MTi Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are 4-0 since May 26, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $545 The Blue Jays are 0-5 since June 13, 2009 as a home favorite after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $690 when playing against. Consider a play on Baltimore.
Stephen Nover
Diamondbacks at Nationals
Play: Over 8.5
Analysis: Anytime Garrett Mock takes the mound a strong look to the over must be taken. The over certainly fits in this matchup.
Mock is a candidate for worst starter in the majors. He's 0-2 with a 6.66 ERA in his last four starts since his most recent minor league call-up. His ERA on the season is even worse at 6.75. The scary thing is Mock's ERA could be even worse as six unearned runs occurred on his watch in 30 2/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks are averaging 6.2 runs in their last seven games. Mark Reynolds has nine home runs in his last 11 games. So the Diamondbacks sure figure to get to Mock, which puts the Nationals' horrendous and fatigued bullpen into play. Only closer Mike MacDougal has been solid, but he's not going to be able to pitch after working five of the past six days, including getting a hard save in 1 2/3 innings last night throwing 31 pitches.
Dan Haren is going to have to be on his "A" game for the under to have a chance here. I don't see that. The Nationals are averaging seven runs in their last seven games. Ryan Zimmeran is batting .442 in his last 14 games.
Haren's history is to start fast and cool off as the long season takes its toll. He's 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts, giving up three homers in his last 17 innings.
In two of those three starts, he gave up a combined nine earned runs and 16 hits in 12 innings pitched against the weak-hitting Pirates and weak-hitting Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
Evan Altemus
Chicago at Colorado
Play: : Colorado -144
Profile: Colorado won last night, and I expect them to do the same tonight. The Cubs haven't been a good road team over the last few seasons, and they are only 3-4 on their current road trip. The Rockies Jason Marquis has been very consistent this season, while Cubs starter Ryan Dempster enters this game in poor current form. The Cubs simply cannot hit on the road, while the Rockies offense is dominating at home. In addition, Chicago's bullpen was heavily used last night because of the short outing from Sean Marshall. I look for the Rockies to hammer Dempster and the Cubs pen.
2 UNIT SELECTION
John Ryan
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Chicago Cubs
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Cubs as the face the Rockies set to start at 8:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-25 making 27.2 units since 1997. Play on road dogs with a money line of +100 to +150 and is a below average NL hitting team batting =4.50 and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season. Cubs starter is coming off a strong start at Florida where he pitched 6 innings allowed ZERO earned runs and just 3 hits. Cubs skipper Piniella is in a strong role noting a 53-34 (+25.8 Units) mark against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs in all games he has managed since 1997. Dempster is a solid pitcher especially when runners are in scoring position. He has allowed a 195 BA with runners in scoring position (RISP) and 2 outs this season. With runners on base he has allowed a 238 BA. Rockies starter Marquis dealt with blisters in his last star August 2nd and they more than likely will affect this start. He is not a truly dominating type of starter throwing FB 68%, a slider 17%, mixing in change and curve 8%. Batters are hitting his FB at a 288 clip and the Cubs will have success against him tonight. Take the Cubs.
Wunderdog
Cincinnati at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -150
The San Francisco Giants are in playoff contention for a few reasons. One of them is the fact that they have been great at home, entering here with a 36-17 mark on the season. They have also begun to get long awaited dividends from Barry Zito, who suddenly has regained the form he had in Oakland. Zito carries a 1.93 ERA into this one over his last three starts, and has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts. That leaves the Reds with some problems, as they are second from the bottom in run production in all of baseball against lefthand starters at just 3.8 runs per game. That puts a lot of pressure on Bronson Arroyo, who has had a very sub-par season, entering here with an ERA of over five runs a game. I like the Giants to win this one.
ATS Consultants
Baltimore Orioles/Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5
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A battle of two rookies today at Rogers Centre as the Orioles look to take their second straight against the Jays.
