Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday July, 14

Jesse Schule

Toronto Argonauts at Hamilton Tiger Cats
Play: Toronto Argonauts

Toronto will be on the road this week, however they don't have far to go, as they are in Hamilton to take on the Tiger-Cats. The Argos are full of optimism coming off a huge home win over Calgary last week. Toronto's veteran quarterback Ricky Ray didn't look that impressive against his old team in the season opener in Edmonton, however after a spectacular performance last week at home, he now leads the league in yards and completions. He has a quarterback rating of 103.6, which is good enough for second amongst active starters.

The Toronto defense also came up big last week, with a crucial forced fumble and a couple of interceptions. The defense was also solid in the season opener in Edmonton, holding the Eskimos to just a single rushing touchdown, and 19 total points. I will look for the Argos defense to keep Hamilton in check here today, and give Ricky Ray and the offense a chance to win on the road.

Hamilton doesn't have a lot to be positive about, they were blown out in the first game of the season, at home against the Rough Riders. They fought hard on the road in B.C. last week, but came up short against the defending champion Lions. With Henry Burris leading the offense, the Tiger-Cats can certainly put points on the board, but their defense has allowed 82 points in just the first two games of the season. They allowed Saskatchewan to come into their house and stomp them by a score of 44-16. They will have to do a lot better than that today if they want to keep pace with the Argos.

Toronto comes into this game riding some positive momentum, if they can get on the board early here, I think they will chalk up another win.

Hollywood Sports

Toronto at Hamilton
Prediction: Under

Toronto (1-1) outgunned Calgary last week by a 39-36 score -- but their defense looked much better than what those 36 points allowed suggests since they held the Stampeders to just 293 yards of offense. The Argonauts defense looked quite good in Week One despite losing to Edmonton by a 19-16 score. Toronto goes back on the road for this one where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. The Argos have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total coming off a victory. Hamilton (0-2) followed up an awful opening week where they allowed 43 points in their 43-16 loss at Saskatchewan by surrendering another 39 points in their 39-36 loss at British Columbia last week. But their defense did play better by only allowing 20 first downs. The Tiger-Cats have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5-10 point range. And Hamilton has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the East Division. With the Total currently at 55.5 (and still rising?), the Under as the contrarian play here is looking better and better. Take the Under.

Marc Lawrence

Indians at Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays

When the Blue Jays send Aaron Laffey to the mound against Ubaldo Jiminez and the Indians Saturday afternoon, Laffey will take the mound for the first time against his former team. After starting his career with Cleveland in 2007, Laffey was traded to Seattle in 2011 before being claimed on waivers later in the season by the Yankees. He signed with Toronto in the off- season and despite a sharp 2.50 ERA in three starts this season, the Blue Jays dropped all three of Laffey's starts this season. Meanwhile, Jimenez owns a road ERA (5.36) that is 1.70 runs worse than his home ERA (3.66) this season. Look for Laffey to break into the winners circle with a big effort here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Toronto.

Jim Feist

Angels / Yankees
Pick: Over

The Yankees finished the first half of the season with baseball's best winning percentage (.612). And, the Yankees opened up a nice cushion in the AL East, now seven games ahead of second place Baltimore. The Yankees are an excellent hitting club, fourth in runs per game (4.85), first in home runs (134) and sixth in batting average (.262). Meanwhile, the Angels are just four back of AL West leading Texas. The Angels have one of the better pitching staffs, 2nd in runs allowed (3.88), second in team ERA (3.61) and fifth in WHIP (1.261). Today's pitchers look to be the weakest of the series with Jerome Williams going for the Angels and Freddy Garcia for the Yankees. Williams is 6-5 on the season but is 0-3 in his last three starts with a 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Meanwhile, Garcia has a 1-1 record his last three starts with a 5.93 ERA. Garcia is only starting because Pettitte is on the DL. Two bad pitchers against a couple of top notch teams isn't good for low scoring games. I like this one to go OVER on Saturday.

Chris Elliott

Oakland vs. Minnesota
Pick: Oakland

The Oakland Athletics (43-43) will hand the ball to left hander Tommy Milone on Saturday night when they take on the Minnesota Twins (36-44). Milone has pitched well for the Athletics this year with a record of 8-6 a 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a .249 BAA. In his last 4 starts he has given up just 3 runs in 28 innings for an ERA of 0.96. Oakland has a record of 7-6 in 13 Milone road starts in his young career.

Minnesota will send undrafted rookie right hander Cole De Vries to the mound Saturday to take on Milone and the Athletics. De Vries has a record of 2-1 on the year with an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 1.10, and a BAA of .225. He has been decent as a starter, allowing 8 runs over 28 innings of work for an ERA of 2.56. He has faced Oakland once in his career, earlier this season with Minnesota coming away with a slim 3-2 victory.

