Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes in A.L. Central action, as I’ll lay the price with the Tigers against the Twins.
Detroit pounded the Twins 7-3 last night and has now won four in a row, six of seven and 17 of 25. And going back to June 2, the Tigers are 16-2 at Comerica Park, pushing their home record to 31-12 for the season.
Going the opposite direction are the Twins, who have dropped three in a row, five of their last six and 11 of their last 16. Lately, Minnesota’s pitching has been the main culprit, surrendering 42 runs during the ongoing 1-5 slump.
Speaking of crappy pitching, Twins right-hander Nick Blackburn is 1-5 with a 9.28 ERA in seven starts since June 1 (Minnesota also dropped his one no-decision). On Sunday at home, Blackburn got torched for seven runs on nine hits and two walks in 6 1/3 innings, losing 7-4 to Tampa Bay. And on the road this year, Blackburn has been a disaster, going 2-5 with a 9.40 ERA and allowing nine home runs in 37 1/3 innings.
Like Blackburn, Detroit right-hander Jeremy Bonderman has struggled lately (1-2, 8.27 ERA), but he’s been solid at home this year (3.52 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). And that includes Sunday’s 8-1 loss to Cliff Lee and the Mariners (Bonderman gave up seven runs in five innings; prior to that he had allowed only 11 earned runs in 41 home innings).
The home team has dominated this rivalry this year, going 8-2 in 10 meetings, and going back to last year, the host is 14-5 when the Tigers and Twins hook up.
4♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
Today, I'm coming with a FREE winner on the Twins as they take on the Tigers in Detroit in Game 2 of this series.
Even with the loss on Friday, the Twins have still taken five of the last seven meetings with the Tigers and I expect them to get today’s victory behind Nick Blackburn (7-6, 6.00 ERA).
Blackburn has already faced the Tigers twice this season and gotten the win both times, pitching a complete game on May 4 in a 4-3 victory and then going seven innings in an 11-4 victory on June 29. He’s led the Twins to four straight wins over the Tigers dating back to last year, and his start in Detroit last September he gave up one run in seven innings of a 3-2 victory.
Jeremy Bonderman (4-6, 4.81 ERA) is on the hill for Detroit and he’s just 1-2 in his last three games with an 8.27 ERA. He started at home on Sunday against the Mariners and was torched for seven runs on nine hits in five innings of an 8-1 loss. He’s given up 15 runs in his last three games (16.1 innings) and he needed big offense to beat the Twins back on June 28 when he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings but Detroit won 7-5.
Minnesota is on streaks of 5-2 on Saturdays and 41-17 against A.L. Central teams. Detroit is on slides of 2-9 when Bonderman faces a winning team and 1-5 when he gets five days off.
I’ll back Blackburn in this one as Bonderman has looked just awful lately. Grab the plus-money and go with the Twins today.
2♦ MINNESOTA
SEAN MURPHY
Germany @ URU
PICK: URU
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Please note: This play is on Uruguay +1 goal -170 in regulation time only.
The Germans are saying all the right things (most of them at least), but I think they're going to be hard pressed to stir up enough emotion to win this match handily.
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The 1-0 loss to Spain was obviously an extremely bitter defeat. Germany is still pondering what could have been had it not elected to sit back and wait for a Spanish mistake rather than go on the attack.
Germany did win the third place game at the World Cup four years ago, but I feel that this edition of the squad had set a much loftier goal for itself late in the tournament. This group knows that it let a tremendous opportunity slip away, and given the youth on the team, I'm not convinced they'll regroup in time for Saturday's contest.
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For Uruguay, there was disappointment in losing to the Netherlands in the semi-final, but this is a team that had already exceeded expectations. Who would have thought that they would be the last South American team standing in the semi-finals.
The Uruguayans would have needed all hands on deck to take down an attacking Holland squad on Tuesday, and the absence of Luis Suarez was certainly a major factor in their defeat. Suarez will of course be back on the pitch on Saturday, and all indications are that we'll see all hands on deck from the Uruguayan side.
