SEAN MURPHY
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Rays have to feel that they wasted an opportunity to steal a win at Yankee Stadium last night.
James Shields gave them six strong innings, but their bullpen ultimately let them down, blowing a 4-3 lead in the eighth innings, and eventually giving up the winning run in the ninth.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Both of these teams entered this series red hot, but of course the Yankees have the advantage of playing at home, where they're now 29-13 on the season. With last night's victory, New York is now 9-1 over its last 10 and 16-6 over its last 22 ball games.
The Rays have won 10 of their last 13 games overall, but they're now just 2-2 over their last four contests.
Jeff Niemann will get the call for the visiting Rays on Saturday. He's having an outstanding season, going 7-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.09 WHIP to date. However, he was forced to leave his last start early due to back trouble, and while he felt fine following a bullpen session on Thursday, there's no telling how he'll perform on Saturday.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
What could hurt Niemann on Saturday is his recent tendency to leave the ball up in the zone. Since the start of June he's posted a 64:92 ground ball to fly ball ratio. On a hot day in the Bronx, the Yankees bats should be able to take advantage of that fact.
The current Yankees roster is hitting just .286 and slugging .327 against Niemann, but all nine players that have faced him have recorded at least one hit, and no player has more than nine at-bats against him.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
A.J. Burnett will counter for the Yankees. After a disastrous month of June that saw him go 0-5 and post an 11.35 ERA, Burnett has turned the corner. In two July starts, he's 1-0 with a sparkling 1.32 ERA. He's allowed just nine hits in his last 13 2/3 innings of work.
Burnett has been at his best at Yankee Stadium this season, going 3-2 with a 2.96 ERA while holding opponents to a .249 average. Compare that to his 4-5, 6.06, .293 road numbers.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The current Rays roster has amassed 224 at-bats against Burnett, and is hitting just .246 and slugging .384. Note that the Yankees are 5-2 in his seven starts against them since the beginning of last season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
It's going to take quite an effort to overcome the Yankees on a weekend where they honor George Steinbrenner and Bob Sheppard. We saw that last night, and I expect a similarly gutsy performance from the Bronx Bombers on Saturday. Take New York.
Info Plays
3* on Toronto Blue Jays -133
Reasons the Blue Jays win:
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL. This is a 48-10 ML System hitting 82.8% since 1997.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
2.) Toronto is 7-0 against Baltimore this season. Bet the Blue Jays on the road.
Rocketman
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Two fairly evenly matched teams here this year with the NY Mets coming in with a record of 48-42 on the season and San Francisco comes in at 49-41 this year. NY Mets are 1-5 this year on the road when the total is 7 or less. San Francisco is 36-14 last 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. NY Mets have lost 5 of their last 6 games overall. San Francisco has won 8 of their last 9 games overall. NY Mets bullpen has a 5.29 ERA on the road this year. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.16 ERA overall this year and a 1.95 ERA at home on the season. Hisanori Takahashi has a 9.20 ERA his last 3 starts. Matt Cain has a 3.34 ERA overall this year and a 2.63 ERA at home on the season. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
INSIDER ANGLES
DETROIT VS. CLEVELAND
There is no doubt that Mitch Talbot is having a solid season for the Cleveland Indians this year while Rick Porcello has been terrible at the Major League level for the Detroit Tigers, but there is reason to believe Porcello can pitch the Tigers to victory on Saturday.
Porcello has had a fall from grace for the Tigers since going 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in his rookie year least season, as he was 4-7 with a 6.14 ERA in 14 starts for Detroit this year before being sent to the minor leagues after his June 19 Tiger start. He has continued to work every fifth day in the minors though, and reports are that his fourth and final minor league start was his best yet, as he tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing just six hits with seven strikeouts.
This seems like a perfect time for Porcello to make his return to the big leagues, as the Indians entered play on Friday with a pathetic .223 team batting average on their last 10 games while averaging a lowly 3.50 runs per game. Also, as bad a year as Porcello was having before being demoted, he still managed to allow three earned runs or less in both of his starts vs. Cleveland, meaning he has now allowed three earned or less in all six of his career starts against the Tribe.
Now Talbot just may be the ace of the Indians staff right now, as he is 8-8 while pitching for a team that is 20 games under .500 with a nice 3.99 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. However, he was not as sharp as usual in his last start vs. Texas, allowing four earned runs and 10 baserunners in 5.2 innings, and he has failed to record a Quality Start in two outings vs. these Tigers in 2010, surrendering a total of eight earned runs and 21 baserunners in only 10 innings of work.
Unlike the Tribe, the Tigers have also been scoring the ball lately, entering Friday with a .296 team batting average the last 10 games while averaging a spiffy 5.50 runs per game. Look for that onslaught to continue here.
