Karl Garrett
Texas at LA ANGELS
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No play last night on the G-Man's comp play release, as Carlos Zambrano was scratched from the start in Colorado. Still, 20-9 the last 29 days with my free play selections.
Looking at that Texas-LA contest for the late day card, and I like the runs to pile up once again today between the clubs.
Last night the teams combined for 17 runs in the easiest OVER of your life, and it will be more of the same today.
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Kevin Millwood makes his first start of the month, and he just hasn't fooled the Angels lately, as his last 30 innings of work against them has seen 21 earned runs cross the plate.
The Angels counter with Jered Weaver whose last 3 starts have seen 12 runs score in 18 innings of work. Throw in the fact Weaver has surrendered 16 runs over his last 25 innings of work against the Rangers, and you have a hitter's delight going today at the Big "A".
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3 of the 4 season series meetings in Anaheim have played HIGH, this one does as well.
1♦ OVER
Matt Rivers
For Saturday lay the wood with the Padres.
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This is such not a me play and I can't believe that I am pulling the trigger on it, even with it being the smallest play that I pretty much own, but the Mets are in such a dreadful spot I can't help but go against them as the New Yorkers winning this game is very close to being out of the question.
The Padres are not a good team as I have been saying for awhile but I do have to admit they are improving as these young players like Will Venable, Kyle Blanks and others are showing a little something to help out Adrian Gonzalez. San Diego is also pretty much up against a guy in Bobby Parnell who will go four innings max today.
The Mets are such a dreadfully beat up team that they are forced to start a reliever here in Parnell and a mediocre one at that. The guy's arm is not stretched out and therefore the visitors are in an almost unwinnable spot today. With a lineup that is decimated and a starting pitcher that has pretty much no shot to be in long enough for a chance at a win I just do not see how this day can prove to be fruitful for the Mets. It's not like they're relievers are any good and will come in and be lights out.
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Mat Latos is on the bump for the Padres and this young kid has done nothing but look very good so far in his young career. The 21 year old is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.66 after seven quality innings against Chipper Jones and the Braves last time out.
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Laying money like this with what is still a bad team in these Friars is not the key to success at all but the Mets are pretty much a dead team once again and will be ridiculously hard pressed to win this game.
1♦ Padres
Tony Weston
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I nailed my seventh straight Comp Play winner yesterday as the Reds and Giants cruise easily Over the Total. I'm making it 8 straight tonight as I'm taking the Over on the Red Sox-Yankees game.
The Total for this game is set at around 10 runs and these two will blow right past that.
Coming into this game the Over has been very prevalent for both teams. The Over has come in 8 of the Red Sox last 11 games as they’ve Totaled, on average, more than 12 1/2 runs per game.
The Yankees, on the other hand, have seen the Over go 5-1-1 their last seven games as they’ve Totaled, on average, more than 13 runs per game in that stretch.
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Also consider that the Over has come in 5 of the last 7 games started by the Red Sox Clay Buchholz and it is 6-2-1 the last nine games started by Yankees scheduled starter CC Sabathia.
The teams have averaged 10 1/2 runs the first two games of this series and tonight will be no different as the Over comes through in this one.
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3♦ RED SOX-YANKEES OVER
DUNKEL
Chicago Cubs at Colorado
The Cubs look to bounce back from yesterday's 6-2 loss and build on their 9-2 record in their last 11 games after allowing 5 or more runs on the previous game. Chicago is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135).
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Game 951-952: Cincinnati at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.521; San Francisco (Zito) 15.515
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.697; Houston (Hampton) 15.871
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over
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Game 955-956: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 17.050; Washington (Mock) 15.921
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Over
Game 957-958: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (West) 15.183; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.197
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-215); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-215); Under
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Game 959-960: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.948; Pittsburgh (Morton) 13.392
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-215); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-215); Over
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.653; Colorado (Marquis) 14.505
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+135); Under
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Game 963-964: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Parnell) 14.550; San Diego (Latos) 15.633
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-155); Over
Game 965-966: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Kawakami) 16.326; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.169
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+160); Over
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Game 967-968: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 13.736; Toronto (Cecil) 15.641
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-175); Under
Game 969-970: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 16.341; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.859
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+180); Over
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Game 971-972: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 16.482; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.465
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 15.201; Detroit (Verlander) 16.418
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Detroit (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-210); Over
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Game 975-976: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.630; White Sox (Torres) 16.563
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Under
Game 977-978: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mortensen) 14.190; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.447
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 979-980: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.232; Seattle (Snell) 14.546
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Over
CFL
Winnipeg at Calgary
The Bluebombers face the 2-3 Stampeders looking to build in their 5-1-1 record in their last 7 games against teams with a losing SU record. Winnipeg is the pick (+14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Calgary favored by just 8. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+14 1/2).
