Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 17,2010

Marc Lawrence
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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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The Tigers and Indians meet in a rescheduled afternoon makeup at Progressive Park in Cleveland when Justin Verlander matches serves with Fausto Carmona. Verlander has scalped the Tribe in each of his last six team starts and is 15-5 in his last 20 starts overall and 14-6 in his last 20 starts during July. With Verlander in commanding KW form with five walks and 23 strikeouts in his last three starts, and Carmona in struggling KW form with 10 walks and nine K's over the same span, look for the Tigers to improve to 13-2 in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Lee Kostroski

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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Jorge De La Rosa has spent most of the season on the disabled list this season but after a career year in 2009 his return should provide a boost to the Rockies in the thick of the National League West race. His first start back occurred right before the All Star break and it was a forgettable outing. De La Rosa allowed just six hits and picked up six strikeouts but he also was tagged for seven runs in an eventual 10-8 Colorado win. De La Rosa should bounce back as few balls were hit hard against him and getting away from Coor’s Field could be helpful as he rounds back into form.
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The Reds will hope Edinson Volquez can help in the rotation in their pennant chase but the right-hander who enjoyed a brilliant 2008 season has not pitched in the big leagues in over 13 months. Volquez underwent Tommy John surgery and his rehab starts in the minors have been fairly successful, clearing the way for an ahead of schedule return. He will be closely monitored and will not likely go deep into this game however. With both starters coming back from injuries the bullpens should play a critical role in this game and Colorado has featured a significant edge over Cincinnati in that area.
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Colorado has owned the Reds in the recent history of this series, winning all seven meetings in 2009 and taking five of six in 2008. That included beating Volquez twice in 2008 and De La Rosa allowed just two hits in his only start in that span with that game also coming on the road in Cincinnati. Colorado closed the first half of the season on a 19-8 run as the Rockies have quietly passed the Reds in terms of overall record despite still being stuck in a very tight NL West race. The Rockies are also 20-9 this season in the second games of a series, faring exceptionally well regardless of the game 1 result.
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Cincinnati entered the break having lost five of six games and the Reds are getting inconsistent performances on offense. The Reds are hitting just .237 in the last ten games compared with a red hot run from the Rockies, hitting .341 in the final ten games before the break. The Rockies scored at least four runs in each of those ten games and Colorado has been a much better road team this season than the historical numbers suggest. De La Rosa appears to be in a better position to deliver a quality start as Volquez is a wild card at this point. Banking on the superior bullpen and an offense that is clicking should provide an advantage.

JIM FEIST
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DETROIT TIGERS / CLEVELAND INDIANS
PLAY: DETROIT TIGERS
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Game 1 (Tigers) : The Tigers led at the break last season before letting the Twins catch them on the last day of the season and subsequently losing in a playoff game. The pill is still bitter in the mouth of the Tigers as they start the second half in 2010. The Tigers are hoping they can have a better second half and win their first division title in 23 years. The Tigers have done well at Cleveland. Heading into this series, the Tigers were 8-3 in their last 11 trips to Cleveland since 2009 and 20-6 overall. A team they have dominated in recent years. They get a twin-bill here on Saturday and it's the first game I'm looking at playing. The reason I like the first game is the pitching matchup. Justin Verlander starts game one for the Tigers and he has won his last three starts with a 3.26 ERA, walked just five and KO'd 23! Verlander is having a great season with an overall 11-5 mark and 3.82 ERA on the season. Fausto Carmona will start for the Tribe. Carmona is 8-7 this season with a 3.64 ERA. I don't mind laying prices on the road under the right circumstances. And this is it, the Tigers have handled the Indians very well since last year and Verlander is pitching as well as anyone on the staff. Take the Tigers in game 1 here on Saturday.

Jeff Hochman
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: St Louis Cardinals
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I had this match-up at -175 before looking at the lines. Adam Wainwright's quality start streak at Busch Stadium currently sits at 24 games best all-time in Major League history. The Dodgers are 5-21 L26 in St. Louis. I always get excited when the Dodgers visit St. Louis every season. It's like Money in the bank. I watch more Dodgers' games than any other team and something just doesn't seem right.

