Frank Jordan
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San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Diego Padres
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San Diego had nothing doing last night as they got no hit and were an eighth inning error away from being perfect gamed as the Giants won 8-0. San Francisco is sending a great pitcher out their in Matt Cain who is 10-2 on the year with a 2.42 era. In this one though look for San Diego's bats to wake up and pound Cain as the atone for their lack luster performance last night. Play San Diego
DAVID MALINSKY
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New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Under 10
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This game is being played about 2,500 miles from the Bronx, but the new Yankee Stadium has an impact when we see the full 10’s that are out there for this Total. And that offers ample room to step in. How often do you see a 10 on the board when matching a visiting starter that sports a 4-1/2.79 in all road games vs. a home starter that has worked to a 6-1/1.91 from his local mound? And in the cases of Andy Pettitte and Jered Weaver, these are not just short-term runs.
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Since coming to the Major Leagues in 2006 Weaver has made 45 Anaheim starts, and if a 10 were attached each time it would mean a 29-14-2 tally for the Under. In that same span Pettitte has made 61 road starts, and they would chart 37-19-5 to the Under at a 10. Those are strong numbers over big samples, which absolutely begs the question as to why we see that plateau today, when Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter are absent, and all key bullpen arms are rested and ready. And part of that is the impact of the new park in the Bronx.
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While Pettitte has been his usual steady self on the road it has been a 5.72 allowance at home, and we can blame almost all of that on the way the ball carries in those new confines – in road starts he has allowed two home runs in 42 innings, while that goes to 12 in 61.1 at home. Not only does that make his overall statistics a bit artificial, but it does the same thing for the Yankee offense. That is part of why they track to 16-11-2 to the Under on the road since the beginning of May, a span being skewed by some of those early home explosions.
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Pettitte and Weaver bring much more than usual here for a double-digit total. The Angels will struggle against left-handers without their two best right-handed bats, while Weaver has been particularly effective against many of the Yankee hitters – Nick Swisher is at .158 over 19 at-bats; Mark Teixera .188 in 16; Johnny Damon .231 in 13; Derek Jeter .091 in 10; and Melky Cabrera is 0-10. That means that the oddsmakers have created a mountain instead of a hill this afternoon.
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Atlanta Braves
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Jair Jurrjens is just 6-7 on the season but he has posted an excellent season for the Braves. His ERA is 2.91 and in 18 starts Jurrjens has allowed as many as four runs just three times. Jurrjens has actually pitched slightly better on the road this season and he allowed just three hits and one run in a start against the Rockies earlier this season. Atlanta’s bullpen does not have great overall numbers for the season but in it has been a much more reliable unit than the counterpart for Colorado.
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Jason Marquis has had a great season but he is a bit overvalued based on his inflated 11-5 record. At home Marquis owns a very average 3.72 ERA and a dangerously high 1.40 WHIP. In over 117 innings Marquis has just 16 more strikeouts than walks and five times this year Marquis has allowed five or more runs. Colorado’s bullpen has an ERA of 5.67 in the last ten games and the late innings have been a problem all season even though the Rockies have managed to enter the wild card race. Atlanta has won six of the last nine meetings between these teams and the Braves have been the much better hitting team in recent games.
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Atlanta is batting .297 in the last ten games compared to just .228 for the Rockies even though these teams have produced nearly the same records in that span. Atlanta has scored an average of five runs per game in the last ten games while the Rockies have been held to three or fewer runs in nine of the last 15 games. Atlanta has been a very respectable road team this season and the Rockies appear to be a bit overvalued coming off a recent win streak in June.
Scott Delaney
I am on a 30-18-1 run with complimentary releases after scoring with the Dodgers on the road in Milwaukee, and tonight we're playing the Rays over Oakland.
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Hmmm, let’s see, we’re either siding with Dallas Braden, the 26-year-old who is 12-19 lifetime and 1-2 over his last five starts, or Rays hurler Matt Garza, who is 11-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 24 career starts at Tropicana Field?
It really is an easy choice, as Garza will be pissed off after taking a loss on Sunday night against the Rangers, who tagged him for five runs in five innings in Arlington. That makes me like this one even more, as there’s no doubt in my mind the crafty right-hander has the best stuff on the Rays' staff. Despite a 6-6 mark this season, his ERA is a respectable 3.70, and he’s shown me consistent aggressiveness while maturing on the mound each start.
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Garza’s in double revenge against Oakland too, as he’s 0-2 with a 3.50 ERA in three career appearances against the A's. And prior to the setback in Arlington, he produced impressive wins against Philadelphia and at Toronto, allowing two earned runs over 15 innings of work while striking out 10. He’s fanned a minimum of five batters his last five times on the hill and in eight of his last nine starts.