Oakland comes out of the All Star break looking to close the 9 game gap with the division leading Texas Rangers. They are 12-8 in their last 20 games overall and 6-4 in their last 10 on the road. The Twins are 10-10 in their last 20 overall and 8-12 in their last 20 against the AL West Division. Minnesota sits in the basement of the AL Central, 11 games back of the division leading Chicago White Sox. Milone is arguably Oakland`s best pitcher right now and should have little trouble shutting down the Twins lowly offence. Take the road team in the upset. Take the Athletics to win!

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Detroit Tigers

I rolled the Tigers as Friday's free pick to a 7-2 victory, and I'll back them again Saturday at a solid price. Detroit is now 45-42 on the season and poised to make a run for the AL Central lead in the coming weeks. Because they got off to a slow start, the Tigers are now reasonably priced at this point in the season despite being one of the most talented teams in baseball. Max Scherzer has been nothing short of dominant of late, going 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his last three starts. He has 21 strikeouts over 19 innings during this span, and 121 K's in 97 1/3 innings on the season. Wei-Yin Chen got off to a great start for Baltimore, and he's still 7-5 with a 3.93 ERA on the season. However, Chen has certainly cooled off recently, going 0-2 with a 6.63 ERA in his last three outings. The Tigers have a ton of momentum right now as they are 6-0 in their last 6 games overall. The 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Tigers are 24-8 in Scherzer's last 32 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Detroit is 5-0 in Scherzer's last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games as an underdog, and 1-6 in their last 7 home games. Take Detroit.

Ray Monohan

Rangers vs. Mariners
Play: Under 6.5

UNDER the Total Last night Adrian Beltre hit a two-run homer and Derek Holland pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings as visiting Texas won the opener of a three-game set. This would have been an easy win if not for some crappy pitching by Joe Nathan in the bottom of the 9th who threw over 35 pitches before getting out of a jam. Saturday its Darvish vs. King Felix Hernandez in what should be an EPIC Pitching battle. This play is backed by some NICE angles. For starters. Under is 3-1-1 in Hernandezs last 5 home starts vs. Rangers. The under is 6-0 in Rangers last 6 overall. Under is 7-0 in Rangers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record, and we get the Under 6-0 in Rangers last 6 on grass. Under is 4-1 in Hernandezs last 5 starts on grass. Under is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 games as a home underdog. Under is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West. Under is 10-2 in Mariners last 12 home games.

Rob Vinciletti

Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto fits a nice system here today that plays on home favorites with a total of 10 or higher that are off a 1 run home loss and scored 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a 1 run road win and scored 4 or less runs. These home favorites have won 28 of 37 times the last 9 seasons. Toronto will look to avenge last nights loss with A. Laffey here tonight and he has a solid 2.67 era on the season and will oppose U. Jimenez. In his road starts Jimenez has a mediocre 5.36 era. Cleveland is 3-9 the last few years when the total is 10 to 10.5 in their road games and are hitting just .237 vs Leftys this year. Toronto averages over 5 runs per game here at home and 5.4 runs in all day games this year. Look for the Blue jays to take game two.

Dave Price

New York Mets +103

I'll side with R.A. Dickey as an underdog almost every time he takes the mound. Despite his success this season, he continues to get no love from oddsmakers. Dickey is 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.933 WHIP in 17 starts in 2012 with 123 strikeouts in 120 innings. Tommy Hanson is just 3-3 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in eight home starts this year for the Atlanta Braves. In his last three starts against New York, Hanson has allowed 12 earned runs, five home runs, and 24 base runners over 15 1/3 innings. Dickey is 10-1 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. The Mets are 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 road starts. Bet New York.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers -135

The Los Angeles Dodgers now have Matt Kemp back in the line-up, and now is the time to jump back on them as their line-up returns to full strength. This team is the real deal this season, and I believe their 47-40 record coming into the All-Star break is legit considering they were without Kemp for a big part of the first half.

Aaron Harang is having a solid season for the Dodgers, going 6-5 with a 3.51 ERA in 17 starts. The right-hander has been dominant at home, going 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in seven outings. He pitched seven shutout innings to earn the win in an 8-1 victory at San Diego in his last start against the Padres on 5/17.

I'm really not a big fan of Edinson Volquez who served a 50-game suspension for using performing-enhancing drugs. Volquez is 5-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.379 WHIP in 18 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in seven road starts. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 41-16 in their last 57 games as a home favorite. Los Angeles is 53-25 in their last 78 games as a favorite. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Harang's last 4 starts vs. National League West foes. The Padres are 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego is 17-43 in their last 60 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Dodgers.

