Indian Cowboy:
British Columbia / Saskatchewan Under 54
Let's go with the under this weekend in Saskatchewan for the comp selection as two teams that are both 2-0 face each other. Hopes are high in Saskatchewan after their quick 2-0 start as they face the defending champs who have picked up right where they left off it seems. The public is on the over in this game but we will take the under as the fade as most people think that when two good teams get together the game goes over - this can be true in the NFL, NBA or College Basketball for that matter. But, rather, I have found when two good teams get together games tend to go under as the public gets buried. You'll notice despite the public being on the over the total has not budged and it has remained steady at 54. This Saskatchewan team is the same team that just held Edmonton to one point at home and held Hamilton to 16 points while scoring 43 points on them on the road. British Columbia gave up 36 points to Hamilton last week and I suspect that this team will make immediate adjustments this week to change that. Look for this game to have a much stronger defensive tinge to it than most realize as the under is 7-0 for the Lions of BC when they are on the road and the under is 6-0 for the Roughriders when they face a team with a winning record.
Ross King
St Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St Louis Cardinals
St.louis is currently 7-0 on the road when the total is between 9 -9.5.Kyle Lohse is 9-2 on the season with a 2.79 e.r.a and versus the Reds he is 3-3 e.r.a 3.37 but his e.r.a is only 1.59 against them in his last 6 starts.Reds starter Leake is 3-6 on the season with a 4.01 e.r.a but against St.Louis he is 1-2 with a 6.32 e.r.a.Take St.Louis as your freeplay winner this afternoon as they have the better pitcher and if you factor in the injection of Berkman back into the lineup they should be the better overall team.
Sean Murphy
San Diego vs. LA Dodgers
Pick: San Diego
Bettors are lining up to back the Dodgers now that both Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are back in the lineup.
L.A. took a step in the right direction with a 2-1 win in the opener of this series last night, but I'm not convinced they're all the way back just yet.
The Padres have lost four games in a row, but draw a favorable pitching matchup tonight as they send Edinson Volquez to the hill against Aaron Harang.
Volquez has been outstanding lately, allowing just 12 hits and two earned runs while striking out 22 in his last three starts, spanning 19 2/3 innings of work. He needed to throw 127 pitches to get through his most recent outing, a seven-inning performance against the Reds, but that came back on July 5th. The All-Star break has certainly given him some time to rest his arm after being a workhorse in his last three starts.
The right-hander should be up for this one having gone winless in three starts against the Dodgers so far this season. He brings much better form to the table this time around, and despite winning last night, the Dodgers still aren't hitting.
Aaron Harang has had an up and down season for the Dodgers so far. That's no surprise as he's been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball in recent years. He was masterful in his most recent start against the Padres, tossing seven shutout innings in San Diego back on May 17th. I'm not convinced he can turn that trick again tonight, however. Note that the Dodgers have won just once in his last four starts, giving him a grand total of seven runs to work with over that stretch.
The Dodgers are an excellent home team, having gone 28-16 here at Dodger Stadium this season. With that being said, they're running into a hot pitcher tonight, and they're certainly not invincible, even with Ethier and Kemp back in the lineup. I'll take my chances with the Padres at a generous price in this one.
GoodFella
NY Yankees -137
The Yankees aren't going to wait until the 8th inning this afternoon to unload on Jerome Williams, who is coming off the DL, which is typically an auto-fade. Given that the Angels had last night's game in hand blew it, we have to think it's New York with the swagger, and the Angels with the bullpen issues that were prevalent in the early season. Garcia is a wily veteran that knows how to pitch out of trouble, the Yankees clearly have the bullpen advantage, and the day game following the night game almost always favors the home team & my money is on the YANKEES again today, as we cashed on them last night, too.
Evan Abrams
Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Indians picked up the road win on Friday 1-0 and early Saturday they will play the Blue Jays again. Cleveland will be bringing Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound against a home run hitting team in Toronto who were shut out Friday night. I fully expect the Blue Jays offense to give Laffey some run support and the -118 number should even get smaller when we get closer to first pitch because of the pitching match up. Aaron Laffey has pitched exactly 6 innings in each of his last three starts and that is exactly what he will need to bring to the table to give the Blue Jays a chance to pick up a home win Saturday afternoon.
