SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston (62-46) at N.Y. Yankees (67-42)
CC Sabathia (11-7, 3.95 ERA) takes the ball for the Yankees as they continue their four-game series in the Bronx against the Red Sox, who are set to counter with struggling right-hander Clay Buchholz (1-1, 6.05).
New York snapped a nine-game losing skid to its hated rivals with Thursday’s 13-6 victory, then came back on Friday and pulled out a 2-0 victory in 15 innings, courtesy of Alex Rodriguez’s walk-off two-run homer. The Yankees have won six in a row overall and are on additional upticks of 52-25 overall, 45-18 at home, 20-7 versus A.L. East rivals and 19-4 against right-handed starters.
Boston has followed up a four-game winning streak by dropping its last four in a row, all on the road, falling to 3-9 in its last 12 as a visitor. Additionally, the Red Sox have lost seven in a row to teams with a winning record, but they’re still on positive runs of 27-14 in divisional play and 7-2 on Saturday. Also, they’re still 9-2 in the last 11 clashes with the Yankees.
With Buchholz starting, the BoSox are on a slew of negative streaks, including 3-10 overall, 3-11 on the road, 3-7 against the A.L. East and 0-5 versus teams with a winning record. On Sunday in Baltimore, Buchholz was staked to a 7-0 lead but couldn’t even get an out in the fifth inning and finished allowing seven runs on nine hits in four innings, though the Red Sox won 18-10.
Buchholz, who does not have a quality outing in any of his last 14 big-league starts dating to last April, is 1-1 with a 7.24 ERA in three road efforts this season. He also has a 7.45 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees (both last April), giving up a run on four hits in six innings at home (Boston lost 4-1), then getting rocked for seven runs on eight hits in 3 2/3 innings of a 15-9 road loss five days later.
Sabathia is coming off consecutive shaky outings, both on the road, allowing a combined 11 runs (10 earned) on 19 hits (three home runs) in 12 2/3 innings (7.11 ERA). He lost 6-2 to the Rays on July 28, but came back and earned an 8-5 victory at the White Sox on Sunday. The Yanks are 5-1 in Sabathia’s last six starts when he comes off five days of rest.
Sabathia is 4-2 with a 4.02 ERA in 10 home starts this year, 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA in 10 day games and 2-5 with a 4.07 ERA in eight career starts against the Red Sox. That includes a 4-3 loss in Boston on June 11 – his only start versus the Sox since signing with New York – as the hefty lefty yielded all four runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings.
The over is 4-2-1 in the last seven Red Sox-Yankees battles at The Stadium. Additionally, New York carries “over” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 with Sabathia on the hill. Similarly, the Red Sox are on “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-2 against lefty starters, 7-2 when playing on grass, 9-4-1 when Buchholz starts and 7-3 when Buchholz pitches on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
Texas (61-47) at L.A. Angels (64-43)
The top two teams in the A.L. West continue their three-game series in southern California, with the Rangers’ Kevin Millwood (9-7, 3.39 ERA) slated to return from a stint on the disabled list and match up for the third time this season against the Angels’ Jered Weaver (11-3, 3.73).
The Rangers jumped out to a 9-1 lead on Friday and cruised to an 11-6 victory. Texas is 13-6 in its last 19 overall and 10-2 in its last 12 against opponents that have a winning record, but it has lost four straight Saturday contests.
Despite losing on Friday, L.A. has been the hottest team in baseball over the past two months, going 35-14 in its last 49 games overall and 19-9 in its last 28 at home (8-3 last 11). The Halos are on further positive surges of 6-0 on Saturday and 7-3 against teams with a winning record
Texas is 8-2 against the Angels this season and 10-3 in the last 13 clashes dating to 2008, and it has won six of the last eight meetings in Anaheim.
Millwood hasn’t pitched since July 26 at Kansas City when he was lifted after two scoreless innings with a pulled muscle in his backside. Not including that outing, Millwood has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts and 13 of his 21 starts this season. The Rangers are 7-3 in Millwood’s last 10 starts, but they’re a woeful 9-26 in his last 35 on the highway, and they’ve lost four straight Saturday games behind the veteran right-hander.
On the road this season, Millwood is 2-6 with a 4.41 ERA in 10 starts, including a 9-4 loss to Weaver in Anaheim on July 6 when Millwood gave up all nine runs in five innings, his worst outing of the season. For his career, he’s 4-5 with a 4.62 ERA in 14 starts against the Angels (1-1, 7.79 ERA in three game this season).