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Game 405-406: Edmonton at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 111.722; Hamilton 107.713
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 4; 43 1/2
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 1; 52
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-1); Under
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Game 407-408: Winnipeg at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 107.123; Calgary 115.335
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 8; 57 1/2
Vegas Line: Calgary by 14 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+14 1/2); Over
WNBA
Indiana at Phoenix
The Fever are coming off a 76-67 victory over Chicago and look to build on their 9-3 ATS record in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Indiana is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by just 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4).
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Game 601-602: Chicago at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 109.423; Atlanta 113.478
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 163 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5 1/2); Over
Game 603-604: Indiana at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.613; Phoenix 115.873
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4; 175
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Over
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Game 605-606: New York at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.333; Seattle 113.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 8; 141
Dunkel Pick: New York (+8); Under
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
306 - 200 run 60 % 53-29 run here
Sat Tampa Bay
8)
GREG SHAKER
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Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Play: Over 9
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I know that I have said this about a Gazillion times, but I will say it again. The Houston Astros are just an average team when it comes to scoring runs, but they do hit lefties very well and are one of the very best in either league. Certainly the Brewers thrower is very hittable tonight. He has not performed well away from home this year especially with a sky high ERA of 7.39. His last 3 pitched games have been 3 of his worst this year and has allowed 13 runs over this span, and guess what? All of those games went OVER the Total very easily. He does have control problems inside and outside the K Zone and I suspect that will continue today verses a team that has hit him well and has patient hitters stepping to the plate. While Hampton has had some success facing Milwaukee in his career, his career is not functioning well right now. His only start verses them this year was a poor one and save for his last start verses the Giants, his recent numbers are that of a slow pitch womens softball league. This guy saw 22 runners fly by the plate over his last 19 innings prior to the SF Contest and I doubt that his problems are fixed for good. Velocity has always been important to Hampton and when he does not have it, he struggles. His Ball movement is such that he needs to chunk the ball toward the plate fastly. While he did manage to get 6 innings under his belt verses the Giants, he also worked out of trouble a lot with 8 hits allowed, and 2 BB's. That is not so stellar and even though Milwaukee is a light hitting lefty team, I think they will find a way to solve Mr Hampton. Milwaukee's Bullpen has gone to the Dogs recently and while they were Top 8 Bullpen most of the year, they have slipped greatly over the last 15 games. Houston's is pretty much in the same boat. I think that this is a high percentage opportunity in Houston today for this total to go well over 9 runs.
Jim Feist
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A's at Royals
Pick: Under
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These are not the worst offenses in baseball, but they are two of the worst in the AL. Oakland is 19th in the league in runs scored, KC is 27th. Oakland lefty Brett Anderson is a talented young arm, with a 3.98 ERA his last three starts, fanning 23 in just 20 innings. Royals ace Zack Greinke (10-7) goes here, with a sizzling 2.36 ERA. Don't look for many runs, play the A's/Royals Under the total.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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The Rockies (60-49) avoided a third straight loss by winning 6-2 in Friday’s opener against the Cubs for their 15th straight victory over a Central division opponent since losing at Houston on June 3. The Rockies recorded 13 hits against four Chicago relievers, and getting into the Cubs’ bullpen will play into their favor as this series continues. Though he is 4-3 with an 8.06 ERA in eight starts against Colorado, Ryan Dempster is a deplorable 0-2 with a 22.00 ERA in three at Coors Field. Dempster will oppose former teammate Marquis (12-7, 3.49), who allowed one run in seven innings to earn a 5-2 victory at Wrigley Field on April 15 in his first start since the Cubs traded him. Good value on a superior pitcher; look for COLORADO to improve to 43-31 (+11.7 units) vs. right-handed starters!
Drew Gordon
Milwaukee at HOUSTON +105
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Now on a 37-26 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including Florida (+135) over Philadelphia 3-2 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking
at the Milwaukee/Houston match up...