John Ryan
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Dodgers will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 122-111 making 67 units since 1997. The average play has been a dog of +145. This is analogous to playing Black Jack and getting paid $1.45 for every winning $1.00 hand. The system has played 233 “hands” won just a little better than 50% of the plays and you walk out of the casino making $6700 dollars playing $100 “hands”. These are the types of situations that under score the model projections for our DOG plays in MLB. Our sports handicapping model/simulator clearly identifies more dogs than favorites over the course of a MLB season and this exploits public opinion that effects the money and Run Lines. Just last night we nailed home another 15* RUN LINE play in the Rays in a game they clearly could have won. Just another supporting situation is the fact that skipper Torre is a solid 20-11 (+10.1 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better as the manager of the Dodgers. Take the Dodgers and give me a ONE week commitment and you will have a tremendous opportunity to learn how we make money.

Cajun Sports
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays look to take the first two games of this three-game set in Baltimore on Saturday. We know they are 22-9 as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. Baltimore is 3-19 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start and 6-19 versus an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. The Orioles will send Jeremy Guthrie to the bump knowing he is 8-30 against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to Play Against MLB AL home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a team that hits 0.9 or less homeruns per game facing a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less homeruns per start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season. Playing against these teams has produced a record of 21-3 the last five seasons and 6-1 this season. Play the Blue Jays as they take another game from the hapless Baltimore Orioles on Saturday.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 5 Baltimore Orioles 3

Tom Freese
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Texas at Boston
Play: Texas
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Texas starter Cliff Lee has won 4 of his last 5 starts. The Rangers are 11-2 their last 13 road games. Texas is 7-2 their last their last 9 road games vs. righty starters and they are 18-8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Boston starter John Lackey has lost his last 2 starts allowing 11 runs in 12 innings of work. The Red Sox are 2-7 their last 9 games overall and they are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Boston is 0-6 their 6 games vs. a team with a winning record.

EZWINNERS
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Los Angeles Angels -171
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The Angels starting pitcher Joe Saunders has not had the type of season so far that the Angels had expected. Saunders has gone 6-9 so far this season with a 4.76 ERA in eighteen starts, but he could be in for a big second half of the season. Saunders has gone 13-4 in the second half of the season the last two years and he has had a lot of success against these Mariners in the past posting an 8-1 career record against Seattle. The Mariners send Ryan Rowland-Smith to the mound for this game and he has had a horrible season. Rowland-Smith was surprisingly effective as a finesse pitcher over the last couple of seasons, but he has been hit hard this season as his walk rate has risen and his strikeout rate has fell. Rowland-Smith is just 1-9 with an ERA of 5.89 and he is also 0-2 in four career starts against the Angels. The Angels are 11-1 in Saunders' last twelve starts against the Mariners and Seattle has lost thirteen of Rowland-Smith's last sixteen starts overall. Play on Los Angeles.

MTi Sports
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Dodgers at Cardinals
Prediction: Over
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Kuroda is off a fine start against Josh Johnson and the Marlins. He allowed six hits and no walks in seven innings but the Dodgers were shut out and he took the loss. Hiroki has struggled in this spot, as the Dodgers are 9-0 OU with Kuroda when he went at least 6 innings and give up 6 or fewer hits in his last start. Wainwright went eight and nine innings in his last two starts and faced 30 and 31 batters respectively. The Cardinals are 7-0 OU with Wainwright when he faced 30 or more hitters on the road in his last start, flying over the posted total by an average of 6.1 runs. Yikes. Take these two OVER.

Hollywood Sports
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Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
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Carl Pavano sports a 10-6 record with a 3.58 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He may be just what the doctor ordered for Minnesota to slow down the white-hot White Sox has the Twins have won five of their last six games against teams with a winning record with Pavano taking the ball. The veteran faces Mark Buerhle with his 8-7 record which accompanies a 4.24 ERA and and a high 1.43 WHIP. Expect Buerhle to struggle in this spot as the Twins have won 41 of their last 57 opportunities against a left-handed starter. And despite Chicago's hot streak of late, they have still lost five of their last seven games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range.
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Additionally, there is an underlying sabermetric statistic we find intriguing that favors Pavano over Buehrle in this contest: Batting Average for line-drive Balls put Into Play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .720-.725 range. Buerhle is allowing .734 of the line-drives hit off him to be base hits. We surmise that this statistic is indicative of the fact that Buerhle is susceptible to losing this "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle from time-to-time. On the other hand, Pavano has a lower .710 LD BABIP this season which is encouraging regarding his overall efforts this season. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starters Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.