On the flip side, we’re going against a hurler who has certainly shown promise by allowing no more than three earned runs in nine straight starts, but is no match for the surging Rays at Tropicana Field, where they’ve won nine straight now. Tampa Bay has won 24 of 29 at Tropicana Field and is an American League-best 30-13 at home.
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All Rays tonight with Garza an easy choice over Braden.
1♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Reds at CitiField.
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Johan Santana is awesome and could dominate as usual here but the way the Mets have been playing, or not playing, I can't help but get a decent price back like this.
Johnny Cuueto has been great this season. I have no idea how he blew up the way he did in that last start in Philadelphia but I'm not going to put too much stock into that as every pitcher has one of those or at least something like that a year. Granted 2/3rds of an inning and 9 earned runs is as bad as it could be but I do think Cueto will rebound as he is up against a beat up and rather awful offense right now in the Mets.
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Cincinnati overall is extremely mediocre and will have issues with Santana, as pretty much every team does. I do not expect Votto, Phillips, Bruce and the visitors to bust out the whooping sticks at all but at this price and in this spot with what should be a very motivated Cueto I will take my chances against the New Yorkers and expect their slide to continue for one more day.
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1♦ Reds
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
The Cardinals were just nowhere to be found yesterday as we end up taking a loss.
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That’s fine because we’re cashing in today as we’re taking the Reds on the road at the Mets.
While many people are quick to jump all over the Mets - mostly because of scheduled starter Johan Santana - you will want to look against New York.
Over his last 5 starts the Mets are 1-4 and are just 2-5 his last 7 starts, including losses in each of his last 2 games.
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The Reds, on the other hand, turn to Johnny Cueto, who is 2-1 his last 3 starts.
Overall, New York is just 1-6 its last 7 games and is 3-11 its last 14 games overall. At home, the Mets are just 1-6 their last 7 and will drop another today.
Take the Reds on the road in this one.
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3♦ REDS
Craig Davis
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I'm just curious... has anyone been watching Ricky Romero lately? The dude is a flat out beast and has dominated opponent after opponent lately, allowing just three earned runs in his last three starts... including two games in which he allowed no earned runs. Romero is on a 4-game winning streak and has allowed just five earned runs in his last 28 innings of work. What sold me was when I watched him pitch against the Yankees in the Bronx... and this is a Yankees team that hits nearly .300 vs. lefties. For whatever reason, the Blue Jays step up their game when Romero takes the hill, winning the game in his last five starts adn 8 of his 12 starts overall this year. After Brett Cecil shut down the birds last night, it's hard for me to believe the Orioles will have what it takes to get the sticks going against a pitcher like Romero. Take the Blue Jays as your free play of the day.
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2♦ TORONTO
We Cover Spreads
Seattle has never been kind to Texas' Kevin Millwood while Jarrod Washburn has been solid at Safeco this season. Make the Mariners your play tonight vs. the Rangers.
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Mariners' hurler Jarrod Washburn is coming off of a complete game shutout performance against Baltimore. He has allowed just eight earned runs in his last 54 innings on the hill while dominating opposing batters. We also will give him the slight edge pitching at home against Texas today. He has been impressive at home with a 2.55 ERA at Safeco Field this season.
The Rangers are batting just .234 on the highway this season vs. southpaws which is a good sign for Washburn. He received a no-decision earlier this year when pitching at Texas after leaving the game allowing four earned runs in a 4-4 tie through six innings in what was eventually a 6-5 Rangers win.
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Kevin Millwood is off his worst start of the year allowing nine earned runs against the Angels. He is 2-5 on the road this season with a 4.39 ERA. He has never done well in Seattle, giving up 17 earned runs in his last three starts here. The Rangers are just 1-4 in his last five starts at Safeco Field.
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Millwood hasn't pitched a quality start in Seattle since April 2007; look for Washburn to build off of his last performance giving him a big edge as far as confidence compared to Millwood. We'll back Seattle at home.
Pick: Mariners -108
Bob Harvey
The train just keeps right on rolling as the Los Angeles Dodgers continue to build momentum with baseball's best record heading into next week's All-Star Game.
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It’s the Dodgers and Brewers in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Dodgers will send Jeff Weaver to the hill but they could easily start Jeff Foxworthy because just about anyone Los Angeles trots out there should dominate this disheveled Brewers team.
The fact that Milwaukee is still within shouting distance of first-place is a miracle upon itself. This team has no starting pitching, their bullpen has been overworked and outside of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, they don’t have a reliable stick in the lineup. The once mighty Brew Crew is ranked 24th in the majors in hitting with an average of.254. Their pitching staff also ranks 24th in the majors with an ERA of 4.49. At least they’re consistent.
