LT Profits
Baltimore at Toronto
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The Baltimore Orioles took the series opener from the Toronto Blue Jays north of the border last night, but we look for the Blue Jays to bounce back today with a multiple-run win of their own.
Brett Cecil is 5-1 for the Jays, and although he has a rather high 4.36 ERA, he is pitching his best ball of the season right now. Cecil has allowed a total of just five runs and 21 hits over his last four starts, covering 27 innings. He tossed a gem vs. these Orioles in Baltimore during this hot streak, when he allowed only four hits in six scoreless innings on July 10.
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Young Chris Tillman looked very good in his Major League debut, but he regressed badly in his second starts vs. the Detroit Tigers, allowing five earned runs and 10 baserunners in six innings. Tillman may have been rushed to the majors by a Baltimore team that is going nowhere this season, and while he may benefit from this experience in the long run, he will probably continue to take some lumps in the short term, especially when pitching on the road.
Considering that the Orioles are still 18-37 on the road this year while getting outscored by a huge -1.65 runs per game even after winning here last night, we look for a return to normalcy today.
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Pick: Blue Jays -1.5
Tom Freese
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Tampa Bay at Seattle
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Tampa Bay is 46-11 as favorites of -151 to -200 and they are 11-2 their last 13 Saturday games. The Rays are 4-1 off a loss and they are 8-3 with James Shields on the mound if they are off a loss in their last game. Seattle is 30-61 after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game and they are 3-8 their last games as underdogs. The Mariners are 2-6 as underdogs of +110 to +150. Ian Snell gets the ball for the Mariners tonight. He will be in over his head against the potent Rays offense. PLAY ON TAMPA BAY -
Spartan
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NY Mets at San Diego
Play: San Diego
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I am heading west to suggest a wager on the Padres as they continue their series with the Mets. Padres have been playing spirited ball lately, admirable for a club in the second tier. Will be a battle of two young arms tonight as Bud Black gives the ball to 21 year old rookie Mat Latos, 3-1 2.66. Latos has been impressive in his initial season and last time out was no exception as he defeated the Braves allowing 2 runs in the 7 frames he worked. Mets were going with Mike Pelfrey but he will be scratched as his wife is in New York giving birth to their first child, therefore the Mets are turning to rookie Bobby Parnell to make his first career start. I am playing the Padres here tonight to get it done behind Latos guys.
Michael Cannon
Milwaukee at HOUSTON +105
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That’s two free winners in a row after the Cardinals win on the run line last night over the Pirates!
Take the Astros for the home win over the Brewers.
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Houston will start Mike Hampton, who is 7-8 with a 5.14 ERA on the year. But the left-hander has been solid at home recently, going 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA in his last five starts at Minute Maid Park.
Hampton is also 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 13 career starts against the Brewers.
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Milwaukee will counter with Manny Parra, who has won all three of his decisions since the All-Star break. But a pitcher who is just 6-8 with a 6.33 ERA on the year is bound to slide back after that recent run of success, so look for the Astros to hit him hard tonight.
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Take Houston as they grab the home win.
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3♦ HOUSTON
Game Time Sports Advisors
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Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Under 7.5
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Grienke should be able to completely dominate this weak A's team. KC has a little pop in their lineup, but this should be a 3-0 type game.
