SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (50-38) at Florida (46-46)
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The red-hot Phillies will try to make it three in a row over the Marlins and eight in a row overall when they send Joe Blanton (6-4, 4.44 ERA) to the mound at Land Shark Stadium to face the Marlins and their ace, Josh Johnson (8-2, 2.74).
Philadelphia scored a 6-5 win in 12 innings on Friday, plating two runs in the 12th and surviving a shaky bottom of the inning from closer Brad Lidge for the win. The Phils have now won eight of their last 10 against the Marlins, including seven straight in Florida, plus 11 of their last 12 overall and 15 of their last 21 divisional games. They also continue to have baseball’s best road mark at 28-15.
Even with back-to-back losses Thursday and Friday, Florida has won 10 of its last 13 at home and is 16-5 in its last 21 as a favorite.
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Blanton finished the first half in style, going 2-0 in his final three starts with a 1.83 ERA. He blanked the Mets at home on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 win on July 5 and then allowed one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 3-2 home win over the Pirates on July 10. He dominated the Marlins back on May 26, blanking them on five hits over seven innings of a 5-3 win, striking out 11 and walking two.
The Phillies are a perfect 3-0 in games Blanton has started against Florida over the last two seasons. Philadelphia is also 11-4 in his last 15 outings against the N.L. East, but 0-4 in his last four as a ‘dog and 0-4 in his last four against teams with winning records.
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Johnson has been a beast in South Beach this season, going 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 outings overall, and on Sunday he held the Diamondbacks to one run on seven hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-1 victory.
Johnson faced the Phillies on April 24 and shut them down on three hits for seven innings, but got a no-decision in his team’s 7-3 loss. Florida is 4-2 in his six starts against Philadelphia since 2006, and with Johnson pitching, the Fish are on additional runs of 25-8 overall, 13-3 at home, 23-6 against N.L. East foes, 5-0 on Saturdays and 13-3 as a favorite.
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With Blanton on the mound, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-1-2 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 on the road against teams with a winning record. As a team, Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 9-4 overall, 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 against the N.L. East and 5-0 in the third game of a series.
With Johnson pitching, Florida is on “under” runs of 5-2-2 as a home favorite, 5-1-3 as a favorite and 4-1-1 at home against winning teams. As a team, the Marlins carry “under” trends of 8-3-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Saturdays and 5-2 against teams with winning records.
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Finally, in this series, the over is 54-24-3 in the last 81 meetings in Florida and 5-1 in Johnson’s last six starts against the Phillies, but the “under” is 4-1 in the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Detroit (48-40) at N.Y. Yankees (52-37)
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The Tigers are slated to send All-Star Justin Verlander (10-4, 3.38 ERA) to the mound opposite lefty CC Sabathia (8-6, 3.86) at Yankee Stadium as Detroit tries to stop a three-game losing streak to the Bronx Bombers.
New York used a three-run seventh inning to score a 5-3 win over the Tigers on Friday, snapping a three-game team losing skid that stretched to last weekend’s series at the Angels. New York is 22-9 in the last 31 meetings with the Tigers in the Big Apple and 5-1 in the last six clashes overall.
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The Yankees are on further streaks of 14-5 overall, 23-6 against the A.L. Central, 10-2 against right-handed starters and 13-5 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Detroit is just 4-11 in its last 15 roadies and 2-8 in its last 10 against the A.L. East, but the Tigers are on runs of 7-3 against winning teams and 18-8 against southpaws.
Verlander entered the All-Star break with a gem, blanking the Indians on five hits over six innings en route to Sunday’s 10-1 home victory. The veteran right-hander has won consecutive starts – notching 19 strikeouts in the process – and he’s given up three earned runs or fewer in 13 of his last 15 outings. However, he’s just 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA in 11 road starts, including 0-2 with a 7.04 ERA in his last three as a visitor (all Detroit losses).
