LEE KOSTROSKI
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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The Cubs continue to be priced as favorites despite an incredibly woeful run of play. The Cubs are 1-8 in the last nine games and the one win was a game that Chicago was trailing in until the sixth inning before a few hits were strung together. In that span of losing the Cubs have scored three or fewer runs six times and allowed a combined total of 73 runs for a per-game average of more than eight runs allowed. In the opening game of this series the Cubs were shutdown 3-0 and Cincinnati should be in position for another win early Saturday.
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Randy Wells was arguably the most reliable pitcher for the Cubs last season but the numbers look fluky at this point. In 2010 Wells owns a 4.40 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and the Cubs are 9-13 in his starts. Chicago is 2-6 in his last eight starts and while has made a few positive outings in the past two months he also has allowed double-digit hit totals in three of his last ten outings. For the season foes are batting .274 against Wells as he is not fooling many and the Chicago bullpen has provided little support. The Cubs have a 4.97 bullpen ERA for the season with a 9.49 mark over the last ten games.
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Meanwhile Cincinnati could take charge of the NL Central with the bullpen pitching exceptionally well. The Reds have a 1.47 bullpen ERA in the past ten games and the unit has performed admirably on the road this season with a 3.42 ERA. The Reds have won every road series since the All Star Break and six of the last seven road series overall including taking three of four in Chicago in early July, out-scoring the Cubs by 22 runs in four games. The Reds have a poor record away from home against quality teams but Cincinnati has beaten up on losing teams, going 11-4 in the past 15 away games against below .500 clubs.
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Edinson Volquez nearly won the Cy Young in 2008 and he has made progress in his return to the big leagues after major surgery. Volquez has allowed just 17 hits in four starts since returning and his last effort featured just three hits and one run allowed against first place Atlanta. Cincinnati is 3-1 in his four starts even though he has not fully returned to his past levels. Value will be on Volquez now while it is unclear what he is capable of. The Reds have owned this series so far in 2010 while also going 17-4 in the last 21 road starts that Volquez has made. Chicago continues to struggle as the least profitable team in baseball and it makes sense to continue to fade the popular team.
JR O'Donnell
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SDP (-133) vs ARI
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Clayton Richard - 133 after the Padres get smashed last night and only muster 3 hits & the Padres have pieced together 6/7 overall against the Arizona Diamondbacks and a 5-10 overall & 4.64 ERA R Lopez gets shelled tonight @ home. The Arizona D Backs hurler has been smashed 1-4 the last 5 in 7 starts and does give up the long ball.. How a 'bout 27 so far ...geeeeez, The Zone has the power ratings at 2 + runs tonight. Let's roll the Padres tonight. The Padres are 7-0 100% C Richards last 7 starts vs the boys from the "National League West" JR ON THE PADRES TO BOUNCE BACK!!
Dan Bebe
OAK (-116) vs TEX
This is a play largely on the starters, and the line.
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I must be brief, as time is always short on weekends, but here are the key points.
Rich Harden is making his second start of the DL. We've seen time and time again a pitcher return from injury with a strong first outing, fueled by adrenaline, but that second start has been a weird spot. In the chilly night air in Oakland, I expect Harden to tighten up a bit against his old team, and the walks will return. The A's, for all their lack of strong batting averages, are a patient team. They swing and miss plenty, but they also take walks, and I believe that even if Harden can get out of this one only giving up 1-2 runs, he won't last long, and Texas will have to use some of their lesser bullpen arms. Harden, by the way, has a season ERA over 6 on the road.
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Gio Gonzalez is a monster at home, posting an ERA just over 3, and that's inflated from a couple bad starts against the hard-hitting Red Sox and Yankees. He has an ERA in the 2's lifetime against the Rangers, and lost a tight game to Cliff Lee just a couple weeks back despite giving up just 1 run in 6 innings. I believe Gonzalez wants some measure of revenge, and I think we get another good start from the lefty.
Oakland has been alternating wins and losses over their last 6 games, and after dropping another decision to Cliff Lee last night, they'll be excited to see anyone on that opposing mound besides Lee.