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By contrast, German boss Joachim Loew has indicated that he may give his reserves some additional playing time as a reward for their readiness here in South Africa.
There are injury issues on both sides, as Miroslav Klose and Diego Forlan are hoping to play, but probably won't be at 100%. There's also been rumblings that German forward Lucas Podolski is battling a case of the flu. It looks like Forlan will give it a go, which is obviously huge for Uruguay. As for the Germans, it's been very hush-hush leading up to this match, and to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a much different looking squad on the pitch today.
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Another third place finish is no real consolation for the Germans, while Uruguay would love to take something away from what was certainly been a positive experience in South Africa. I expect this to be a hard-fought battle all the way. Don't count on a wide margin of victory in favor of Germany. Take Uruguay +1 goal -170
SPORTS WAGERS
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COLORADO –1½ +1.35 over San Diego
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The Padres bubble hasn’t completely burst yet but they’re starting to lose more games and with a bunch of guys on the rack, its chances of gaining some steam are not good. San Diego has lost three of its last four games, they’ve lost six of 11 with three of those wins coming against the Astros. Wade LeBlanc (32 BPV, 3-3-2-5-3 PQS) has an 81% strand-rate to thank for his 3.10 ERA (see the bottom of this page for an explanation of BPV and PQS). LeBlanc is one of those guys that has hugely benefitted from pitching at home but his road numbers tell a different story, In fact, his road ERA is 4.85, which is 2½-runs higher than his home ERA (2.36). His BAA on the road is .300 and now he’ll pitch in a park that always exposes average pitchers and that’s precisely what LeBlanc is. Jason Hammel (93 BPV, 5-3-0-4-4 PQS) has quality starts in six of his last seven starts (the lone exception being against the Red Sox). He is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA at Coors Field this year, and has a 55/14 K/BB over his last ten starts. Hammel gets better as the game progresses and in fact, he’s been as close to unhittable after the fifth inning as any pitcher in the league. Hammel is an elite pitcher that has solidified himself as a groundball pitcher and in this park he has a huge advantage over LeBlanc. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
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Cincinnati +2.13 over PHILADELPHIA
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Roy Halliday needs no introduction. The guy has been the major’s toughest pitcher over the last decade and over that stretch he’s missed very few starts. This season he has barely missed a beat and ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.33 ERA, first in complete games with seven, eighth in strikeouts with 118 and first in innings pitched with 139. Thing is, those 139 IP might not be such a good thing. Halliday is coming of a complete game win in the scorching heat over Atlanta this past Monday. He’s also lost seven games this year and that ranks 12th in the NL. It should be noted that Halliday’s fly-ball rate is way up and that he’s given up eight homers in his last five starts after allowing three in his first 13. In a recent game vs the Yanks he allowed 14 fly-ball outs to just seven GB outs. He faced the Reds two starts ago in Cincinnati and allowed 13 hits in eight frames and he allowed 19 fly-outs to just eight GB outs. These are all signs of fatigue and for a guy pitching in a tough park that is 33 years old, has logged more innings than anyone in the game, not to mention close to 2200 career innings, this is a ton of lumber to lay against the NL’s top ranked offense. Travis Wood has very decent numbers and would have much-better numbers over his first two major league starts were it not for his bullpen, who have allowed multiple inherited runners to score in both starts. In those two starts Wood has a BAA of .186 although it did come vs the Mets at Citi Field and against the Cubbies at Wrigley. Still, Wood is a lefty and the Phillies have just two wins in nine attempts vs southpaws at home and they’ve ever faced Wood. Overlay. Play: Cincinnati +2.13 (Risking 2 units).