The Angels are 12-2 in Weaver’s last 14 starts overall, including winning his last six outings in a row, capped by Sunday’s 13-4 rout at Minnesota. However, Weaver hasn’t pitched exceptionally well during this stretch and in fact has allowed at least four runs in seven straight starts. Against the Twins on Sunday, he surrendered four runs in 6 1/3 innings, but struck out a season-high 11. The right-hander has a 6.96 ERA in his last four starts, and since June 14, his overall ERA has risen from 2.08 to 3.79.
Los Angeles is 25-9 in Weaver’s last 34 starts in Anaheim, including 10-2 this year, as he’s 7-1 with a 2.68 ERA on his own turf in 2009. The Angels are also 4-1 in his last five home outings against the Rangers, and for his career, Weaver is 3-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts against Texas (1-1, 5.75 ERA in three starts in 2009).
With Millwood hurling, Texas is on “under” tears of 22-6-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 5-1-1 on Saturday, 7-2 versus winning teams and 5-1 when he pitches in Angel Stadium. On the flip side, the Angels have topped the total in each of Weaver’s last nine starts overall, each of his last five at home and five of his last seven against A.L. West opponents. However, the under is 6-2-1 in Weaver’s last nine starts against Texas.
As a team, Los Angeles is on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 41-14-4 overall (14-1-1 last 16), 22-5-1 at home (11-0 last 11), 23-5-2 against right-handed starters and 5-0 on Saturday. On the other hand, the Rangers are on “under” stretches of 38-15-2 overall, 6-3-1 on the road and 12-4-1 on Saturday. Finally, five of the last six meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the total, and the “over” hit in both previous Weaver-Millwood matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Frank Jordan
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners
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In his first start for the Mariners Ian Snell went 6 solid innings allowing just 2 runs on three hits, but suffered the loss in a 4-2 defeat. James Shields hasn't quite had the magic of last year and the results and is 1-4 over his last 10 starts dropping his record to 6-8 and is 0-1 against Seattle this year. Look for Snell to pitch another quality start this time picking up the win as Seattle defeats the Rays. Play Seattle
Tony Karpinski
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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Under 8.5
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An early day game on the West Coast following a late game and I like our chances with the UNDER. The Reds are averaging 3.8 runs per game when facing left-handed starters and 13-17 to the under. San Francisco is averaging 4.1 runs per game when facing right-handed starters and 34-41 to the under in those games. Both teams bullpens have decent numbers with the Reds road ERA of 3.55 and the Giants ERA of 2.94 at home. With solid support fundamentally and technically we will play the LOW here in this battle at the bay!
BIG AL
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Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
Play: Over 9
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We're in the second half of the season now and that can mean only one thing for the Angels. They must be on pins and needles to see how righthanded ace Jered Weaver is going to perform. In two of the past three seasons, Weaver has had a precipitous drop-off after stellar first half performances. Last season was a perfect example as Weaver won eight games and had a 4.03 ERA in 19 starts before the break, but only won three more games along with a 4.90 ERA in 11 starts from there on. And the news so far for this season is not good. Weaver had All Star type numbers (although he was somehow left off the roster) before the break at 10-3 with a 3.22 ERA, but so far in four post-break starts, he has just one win with an ugly ERA of 6.95. Rangers righthander Kevin Millwood has had challenges of a different sort in the second half, as he is coming off of an injury to his gluteus muscle of all things. (Think Millwood is the "butt" of jokes around the Texas clubhouse?) Anyway, his rear end should be healed enough for him to make this start this afternoon. As for Weaver, he can at least be confident that if recent history is any indication, he should be getting plenty of run support even if his second-half slide continues as the Angels have been putting up huge run totals lately despite pitching that has been sub-par to say the least. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings of these two teams heading this afternoon's critical game, and this should be another high-scoring affair. Take the 'over'.
Cajun Sports
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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Under 8.5
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These two teams will square-off in the second-game of their weekend set on Saturday afternoon with the first pitch scheduled for 4:05PM EST. Our selection is on the under in this contest as we see about a ½ run or better advantage to playing the low side today. The TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a final score of 4 to 3 which falls well below the posted total of 8.5. The real strength of our selection though comes from the Math Model and PRS (Projected Runs Scored) Index which have a total for this game at 6.2 and 6.9 runs respectively. Support also comes from the teams over/under records themselves with the Reds posting a record of 44-58 under this season and the Giants with a record of 45-55 under on the year. When Cincinnati hits the road their over/under record is 20-31 while San Francisco checks in at 23-25 when playing at AT&T Park. The Reds will send right-hander Bronson Arroyo to the bump with his 9-11 under record overall and 3-6 under record when playing on the road. In seven appearances versus the Giants the under has cashed in six of those contests. San Francisco will send left-hander Barry Zito to the mound with his 8-12 under record this season and 4-6 under at home. The Reds are averaging 3.8 runs per game when facing left-handed starters and 13-17 to the under. San Francisco is averaging 4.1 runs per game when facing right-handed starters and 34-41 to the under in those games. Both teams bullpens have decent numbers with the Reds road ERA of 3.55 and the Giants ERA of 2.94 at home. On the technical front we see that the Reds are 9-19 under as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season, 35-53 under on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 and 2-10 under in road games in day games this season. San Francisco is 29-54 under in home games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, 11-24 under versus an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season and 9-20 under when playing against a team with a win percentage of thirty-eight to forty-six percent this season. With solid support fundamentally and technically we will play this contest to fall below the posted total.
