SPORTS WAGERS
St. Louis -1½ +140 over MILWAUKEE
Wily Peralta’s young power arm took a nice step forward a season ago but the timing for full breakout is on hold because he has a ton of work to do. The easiest pitchers to hit against are those with high velocity without movement and Peralta hits the bill. He throws 94 mph on the gun with regularity but he’s only inducing swings and misses at a 5% clip. Furthermore, his control or lack thereof has become another issue that he cannot overcome. Over his last two starts covering a mere nine frames, Peralta was walked five and struck out five. His first-pitch strike rate in 11 starts this year is a horrible 55% but since coming off the DL (he missed time between May 22 and July 28), Peralta’s first-pitch strike rate is 45% and it was 38% in his last game. This year is a write-off for the Peralta. He comes in with terrible numbers across the board including a 1.50 WHIP, 40 K’s in 63 frames, a ERA/xERA split of 4.55/5.74 and he’ll now face the only team is MLB that is playing above .600 ball.
Jamie Garcia has also spent the majority of the season on the DL but the difference is that Garcia has filthy stuff and he has not allowed more than 3 earned runs in any of his nine starts this season. Allowing three only happened twice, as Garcia has allowed two or less in the other seven. It gets even better. Garcia’s batted ball profile is the best in MLB with a 67%/13%/20% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate. That’s almost hard to believe, as the groundball rate is the highest in the game while the line-drive and fly-ball rates are both the lowest. It’s only over 59 innings but his ERA/xERA split of 1.98/2.94 says it’s all legit.The Brewers have the second worst home record in the majors and their record against teams at or above .500 is 27th out of 30 teams. Did we mention that Milwaukee owns the majors worst batting average against lefties at .221? Jamie Garcia is a lefty.
ARIZONA -1½ +168 over Cincinnati
The Cincinnati Reds have been shutout in three of its past five games. In two of those, the Reds were shutout by Charlie Morton and Chase Anderson, two struggling pitchers having bad years and all three shutouts were at hitter-friendly venues. The Reds dumped Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto at the deadline. They’re 21 games out of the division lead and now Todd Frazier, at one time the hottest hitter in baseball, has checked out. Joey Votto has been checking in and out for years. Actually, the entire squad has checked out. Cincinnati’s .208 batting average over its past seven games is the worst in the NL. The Reds are also coming off nine straight games against two of their biggest rivals in Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Their intensity level figures to be much lower for a three-game set in the desert and it started last night with a lucklaster 2-0 defeat.
Keyvius Sampson makes his second MLB start, this time in hitter-friendly Chase Field. His first outing was a successful one against Pittsburgh featuring 6 K/1 BB in 5 innings but he did allow 3 earned runs and one of the hits he gave up was a jack. Sampson has potential but this is a letdown spot after his MLB debut at home against the Pirates. He’s also a kid with some ugly minor-league numbers at Triple-A in 2015 (8g, 7gs, 2-4, 5.08 ERA, 39.0 IP, 5.1 BB’s/9, .267 oppBA) for Louisville. You’ll notice the 5.1 BB’s/9 and that’s been an issue for him forever with a career walk rate of 4.5 BB’s/9 that has been up around 5 between Double-A and Triple-A this year. He has a breaking ball and a changeup that are inconsistent so once he starts falling behind, he’ll be forced to throw dead red. He fooled the Pirates, as they were swinging at bad pitches all night long but again, that was his first MLB start and we guarantee you that the D-Backs will be watching the film of that start and not not helping him out like the Pirates did.
We’ve written about Robbie Ray before and we’re still on board with this under the radar pitcher. Ray’s average fastball sits at 93.5 mph. For the sake of reference, we have Clayton Kershaw at 93.6 and David Price at 93.8. We mention that pair because they are southpaws and now Ray joins them with his big-league lefty fastball. Ray has whiffed 25 batters over his past 22 innings. He’s gone to a slurve with a little more depth, and his breaking-ball whiff rate has more than doubled. All of this is supported by his 11% swing and miss rate. Ray comes in with a 3.01/3.55 ERA/xERA split. His groundball rate iis trending the right away and has been doing so the entire year. Robbie Ray is still a work in progress but he has all the tools to an elite lefty in this league and we’re going to follow his progress closely. He’ll have some blowups along the way but he’ll have far more dominant starts. Everything here points to a dominant performance because the Reds are just going through the motions right now while Arizona plays their hearts out every game. Incidentally, Arizona is 30-18 against teams below .500.
Tony Stoffo
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -115
Boston sends Wade Miley to the hill in an attempt at their third series win since the All-Star break. The left hander has a 8-9 record with a 4.55 ERA and is 4-5 with a 4.06 ERA in 12 road starts. Boston is 2-9 in their last 11 road games and only 2-6 in their last 8 games and 18-30 on the season following a win. The Red Sox are also 6-16 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. Detroit tries to even it at one win apiece behind Alfredo Simon, 10-6 with a 4.55 ERA. His team's record is 2-1 in his starts against the Red Sox. The Tigers are 15-11 against left-handed starters. From our Data Base: The Tigers are 13-0 since July 30, 2014 at home after a loss in which they had a higher team left on base than their opponent.