Joe Gavazzi
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: New York Mets
The Braves are on a major uptick with streaks of 12-2 and 5-0. Hanson is recently 5-1 with a 3.55 ERA. But he has struggled vs. the Mets with a record of 0-4 and 6.64 ERA. He also features bloated numbers on this field including 4.63 ERA. Must side with knuckle baller Dickey at this value price! In his last 14 starts, he is 10-0 with a 1.84 ERA. In all, the Mets have won 14 of his 17 starts.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
LA Dodgers/ San Diego Over 7: The Padres really struggle to score at home (under 3 rpg), but on the road they do average 3.98 rpg, while vs righties away from home they have put up 4.49 rp/9 on the board. Aaron Harang has pitched well at home (2.86 ERA), but he does have a 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts and has struggled in his career vs the Padres. Aaron di pitch 7 shutout innings in his last start vs the Padres, but in his other two starts vs them this year he allowed 7 ER's in just 10.67 innings of work. Dating back to his days with the Reds, Aaron has a 7.36 ERA in his 5 starts prior to his last start vs them. Aarons's 3 starts vs them this year has produced 9 or more runs, while the OVER is 4-1-1 in his last 6 starts vs them. Edison Volquez has had a nice little run with an 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he still put many men on base as he gave up 12 walks and 12 hits in the 3 games (19.2 innings). Edison has 3 starts vs LA this year and has allowed 11 ER's on 17 hits and 12 walks in 15 innings of work. He also has a 4.02 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP on the road this year. The Dodgers offense has been struggling, but it will get better with Kemp and Ethier back in the lineup. Kemp and Ethier are a combined 7-17 with a HR and 5 RBI's off of Volquez, while the team as a whole is hitting .314 with 16 RBI's and 2 HR's in 86 AB's off of him. I lost on the over in last night's game but I feel stronger about this play,as I expect both teams to get at least 4 runs each tonight.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ Cleveland Under 10: Last night just 1 run was scored in the game and while I don't see that happening here I do expect this game to be a pretty easy under. Since Aaron Laffey was put in the rotation he has had 3 very good starts, allowing just 5 ER's in the 3 starts combined. Those 3 teams he faced were Boston, the White Sox and the Angels, so he did it vs pretty good offenses. The Tribes offense has been pretty solid of late, putting up 5.8 rpg in their last 10 games, but they do hit just .231 vs lefties on the road, compared to .268 vs righties and they score just 4.05 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, compared to 5.07 rp/9 vs righties. T he Jays come in struggling slightly on offense, as they have scored 2 runs of fewer in 3 of their last 4 games and they will be taking on Ubaldo Jiminez, who has been pitching very well of late. In his last 7 starts Ubaldo has a 2.93 ERA and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. He does have a 5.36 ERA on the road, but in his last 4 away from home that ERA is 2.05. Both starters can and will shut down these offenses as this game hits 7 runs at best.
St. Louis/ Cincinnati Under 9: Kyle Lohse gets the call for the Cards today and he has been very consistent this year. Kyle Has a 2.79 ERA overall and a 2.79 ERA on the road. He has a 2.01 ERA in his last 7 starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any of those starts, while in his last 3 starts on the road he has allowed a total of 4 ER's. Kyle has also faced the Reds 5 times since 2009 and has a 1.41 ERA in those starts, not allowing more than 2 ER's in any of them and he should keep it going today vs a Cincy offense that has put up just 3.8 rpg in their last 11 games. The Cards offense hasn't been that great of late as well, as they have averaged just 4.2 rpg in their last 11 games, compared to their season average of 4.95 rpg. Mike Leake has a 5.15 ERA at home this year, but overall he has been pitching very good of late. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.88 ERA, while in his last 10 starts he has allowed more than 3 ER's in a game just once. He has been very consistent and should have a good showing vs a struggling Cards offense. I expect both starters to have good games in this one as the game hits around 7 runs at most.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Detroit/ Baltimore Under 9: Detroit's pitching has really been good of late as they have allowed just 2.7 rpg in their last 6 games. Max Scherzer has been pitching very well of late as well as he has a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed more than 3 ER's just once in his last 9 starts. Let's also note that none of his last 5 starts have put up more than 8 runs. He will be taking on a struggling Baltimore offense that has scored just 5 runs in their last 4 games and they have put up 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games at home. Wei-Yin Chen has struggled in his last 3 starts (6.62 ERA), but overall his numbers are not bad as he has a 3.93 ERA on the year, with just 7.6 rpg being scored in his starts. Chen has a 3.53 ERA at home and a 3.82 ERA in day starts, with his 6 day starts averaging just 7.2 rpg. Detroit can score as they average 4.5 rpg on the road, but they have never seen Chen and that gives him an advantage. I expect Chen to bounce back with a solid outing here, while Max continues to pitch well and keep this one at 8 or less. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- This situation doesn't come up much (15 times since 2006), but it has been profitable when it does. Since 2006 the UNDER is 13-2 when Detroit is a road favorite in a day game off a win in which they allowed 7 hits or less. An average of just 7.2 rpg have been scored in this spot.