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Graded Selection: 2* Cincinnati / San Francisco UNDER 8.5
Red Dog Sports
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Baltimore at Toronto
Play: Under 9.5
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The Orioles and Blue Jays have played unders in 7 of the last 8 meetings and Toronto at home has gone 11 unders, 3 overs and 3 pushes in their last 17. Tillman and Cecil are the scheduled starters for this early afternoon start. Play the under for 1 unit as our free play for Saturday.
Alex Smart
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Edmonton Eskimos @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats
PICK: Edmonton Eskimos
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The Edmonton Eskimos enter into this contest against the Hamilton Tigers Cats looking to extend their current winning run to three games. Last week the Eskimos super star QB Ricky Ray was in top form against the Montreal Alouettes at Commonwealth Stadium in a 33-19 win. He completed 23 of 27 for 363 yards (three touchdowns, and is now converting on just under 70 percent of his pass attempts this season. The pivot owns the second-highest yardage total (1,374) in the league before Fridays action .Ray and his talented WR corps will once again be the key component in what I am betting will be another big effort. I know the Eskimos have shown some defensive lapses in their defensive secondary this season, but there are still some decent athletes back there, and I doubt very much the inexperienced Quinton Porter (Ti Cats QB) has the tools needed to take advantage of that perceived softness. Meanwhile, Hamilton's offense depends way to much on RB DeAndra Cobb (6.6 YPC) to help them move the ball, and with the Eskimos well aware of this, they will have some surprises in store for their opponents that will curtail their offensive attack. With that said, I am recommending we back the Eskimos to cover the number and garner the straight up win.
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Projected score: Edmonton 28 Hamilton 24
Dave Price
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1 Unit on LA Dodgers -1.5 +125
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I'll fade Kenshin Kawakami and the Braves here against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. The Braves are 0-4 in Kawakami's last 4 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the National League West, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. He's really been struggling with an ERA of 5.74 over his last 3 outings. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are 7-3 in Kershaw's last 10 starts and 12-4 in his last 16 starts as a home favorite. He has an outstanding ERA of 2.06 at home this season and I look for him to out duel Kawakami to help his team earn the victory Saturday.
Ross Benjamin
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Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1½
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The Dodgers have been money in the bank as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. I am not an advocate of the run line however this is an exception. The Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw has been virtually untouchable at home. The Braves starter Kawakami has been shaky in recent starts. Play on the Dodgers on the run line as my free selection of the night.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on Tigers -1.5 +105
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The Tigers have the big edge Saturday with ace Justin Verlander on the hill. He is a perfect 7-0 at home this season with an ERA of 1.66. Here's the key: Detroit is 22-4 in Verlander's L26 home starts against a losing team, winning by an average score of 6.6 to 3.4. Plus, he was a little bit off in the first inning of his last start so I expect him to come out extremely focused here. The Twins have struggled away from home all season while the Tigers have thrived at home. Back the Tigers here.
Rob Vinciletti
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Min Twins vs. Det Tigers
Play: Under 9
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The Twins are pitching newly aquired C.Pavano tonight as they just completed the trade with the Indians.Pavano has owned the Tigers this year.Three of his wins have come at the expense of Detroit.He has pitched over 23 innings allowing just five runs.The Twins have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games as a road dog in this range.Minnesota will struggle to score here tonight as well.They face Justin Verlander tonight.Verlander has one of the best home era in baseball at 1.66.The Tigers have gone under in 7 of his 10 home starts.Verlander is a mentally tough pitcher who allowed 5 runs in the first inning the other night.He wound up pitching 7 innings without allowing another run.This one stays under.
Chris Jordan
Cincinnati at SAN FRANCISCO -145
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Lay the chalk with the Giants, and list Barry Zito over Bronson Arroyo.
How in the hell the Reds broke out last night is beyond me, but I’m sure we’re going to see an angry bunch of Giants get revenge today, especially with red-hot Zito toeing the slab.
