Rob Vinciletti
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -139
The Cardinals are better in just about every category over Milwaukee. They have the #1 road era, The Brewers have 14th home Era. The Cards are 18-6 here and are 30 games over .500 vs right handers this year. Garcia for the Cardinals has won his last 2 here and has a 1.67 road Era. Peralta for Milwaukee has lost both starts this year vs St. Louis and is 0-3 in August starts. St. Lois fits an 82% system that pertains to last nights win by over 5 runs against Milwaukee. Take the St. Louis Cardinals.
Dave Price
Chicago Cubs -135
The Chicago Cubs just beat the San Francisco Giants 7-3 yesterday to improve to 60-48 on the season. They are currently playing their best baseball of the year, having gone 8-1 in their last nine games overall. I will continue to back them Saturday at a very generous price as small home favorites over the Giants. There's no doubt that Chicago has the advantage on the mound and should be a bigger favorite. Kyle Hendricks is 5-5 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in 21 starts this year, including 1-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 9 home starts. He'll be opposed by Matt Cain, who is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 6 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in 4 road starts. The Giants are 11-25 in Cain's last 36 starts. San Francisco is 0-8 in Cain's last 8 starts with a total set of 6.5 or lower. The Cubs are 7-0 in Hendricks' last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates -127
The Pittsburgh Pirates earned a walk-off win in the 10th inning last night against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They improved to 63-44 on the season thanks to winning nine of their last 13 games overall. I look for them to continue this hot streak Saturday behind the edge that they'll have on the mound.
Francisco Liriano has clearly revived his career in Pittsburgh. He has been brilliant once again in 2015, going 7-6 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.061 WHIP with 140 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings. Liriano owns the Dodgers, going 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Mat Latos has been pitching well lately, which is a concern, but he is still just 4-7 with a 4.29 ERA on the season. Now he faces a team he has had little success against lately. Latos has given up 11 runs, 9 earned, 6 homers and 23 base runners over 16 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.
The Pirates are 36-16 in their last 52 home games. Pittsburgh is 39-15 in its last 54 games as a favorite. The Pirates are 7-0 in their last seven vs. NL West opponents. The Dodgers are 2-10 in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in Liriano's last six starts, including 5-0 in his last five home starts. It is also 7-0 in his last seven starts as a favorite.
Brandon Lee
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -108
This is simply too good a price to back the Royals at home, regardless of who is on the mound for either side. Kansas City is 35-18 in their 51 home games to this point. They have won 8 of 11 meetings against the White Sox in 2015 and 4-0 in the 4 games at home. Chicago will send out Jeff Samardzija, who I think is one of the more overrated starters. Samardzija has a 4.81 ERA in 12 road starts and 6.10 ERA in his last 3 outings. He's also 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 3 career starts against the Royals. Kansas City's Jeremy Guthrie has a respectable 3.96 ERA in 10 home starts and a 3.47 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 25 career starts against the White Sox.
Jimmy Boyd
St. Louis Cardinals -135
St Louis is well on their way to their 3rd straight win and 6th in their last 8 overall and I think they are well worth another look in Saturday's second game of the series. Assuming they don't blow tonight's game, the Cardinals will be 18-6 in their last 24 road games against the Brewers.
The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound in this one, which only adds to the value we are getting with St Louis as a pretty small favorite given how much better they have been than Milwaukee this season. St Louis will send out Jaime Garcia, who has posted a sensational 1.98 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in 9 starts, including a dominant 1.67 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 4 road starts.
Cardinals are 4-1 in Garcia's last 5 road starts against a team with a losing record, 7-1 in their last 8 as a road favorite and 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. Brewers are 1-4 in Peralta's last 5 starts as a home dog and 0-4 in his last 4 starts following an outing in which he lasted 4 innings or less.
Jim Feist
Orioles vs. Angels
Play: Under 7
Baltimore has great pitching depth and is No. 1 in baseball in defense with the fewest errors made, while the Angels rank 8th in fewest errors. Baltimore is 23-9-1 under the total against the American League West. Ubaldo Jimenez has had a fine campaign for the Orioles with a 110-39 strikeout to walk ratio. He also has a 2.57 ERA against the Angels this season. The Under is 20-8-3 in the Orioles last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning record. LA is home and 14-5-1 under the total at home. Garrett Richards (11-8, 3.46 ERA) has excellent stuff with opponents hitting .228 off him. Richards earned the win Monday against Cleveland as he allowed four runs on four hits and three walks over 7.1 innings. He struck out 11. Richards now has 102 strikeouts in 129 innings and is 7-2 at home with a 2.36 ERA. LA is 11-4-1 under the total at home against a right-handed starter and the under is 34-15-2 in the Angels last 51 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.
Andre Ramirez
Oluwale Bamgbose vs. Uriah Hall
Play: Uriah Hall -370
Uriah Hall should KO Oluwale with no problems. This fight is excellent for a Parlay of your choice. Hall is a kick-boxer, who has mastered the spin kick. Oluwale is coming into this fight with short notice, and has great power behind his punch! Oluwale likes to punch with his arms enclosed on his chest, and this will leave him open for major strikes. Oluwale is a one sided fighter, and he will struggle if he fights his game! Lay the money on Hall.
World Wide Sports
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: New York Mets -120
Noah Syndergaard will be on the mound for the Mets. Syndergaard is 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 15 starts this season. Syndergaard is 0-4 on the road with a 4.34 ERA in 7 starts. Nathan Karns will start for the Rays. Karns is 6-5 with a 3.37 ERA in 21 starts. Karns is 3-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 12 home starts. Syndergaard is overdue for a win on the road with his arsenal of pitches. The Rays rank towards the very bottom of the league vs RHP. Karns is a talented pitcher but I expect the Mets to take him for a few runs.