Coming into this contest with the exact same record (54-55), I think its safe to say both teams here lack consistency. But that being said, there's no question the Astros play better ball at Minute Maid Park, and that also goes for tonight's pitching match up.
Lefty Mike Hampton gets the nod for Houston, and one start removed from his debacle at Wrigley, he shuts down the Giants, allowing 1 earned over 6 innings Monday! I know full well critics of this play will tell you that he's posted a 5.40 ERA against the Brewers this season, which is true. However, both starts were early-on, and we didn't see Hampton best stuff until Late-May. Also, the Astros lefty has been especially tough at home, going 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA over his L5 at Minute Maid Park!
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Opposing Hampton is the Brewers lefty Manny Parra, who pitched relatively well at the Dodgers in his last start, but will be tested early and often tonight. The Astros prefer to hit lefties, especially at home, where they average 4.6 runs per game in that spot, batting .275 in the process! His career 3-3 record and 4.88 ERA against the Astros is nothing to write home about either! Parra has been a disaster on the road this season, going 4-5 with a 7.39 ERA, and I expect more of the same tonight.
Bottom line, after a nice win over the Brew Crew Friday, I'm looking for the Astros to take advantage of a solid edge on the mound tonight. Manny Parra has been nothing but a liability on the highway, while Hampton's best stuff comes at home. One final note, while the Astros bullpen hasn't exactly been sharp, the Brewers 'pen takes the cake, posting an ugly 7.69 ERA over their L3 games. In the end, the 'Stros protect their house Saturday night!
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Take Houston behind Hampton over Milwaukee and Parra in this MLB match up.
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2♦ HOUSTON
Tom Stryker
COLORADO with Marquis (-144) over Chicago
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Considering Colorado has dropped 11 of its last 16 to Chicago, I don't think the Rockies will be satisfied with last night's 6-2 victory over the Cubbies. Colorado is currently tied with San Francisco for the top spot in the National League Wild Card standings and the Rockies need all the wins they can get to keep pace.
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Chicago will send veteran right hander Ryan Dempster to the mound. Since coming off the DL, Dempster has made two starts including a gem in his last outing. At Florida, Ryan was touched for no earned runs and three hits in 6.0 innings of work. Unfortunately, Coors Field has not been kind to No. 46. Dempster has toed the rubber seven times in Colorado and owns a miserable 0-2 record and a lofty 15.23 ERA!
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The Rockies will counter with former Chicago pitcher Jason Marquis. Overall this season, Marquis has been solid for Colorado allowing 56 earned runs and 137 hits in 144.1 frames. That's good enough for a 12-7 record and a solid 3.49 ERA. Since getting drilled for seven earned runs and nine hits in 3.1 innings in an ugly 11-3 loss to the Angles, No. 21 has been nails in his last six starts allowing only nine earned runs and 32 hits in 44.0 innings. That breaks down to a stellar 1.84 ERA!
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The angles and trends work against the Cubs here too. Chicago has slipped in 37 of its last 52 priced as a road underdog including 13 of Dempster's last 15 starts priced as a pup on foreign soil. Meanwhile, on the homefront, the Rockies have won 19 of their last 26 in their own backyard and 40 of their last 57 overall. Take Colorado with listed pitcher Marquis.
Bob Harvey
Texas Rangers vs. LAA Angels
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Shaky starting pitchers, potent offenses and bad bullpens all add up to an easy Over this afternoon at the Big A in Anaheim when the Angels and Rangers tangle.
As an old radio DJ used to say “The Hits Just Keep On Coming.” He was talking about music but that phrase could well apply to any game involving the Angels and Rangers.
Josh Hamilton
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The two teams combined for 17 runs and 27 hits last night with the Rangers winning 11-6. Texas hit five home runs in the game en route to their eighth win in 10 series meetings with the Halos this year. In those 10 games, the Rangers are averaging 6.9 runs and are batting .295.
Kevin Millwood, who has missed his last two starts because of a strained gluteus, goes for Texas. Millwood is 9-7 on the year and 1-0 against the Angels. He’ll be opposed by Jered Weaver who is 11-3 overall and 1-1 against the Rangers with a 5.75 ERA. Don’t let Weaver’s record fool you though. Since the All-Star break, the former Long Beach State star has a 6.95 ERA and could have easily lost those four starts if not for the Angel offense. In addition the Over is 3-0 in Weaver’s last three outings. In their last head-to-head matchup on July 6, Weaver got the win over Millwood as the Angels prevailed 9-4, yet another Over.
