Nelly
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Atlanta - over NY Mets
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The Mets are 29-15 at home this season but on the current home stand New York has dropped three of four games. After going on an eight-game win streak in mid-June, the Mets appear to be fading, going 8-11 in the last 19 games. New York has topped five runs just twice in the last seven games and the team batting average continues to fall. Even through injuries the Braves continue to put distance between themselves and the rest of the division. Atlanta is 7-3 in the last ten games and the lineup pounded out twelve hits in last night’s win. This match-up features two excellent starters but Tim Hudson has been superior with a 2.44 ERA for the season. Only once this season has he allowed four earned runs in a game and 13 times he has allowed two or fewer runs. His numbers are nearly as strong on the road as at home and he has been the more consistent starter in this match-up even though Mike Pelfrey owns the superior 10-3 record. Pelfrey was untouchable in April but he has struggled in recent outings, allowing 21 runs and 43 hits over his last five starts while picking up just nine strikeouts. Day games have been problematic for Pelfrey as his ERA jumps to 5.28 with a 1.57 WHIP. Atlanta is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and the road team should have a slight edge to add another game in the NL East division lead.
Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels +128
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I'll take the Angels at a solid price Saturday against the Oakland A's, who have lost four straight and should not be the favorite in this game. Oakland starter Ben Sheets is just 3-8 with a 4.89 ERA this season, not numbers you would expect from someone who is this heavily favored against a better team in the Los Angeles Angels. Sheets has also never beaten the Angels, going 0-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 4 career starts vs. Los Angeles.
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Lefty starter Scott Kazmir has made easy work of the A's throughout his career, going 9-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 15 career starts vs. Oakland. Kazmir is also 13-2 against the money line when pitching on Saturday over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 10-2 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 42-15 in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 12-3 in their last 15 meetings with the A's in Oakland overall. Take the Angels Saturday.