TAMPA BAY -145 over Boston: Will Middlebrooks and Jacoby Elsbury are back for the Sox, but they did struggle last night (1-9 combined) and it may take some time for them to get their timing down. David Ortiz has been on a good run, but he is still 5-45 in his last 13 games in this park and 4-22 in his career vs David Price. Overall Sox hitters are just 22-105 (.210) with just 1 HR and 7 RBI's. David Price has been very good this year, going 11-4 with a 2.82 ERA, while at home he is 5-2 with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Clay Bucholz pitched very well before going on the DL (3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 3 starts), and while he still has an overall record of 8-2 ans a road record of 3-1 he still has high ERA's (5.53 overall and 5.71 on the road). Tampa's offense is struggling, but the Rays have hit .264 off of Clay in 144 AB's and should get some runs off him tonight. Its still gonna take time for Ellsbury and Middlebrooks to get their offensive swing back, and with the way that Ortix struggles in this park and vs Price and with the way that Price Pitches at home I have to feel that the struggling Rays should pick up a big win here.
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free play, let’s take a look at the Chicago Cubs to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.
This is a decent pitching matchup between two bad teams.
Ryan Dempster starts for the Cubs. He is 4-3 with a 1.99 ERA. In his last three starts, his ERA is 0.00 as he has not given up a run in 20 innings.
He has been on fire.
Joe Saunders stats for Arizona and he is 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a 2.89 ERA. He has been good, but not untouchable.
Arizona has had trouble scoring on the road, averaging only 3.6 runs on the road. The Cubs are not much better, averaging only 3.8 runs a game.
But the pitching matchup favors the Cubs.
The Cubs have been on a bit of a roll, winning three of their last four games, while the D-Backs have lost eight of their last 11 games.
The D-Backs will have trouble scoring here again and the Cubs will continue their small win streak.
Take the Cubs.
3♦ CUBS
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the Astros-Giants game.
On a real level, how in the world can you play any game that Tim Lincecum starts as and Under!?!?!
Lincecum was shelled once more his last time out - 3-plus innings pitched, 7 hits, 6 runs allowed - as the Freak's ERA for the year stands at an unimaginable 6.42!
Each of Lincecum's last pair of starts has landed Over the total, as have 10 of his last 13 overall. For the season, the Giants are 13-5 Over when Lincecum makes the start. Certainly hard to envision a low-scoring game here just because Lincecum has had a few extra days off to try and "iron things out".
Opposing will be Lucas Harrell, and his starts have been landing in the Over column with regularity this season, as 5 of Harrell's last 7 assignments have played high.
Last night's series opener did hold under the total, breaking a series 4 game Over clip dating back to last season. With Harrell and Lincecum (especially Linececum!) on the mound, you can expect things to get back to their offensive ways tonight.
With the series numbers on the high-side, and the pitchers not being able to keep the runs off the board, no other choice this Saturday night but to go Over the total with Harrell and Lincecum serving them up.
4♦ OVER
MATT RIVERS
On a 13-6 free play run, and taking a look at Saturday's card, there is one game that sticks out as a 2-1 final, and that is the Texas-Seattle meeting at Safeco Field.
The last time Felix Hernandez was on the mound for Seattle, the right-hander worked into the 8th inning in Oakland and allowed only one run to score. That marked the fourth time in his last five outings that Hernandez has allowed one run or less to cross the plate. No shock then that four of those last five starts have played Under the total.
Expect another Under when King Felix climbs the hill as he hooks up with All-Star Yu Darvish in a Saturday night pitcher's duel. Darvish has allowed a few runs to score his last pair of starts, but I am confident that he will be able to plow through the limited Seattle offense, and add to his 40 strikeouts in his last 30 innings pitched. Three of Darvish's last four starts have wound up Under the total, and this one will as well.
Dating back to before the break, the Rangers have played Unders in six in a row and niine of their last ten, while the Mariners have held Under in four of their last five and 13 of their last 16 overall.
Have to respect the Under trend, and more importantly respect the pitching prowess of both Darvish and Hernandez.
No more than four runs total in this game...Go Under.
2♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run continued last night, as I told you the Oakland A's would get it done in Minneapolis, and sure enough the Twins couldn't hang. Now at 76-45 with my complimentary play streak, I'm playing the New York Yankees as my free winner, as they're going to take advantage of an Angels team that might be deflated after last night's collapse.