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After a torrid end to July and a fast start in August, the LA offense has cooled a bit. Still the Over is playing to a blistering 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and 64-38-5 on the season. At the friendly confines of the Big A, Los Halos are 33-18-2 to the high side. The Angels are still wearing out opposing pitchers hitting right-handers at a .314 clip and lefties at .321. With this being a day game in Anaheim, the balls figure to carry even better than they did Friday night when the two teams combined for six home runs.
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In their last six series meetings, the Over has played at a clip of 5-1. The Angels bullpen, as shown in Friday’s night loss, is still one of the worst in baseball. They’ll need to keep the offense going if they’re to hold off the second-place Rangers, Pitching is the big concern of these two teams, not offense. And that’s just fine if you’re making a play on the Over today.
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Pick: Rangers-Angels Over 9
Craig Trapp
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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
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Boston is struggling right now and the NYY have the best record over the last 2 months. Don't fight the urge to overthink this game. Sabathia goes for the NYY and even though he has not been quite as sharp as last year he is the king of battling and getting hitters out even when he does not have his best stuff. Buchholtz goes for Boston and hopes to have a much better outing than he had against Baltimore in his last start. In that start he gave up 7 runs and 4 walks in only 4 innings. Not good coming in against the best lineup in baseball. The NYY will take advantage of a young pitcher and a tired bullpen and score at least 7 runs today. Boston bats have been silenced in the last 4 games and Sabathia will keep it that way today. SCORE NYY 7 - BOS 2
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: San Diego over New York Mets
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The Padres have won 10 of 13 in the series and 6 straight in San Diego. Plus, they show at 6-1 versus a losing baseball team. San Diego will use young right-handed Matt Latos (3-1, 2.66), who the Mets have never faced. In his last outing on August 3rd Latos defeated the Braves earning a quality start, while catching raves from baseball scouts in attendance. Finally, if umpire Lance Barksdale is behind “home plate†the home team has won 4 straight.
Scott Delaney
Six of 10 comp winners thanks to that huge underdog play on the Indians last night. Ready for another one? Take the Rangers against the Angels in Anaheim.
Be sure to list both pitchers - Kevin Millwood and Jered Weaver.
Did you see how the Rangers jumped out to a 9-1 lead on Friday and cruised to an 11-6 victory? Well, that marked Texas’ 13th win in its last 19 overall, while it is now 10-2 in its last 12 against opponents that have a winning record. And if you take into consideration Millwood is in revenge against the Halos and Weaver for an earlier-season clash, it’s easy to see why I love this game.
Though the Halos are arguably the hottest team in baseball, Texas is 8-2 against them this season and 10-3 the last 13 times they’ve met, dating back to last season. The Rangers have won six of the last eight meetings in Anaheim.
Save a July 26 start at Kansas City, where he was removed after two scoreless innings with a pulled muscle in his backside, Millwood has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts and 13 of his 21 starts this season. Plus, the Rangers are 7-3 in Millwood’s last 10 starts.
I’ve been noticing a bit of decline in Weaver’s game, as he’s allowed at least four runs in seven straight starts. Last Sunday against the Twins he allowed four runs in 6-1/3 innings, and he now has a 6.96 ERA in his last four starts.
Sorry Angels fans, I scored with a bigger dog last night on the Indians; tonight it’s the Rangers.
1♦ RANGERS
Vernon Croy
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
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We are actually getting great value here Saturday night with the Rays who are averaging 6.0 rpg over their last 7 games. The Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games after a loss and James Shields (6-8, 3.75 ERA) has owned the Mariners with an ERA of just 1.95 over 5 career starts against them. Shields pitched solid in his last outing allowing just 2 hits over 7.3 innings and I look for him to have plenty of run support tonight. Ian Snell (0-0, 3.00) pitched solid in his first start for the Mariners since being acquired from the Pirates but he has struggled overall this season with an ERA of 5.19 and I look for the Rays to hit him hard tonight. The Rays are 11-2 in their last 13 games played on Saturday and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a favorite while the Mariners are just 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.