Steve Rosen
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves +102
Returning home has helped the Atlanta Braves find their offense, and they hope a couple of newcomers will contribute to the scoring trend when the Miami Marlins visit on Saturday. Atlanta, which scored 21 runs during a 2-8 road trip, has totaled 28 in the first five games of its current homestand and looks for a boost from veterans Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, who were acquired in a trade Friday with Cleveland! On the other hand the Marlins fell apart in Friday’s 6-3 loss. Miami has lost five in a row and 12 of its past 14, falling to a season-worst 24 games under .500. Friday’s victory gives the Braves a 9-2 advantage in the season series! Koehler has struggled in losing his past two starts, giving up seven runs (six earned) in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-1 loss Monday to the New York Mets after allowing five runs in six innings July 29 against Washington. The 29-year-old has lost four of his past five outings. following a three-start winning streak, and owns a 5.01 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break. Koehler, who is 1-1 in three games against Atlanta this season, is 1-3 lifetime against the Braves.
ASA
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: San Francisco Giants +131
San Francisco is third in the NL in runs scored per game and second in the NL in runs allowed per game so far in the second half of the season. San Francisco continues to pace the NL in several offensive categories and the pitching staff has done its part as well despite several of the expected regulars providing limited contributions. Matt Cain spent much of the first half on the DL and while he has not resembled the pitcher he was in his best seasons from 2009-2012 he is still capable of providing competent starts to this rotation. Cain has allowed just 13 runs in his last five starts and he has walked just four batters in that run spanning 28 innings of work. The Cubs are hitting just .236 on the season as this has been a struggling offensive team that has scored just four runs per game since the break while getting outscored on average despite a recent run of wins. Chicago has several young stars in the making but the Cubs have one of the NL’s worst extra-base hit rates along with one of the highest strikeout rates. In what has been a very good Chicago rotation Kyle Hendricks has filled out a role in the back of the staff admirably. In 21 starts his ERA is just 3.67 but he has allowed nearly a hit per inning and in four of his last nine starts he has allowed four or more runs. Hendricks has just one Wrigley Field win all season and the Chicago bullpen also continues to battle inconsistency. In 23 of the last 26 games Chicago has been held to five or fewer runs, a mark San Francisco has topped in four of the last seven games and 11 of the last 23 games as the Giants have a far more consistent offensive attack with the potential to put up big numbers even with Chicago taking the first two games of this key series in the NL wild card race.
Doug Upstone
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -137
Play Against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like CINCINNATI after scoring three runs or less in five straight games, against opponent after a combined score of three runs or less. What has occurred in the past is the lack of scoring continues and they have faltered 49 of the last 65 times in this exact situation the last 18 years.
Hollywood Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles (62-47) looks to bounce-back from a 5-4 loss to the Pirates last night and they have rebounded to win 42 of their last 61 games after a loss. They send out Latos who has a strong 2.44 ERA along with a 1.13 WHIP when on the road with the Marlins and Dodgers this season. Pittsburgh (63-44) counters with Liriano who has a 2.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP this season but these numbers do rise to a 3.65 ERA and 1.05 WHIP when at home. The Pirates have lost 7 of their last 8 home games with Liriano pitching as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. That is not a good sign when facing this Dodgers team that has won 4 of their last 5 road games against left-handed starting pitchers.
John Ryan
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
This play is a continuation of my 'arbitrage' wager where I am selling the Yankees and Buying the Blue Jays. The strategy is based on the premise that Toronto will catch and pass the NY Yankees in the next 2 to 4 weeks if not sooner. This is day four of that strategy and the first three days have made $305 for the $100 wagerer. With the two teams playing each other, there will be only one wager and obviously that is on the Blue Jays. So, wager a 10* play ($100 for the 10* per unit player) on the Blue Jays.
For those reviewing this strategy for the first time, an arbitrage in Wall Street terms is the simultaneous buying and selling of homogenous securities. So, in the software space, Apple Computer and Microsoft would be considered homogenous securities as woulds the 10-year Treasury Note and the 2-year Treasury Note. If an investor believes that Apple will out perform Microsoft then they would engage in buying Apple and shorting (selling) Microsoft. There is a weighting calculation that needs to be applied as well to equate the securities equally since Apple trades at $115 per share and Microsoft at $47 per share.
The same strategy can be applied with great success in the MLB. So, if you share in my strong belief that Toronto will close the gap on the Yankees and eventually overtake them for the AL East then make sure you get the daily update each morning. Keep in mind too, that these tow teams will face each other 13 times over the remainder of the season.
Now, the Yankees lead that once seemed wide enough to take control of the Division is down to just three games. The Yankees also have to play this 'murderers row' offense 12 more times this season. Making it even worse for the Yankees is that they will now face David Price. He has been on eof the best AL starters this season posting a 10-4 record in 22 starts with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. His team record is 16-6 in his 22 starts this season. In day starts he has a perfect 3-0 mark in nine starts with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP. Within the AL East Division, he is a perfect 7-0 in 11 starts with a 1.83 ERA and a 0.980 WHIP and the team record is a perfect 11-0. Last, but not least, he is 6-2 in 11 road starts with 8-3 team record and a 2.34 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP.
Power Sports
Cincinnati vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
Cincinnati is simply not a very good team. Last night saw them get shut out for the second straight night and on the road, they've pretty much been a disaster this season, going 20-33. Over the L5 games, they've been shutout three times and are batting just .208 their last seven. Look for the D'backs to make it two straight.
Arizona starter Robbie Ray is one of those where the record is quite misleading. In eight of 12 starts overall, he's allowed 2 ER or less, yet he finds himself w/ just a 4-8 team start record. Again though, he's catching the Reds lineup at the right time. Cincy has gone six straight games w/o collecting 10 hits. Only once in the L10 games has Cincy scored more than four runs.
The Reds' rotation is in shambles and Keyvius Sampson became the 12th starter used by the club this year in his debut last Sunday. While he allowed only three hits, he also allowed three runs in five innings. With the offense not hitting, his margin for error here is slim. There's simply no reason to believe in the road team in this one.