in Matt Cain and the Giants. Play: San Francisco +1.32 (Risking 2 units).

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Houston +1.24 over MILWAUKEE
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The Brewers pulled one out of its hat last night with a four-run ninth to win 6-5. That was a heartbreaker for sure but don’t expect it to carry over. The Astros are hitting everything these days and in fact, only the Minnesota Twins have score more runs than Houston over the past 15 games. Randy Wolf took a line drive off his pitching wrist in his last start and immediately came out of the game. He says he’s all right but pitching in a game could result in it flaring up and besides, it’s not like Wolf is unhittable. He’s been torched in four of his last eight starts with two of those coming against the Pirates (12.2 IP, 20H, 16 ER) and one coming against both Seattle and San Fran. At home Wolf has a 4.63 ERA and age and health history say there's no upside wagering on him as the chalk. The Astros signed Brett Myers to a two-year contact extension this week. It's not difficult to see why. Myers has been wickedly good all year. Through 21 starts covering 145 innings, he has a 3.10 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 113 Ks. Myers is a peak-age hurler with consistent skills and one absolutely has to like his chances of throwing a much better game than Wolf. Play: Houston +1.24 (Risking 2 units).

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PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.78 over NY Mets
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The risk of laying 1½-runs is certainly worth it when you consider that Johan Santana is one of the most overpriced pitchers in the game. This guy has seen a big decline in his skills all year but the surface stats mask that. Santana’s GB% of 33 is one of the lowest in the big leagues and if that’s not a concern a 4% HR/F should be because that percent will rise. In fact his 4% HR/FB has carried his surface stats more than anything else and this park is not forgiving to those that allow an alarming number of fly balls to the wall. In fact, when Santana pitched here back in early May, he allowed 10 hits and eight runs in 3.2 innings and a repeat of that would not surprise. Santana is an imposter and the proof is in a progressive decline in his skills in each of the last four years. Cole Hamels is an ace, end of story. He gets tougher with men on base, as his 57% GB rate in those situations will attest to. Over his last six starts, Hamels has an ERA of 2.38 with 42 K’s in 42 IP. Furthermore, the Phillies are one of the hottest teams in the league and isn’t this about the time of year that the Mets collapse begins? Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.78 (Risking 2 units).

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HAMILTON –3 over Winnipeg
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Hamilton is 1-4 while the Bombers are 2-3 and this will already be the third time these two will have played this season with each squad winning big on its home field. The big difference is that the Ticats have played Saskatchewan, Montreal and Calgary in three of its last four games and there’s no disputing that those three are the three elite teams in this league. The Ticats were run over by the Als but otherwise they did not look a bit out of place against either Saskatchewan or Calgary. After playing that trio, this one might appear in slow motion for them. It’s also interesting to note that the TiCats were a three-point choice over Winnipeg just three games ago and won by 21 and now they’re a point cheaper. That, my friends is incorrect, as the Bombers are worse and the TiCats are better. In fact, Winnipeg arrived here Friday with a lineup missing a whole pile of battered regulars, including starting quarterback Buck Pierce. They played a strong game in Calgary last week but don’t put too much emphasis on that. Calgary was in a big letdown spot after a near flawless performance against Saskatchewan and they delivered the letdown. Let’s also not forget that this Ticat squad was not only supposed to be vastly improved this year, but was said to be ready to push the Montreal Alouettes for first in the East Division. However, a 1-4 start has turned that hope into a distant memory but it’s also created an undervalued team that really is very talented and ready to make a move. A loss here would put the TiCats in a big 1-5 hole and the players know it. They also know they’re a much better team that its record indicates and again, they’ve had a very tough schedule and thus, a misleading record to go along with it. That all changes here. Play: Hamilton –3 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

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Calgary –2½ over B.C. LIONS
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Laying road points in any football league is risky but damn, the alternative here is not very appealing. The Lions are plain and simple a bad football team. Its offense is a two-and-out machine and one really has to wonder how they’re going to keep pace with the potent offense of this intruder. Despite winning last week over the banged up Blue Bombers, the Stamps were not sharp at all last week and every member of the team has to feel extremely fortunate they escaped with a win. That game was a big reminder that you have to show up every week no matter the opposition and back-to-back stinkers for the Stamps is unlikely to occur. The Lions offer up very little. Its offense is weak and its defense is getting weaker because they’re on the field way too long. This is a squad made up of rejects and castoffs and everybody is getting frustrated. The Lions lone win this season came against the Eskies and the only way they pull off this upset is if the Stamps don’t show up or turn it over too many times. Calgary has still not played up to its potential other than that one game against the Riders. The fact is, the Stamps are vastly superior in every area than these Lions and it would absolutely be a shock to see the Lions pull this one out. The Stamps should be at least a 7-point choice here. Play: Calgary –2½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).

James Patrick Sports
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Twins vs. Indians
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Former Tribe pitcher Carl Pavano returns to Progressive Field and his Minnesota Twins ae (4-0) in his Saturday starts. Cleveland MGR. Manny Acta hands the ball to Fausto Carmona and he has won just once in his past (6) starts against the Twins. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday complimentary selection in Major League Baseball Saturday action is Minnesota Twins.