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Weaver, who has provided quality innings as a starter and long reliever, is 5-2 with a 3.32. He’s been even better as a starter going 2-0 with a 3.15 ERA this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (31-17), but it explains his rather high WHIP of 1.48. If Weaver stays in the strike zone he could thrive against a Brewers team that is hitting just .242 against righthanders in '09. If not, he should still be okay backed by the best bullpen in baseball.
Opposing Weaver will be journeyman Mike Burns who is on his fourth team in three years. Burns is 1-2 with an ERA of 5.57 and will be making his fourth start of the season. In his last outing, Burns gave up seven runs in less than five innings against the light-hitting Cubs. He’s starting in place of the injured Dave Bush.
When you delve further into the numbers you will see what a bargain Weaver and the Dodgers are today. With a record of 55-31, the Dodgers are the top moneymaking team in baseball this season. They’re 27-18 on the road and lead the majors in one-run victories.
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LA has the second-best batting average in the majors (.276). They’re fourth in stolen bases and seventh in runs per game at 5.06. With Manny Ramirez back in the lineup the Dodgers have started to flex their muscles again. Manny’s HR last night, #536 in his career, tied him with Mickey Mantle for 15th on the all time list. Andre Eithier, Russell Martin, James Loney and Matt Kemp also went deep on Friday night with Kemp delivering a grand slam to cap the Dodgers six run, 10th inning outburst. Kemp has three consecutive three hit games and is hitting .324. His game ending catch Friday night wasn’t too bad either. It might be the defensive play of the year as well and is worth checking out if you missed it.
The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 games and look like a team that’s intent on winning out as the first-half concludes. The Brewers, despite being 3-7 in their last 10 games, are just three games behind the first-place Cardinals. Thanks to the mediocrity of the NL Central, Milwaukee will probably hang around for awhile. But with no pitching, an anemic offense and a bullpen on fumes, their stay near the top figures to short-lived.
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The Dodgers are -115 favorites over the Brewers with the total set at 9.5. If you’re considering playing LA on the RL consider that the Blue Crew is just 40-45 in that department.
CT Sports Picks
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Game: CIN @ NYM
Pick: NYM -130
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Going to make this quick and easy today. Cueto has been horrible his last three starts all were terrible. On the other hand Santana has been awesome even though he has not received the run support to turn into some wins. Today CIN will continue there struggles at the plate specially since Santana is on of the best pitchers in the NL. The Mets have struggled to score but will get enough to get a win for NYM today.!!
Rocketman
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#29 Kevin Harvick vs #31 Jeff Burton
Play: #29 Kevin Harvick -115
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Kevin Harvick is one of my favorite drivers to win this race tonight. Kevin Harvick has 2 wins, five Top 5 finishes and six Top 10 finishes in his 8 races here in Chicago. Harvick has the best average finish among all drivers in Chicago at 7.4. Jeff Burton has no wins, only one Top 5 finish and three Top 10 finishes in his 8 races in Chicago. Burton has an average finish of 19.2 here in Chicago. Despite Harvick's struggles overall this year, he is one of the big dogs at this track and I feel like he'll be able to do well here tonight. We'll recommend a small play on Kevin Harvick to finish ahead of Jeff Burton tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Game Time Sports Advisors
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Under 9.5
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We are going under the total in Baltimore. These two teams have gone 6-2-1 under their last nine in Baltimore and 5 of their last 6 overall. Both pitchers have been solid of late also. UNDER Tor/Blt
Michael Alexander
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Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Rating: 2 Units
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The Colorado Rockies send Jason Marquis to the hill today with an 11-5 mark and 3.61 ERA. Marquis will be looking to set a career-high streak for consecutive scoreless innings He tossed eight innings Monday night against the Washington Nationals. He will also search for a third straight win over Atlanta after allowing one run over eight innings May 18 in a 5-1 win at Turner Field. Marquis has a 2.03 ERA in consecutive wins over the Braves.
Vernon Croy
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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We are getting great value here Saturday night with the Blue Jays who have Ricky Romero (7-3, 2.96 ERA) on the mound. The Blue Jays are a perfect 6-0 this season with Romero on the mound when he is pitching with 4 days rest and the Jays are 5-0 in Romero's last 5 starts. The Orioles are just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games against a lefty starter. The Orioles are just 14-42 in their last 56 games against an AL East opponent and the Jays are simply the better overall team here Saturday night. Rich Hill (3-2, 7.43) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 14.35 over 3 starts while lasting just an average of 3.6 innings per start. Take the Toronto Blue Jays as my MLB Free Play for Saturday night.
RJ Robbins
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Under 9
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The Pirates are 18-7 Under against left-handed starters this season. The Phillies are 25-16 Under at home this season. The Under is 6-1 between these two teams the L7 in Philadelphia and the last 7 games these two have gone under 10-3.