LARRY NESS
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Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
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The Rangers finished in second-place last year in the AL West but ended the season 21 games behind the Angels. However, the Rangers are making a race out of that division this year, as with last night's 11-6 win, the Rangers are within 3 1/2 games of the Angels for the division's top spot. Texas has dominated Los Angeles so far in 2009, winning EIGHT of the 10 meetings between the two teams, batting .295 while averaging 6.9 RPG. Mike Scioscia's team has had its problems this year inside the AL West. His team has captured the AL West in FOUR of the last five seasons but the Angels are just 14-18 vs AL West opponents in 2009. Will anything change today? I think so. Jeff Weaver gets the call for LA and despite the fact that's he's posted a 6.95 ERA in his four starts since the All-Star break, the Angels have won each one behind what's been an explosive offense. Weaver's season on a whole has been very good, as he enters 11-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts, as the team is 16-6 in his 22 starts (have won 12 of his last 14!). He's really struggled on the road in 2009 with a 5.25 ERA (team has managed to go 6-4) but he hasn't needed all that much support at home, where his ERA is 2.68 (he's 7-1 and the team 10-2). Kevin Millwood starts for the Rangers. Millwood won 18 games for the Braves two different times but has never done much since leaving Atlanta after the 2002 season, His last two seasons in Texas has seen him post ERAs of 5.16 and 5.07. His 2009 season has actually been quite good, as he's 9-7 with a 3.39 ERA in 21 starts. A strained gluteus muscle forced him out of his last start (July 26) after two scoreless innings but he says he "ready to go" here. However, while Millwood has been outstanding at home (2.53 ERA in going 7-1 / team is 9-2), he's got a 4.41 road ERA and is 2-6 (team is 3-7). Take the Angels in this one.
Craig Davis
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Tonight's free play (13 winners in 18 chances and 17 winners in 23 chances, by the way) is on the Yankees, yet again, on the run line, to blow the Red Sox out of the water. After last night's marathon, the Red Sox have to be doubting themselves a little. They've now fallen 4.5 games behind the Yankees and are in danger of falling further when the Yankees win today. All the pressure in the world right now is on the Sox, so it doesn't help that they're sending Clay Buchholz to the hill... the same Buchholz that was pounded for nine hits and seven earned runs over four innings of work in Baltimore. With the Yankees struggling to make contact last night, Buchholz is the perfect recipe for a long night of not hitting. Sabathia, on the other hand, has been waiting to get another shot at the Red Sox and prove his dominance once again. CC went seven innings in his last meeting with Boston, allowing 4 earned runs and six hits in a 4-3 Yankees loss. Today, revenge is on his mind and I have a feeling you're going to see one of his best performances to date. Take the Yanks to win by at least two.
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2♦ NY YANKEES -1½
Jake Timlin
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Take the Giants today minus the run line as they bounce back big time against the Reds.
Ugly loss last night as the Reds rallied for the major upset, but no worries here as I expect for the Giants to rebound big time behind Barry Zito who is finally starting to live up to his contract.
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Helping the Giants bounce back today will be Zito who at 2-0 with an ERA of 1.93 over his last three starts is pitching his best baseball since moving across the bay.
Meanwhile, for the Reds despite winning their last two games they still suck due to losing 14 of their last 17 games and with Arroyo 0-2 with an ERA of 5.30 over his last three starts I expect for Cincinnati resort back to losing today.
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Simple, minus last night’s loss the Giants are great at home and it will show today as they bounce back with a blowout win.
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1♦ San Francisco Giants -1½
THE SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Milwaukee is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Houston is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Pick: Milwaukee
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: Seattle
Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
Pick: Atlanta
EZWINNERS
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -143
Ex Pittsburgh Pirate Ian Snell makes the start for the Mariners in this game. Snell pitched well in his first start for Seattle, but he is what I call a "AAAA" pitcher. He's too good for AAA but not quite good enough for the major leagues and his numbers this season will attest to this. Snell was 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA in fifteen starts for the Pirates before he was demoted to AAA Indianapolis, where he was 2-2 with a 0.96 ERA in six starts before the trade. Tampa Bay's bats have came to life recently and I expect the Rays to get some good swings in this game. The Rays starting pitcher James Shields has now gone eight straight starts without a victory and is 0-2 with six no decisions over that span. But Shields is coming off of a very strong performance in his last start after taking a no-hitter into the eight inning on Sunday in his last start against the Kansas City Royals. The Rays are 16-4 in Shields last twenty starts as a favorite of -$140 or more and I look for them to pick up the win here. Play on Tampa Bay.