Pick: Tigers -125
BOB WINGERTER
Toronto Blue Jays -128
It's been an absolutely horrific season for the Baltimore Orioles as they have the worst record in all of baseball. The second half of the season began much like the entire first half went as Baltimore lost again, this time to the Toronto Blue Jays. Brad Bergesen allowed nine hits and four earned runs in six innings of work to take his seventh loss of the year as the Orioles used five pitchers total. Ty Wigginton, Felix Pie, and Julio Lugo all had two hits each but it only led to two runs which wasn't half enough to match Toronto. The loss puts Baltimore 28 games back in the American League East and makes the birds 5-5 in their last 10 games. For game two of the series Baltimore starts Jeremy Guthrie who has had a rough year individually. For the season Guthrie has allowed 112 hits and 59 earned runs while striking out 57 in 111 and a third innings of work. The Toronto Blue Jays got back to .500, a mark they have been better than for the bulk of the season. Aaron Hill hit his 13th home run of the year and had three hits while Fred Lewis had two hits and scored twice to pace the offense. Ricky Romero allowed five hits and two runs while striking out five to get his seventh win of the year. Toronto has gone 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been outscored by their opponents by a total of one run all season. Toronto looks to get over the .500 mark as they start Brandon Morrow who didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his last start. For the season Morrow has allowed 99 hits and 54 earned runs while striking out 111 in 100 innings of work. Baltimore is 4-2 in their last six home games as an underdog, 33-73 in their last 106 overall, 1-5 in Guthrie's last six starts as a home underdog, and 5-3 in their last eight home games. Toronto is 5-10 in their last 15 games overall, 2-4 in their last six against the AL East, 4-1 in Morrow's last five starts as a favorite, and 2-6 in their last eight road games. Toronto has won the last seven meetings in this series.
WUNDERDOG
Houston at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -120
The Houston Astros have struggled on the road and when Bud Norris takes the mound, they have been outscored by over 2 runs a game in all of his starts, posting just two wins in his eight starts for the season. Ross Olendorf has just one win on the season, but the numbers are deceptive as he has pitched to a fairly decent 4.22 ERA - certainly more deserving of a single win. The Pirates are scoring 2 runs per game in his 13 starts, and sooner or later those numbers even out. The Astros sport just a 21-53 mark in their last 74 posted as a road dog, and just 16-44 on the road vs. a right-hand pitcher. I'll go with Pittsburgh in this one.
JOEL TYSON
The Reds halted a 4 game losing streak with the win last night at home over the Rockies, and I like them again tonight to beat the poor-traveling Rocks.
Coloardo is just 18-24 on the highway, and starter Jorge De la Rosa has allowed and alarming 11 runs to score over his last 14 innings of work.
Edinson Volquez makes his much-anticipated debut tonight, and with a 28-19 home field record, it is hard to go against Cincy in their own ball park.
Take the Reds to make it 2 in a row over the Rockies.
4♦ CINCINNATI
JEFF BENTON
Missed with Friday’s freebie on the White Sox, but I remain on a 103-71-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, we’ll play Tampa Bay as a road underdog at the Yankees.
I often like to say that you can’t argue with perfection, and the fact is the Rays are a perfect 8-0 when big Jeff Niemann pitches on the road. Not only are they 8-0, but they’ve outscored the opposition 56-30, with Niemann posting a solid 3.15 ERA (slightly higher than his overall 2.77 ERA).
On the other hand, the Yankees are just 4-3 when A.J. Burnett pitches in the Bronx, losing three of his last four home outings. That includes a 10-6 defeat to the Rays back on May 19, when Burnett got tagged for six runs on nine hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings. And overall, the Yankees are just 1-6 in Burnett’s last seven times out, losing five of six as a favorite.
Back to Niemann. He’s been an outstanding for Tampa Bay going back to last season, and that’s proven by the numbers. In addition to winning all eight of his road contests this season, the Rays are 16-5 in his last 21 starts overall, 6-0 in his last six against the A.L. East, 6-0 in his last six Saturday contests and 17-2 when he pitches the second game of a series.
Despite a tough 5-4 loss on Friday, the Rays come into today having won eight of their last 10 overall, including four of six on the highway. And they continue to sport baseball’s top road record at 28-15. That includes two wins in three tries at Yankee Stadium this season. Speaking of this rivalry, Niemann has held his own in three career starts against New York (all last year as a rookie), giving up just five runs (no home runs) in 15 1/3 innings, with the Rays winning two of the three games.
5♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS
Bobby Maxwell
Tonight's FREE winner is coming on the Reds as they will wipe out the Rockies in Cincinnati for the second night in a row.
This is a very interesting time for the Rockies as they have embarked on an 11-game road trip, opening up with a three-game set in Cincinnati. The Reds took the first game on Friday night, 3-2, and now they get their ace back on the hill after missing the entire season as Edinson Volquez makes his season debut.