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Verlander is 3-1 with a 4.85 ERA in five career regular-season starts against New York, including a dominating 4-2 home win on April 27 when he scattered seven hits and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings, beating Sabathia. In fact, these two hurlers have faced off five times over the years, with Verlander going 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA, compared with Sabathia’s 2-3 mark with a 6.21 ERA.
Sabathia has been hit hard lately, giving up 12 runs in his last 19 1/3 innings, losing two of the three starts. Last time he pitched in front of the home fans, he allowed six runs on 10 hits over 5 2/3 innings of an 8-4 loss to the Mariners. In the April 27 start against Detroit, the hefty lefty allowed four runs on six hits in eight innings. Going back to his days with the Indians, Sabathia is 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts against Detroit, yielding four runs or more in half of those 10 outings.
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Detroit is on “under” runs of 12-3 overall, 8-1 on the road, 6-2 against the A.L. East and 4-0 on the road against left-handed starters, but the “over” is 8-3 in Verlander’s 11 road starts. For the Yankees, with Sabathia on the hill, the “over” is on runs of 5-0 overall, 6-2 at home and 4-0 against teams with winning records. As a team, the Yankees have topped the total in four of five overall, four of six at home and five of seven against right-handers. Finally, in this series, the over is 5-3 in the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Marc Lawrence
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Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
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When the Royals send Zach Greinke to the mound against Scott Kazmir and the Rays in Game Two of their three game series they will do so knowing they have come up winners in 7 of Greinke's 11 home starts this season. Our history book reminds us that the home team in Greinke's team starts agasint Tampa Bay is 4-0 in his career. Meanwhile, Kazmir is 1-2 with a 7.07 ERA in his career team starts at Royals Stadium. Interestingly, Kazmir has not lasted more than 6 innings in any of his last 16 road starts. With Greinke in commanding KW form at home this season (13 walks-to-82 strikeouts), look for Kansas City to have its way here tonight.
Vernon Croy
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Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Minnesota Twins
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting great value again with the better overall team Saturday night. The Texas Rangers have now dropped 4 of their last 5 games and they were hitting just .229 as a team over their last 7 games before last night's loss against the Twins. The Twins are now 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog and they are 5-1 in Scott Baker's (7-7, 5.42 ERA) last 6 games against a team with a winning record. The Rangers are just 1-5 in Scott Feldman's (8-2, 3.83 ERA) last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and they are now just 1-5 in their last 6 games against an AL Central division opponent. Take the Minnesota Twins Saturday night.
Cajun Sports
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Colorado Rockies
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Game Three of the four-game series between the host San Diego Padres and the visiting Colorado Rockies is set for Saturday night at Petco Park with the first pitch scheduled for 10:05PM EST. Colorado is 25-22 W/L (+9.2) on the road this season and 107-78 W/L (+24.1) on the road during the second half of the season the last three years. The Rockies are 35-27 W/L (+9.0) when facing right-handed starters this season averaging 5.0 runs per game against them. They are also 12-4 W/L (+9.7) on the road versus NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game during the second half of the season and 11-3 W/L (+9.2) after having won at least six of their last eight games overall. Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the bump with his 5-4 W/L record and ERA of 4.43 on the season and the Rockies are 10-5 W/L this season when he starts the game. Hammel has been solid on the highway posting a record of 4-2 W/L with an ERA of 2.14. San Diego is 23-21 W/L (+1.2) at home this season scoring 3.7 runs per game against right-handed starters. They are 18-34 (-15.0) when facing a righty and 21-42 W/L (-19.5) versus a starter who gives up less than 1.75 walks per start the last two seasons. The Padres will hand the ball to Kevin Correia with his 6-7 W/L record and ERA of 4.59 this year. When he takes the bump at home he is only 3-3 W/L with an ERA of 4.68. We note that San Diego is ranked 30th in hitting with a batting average of .234. San Diego only averages 3.8 runs per game overall while the Rockies come in ranked 19th in hitting with a batting average of .259 scoring 5.1 runs per game. The overall pitching numbers favor the Rockies as well with the Padres ranked 27th in pitching with an ERA of 4.74 opponents have a batting average of .262 and OBP of .334 against them. Colorado is ranked 16th in pitching with an ERA of 4.32 opponents have a batting average of .268 and an OBP of .331 when facing them. We expect the better team to get the win here as the Rockies grab game three on Saturday night at Petco Park over the host Padres.
