Scott Rickenbach
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Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Chicago White Sox
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The Twins took game one of this series on Friday but, previously, the White Sox had won 16 of their last 23 games and averaged nearly six runs per game during this solid stretch! Look for the ChiSox to bounce right back here. Before yesterday's win, the Twins were just 8-9 in their last 17 games and Minnesota had averaged only 4.2 runs per game during this stretch. The White Sox have been the hotter team and definitely have had the hotter offense of late.
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As for the pitching match-up, the White Sox also hold an edge this evening. Gavin Floyd gets the start for the White Sox. The ChiSox are 6-3 in Floyd's last nine starts. He had pitched eight straight quality starts before allowing five earned runs in his most recent start. In that outing Floyd only gave up four hits and we do see value in backing him here as he should get right back on track. Floyd has been in great form and only allowed four hits in his loss to the Royals. In fact, Floyd has given up just 42 hits in his last 63.2 innings. While Floyd excels again tonight, look for Glen Perkins of the Twins to get roughed up. The southpaw's last nine starts have seen his Twins go just 4-5. Perkins has allowed 64 hits in his last 50 innings. In his career as a starter, Perkins was hit at a .301 clip last season and he's getting hit at a .276 clip this season. More struggles on the way tonight and the red hot White Sox get right back on track here behind a strong start from Floyd. Consider a small play on the Chicago White Sox on the money line on Saturday.
Ben Burns
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Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets
PICK: New York Mets
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Johnny Cueto is coming off of a very poor effort in his last start and hasn't been sharp lately. However, because he has solid full season numbers, he's still getting a fair amount of respect from odds makers and bettors here. Cueto's struggles go back further than one start. He's allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. In one of those four occurrences the runs were unearned but, nonetheless, he was hit hard and the runs kept crossing the plate. In his last four starts, Cueto's ERA has risen significantly - he's given up six home runs during that stretch. Making matters worse, Cueto has also walked 10 in his last 12 2/3 innings. Additionally, in two career starts against the Mets Cueto is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA. He's 8-6 at home but 9-13 on the road in his career. Also, he has a 3.38 ERA in day games but a 4.75 ERA in night games.
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Johan Santana has pitched at least seven innings, while allowing two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts. After a minor rough patch in the early part of June, Santana appears to be back on top of his game. Santana is 6-2 at home this season with a 2.08 ERA and a .206 BAA. In his career, the southpaw is 61-27 at home with a 2.95 ERA. Santana's career record in night games is a remarkable 76-35.
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While the Mets admittedly still "aren't quite right," the former Cy Young Award winner should be able to get the better of Cueto here. Consider New York.
Jimmy Boyd
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Florida Marlins vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Florida Marlins
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Jon Garland is now 4-8 on the year for the Diamondbacks and has a 7.15 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 9 starts at home this year. The D-Backs also have one of the worst bullpens in the Majors, coming into tonight's game with a 4.99 ERA and 1.54 WHIP along with 13 blown saves in 33 attempts. Arizona hits just .225 against left-handed starters and average only 3.6 runs per game against them. Play on the Marlins Saturday.