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Uruguay +3.58 over Germany
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Uruguay +2.07 (to finish 3rd) over Germany
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Germany deviated from what was working for them in this World Cup and tried to revert back to good old German defending against Spain in their semifinal match. The whole world knew that Spain would control possession but the German counter-attack was non-existent. The Spaniards dominated shots on target 5-2 and overall shots 12-3. The Germans were literally playing with fire and it was no surprise when Carles Puyol netted a header off a corner-kick in the 73rd minute to propel "La Furia Roja" to a 1-0 victory. Many Deutschland supporters will always be left wondering if the outcome would have been any different if midfielder Thomas Mueller had have not been suspended for the match. Their stagnant attack certainly could have used his energetic runs and electrifying finishes. Uruguay had to play their semifinal match against Holland without two of its key components. Jorge Fucile and Luis Suarez were both ineligible to play due to suspension. Diego Forlan tried to do it all himself, scoring a remarkable goal in the first half, but it was very evident that he was missing the speed and finish of Suarez. Uruguay was flawless in their defending during the group stage, sharing an auspicious honor with Portugal as the only two teams to keep clean sheets. However, their defending has not been as strong during the knockout stages as they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The Germans are the highest scoring team in the entire tournament with 13 goals and have been equally strong on defense, surrendering just three goals. The 3rd place game at the World Cup is notorious for being a wide-open affair, with most players losing interest after the devastation of being eliminated in the semifinals. Germany won this match in the 2006 tournament but that was on their home soil and there are serious doubts concerning their motivation for this particular contest. Lack of motivation might not be the only problem for the Germans in this match, as they also have to deal with both a key injury and a flu-bug. Miroslav Klose is just one goal away from tying Ronaldo as the all-time leading scorer in World Cup history. A goal would also give him a shot at the 'Golden Boot' award in this World Cup but he will be a game-time decision with a back injury that he suffered in the semifinal match against Spain. On Friday it was also announced that a flu-bug had fiercely hit the German squad. Defender Philipp Lahm and Striker Lukas Podolski are the two worst affected players and the loss of either or both would be a huge blow to German hopes for this match. The worst affected by the virus is actually Germany's bench boss Joachim Low and it has been stated his absence from the match is a strong possibility. Oliver Bierhoff has also hinted that many of the German substitutes might get the opportunity to play and this is probably why they have not released their starting 11 for the match. Uruguay has revealed their starters for the match and it certainly looks like they are taking it seriously. While Germany is already building in their excuses, the Uruguayans are acting and talking like they still have a lot to play for. Luis Suarez will surely be extra motivated for this match, after missing the semifinal, and he has stated that his team will play until the death to win this match. It's evident that winning this match would end the tournament on a high note for Uruguay, while it might just rub more salt in the wound for Germany. Uruguay was never supposed to go this deep in the tournament and a 3rd place finish certainly means more to them, their soccer program and their country. This looks like a perfect to spot to take massive value on what still appears to be a very hungry Uruguayan squad. If the flu and injury bugs in the German camp are half as bad as indicated, this match will still be a dog fight and it only makes sense to take over 3-1 on Uruguay. Play: Uruguay +3.58 (Risking 1 unit) Play Uruguay +2.07 to finish 3rd (Risking 1 unit).
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HAMILTON –2 over Calgary
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The stars have aligned nicely for this early season matchup as the Stampeders enter this one off a win while the Ti-Cats took their lumps in Winnipeg. That offers some great value on the home team as we expect a strong effort here against a suspect visitor. While Calgary moved the ball efficiently against the woeful Argonauts, they lacked the precision and effectiveness to come up with major scores. You can get away with that against Toronto's inept offense but a similar effort will not work here. The Tiger-Cats disposed of these Stamps on this field last year by a 24-17 count and that was before the Tabbies began to gel as a unit. A trip to Calgary two weeks later resulted in a 15-14 squeaker for the host. Calgary has a revenge-motivated home date with the Roughriders on deck, after Saskatchewan knocked the Stampeders off in Western Finals last year. A short price in an ideal situation has us comfortably backing the hosts here. Play: Hamilton –2 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
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B.C. LIONS –2 over Saskatchewan
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Tough game in that it’s difficult to play either one of these teams. The Roughriders are coming off that tremendously grueling and emotional win over the Alouettes and that’s makes this one a very tough act to follow. They may respond well or they may suffer a serious letdown. What is apparent, however, is that the Roughriders have the ability to score big points and that could pose a problem here for the Lions. As for the B.C., they’ll open up in a new stadium and it’s a crapshoot as to how they’ll respond. Furthermore, Casey Printers did not look that good in week one against a rather soft Eskimo defense. Having said that, the Lions defense did a terrific job against Ricky Ray and that’s significant. Really, what we have here is more question marks than answers. We simply can’t trust the Roughies to come out with the same intensity as they did against Montreal last week. It was only week one but they exerted a ton of energy in coming back from 21-down and celebrated like they won the Grey Cup. The Lions weren’t the greatest show last week but they were methodical, efficient and very good defensively and thus, we’ll go with that. Play: B.C. Lions –2 (No wagers).