Big Al
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick:Texas
So which version of LHP Martin Perez will show up tonight in Seattle? Will it be the version that two starts ago gave up a whopping eight runs in one inning? Or will it be the Martin Perez who threw 8 1/3 near-perfect frames in his very next start (his most recent) allowing just one run on two hits? We're going to bet on the latter because the one-inning melt down was against the hottest offense (at the time at least) in the Yankees. Perez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and tonight will be fifth start since coming back so we would expect the improvement shown last Sunday against the Giants to continue this afternoon, especially in a pitcher-friendly place like SafeCo Field and against a weak offense like the M's. Seattle will send its own LH, rookie Mike Montgomery to the mound and after a very promising start which saw him go 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA (and two CGs) in the month of June, Montgomery regressed significantly last month, going 1-2 with a 5.88 ERA in five starts. He will have his hands full in his first career start vs. the Rangers who are 31-24 on the road this season and 8-3 in Perez's last 11 road starts.
Will Rogers
Orioles vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The Angels made a late season surge last year, finishing first in the American League after a slow start. They will likely have a tough time catching Kansas City, but if they can finish strong again this season, the AL West is still up for grabs. They look good as a small favorite at home versus the Orioles on Saturday.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Angels will send Garrett Richards to the mound, and the 27 year old has been brilliant at home. Richards (11-8, 3.46 ERA) went 7.1 innings, allowing four runs on four hits in a home win over Cleveland in his last start. He's now 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA at home. The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who was hammered by Detroit in his last start, and has struggled on the road all year long.
2. Mike Trout - The 24 year old phenom hit his major league best 33rd home run of the season last night, and he's batting .375 against the Orioles this season.
3. X-Factor - The Angels are 25-9 in Richards' last 34 home starts.
MMA OddsBreaker
McMann vs. Nunes
Pick: Under 2.5
Amanda Nunes is a rarity in women's MMA. She's the type of fighter who either lives by the sword or dies by it. Out of her 14 professional fights, she's only ever gone to decision once. She usually either knocks her opponent out, or she runs out of gas and her opponent crushes her with strikes on the ground.
This will be the case on Saturday night against Olympic silver medal-winning wrestler Sara McMann. McMann could be vulnerable to the early knockout from Nunes but if Nunes can't put her away quickly, she's going to get taken down and absolutely destroyed on the ground by McMann's superior wrestling. McMann isn't a huge finisher but she has power and if Nunes gasses as badly as I think she will, McMann should have no problem finishing this fight either. I love the UNDER 2.5 rounds total in this fight and recommend a wager on it.
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins
Cleveland's mysterious shortcomings at home continued during Friday's 10-9 loss to the Twins, which also might be a signal that Minnesota's offense is finally about to stir after two weeks in a funk. The Friday result did break a 5-game Minnesota losing streak and starter Ervin Santana returns to the site of his no-hitter in 2011 while pitching for the Angels. Tribe starter Trevor Bauer is 0-3 with a 6.07 ERA in five career starts vs. the Twins.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Pick: Minnesota Twins
Edges - Twins: Ervin Santana 1.52 ERA and 0.84 WHIP away as opposed to 11.17 ERA and 2.38 WHIP home this season, and 13-7 last twenty team starts during the month of June, and 13-7 last twenty away team starts during the month of August. Indians: Trevor Bauer 5.59 ERA home as opposed to 2.35 ERA away this season, and 4-10 last fourteen team starts versus A.L. Central opponents. With Bauer is 1-4 in his career team starts in this series, including 0-2 with a 6.36 ERA home, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS @ MARINERS
PLAY: RANGERS +120
The Mariners came from behind to capture the series opener with the Rangers at Safeco. But I’ll be looking for Texas to even the score tonight.
Seattle has been an underachiever all season in terms of the expectations that existed prior to the campaign. The Rangers are the opposite side of that spectrum. Not much was positive was forecast for Texas as their pitching staff got annihilated by injury issues. But the Rangers have hung tough all year and they’re still adding pieces in an effort to sneak into the playoffs. The latest arrival is Mike Napoli, who was obtained late Friday in a deal with the Red Sox involving either a player to be named later or cash.
Marin Perez, one of the Texas pitchers sidelined for most of the year, has returned to action, and he’ll be off a sensational start as he takes the mound at Safeco this evening. It’s going to be a battle of southpaws as rookie Mike Montgomery gets the call for the home team.
Perez looked really good in his most recent starts, and his first few efforts might be excusable as there had to be some ring rust off a very long layoff. Most encouraging might be the fact that Perez is throwing harder than he did in 2014 prior to getting hurt. This is a lefty with considerable upside if he stay healthy and remain in the rotation. I don’t see Perez ever becoming an ace as many thought he would be while a minor league prospect. But when he’s throwing strikes and generating ground balls, Perez can absolutely be an effective middle of the rotation guy.
I’m not as sold on Montgomery, who at one time was a huge prospect but had fallen off the chart completely prior to this year. The whole key for this lefty is going to be his control. When he’s hitting his spots, he’s not bad. But Montgomery can also get very wild at times and I suspect that will be an ongoing issue moving forward.
As for the other elements, the numbers point to the Texas side as far as offense goes, and neither team gets a high grade in the bullpen category. It’s worth noting that the Rangers have been a very good road team this year, while the Mariners have been worse at Safeco that they when wearing gray. Seattle got a nice win on Friday evening and they’re a more dangerous team now that Robinson Cano has emerged from what was a prolonged first half slump. But the Rangers have been a very resilient bunch and I like the idea of backing Perez off his very impressive last outing. Texas as a pretty decent dog price looks good to me.