Last Sunday, against the defending champion Phillies, the southpaw left with a six-inning 7-3 lead, which was quite a change since Zito hadn't received more than five runs of support in any one of his previous 21 starts. However, in allowing two earned runs on six hits for his third win in as many outings, the Giants’ offense did its part to help secure the win. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in his last four starts, posting a 2.16 ERA along the way.
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He’ll be about for revenge after last year’s dismal showings against the Reds, as he was 0-2 in two starts with a 21.32 ERA.
Lay the home chalk in this one, as the Giants get revenge for last night, and Zito avenges last year’s debacles.
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2♦ GIANTS
Jeff Benton
N.Y. Mets at SAN DIEGO
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For Saturday’s free selection, I’ll make a rare play not only on the Padres, but with San Diego on the run line (-1½ runs) at home against the Mets.
I backed Padres rookie Mat Latos on Monday, and all the kid did was load the bases after the first three batters, only to settle down and pitch seven strong innings (for the second consecutive start). En route to the 4-2 victory over the Braves, Latos allowed just two runs on six hits and two walks. So through his first three big-league starts – against the Rockies, Nationals, Reds and Braves – Latos has given up a total of seven runs in 23 2/3 innings, good for a 2.66 ERA.
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But here’s the thing about those numbers: Of the seven runs he’s given up, five have been via the home run ball. Yes, five home runs in 23 2/3 innings can be disturbing, but he’s facing a Mets offense that ranks dead last this year in the long ball – we’re talking 67 homers through their first 108 games! In fact, the light-hitting Padres have 33 more homers than New York. Plus, don’t forget that Petco Park –especially at night – is a difficult venue in which to get the ball over the fence. So I’m not at all worried that Latos will get beat by the long ball. And if you take away the five home runs, Latos has allowed just 10 hits and six walks in his 23 2/3 innings (0.68 WHIP).
If that’s not enough of a reason to like the Padres and Latos tonight, this should be: regularly scheduled starter Mike Pelfrey has been scratched (he’s back home awaiting the birth of a child), leaving the Mets to turn to rookie reliever Bobby Parnell. Parnell has been serviceable in a middle-relief role for New York this year at 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA, but he brings a disturbing 1.60 WHIP (51 hits and 22 walks in 42 2/3 innings) into his first-ever big-league start tonight.
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Finally, the Padres have won the first two games of this series, which isn't surprising as they've owned this rivalry of late (11-3 in the last 14 meetings, including 7-0 in the last seven clashes in San Diego). Not only that but the Friars are actually playing decent ball, winning eight of their last 11 (the last seven of those wins being by multiple runs). Throw in a quality Padres bullpen (2.97 ERA at home), and I’ll turn a big favorite into a decent underdog by laying the 1½ runs with Latos on the home team.
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3♦ SAN DIEGO -1½
Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Mets at SAN DIEGO -150
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We did it again last night for free as Florida-Philadelphia stayed UNDER the posted total. That is now a 13-3-1 comp play run the last 17 days.
West coast action tonight, and it gets harder and harder to make a case for backing the injury-riddled New York Mets..so we won't!
New York took it on the chin again last night, as they have now lost 7 of their last 9 on their most recent tailspin, and will have the give the ball to Bobby Parnell who will come out of the bullpen to make his first start of the season.
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San Diego is on an 8-3 run their last 11 games, and it looks like they have found a keeper in Matt Latos, as the righty is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA the last 3 times he has toed the rubber.
The Padres are 4-1 in the season series this year with the Mets, and they have won the last 7 series meetings at Petco Park against New York, and 8 of the last 9 overall at home against the beleagured Metropolitans.
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Have to lay the home lumber, and back the Padres here.
Play on Diego.
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2♦ SAN DIEGO
Dominic Fazzini
Baltimore at TORONTO
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Blue Jays rookie Brett Cecil (5-1, 4.36 ERA) has been awesome since the All-Star break, going 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last four outings. The left-hander allowed four runs and six hits in seven innings last Saturday in a 6-5 victory over Oakland.
Cecil was sharp against the Orioles on July 10, giving up four hits and two walks in six scoreless innings.
He also has been solid in six home games (five starts) this season, going 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA over 29 2/3 innings.
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Baltimore will send 21-year-old right-hander Chris Tillman (0-0, 6.75) to the mound for his third major league start. The rookie allowed five runs and seven hits in six innings Monday at Detroit.
Tillman has given up eight runs and 14 hits in 10 2/3 innings.
Even with the Orioles' 7-5 win over Toronto on Friday, Baltimore is 6-15 since the All-Star break, and has not won consecutive road games since July 7 and 8 at Seattle.
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With Cecil gaining confidence on the mound and Tillman still trying to establish himself, I think Toronto is going to run away with this one. Take the Blue Jays on the run line.
3♦ TORONTO -1½