VEGAS EXPERTS
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San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
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Play on the San Francisco Giants – The Nationals host the San Francisco Giants tonight for the second game of the three game series at 7:05 PM ET. Washington got a huge win against the Giants last night by seven runs, so San Fran is going to revenge that game and even up the series. Craig Sanchez is taking the mound for the Giants. With a team start record of 10-7, he is having a good season. San Francisco is 13-4 against Washington over the last three seasons. The Giants are also 20-8 after a game where they had four or less hits, which is what took last night, in the first game of their series. On the other side of tonight’s MLB Matchup, Stammen is starting for the Nationals. With a team start record of 5-9, Stammen has been having a shaky season. He has a 5.73 ERA and 1.481 WHIP throughout this season and tends to lose a few games straight after a win which he got two nights ago. Watch as the Giants get some get back after last night’s huge loss. Play on the San Francisco Giants!
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Play on: San Francisco Giants
Rocketman
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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Kansas City Royals
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Kansas City is now 5-2 in the month of July. Kansas City has won 6 of their last 8 games overall. Brian Bannister is 7-6 overall this year. Gavin Floyd is 4-7 overall this year. Floyd is 2-7 with a 5.40 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. Royals are 7-3 in Bannisters last 10 starts. Royals are 6-1 in Bannisters last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight!
Craig Trapp
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Cubs vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 8.5
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Several angles point to a very easy over. The biggest in our favor is two average pitchers who will give up at least 7 runs over 6 innings. For the LAD they start Ely, over last month he is 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA in six starts. Even worse at home 0-3 with a 9.24 ERA in his last three starts. He will be opposed by Gorzelanny who has been average this season but does not go deep in games. Also he gives up a bunch of walks which could kill him verse hot LAD lineup. These two teams are coming off 16 runs on Friday night. Another big angle is that day games at Dodgers stadium average a full run higher as the ball carries much better. Look for this one to be in double digits and another easy cash for us.
MATT FARGO
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St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
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The Cardinals won the opener last night and they are clearly the better team but they are the underdogs here for a reason. They have not been very on the road all season long and at 19-25, they possess the same road record that the Astros have at home and that makes for a fairly even matchup. Houston is the favorite due to the pitching matchup and there is value involved. Brett Myers has been pitching well this season and he returned to form Saturday against the Padres, keeping his streak of pitching six innings or more intact as he gave up just four hits and two runs in exactly six innings. In eight home starts he has a 2.68 ERA and has yet to lose by going 4-0 and Houston going 7-1 in those games. Six of those starts have resulted in quality performances for Myers. He is opposed by Jeff Suppan who has been horrible this season including four starts in St. Louis since coming over from Milwaukee. His line shows no more than three runs allowed with the Cardinals however it also shows no more than 5.2 innings thrown and that has resulted in no quality starts and a 4.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Play on National League home teams that are averaging fewer than 3.8 rpg going up against a starter whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70). This situation is 41-15 (73.2 percent) since 1997. 3* Houston Astros
Tom Freese
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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Houston starter Brett Myers is 8-8 for a bad team. Myers has allowed 4 runs or less in 15 of his 16 starts. The Astros are 5-1 their last 6 games as home favorites. Houston is 6-1 their last 7 games as favorites of -110 to -150 and they are 6-2 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Cardinal starter Jeff Suppan is 1-3 in 4 starts this year. He has not pitched past the sixth inning in any start this year. The Cardinals are 1-6 their 7 games as underdogs and they are 2-6 their last 8 road games vs. righty starters.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -115
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There simply isn't much that the Cleveland Indians do well right now. They are sitting on a 34-52 record overall, which includes a dismal 17-30 record on the road. They are hitting just .246 as a team, while averaging 4.1 runs per game, not to mention the Tribe have one of the worst starting rotations and least-effect bullpens in the Majors. Meanwhile the Rays have won 6 of their last 7 games, bringing them to 52-34 on the season. They average about 5 runs per game and hit left-handed starters very well. In 30 games against lefty starters the Rays a 21-9 so far this season. Cleveland took game one of the series, but I doubt they take another the rest of the way.
