Tony Stoffo
Angels vs. Yankees
Play: Over 10.5
A beautiful day game in the Bronx in July equals a higher scoring game here as the Yankees and Angels will be smashing the ball all over Yankee stadium in this spot. Add in the fact that Williams will be matched up against Garcia here will only add to the over being the right side in this spot. First off Jerome Williams has gotten pounded as of late allowing 16 runs and 22 hits in just 16+ innings pitched resulting in a 7.56 ERA and 1.680 WHIP. Also if we look at Williams only other start in Yankee stadium you can see why the Yankees will be putting up some crooked innings up on the scoreboard here. Back on 4/15 Williams allowed 5 runs and hits hits as the Yankees chased him off the mound in the 3rd inning - can't see anything being different here today. While if we take a look at Freddy Garcia's home starts this season we will see he has a 13.49 ERA and a whopping 2.180 WHIP.
Joseph D'Amico
St.Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: St.Louis Cardinals
St. Louis stranded 11 runners yesterday, while hitting into 2 double-plays, and committed a fatal Error to give away the game to Cincinnati. The Cardinals are now 2 1/2 GB both NL Central 1st place teams, the Reds and Pirates. St. Louis wants their top spot back. Today, 1B, Lance Berkman is expected to be activated after injuring his knee and being out since May 19th. The powerful lineup ranks 4th in RPG with 4.93, 2nd in Team BA at .275, and 11th in HRs with 96 round-trippers. The team won 6 of 8 going into All-Star break. Today, Kyle Lohse gets the start. The RH is 9-2 with a 2.79 ERA on the season, including a road mark of 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA, and is 1-0 vs. Cincinnati this season. The Reds have won 4 in a row but three of the games were against the sad-sack Padres and it took a Cardinals mistake-riddled game to win yesterday. Outside of Joey Votto, consistency is an issue for the offense. Mike Leake gets the nod here. The RH is 3-6 with a 4.01 record on the season, going 1-3 with a 5.15 mark at home and lost his only starts vs. St. Louis. In his career, Leake is 1-2 with an ERA of 6.32 vs. the Cards. St Louis is 5-2 their L7 games played on the road, 10-4 their L14 games following a loss, and 4-1 in Lohses L5 starts against the Reds. Take St. Louis.
John Ryan
Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
5* graded play on the Oakland A?s as they take on the Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of this three game series set to start at 7:10 PM ET. The A?s got off a solid start for the second half and if they want to challenge the ?big boys? on the block in the American league West they have to put together something close to the Money Ball 20-game run. Yet, they don?t need to win every game in succession, but they do need to defeat the losing record teams, like the Twins, when the play them.
Oakland has won seven of the last 10 games and are nine games back of Texas in the AL West division. The A?s though are just 1 ? games from achieving a wild card berth. There are seven teams in the American League bunched together and separated by just 1 ? games. An eighth team, Toronto, is just 2 ? games behind. So, yes, Oakland has realistic expectations to make the playoffs.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 128-139 for just 48% winners, but has made 70.3 units per one unit wagered since 1997. The beauty of this system is that it has averaged a +163 dog play to make the small fortune in profits. Play against American League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season.
Here is a second system that has produced a 111-69 mark for 62% winners and has made 43.7 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on all American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season. The average play has been a +102 play, which is close to what the line is for this game.
Oakland has some of the best pitching in MLB ranking fourth with a staff ERA of 3.38, 10th with 51 quality starts, fifth with a 1.24 WHIP, and third allowing a .240 opponent batting average. They are arguably the worst hitting team in the majors, but their team averages have been steadily climbing over the last month and they are starting to score more runs per game. They have scored six runs twice in the last seven games, but where the A?s are strong is on defense where they have allowed no more than two runs in just two of the past eight games.
The Oakland bullpen is vastly superior to that of the Twins and this will be a major factor down the stretch in the late innings. The A?s have posted a 2.78 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP, allowing just 17 home runs in 87 games spanning 259 innings of work. In 45 road games they have posted a 2.99 ERA with a 1.203 WHIP and allowed just seven ?dingers? spanning 126 ⅓ innings of work.
By comparison, the Twins bullpen has posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.271 WHIP, and allowed 31 home runs in 86 games spanning 303 innings of work. In 43 home games, they have posted a 4.00 ERA and a 1.325 WHIP spanning 157 ⅔ innings of work.
The A?s starting pitcher Milone has been a great contributor to the teams? success this season. he has posted a 13-3 making 12.6 units per one unit wagered against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Twins are just 13-28 losing 13.8 units per one unit wagered when facing the money line in home games after three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Take the Oakland A?s.
Michael Alexander
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox
CHICAGO is 14-3 in their last 17 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150
CHICAGO is 8-1 in Peavys last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150
KANSAS CITY is 6-15 in Hochevars last 21 starts as a home underdog