Lee Kostroski
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
Justin Verlander has incredible numbers at home this season, featuring a 1.66 ERA and a 7-0 record. The Tigers are 9-1 in his home starts and 15-8 overall this season behind him. The Twins managed to win a game that Verlander started at the Metrodome but it was hardly his fault as he allowed just five hits and produced 13 strikeouts for a no-decision. The Detroit bullpen has also greatly out-pitched the Minnesota counterpart in recent weeks, featuring a 3.99 bullpen ERA in the last ten games. Minnesota has a 6.21 ERA from relievers in that span and they just optioned one of there more reliable relievers in R. A. Dickey to make room for Carl Pavano.
Pavano has had a very respectable season for the Indians and he was just picked up by the Twins and will be used right away. Pavano owns an impressive strikeout-to-walk ratio but he also can be hit easily as opponents own a .285 batting average against him this season. Pavano has allowed 23 runs in his last four road starts and his ERA away from home is 5.50. The Minnesota bullpen is very thin and Detroit is batting .273 in the last ten games.
The Twins have now lost five of the last six games and appear close to completely falling out of the playoff race. This is a critical series for both teams but the edge should lie severely with the Tigers. The Twins are 22-32 on the road this season and even though they have had some success against Detroit, only two games have been played at Comerica this season between these teams. The Tigers are 34-17 at home for the year, tying for the fewest home losses in the AL and Minnesota is a team that continues to be overrated despite struggling on the field.
Vegas Experts
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Detroit’s Justin Verlander has been nearly unbeatable at Comerica Park as his team has won nine of his 10 starts there this season. The right-hander also has a 1.66 ERA in these contests. He will be playing a Twins team that struggles on the road. They are 22-33 on the year and scoring just 4.4 runs per contest. Minnesota will go with new acquisition Carl Pavano who has not been the same since his days in Florida. Go with Detroit here.
Play on: Detroit
Tommy Gill
Rays –135 for 2 units
Today we have a Tampa team that should have won their game yesterday in Seattle with them giving up a 2 run HR in the bottom of the 10th inning when they where up one with 2 outs and 2 strikes from a guy that hit his only 2nd homer of the year. The Pitching match up in this game is Shields (6-8 3.75 ERA) vs. Snell (0-0 3.00 ERA). Snell is making his 2nd start for Seattle this season and after getting him in a trade from Pittsburgh whom had him in the minors. Snell has been a gas can of sorts for years after the trade deadline having one of the worst records in MLB in the last 3 seasons. Shields for Tampa has been a component of some very bad luck this year and with him pitching very well he has not had a decision in over a month and a half. In his 5 career games against Seattle he has given up 8 ER total and I believe that they have a great spot today with a Tampa team that is playing good ball recently to take advantage of the Yankees and Boston series to get closer to the wild card or division lead.
Nelly
Houston + over Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 6-12 when Manny Parra starts and although he has picked up wins in two of his last three outings he has not pitched well. Parra has allowed nine walks, 27 hits, and 13 runs in just 19 innings of work and he faces a Houston team that is not going away. The Astros have been pegged for a fall in the closing months but Houston is still sticking around and finding ways to win games. Mike Hampton pitched well in his last start and he should be in a favorable situation facing a team that is batting .151 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching. Houston is the third city on a long western road trip for the Brewers and the team is showing signs of wear especially after an emotional series in Los Angeles. Parra and a recently terrible Brewers bullpen can not be relied on and Houston is worth a look as a home underdog.
Jorge Gonzalez
Play Seattle +135 for 2 units
The Seattle Mariners will be looking to to win their fourth straight game at home after they came back from being down by four runs and won the game in the 11th inning. The Tampa Bay Rays have had trouble winning on the road this season with an away record of 24-31. The Rays will be sending Jamie Shields to the mound to face newly acquired Ian Snell. Snell will be making his second start for the Mariners after coming over in a trade with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Rays will hope to give Shields some run supports after the youngster had a no-hitter going in the eight inning last week and still ended up losing 2-0. On the season, Shields is only receiving 4.0 runs of support while receiving just 2.7 runs of support over his last three games. The Mariners have won six of their last 10 games. Seattle continues to play well at home and Shields frustration on the season has to be at it's peak after losing despite a great performance. Take the Mariners.