Dave Cokin

New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

RA Dickey has been amazing for the Mets, but Tommy Hanson is coming on of late for Atlanta. The Braves have the better attack, I prefer their pen if it's tight late, and they're at home. Price is sure to generate Mets money. I'll go oppo and take the Braves.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit -116 over BALTIMORE

The Tigers have won six in a row and they’ve batted .318/.370/.502 over their last 13 games. The Orioles have gone just 8-15 over their last 23 contests. Over that stretch the O's have scored just 2.8 RPG and sported an OPS well under .600 (.568). Max Scherzer is battling through another season of inconsistent results but his skills are some of the most electric in the game. He has 121 K’s in just 97 innings. His 4.72 actual ERA is almost 1½ runs higher than his xERA and when we see that we usually see some strong value with it. Scherzer has the goods to be one of the best pitchers in the second half and is way undervalued here pitching for the red-hot Tigers. Wei-Yin Chen is the complete opposite of Scherzer with an actual ERA that is lower than his xERA. He has outperformed his skills so far by a wide margin but it’s beginning to catch up to him. Behind his 3.83 ERA and 1.27 WHIP are some underwhelming numbers that include a 37% groundball rate, an average strikeout rate, 15 home runs allowed and some rather ugly numbers with men are on base. This is a pitching mismatch with a solid opportunity to back an underpriced favorite.

L.A. Angels +128 over N.Y. YANKEES

Freddy Garcia is another example of how W/L records continue to be one of sports’ most misleading stats. He’s 3-2 in six starts. More notable is that he’s lost velocity each of the past three years, the quality starts are dwindling and his profile is trending the wrong way. Garcia has a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 36%/30%/34%. You would be hard pressed to find another pitcher in the league with a line-drive % that high. He’ll be running into a lineup that is seeing the ball very well lately with 48 runs scored and a .270 team batting average over the past 10 games. Garcia is fooling nobody and is even worse at home with a 7.13 ERA. Jerome Williams rebounded from being hit by a comebacker with six innings of two earned-run ball, 7/0 K/BB at AAA-Salt Lake City. He re-joins the rotation with a 3.87 xERA (83 IP) and the ability to generate groundballs at a 56% clip. Any pitcher that can do that gives his team a great chance to win and that chance certainly increases against a guy like Garcia.

Scott Spreitzer

St Louis Cardinals +104

The Cincinnati Reds captured round one in this important NL Central series last night. The Redbirds held a lead through six innings but the Reds scored 4 runs in the 7th and 8th innings combined and went on to a 5-3 win, helped out by a key Allen Craig throwing error in the 7th. Cardinal "Ace" Kyle Lohse takes the bump tonight. Yes, it looks odd as I type "Ace" and Lohse in the same sentence, but that is the case for the Cards in 2012. Lohse owns a 9-2 mark in 18 starts this season, sporting a fantastic 2.79 ERA & 1.08 WHIP. The veteran righty has been tremendous in 10 road starts this season - and he's had one of the hottest arms in the league over his last seven starts, allowing just 11 earned runs and 45 base runners in 49 1/3 innings of work. Lohse completely shut down Cincinnati in back-to-back starts against them earlier this season. Add in one start each against the Reds in 2010 and 2011 and Lohse owns a virtually untouchable 1.38 ERA & 0.92 WHIP in his last four starts against today's opponent. The Reds counter with Mike Leake today. The righthander has struggled at Great American this season saddled with a hefty 5.15 ERA and .301 BAA in eight starts. He's given up 8 HRs in 43 2/3 innings at home in 2012 for a poor 1.64 HRs allowed per 9 IP mark. He'll face a lineup that should include Lance Berkman. The Cardinals have been without Berkman for nearly two months and hope to have him back in a ballpark he absolutely loves. Berkman has hit 23 home runs in Cincinnati in his career. Having Berkman back would be the icing on the cake, but he could very well struggle while shaking off the rust. He's not the key to this play...Lohse and Leake are and that's the difference maker in this one. I'm backing the slight underdog St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday.

Tony George

San Francisco -158

More than I like to play on the moneyline but well worth the stretch here without question. The Astros are in big trouble here, and they are just 9-33 their last 42 road games and they face a hot team, a solid home team who has a great starter on the hill today (Lincecum is decent at home with under a 4 ERA). Cannot pass up with Giants for a convincing win at home in this sport against a struggling team with a pitcher with a road ERA approaching 7.