Volquez hasn’t pitched in the majors since June 2009, but he has made six minor league starts to get ready for his comeback and he’s looked very good. On July 9 in Louisville, he shut out Toledo for seven innings, allowing just one hit with nine strikeouts. He only allowed five earned runs in his six rehab starts, covering 31 innings.
You’ll remember he was acquired from the Rangers in the deal for Josh Hamilton a few years ago and quickly became the ace of the Reds staff in 2008, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA. He started 2009 quite well, opening 4-2 before tearing up his arm and undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Colorado is starting lefty Jorge DeLaRosa who made his comeback start on July 9 at home against the Padres after missing six weeks with a finger injury. He allowed seven runs in just 4.1 innings in that comeback start and honestly didn’t look good in his last minor league rehab start either, allowing eight runs in 4.2 innings to Salt Lake City on July 3.
Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine road games as an underdog, while the Reds are on streaks of 6-2 at home, 7-3 on Saturday, 15-5 at home against left-handed starters and 14-6 dating back when Volquez faced a team with a winning record.
Two pitchers who are making comebacks in this one and I’m playing the home team Reds to get the win behind Volquez.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Karl Garrett
Friday free play winner on Texas from the G-Man, and now for Saturday, I am going with the Yankees over the Rays.
Big win last night from New York to make it 9 of their last 10 on the right side. The Yankees have also won 13 of their last 21 at home versus the Rays, and the G-Man will back them again today to post the win.
It will be Jeff Niemann and AJ Burnett, and Burnett has been coming on strong as his last 2 starts show 14 innings of 2 run ball.
Niemann has not lost away from home yet this season at 4-0, but with Burnett 4-1 his last 5 starts against Tampa, and with this being Old Timers Day at Yankee Stadium, the G-Man will look for the karma to prevail, and for the Yankees to post another win over their nearest competitor in the AL East.
Take New York over Tampa Bay.
4♦ NY YANKEES
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from Kansas City, as I’ll back the A’s as a slight road favorite against the Royals.
All about Oakland right-hander Trevor Cahill in this one. Cahill is 9-3 with a 2.94 ERA in 15 starts this season, 11 of which the A’s have won. And if you take away two poor outings – his season debut against the Blue Jays (eight runs, six earned, in five innings) and a start against the Yankees 11 days ago (six runs in six innings), Cahill would be 9-1 with a 2.46 ERA in 13 contests, with Oakland going 11-2!
Also, Oakland is a perfect 5-0 in Cahill’s last five starts on the road, with the Southern California native allowing just nine runs in 31 innings (2.61 ERA). And when Cahill faced the Royals twice in his rookie season last year, he led his team to blowout victories of 12-3 and 10-4.
In fact, the A’s – who crushed K.C. last night – are 7-2 against the Royals since the start of last season, and they’ve now won 31 of their last 40 games at Kaufmann Stadium in Kansas City. Additionally, Oakland has won eight of its last 10 overall against losing teams and six of its last eight on the road.
4♦ OAKLAND A'S
Stephen Nover
I am 39-22-1 on my last 62 free selections. My complementary selection on the Saturday card is backing Trevor Cahill and Oakland as a short road favorite against Kansas City and Bruce Chen.
Cahill has emerged this season. He's 9-3 with a 2.94 ERA. He rates a big edge against Chen, a journeyman who has surrendered five home runs in his last four games.
Cahill has given up two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. Oakland is 6-1 the past seven times Cahill has been on the hill. The A's have won the last seven times Cahill has been chalk.
The Royals had a rare sellout crowd on Friday night with Zach Greinke on the mound. But the Royals lost 5-1. That had to be discouraging for them.
The A's usually do well when playing in Kansas City where they are 31-10 in their last 41 visits.
2♦ OAKLAND
Derek Mancini
While most bettors are convinced we'll see another Padres rout here tonight, I'm warning my clients to take the blinders off. The Snakes will be looking to bounce back here after yesterday's 12-1 ass-whipping, and with Richard having some issues of late, this pitching match up is a lot closer than you think.
Richard (6-4, 3.33 ERA) went into the break struggling, posting an 8.49 ERA over his L2 starts. His fastball command has been the issue, and with 7 walks over that span, the talented but slumping southpaw is vulnerable in this match up. Despite some recent struggles, Arizona does average a healthy 5.6 runs per game against lefties on the road.
We find the opposite situation true with Arizona's starter, Rodrigo Lopez (5-7, 4.40 ERA). He went into the break strong, going 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA over his L3 starts. That includes an impressive road effort in Tampa, where he allowed 1 run on just 2 hits over 6 innings June 27th. That shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise, being that Lopez has been far more effective on the road this season (3.74 ERA away vs 4.95 at home).