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Edmonton Eskimos at Saskatchewan Roughriders
Prediction: Edmonton Eskimos
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Despite being 0-2 this season, Edmonton remains a solid team who return most of the roster that made the playoffs last season. The Eskimos' QB Ricky Ray leads an offense that has the potential to be dynamite with a super set of wide receivers. Ricky Stamps led the CFL with his 1402 reception yards last season. He is joined by Kamau Peterson who was 3rd in total receiving yards and 2nd in catches just two years ago. But the exciting "X-Factor" is the return of Kelly Campbell who took a run with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season. The former Georgia Tech star blossomed in his rookie season in Edmonton in '08 by leading the CFL with his 22.6 yards-per-reception average. This offense accumulated 443 yards against the defending Grey Cup Champion Montreal Alouettes last week but had trouble scoring in the red zone. Both Stamps and Campbell dropped what would have been touchdown receptions. In other words, Edmonton is better than their 0-2 record (and perceived value). They should play tough against the 2-0 Roughriders club that has failed to cover in seven of their last eight games against teams with a losing record. We look for a letdown here for Saskatchewan here as they were only 5-4-1 ATS at home last season. Take Edmonton plus the points on Saturday.

JR O'Donnell
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Met's / Giants Over 7
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The Met's are in a Nasty mood after the San Fran Giants fire a 3 hitter last night and they have a huge power failure in San Fran last night. The Met's will avoid being shut out tonight for a 3rd time as they have the ball well, but right at people, The Met's will get to M Cain tonight. The Giants Cain was pounded last outing and on July 9th gave up 8 runs..ouch, The Met's counter with over achieving Hisanori Takahashi 7-3, 4.15 who the San Fran Giants will get a few off of tonight.

BIG AL
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Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
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Yesterday, the Brewers went into Turner Field, and shocked the Tommy Hanson and the Braves, winning 9-3 behind Randy Wolf. Today, however, should be a much different story, as lefty Chris Narveson matches up against veteran Timmy Hudson. Hudson has been brilliant this season, compiling a 2.30 ERA in 19 starts, with a 1.12 WHIP. And, over his previous three outings, he's been exceptional, with an ERA of 1.23 and a WHIP below 1.0 (0.95, to be precise). In his last start, Hudson scattered four hits in seven innings, and bested Mike Pelfrey and the Mets 4-0. And, in Hudson's previous start vs. the Brewers (in Milwaukee), the Braves blasted the Brew Crew 11-3 (Hudson gave up 1 run in six innings in that game). In contrast, Narveson has been heading south of late. His ERA over his last three starts is a miserable 7.16, and it's 6.02 on the season. His last start was particularly bad, as he surrendered 9 earned runs and nine hits in 3 1-3 innings. The Braves are a superb 43-18 as a favorite, including 28-8 as a home favorite this season. Take Atlanta.

Jimmy Boyd

1* on St. Louis Cardinals -162

Adam Wainwright has been literally unbeatable at home this season. In 9 starts in St. Louis he is 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He's also 3-0 over his last 3 starts, posting a 0.39 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in those appearances. The Dodgers' Hiroki Kuroda is 4-4 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road this season. Over his last 3 appearances he's 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Cardinals are 29-15 at home this season and Wainwright has been unstoppable for them at Busch.

BEN BURNS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Cubs have taken the first two games of this series. The Phillies have a solid shot at bouncing back and grabbing this afternoon's contest though.
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Hamels gets the call for the visitors and he's been pitching very well of late. Last time out, he tossed 7 1/3 shutout innings vs. the Reds. That marked the third straight start that he went seven or more innings and the third straight time that he allowed three earned runs or less. During that stretch, he's gone 2-1 with a stellar 2.49 ERA. Looking back further and we find that he's gone seven or more innings in six of his last seven starts, also allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven.

Note that Hamels is 3-1 with an outstanding 2.61 ERA in five starts vs. the Cubs.
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Wells goes for the Cubs. He's had a few quality starts but has been mostly inconsistent. For the season, he's 4-7 with a poor 4.61 ERA.

With this being an early game, note that Wells has been much better at night than he has been during the day. In nine evening starts, he's got a 3.86 ERA. In nine afternoon starts, he's got a 5.47 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .251 against him at night but a whopping .317 during the day.
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I played on Chicago in the first game of this series. That was due in part to the fact that I thought the Cubs might be slightly "hungrier" to start the second half on a winning note and that the Phillies may have a bit of an "All Star hangover." However, off back to back losses, now its the Phillies who should be feeling some urgency. Consider Philadelphia