Watching a 5-2 lead disappear thanks to Mark Teixeira's three-run bomb in the bottom of the eighth, the Angels saw the game slip away when the Yankees continued hitting the ball in their half of the frame to take an eventual 6-5 lead and roll to the win.
Now the Halos have to come back and take on New York's Freddy Garcia, who has a long, meaningful relationship with the Angels. The right-hander, who is in after shutting down the Red Sox in his last outing with 6-2/3 innings of one-run ball - easily his best start of the year - is 15-3 in his career vs. the Angels with a 2.59 ERA in 27 starts.
This is a great confidence game with him, as he easily will feed off the opportunity he's been fed from the rash of injuries to this starting rotation. If there were ever a time for him to step up and dominate - this is the game.
As for his run support, it should be okay there, as the Angels hand the ball to Jerome Williams, who is expected to be activated to start today, after spending time on the disabled list due to a recent asthma attack. He did make two Minor League rehab starts, giving up three runs (two earned) in six innings in his latest one, but these are the Yankees, and this is Yankee Stadium.
Play the home team here, list both and lay the straight chalk.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Chris Jordan
I am on a 15-6 run with my free picks, and after scoring the miraculous win on the New York Yankees last night at home against the Angels of Anaheim, I'm going against the other boys from NYC, as I play the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. And yes, I want you listing Tommy Hanson over R.A. Dickey.
Here's the deal, as good as Dickey has been, as much as he's looked like the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award winner this season, I can't get over the fact he's allowed five runs twice now, in his past three starts. That includes two Thursdays ago, when he was pelted for five earned runs on 11 hits against the struggling Philadelphia Phillies.
To his team's credit, the Mets staged a ninth-inning comeback and he avoided getting the loss. But I think teams might be figuring out what his arm is about, and how to get to him. I think we may see him stall a bit, and some of the senior circuit's other big names will begin to emerge.
That list would not be short of Hanson, who went into the All-Star break with double-digit victories for the second straight season, and whom I think will carry over his success into the second half en route to surpassing his career high of 11 wins. He's 10-5 with a 3.71 ERA on the year and this could prove to be a significant win for both him and the Braves, who opened the second half with last night's 7-5 win.
3♦ ATLANTA
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday is to take the Chicago Cubs over the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks. And I want you listing both pitchers, as I'm taking Ryan Dempster over Joe Saunders. This is a cheap price to pay with these two going, as Dempster is in after extending his scoreless-inning streak to 27 innings against the Mets. His start Sunday was his first off the DL, and he looked fantastic, cruising through five innings.
He's now won four straight starts, and even though he's just 4-3 on the year, he also has a rather stingy 1.99 ERA.
The Cubbies put it on the Snakes yesterday, after an elongated rain delay. I think Arizona could be in disappointment mode, and I don't see it recovering in this quick a turnaround.
List both pitchers, as Saunders is making his first start since being placed on the disabled list on June 23, and look for Chi-town to win again.
1♦ CHICAGO
Wunderdog
Oakland at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -120
Oakland got the better of the Twins last night, and they are an improved team back from the break. The Twins lost 99 games a year ago, but have shown signs of improvement too. The Twins are 14 games below the .500 mark, but that is deceiving as they are 21-18 over their last 39 games. Cole deVries has given them solid outings and is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his first five major league starts. In his last time out he was impressive, holding the hard-hitting Texas Rangers to three hits and no runs over 7 innings in Arlington. Tom Milone has given the A's four straight strong outings, but they are still just 1-7 in his last eight starts following a quality start in his last outing. The A's play down to the level of competition just 5-15 in their last 20 vs. a team with a home winning percentage of under .400. The Twins are grabbing the cash in four of their last five vs. a left-handed starter. Play on Minnesota.
Bryan Leonard
Pittsburgh +143
Can't pass up the Pirates at this underdog price with Correia on the mound. Not that Kevin is anything special but he has a reputation that is far worse than his ability. Like the Joe Blanton's and Freddy Garcia's of the world he continues to provide value while he is frowned upon by most baseball fans. Estrada hasn't started since the 3rd, 11 days ago although he did pitch well in relief right before the break. We like his talent but he hasn't been very consistent in his young career. To make him a sizable favorite here in our opinion would be a mistake. The Pirates are a confident bunch right now while the Brewers could be in for a personnel shakeup with Grienke already on the trading block and a rebuilding process likely on the way.