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The issue for the A's is always going to be run support, but the strong, strong opening number (with the A's being favored to one of the hugest public bets in baseball) is a good indicator that oddsmakers believe that one of two things will occur in this game. Either the A's put up 4-5 runs off Harden and the Texas B-list bullpen arms, or Gonzalez goes 7 innings and gives up 1 run. Both could happen, and I do believe this game will be relatively tight, but the A's strong bullpen work at home, compounded with Harden's likely emotional letdown in his second start back definitely make me think the A's get it done.
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Oakland takes this one in a sphincter-clencher, but it's a solid deal, nonetheless.
Play the A's!
Craig Trapp
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San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: San Diego Padres
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SD is one of the best teams in baseball verse ARI which is one of the worst 5 teams in the league. Huge pitching advantage as well as Richard goes for SD and Lopez goes for ARI. Richard has won 5 of last 8 starts and has been really good over last two months with a sub 3.5 ERA. Lopez on the other hand has been downright terrible this year allowing the most HR in the NL this year. Also he is 1-4 L6 starts with a 5.46 ERA. SD is not an a lineup that scores a bunch but they do work the count which could spell trouble for Lopez who does not have good control. Easy win as SD keeps on rolling.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Houston Astros +126
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The Astros, who have won 4 of their last 5 against the Brewers, have the edge tonight with Myers on the hill. Houston has won each of his last 5 starts, and he is carrying a tidy ERA of 1.64 over his last 3. Compare that to the Brewers' Wolf, who is carrying an ERA of 7.23 over his last 3. Wolf is off a Quality Start, but the Brewers are only 2-9 in his last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Houston at a nice price.
Wunderdog
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +1½
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The best team in baseball this season when facing a righthand pitcher on the runline has been the Toronto Blue Jays. James Shields has not had a good year for Tampa Bay, struggling to a 4.54 ERA. In addition, when he faces a team on the road with a winning record the Rays have been in trouble as they are just 10-25 in his last 35 starts in this situation. The numbers decline further as the Rays are 1-10 in Shield's last 11 starts after the Rays scored two or less in their last game. The Jays have really played well in the division taking nine of their last ten and are also 14-3 in their last 17 facing a pitcher with a WHIP pf 1.30 or greater. I'll go with Toronto here on the runline.
Nelly
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Washington + over Los Angeles
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The Dodgers continue to sink with another loss last night, now 7-15 since the All Star Break. The run production has been absolutely dreadful in that span, failing to top three runs in 16 of the 22 games. Los Angeles is batting .214 in the last ten games while Washington has been on a nice run, even in road games. The Nationals are 6-3 in the past nine games, cashing underdog tickets with each win and Washington is batting .286 in the last ten games against right-handed pitching. Hiroki Kuroda has allowed three or more runs in five of his last seven starts and the Dodgers are 1-5 in his last six starts. Everyone continues to write off Livan Hernandez but has been rock solid for Washington with a 3.12 ERA for the season, leading to 13 wins in his 22 starts. Washington has won each of his last two road starts and he has allowed just one run in each of his last three road outings. Hernandez has not allowed a home run since June and he is capable of another strong outing.
Info Plays
3* on Detroit Tigers -130
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Reasons the Tigers win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 6.50 over his last 10 starts. This is a 40-9 ML System hitting 81.6% since 1997. Bet Detroit at home.
Jack Jones
Texas Rangers +107
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Great value here with the Texas Rangers who lead the AL West and are an underdog to the Oakland A's Saturday. I'll gladly take them at this price as starter Rich Harden takes on his former team. Any time a starting pitcher is up against their former squad, they take the mound with a little added motivation and that will be the case for Harden tonight. Harden did face the A's earlier this season in his first career start against them, pitching 7 shutout innings while allowing just 2 hits and no walks and striking ou 9. The Rangers won that game 4-2.
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Texas is a very profitable 19-12 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Rangers are 18-9 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. So as you can see, they have delivered at a very high rate in this spot. The Rangers are 8-3 in Harden's last 11 starts overall. Texas is 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Texas is 18-7 in their last 25 road games. The Athletics are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record, including 1-5 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Texas is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with Oakland. Roll with the Rangers Saturday.
Doug Upstone
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers
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The Los Angeles Angels got back in the win column with a 4-2 defeat of Detroit. Scott Kazmir (7-9, 6.92 ERA) comes off the disabled list and he was brutal before going on it, with super-sized 14.06 ERA in his last three starts, roughly a month ago. The Halos bullpen is hardly comforting with 5.05 road ERA and the Tigers are 18-12 against lefty starters and 15-2 home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up one or more long balls per start.