Hollywood Sports
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New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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Felix Hernandez comes off a complete game two-hit shutout against the Yankees on June 30th. King Felix is 6-5 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for the season. And over his last three starts, Hernandez owns a sparkling 1.44 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He plays the role of ace well as the Mariners have won nine of their last ten home games against teams with a winning record with Hernandez on the mound. He faces off against Javier Vazquez who is 7-7 with a 4.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. But Vazquez struggles on the road given his 5.16 ERA as opposed to his 4.29 ERA at home in New York. Furthermore, the Yankees have lost five of their last seven games with Vazquez on the hill as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range.
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A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate why Hernandez is the better proposition between these two starting pitchers tonight. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Hernandez has a low ISO of .098 while Vazquez has a high .199 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Vazquez for many more extra-base hits than they are against Hernandez. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
Frank Jordan
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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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Atlanta used late back to back homeruns to win the opening game 4-2 and increase their lead to 3. Saturday's pitching match up is a gem as 10-3 Mike Pelfrey is going for the Mets who feels a little snubbed for not being invited to the All-Star game. It will not be easy for Pelfrey to get number 11 as he is opposed by Hudson who is 8-4 with an era under 2.50. Look for Pelfrey to show why he deserves to be on the roster if any pitcher can't go with a great 7 inning outing outdueling Hudson. Play NY Mets
John Ryan
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Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Boston Red Sox
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5* graded play on Boston s they take on Toronto set to start at 1:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Boston will win this game. When Lackey starts Boston his team record is a solid 54-19 (+25.4 Units) against the money line versus AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997; 16-3 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in road games versus a AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. In games where the line reflects near equal competitors Boston has gone 9-2 (+7.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. Red Sox has done well in their 4 games played on turf batting 313 with a 387 OBP and scoring 7.7 RPG. Toronto is not a solid offensive team batting just 254 with a 305 OBP over their past 7 games and 239 with a 301 OBP scoring just 4.5 RPG on the season. In 28 divisional games Toronto is batting just 230 with a horrid 295 OBP scoring just 3.9 RPG and the bullpen sports a horrid 5.57 ERA and a 1.615 WHIP in those same games. Take Boston.
Harry Bondi
ATLANTA (-120) over Mets
Tim Hudson has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and we'll glad lay the low price with him and the Braves over the Mets. New York starter Mike Pelfrey has been sulking about missing out on the All Star game and it has been affecting his pitching performance, as seen by a 10.61 ERA in his last two outings. The Braves will pounce on him today and ride to an easy road victory.
Wunderdog
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Cleveland Indians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1½
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You can bet the Rays are going to be up for this one. They were humiliated by a lowly Tribe team that has had all kinds of trouble on the road over the last two seasons. The Indians, on the road vs. right-hand starters have gone just 35-54 against the runline in their last 89 games in this situation, for a loss of just shy of 39 units. They are also just 3-12 in Laffey's last 15 starting a game as a road dog. The Rays are feasting on lefthanders at home, where they are 9-2 in their last 11. I like Tampa Bay on the runline.