EZWINNERS
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Chicago White Sox -153
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The White Sox starting pitcher Gavin Floyd has been pitching as well as anyone in the big leagues recently. Floyd continued his recent run of success in his last start against Oakland on Sunday. Floyd took a perfect game into the sixth inning before settling for another outstanding outing in a 4-1 White Sox win over the A's. Floyd allowed one run on four hits in seven plus innings pitched. Floyd is now 5-2 with an ERA of only 1.06 in his last eleven starts and has not allowed a more than two earned runs over since June 2nd against the Rangers. Baltimore sends a struggling Kevin Millwood to the mound for this game. Millwood has been horrible this season to the point where he had almost no trade value at all as the Orioles could not make a deal to move him to a contender at the trade deadline. Millwood is just 2-11 this season with an ERA of 6.05 and over his last three starts Millwood is 0-3 with an ERA of 7.79. I don't expect those numbers to get any better against a White Sox team that is playing well and has hit him hard in the past. Millwood is only 1-5 in his career against the Sox and I expect them to hang another loss on him here today. Play on Chicago.

Rocketman
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Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Houston Astros
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Houston costs us last night as they allowed 4 runs in the bottom of the 9th to lose to the Brewers. I'm looking for them to bounce back here tonight. Houston is 30-21 against division opponents this year. Houston is 11-4 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Houston is 36-26 last 3 years in the month of August. Houston has won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Milwaukee has lost 6 of their last 9 games overall this year. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.25 ERA overall this year and a 5.40 ERA at home this season. Brett Myers is 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA overall this year and 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA his last 3 starts. Randy Wolf is 0-1 with a 7.23 ERA his last 3 starts. Myers is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -132
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The Colorado Rockies have rebounded from their lengthy losing streak to win 6 of their last 8, and I expect their winning ways to continue tonight against Pittsburgh. The Rocks should be in good hands with De La Rosa considering they have won 21 of his last 28 starts. The Rockies are also 7-2 in his last 9 starts vs. the National League Central. The Pirates are just 15-39 in their last 54 overall, and they don't inspire much confidence with Ohlendorf on the bump. The Pirates are just 5-16 in Ohlendorf's last 21 starts and 0-9 in his last 9 starts during game 3 of a series. Take the Rockies at a solid price this evening.

Tom Freese
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Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Houston Astros
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Houston starter Brett Myers has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Astros are 7-2 their last 9 games overall. Houston is 7-2 their last 9 games vs. Central Division teams and they are 4-0 their 4 games vs. lefty starters. The Astros are 5-0 in the last 5 starts made by Myers and they are 5-1 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Milwaukee starter Randy Wolf is 11-12 in his team starts this year. The Brewers are 2-9 with Wolf in his last 11 starts following a quality start in his last game. The Brewers are 1-4 with Wolf vs. a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is 1-4 when their opponent their opponent scores 5 or more runs in their last game.

Tony George
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Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Indians Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota
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Going to take a red hot Pavano on the road here against the Tribe tonight. Given the fact the Twins suffered a defeat last night at the hands of a walk off homer, I like them in revenge mode here with the better team to even the series. Minny hitting over .300 as a team overall their last 10 games, Cleveland struggling at the plate and I see the Twins giving Pavano enough run support to pull out a win tonight.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Houston Astros +126
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Houston had endured back-to-back losses since winning 7 straight, but the Astros will have an excellent opportunity to get back in the win column with Myers on the hill tonight. In fact, the Astros are 5-0 in Myers' last 5 starts. While Myers has been sizzlin' with a 1.64 ERA over his last 3 starts, the Brewers' Wolf has been strugglin' (7.23 ERA last 3 starts). The Brewers are only 1-4 in Wolf's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros have taken 4 of the last 5 in this matchup, and I'll take them in this bounce back spot tonight.

Lenny Del Genio
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Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
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The Sox lost a tough one last night 2-1, but they?ll bounce back strong today. Huge pitching mismatch in this game with Floyd opposing Millwood. Floyd is coming off a pair of strong performances with a 0.64 ERA. Millwood has been awful all season with a 6.05 ERA in 19 starts. Despite the Sox lost last night they are still 8-3 over this last 11 games and should have an easy today against Millwood. Play on White Sox.

SEAN MURPHY

Padres @ DBacks
PICK: Over 9
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The opener of this series totaled just three runs on Friday night, but keep in mind, when these two teams hooked up just three weeks ago, they combined to score at least 10 runs in all three games. That series took place at the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, while this one is going down at the launching pad that is Chase Field.

Expect a return to normalcy on Saturday evening, as we get an identical pitching matchup to the one that produced 13 total runs in that aforementioned series.
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Clayton Richard gets the start for the Padres. He has had an up and down season, but will have the opportunity to earn his 10th victory of the season on Saturday.

Richard was hit hard in July, with opponents batting a collective .301 against him in five starts. In his first August start, he was tagged for 10 hits and didn't make it out of the sixth inning.
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The current D'Backs roster has just 28 at-bats against Richard, but is hitting .393 and slugging .607.

Rodrigo Lopez will counter for the D'Backs. He has struggled lately, picking up just one win since the start of July. He's been fortunate to allow only 10 earned runs over his last three outings considering he's given up 19 hits and issued eight walks over that stretch.

Lopez hasn't been a good fit at Chase Field, going 3-6 with a 4.75 ERA. Opponents are hitting .279 against him here compared to .258 on the road.
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The current Padres roster is hitting .319 and slugging an impressive .694 in 72 career at-bats against Lopez. They were able to score six runs off of him back in mid-July, and that was before adding Tejada and Ludwick. The duo is a combined 10-for-26 against Lopez, each homering once.
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This is a strong bounce back spot for the Padres after being held to one run last night, while the D'Backs appear to be relishing playing the role of spoiler. After a pitcher's duel on Friday, expect a much different story to unfold in the desert on Saturday. Take the over.