At this price, Lopez is a very attractive play here... With a majority of bettors blindly playing San Diego (without considering the factors mentioned above), the situation is ripe for a bounce back win here from the Snakes. Now let's go grab that plus money with Arizona (Lopez) over San Diego (Richard) Saturday.
3♦ ARIZONA
BRETT ATKINS
Hit my third straight free winner on Friday night when the Twins took out the White Sox in Minnesota. Tonight I have a fourth straight comp winner for you as I go with the A's on the road in Kansas City.
I am jumping all over this one with Oakland’s Trevor Cahill on the mound against the Royals.
Oakland has won five straight road games with Cahill starting and they have won six of his last seven overall. He is 9-3 on the season with a 2.94 ERA and he’s held the opposition to three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings.
Cahill shut down the Angels on Sunday, giving up one unearned run on five hits in seven innings of a 5-2 Oakland victory. He also has two wins over the Royals from last season when the A’s rolled, 10-4 and 12-3.
Kansas City is on several negative trends, including 12-27 at home against teams with losing records and an amazing 52-117 on Saturdays. Meanwhile, Oakland is 7-0 when Cahill is a favorite and 4-0 when he faces losing teams.
Play Oakland in this one behind the pitching of Cahill.
5♦ OAKLAND
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Houston +1.09 over PITTSBURGH
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Well, when the chalk goes 12-3 like it did last night, chances are this section is not going to do very good and that’s precisely what happened. The only dogs to win last night were the Brewers, Indians and A’s. What’s incredible is that the Astros are a pooch against the Pirates and win or lose here, the Astros are simply a must play. Bud Norris is 2-6 with a 5.97 ERA and those ugly looking stats are the reason why the Astros are the underdog here. Not to worry. Norris can pitch and his stock is way undervalued so buy now. Norris had started to show some signs of his potential in May, maintaining a significant strikeout rate and improving on his control and GB rate (43%). These improvements are hidden behind a season ERA of 5.97, more than 1.5 points higher than his xERA (4.14). Overall, Norris has 69 K's in 63 IP and that's a very impressive number. The Astros are 20-19 over its last 39 games while the Pirates may not win 50 games this year. Russ Ohlendorf has been sharp in three straight starts but don’t get baited by that. Prior to that he allowed 15 runs in 16 innings and in his career he’s 0-6 vs the Astros with an ERA of 6.55. Anyway, the bottom line is that the Astros are the superior team with the superior pitcher and anytime you can take back anything against a team that wins about three out of every 10 games you should strongly consider it. Play: Houston +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.68 over Colorado
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Edinson Volquez makes his first major league start in over a year after Tommy John surgery but we’ve seen a whole slew of pitchers return from TJ surgery and look better than new. Volquez will be pumped right up and so will the players and fans alike. In four minor-league rehab starts leading up to this, Volquez completely dominated. In fact, he went 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA after allowing just 14 hits in 31 IP for a BAA of .135. In his last outing on July 9, he threw a one-hitter in seven frames. This guy is a proven pitcher with outstanding stuff and he certainly looks ready. You should probably be more concerned with Jorge De La Rosa than with Volquez. De La Rosa is fresh off the DL with just one start. In that start just before the break he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings at home against the Padres. De La Rosa is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA in eight career games against the Reds and when you combine that with his shaky start off the DL, you have a very fragile pitcher going out there. The Reds faced a tough pitcher in Jason Hammel last night and won 3-2. However, they were in a position to break it wide open a few times and just missed. De La Rosa won’t be as fortunate. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.68 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto –1½ +1.26 over BALTIMORE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
You could lay the 25¢ if you like and it sure wouldn’t be a bad bet based on the starters, bullpens and everything else. We’ll lay the 1½-runs and here’s why: Jeremy Guthrie is coming off back-to-back disasters in which he was removed after four innings in each, allowing 10 earned runs in eight IP, with a 2/8 K/BB. The erosion of Guthrie's skills was underway prior to the last two starts, as his 11/16 K/BB over his last five starts suggests. As a fly-ball pitcher (42% FB%), Guthrie is HR-prone (1.2 hr/9), which does not bode well when facing the game's top HR-hitting offense in Camden Yards, a park conducive to the bomb. Brandon Morrow is an enigma for sure. This guy is hugely talented but too often comes up with a bad game. He was rocked in his last game against the Red Sox and has now pitched in consecutive games against Boston and the Yanks. Even after Saturday's poor showing, Morrow has a 3.06 ERA and 46/15 K/BB in his last eight starts (50 innings). Morrow is too good to be showing such mediocre stats (overall a 5-6 record with a 4.86 ERA) and now he takes a big step down in class when facing these beatable O’s. This guy needs a win on the road and it says here he gets it in dominating fashion. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).