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Today look to play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125, with a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season, with a frigid starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or higher over his last 10 starts. The reward for considering this play is 40-8 record, 81.6 percent.
John Ryan
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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5* graded play on Philadelphia as they host the Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game. Now only 1 game behind divisional leader Braves, the red hot Phillies look to continue their winning ways. With this rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, Kendrick, and Blanton they really have themselves in position to defend their back to back NL Championships. This the Phillies number three starter going up against the Mets ace adn they are still favored. There are nearly no teams that have that s starter like Hamels in the third slot. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 72-30 making 40.5 units since 2004. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start and sporting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. Phillies are 9-0 (+9.8 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams turning 0.8 or less double plays per game in the second half of the season this season; 13-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Mets are just 9-21 (-13.7 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Mets are batting just 227 and scoring 3.4 RPG over the past 7 games. The bullpen is in horrific form posting a 9.31 ERA with a 1.966 WHIP over the last 7 games. Santana has been roughed up in his last last three starts sporting a 5.49 ERA and 1.576 WHIP. Hamels is pitching rock solid sporting a 3.15 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP over his last three starts. Take the Phillies.
Scott Rickenbach
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Twins @ Indians
PICK: under 8
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he Twins last two games have gone over the total but, prior to that, Minnesota had recorded just one over in their last six games. As for the Indians, before yesterday’s 7-6 slugfest, they had been on a strong run to the under. In their last 20 games prior to Friday, Cleveland had recorded just five overs! On the season, the Indians are 27-16 to the under when they are coming off of a win. Also, as a home dog of +125 to +150, the Indians are 9-5 to the under this season, 19-11 to the under the last three seasons, and 44-25 to the under since 1996. 10 of their 16 Saturday games this season have stayed under the total. The Twins are 13-6-1 to the under in Carl Pavano’s last 20 starts. Look for him to have a strong start as he will be hyped up to face a former team. Additionally, the Indians are 8-4 to the under in Fausto Carmona’s last 12 starts! Also, Carmona has held opponents to a .248 batting average in night games this season. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cleveland on Saturday evening.
Black Widow
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1* on Kansas City Royals +105
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Bruce Chen remains one of the most underrated starters in all of baseball. He just finds a way to get the job done. Chen is 6-5 with a 4.74 ERA this season for the Royals, and posting a winning record on this team is no small feat. Chen is 2-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 5 career starts against Seattle, so he loves facing this weak Mariners line-up. Seattle is scoring 3.3 runs/game this season while hitting .236 with a .301 on base percentage. They have the worst offense in baseball, hands down. Seattle is 8-24 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. Take the Royals on the Money Line.
Freddy Wills
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Colorado Rockies -1½
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Jorge De La Rosa is getting a lot of value here and I'm buying he's really this teams #2 starter if you ask me and he's been injured, but now coming back strong with a 3.20 ERA in his last three starts. He had a 7 IP 2 ER performance at the end of July against the Pirates to get this going and now he'll come back again vs. the Pirates who have a .202 average in their last 10 vs. LHP.
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Rockies are 42-17 in their last 55 vs. the NL Central and are 21-6 in De La Rosa's last 27 vs. a losing team. Pirates throw Ohlendorf out there who has pitched decent, but has a 1-9 record and in 2009 he made 2 starts against the Rockies and neither of them went well as he threw for 11 IP and gave up 9 ER on 15 hits. Look for the Rockies who have a .308 average in their last 10 games with 5.49 runs per 9 vs. RHP to get it done again here today. Pit is just 17-37 in their last 54 vs. NL West.
Hollywood Sports
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Rockies at Pirates
Prediction: Over
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Colorado sends out Jorge De La Rosa who is 4-3 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the season. But he has struggled mightily on the road given his 7.53 ERA and 1.81 WHIP away from Coors Field this season. He is countered by Ross Ohlendorf who is 1-9 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season. Ohlendord has struggled against the Rockies given his 6.94 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and .391 opponent's batting average in 11 2/3 innings of work throughout his brief career. This will likely continue as Colorado has played four straight games Over the Total when facing starters with a WHIP over 1.30. Furthermore, the Over is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh.
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On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. De La Rosa and Ohlendorf have high ISO's of .168 and .193 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.