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Chris Tillman (0-0, 6.75) is one of the top pitching prospects in Baseball and should be a star one day. His first two big league starts however, have not been great. He’s allowed 14 hits in just 10 2/3 innings pitched with 4 walks and 7 K’s. He’s a huge part of the Orioles future, which finally looks bright after years of losing.
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Brett Cecil (5-1, 4.36) has done a nice job in spots this year for the Jays. The rookie lefty out of the University of Maryland was not expected to help the Jays much this year, but has been thrust into the rotation after injuries to Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan. Cecil did struggle in his last start, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 6 innings against the A’s last week.
Tampa Bay Rays/Seattle Mariners OVER 8
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After a wild one last night, the Rays and Mariners battle in game 2 of a three game set. James Shields takes on Ian Snell as two teams desperately holding on to playoff dreams go at it.
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Shields (6-8, 3.75) has been one of those “every other start” guys for a while now. His last start was brilliant, going 7 1/3 allowing one run on two hits. However, his previous start he was tagged for 9 hits and 5 runs in just 5 innings. The trend continues farther back, and he’s due for a bad one tonight. Shields is 0-2 with a 5.23 ERA in his last 5 starts.
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Snell (0-0, 3.00) will be making his second start as a Mariner, and his first at home. Oddly enough, 3 of his last 4 starts when he was with the Pirates came against American League teams in interleague play. He’s 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA in his last 5 starts combined as a Pirate and a Mariner. Clearly, he is part of the M’s future as they’ve already traded Jarrod Washburn to Detroit and Erik Bedard has probably pitched his last game as a Mariner due to injury and his impending free agency.
Scott Rickenbach
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Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Under 8.5 SPORTSBETTING
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The Dodgers are 29-19 to the under this season when playing against a team who has a winning record. The Braves are 41-30 to the under in night games. The Braves have been going over the total often in recent games but they are 4-1 to the under in the last five starts that Kenshin Kawakami has made. Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers had a rough start in his most recent outing but Los Angeles had gone 7-4 to the under in his 11 prior starts. His biggest problem in his most recent start was his command and that led to too many walks as well as a high pitch count. Look for the southpaw to bounce right back in this start.
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Even with his last start being a rough one at home, Kershaw’s numbers at Dodger Stadium this season are sparkling. The left-hander has a 2.06 ERA and he’s held opponents to a .201 batting average. Another big edge for Kershaw here is that he’s never faced the Braves in his career. Atlanta won’t have a single player in their lineup tonight that has a hit against Kershaw in their career and only three players on their current roster have ever had an at-bat against him. The Dodgers sticks are also quite likely to be quiet tonight. The Braves Kawakami has allowed three earned runs or less in 16 of his 20 starts this season. Also, like Kershaw, he has a big match-up edge. The right-hander is facing a lineup that has never seen him before. All these first looks for batters in a night game in a pitchers park spells pitchers duel as these teams put last night’s crazy finish behind them and we see a return to “normal” at Dodger Stadium. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Los Angeles on Saturday night.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on San Diego Padres
Play Against Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY METS)
poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start, on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors
61-21 over the last 5 seasons.
74.4% (31.4 units)
Everth Cabrera hit a grand slam in the bottom of the ninth inning on Friday night to give the Padres a 6-2 win over the Mets.
The Padres pulled out the win as -150 home favorites in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the nights posted total (7.5).
Will Venable and Chase Headley also drove in runs in that win for San Diego. David Wright had three hits and an RBI in the loss for the Mets.
San Diego is 8-3 last 11 games. The Padres are 4-1 in the season series this year with the Mets, and they have won the last 7 series meetings at home against New York, and 8 of the last 9 overall at home against the Mets. The New York Mets have lost 7 of their last 10 games overall and have lost 11 of their last 15 road games.
San Diego is 18-8 versus New York at Petco Park since it opened in 2004 and hasn't lost a home set to the Mets since 2002.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 (+4.1 Units) against NY METS this season