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Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies 2 San Diego Padres 0
Craig Trapp
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Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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The Dodgers have had a rough start to the second half of the season as HOU has beat them 2 games in a row. Don't fear Dodger backers as they have there hottest pitcher going today, Clayton Kershaw. He has been super hot, in fact the LAD have not lost when he has been on the mound in his last 6 starts. In that span Kershaw is 4-0 with only 3 earned runs in 35 innings. WOW!!! On the other side HOU will turn to Mike Hampton who has been up and down all year. Bad news for Astro backers Hampton has been not good in his last 4 going 1-2 with a 5 plus ERA! Can't imagine that LAD won't break out the big bats and score 5 plus runs on a pitcher that can give up some huge innings! Not a close one here, LAD in a romp! SCORE: LAD 7 - HOU 1
Nelly
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Philadelphia at Florida
Play Under
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The 'under' has cashed in each of the last four meetings in this series and in eight of the last eleven Phillies games. Florida has made it a race in the NL East with solid play of late and the Marlins bullpen has been excellent in recent weeks with a 1.53 ERA. Philadelphia has had relief pitching problems this season but also owns great recent numbers with a 1.80 bullpen ERA in the last ten games. In seven games against the Phillies the Marlins have averaged less than four runs per game and Florida has very average recent offensive numbers with a .249 team average in the last ten games. Joe Blanton has marginal overall numbers this season built on a rocky April but he has pitched well in recent weeks with seven quality starts in his last nine starts. Blanton allowed just eight hits and one run in his previous two starts, going nearly 15 innings. Josh Johnson is one of the truly elite pitchers in the NL with 109 strikeouts and a 2.74 ERA. At home that ERA drops to 1.98 with a 1.01 WHIP. Both offenses get a lot of respect but pitching has carried these teams to strong first half records and this should be an intense low-scoring division game between the top two contenders in the NL East.
Red Dog Sports
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Detroit at Phoenix 10pm
Play Over
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Diana Taurasi is out for the Mercury but Phoenix likes to run and gun and Detroit will be happy to get out and run with them. Look for an game in the upper 170's and a winner with the over.
Matt Fargo
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: New York Mets
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The Mets have to break this streak and what better way to do so than with their ace. The Mets are a good candidate to break out in the second half and it will all start with pitching as the offense has been held in check. Johan Santana gets the ball today as he looks to snap the current two-game losing streak in this set. He closed the first half with two straight quality outings and he faces a team he has had great success against despite not getting the wins. Since coming over to the Mets, he has faced Atlanta four times and all four games have been quality starts, posting a 1.98 ERA. He goes up against Kenshin Kawakami who has been solid but inconsistent at times this season. Only seven of his 16 starts this season have been quality outings and pitching in the daylight has not been kind to him. In four early starts, he has a 5.96 ERA and 1.41 WHIP and that ERA is close to two and a half runs more than it is in his 12 nighttime starts. The Mets are 21-6 in Santanas last 27 starts following a quality outing in his last start while the Braves are 1-5 in Kawakamis last six starts following a quality outing in his last start. The Mets need a boost and this is the game that is happens.
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3* New York Mets
Bob Harvey
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Chi Cubs vs. Was Nationals
Play: Under 8
The Cubs needed a two-run double from pitcher Carlos Zambrano to beat the Nationals on Friday. That gives you an idea how they’re struggling at the plate. The Nationals despite a decent team batting average of .262 have struggled lately to get runners across the dish. Put that combination together and you’ve got the makings of a nice UNDER play in the nation’s capital.
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The Cubs are banged up. Alfonso Soriano who was showing signs of breaking out a season long slump will miss today’s game with a swollen finger. Chicago is already without Geovany Soto who was also starting to heat up before he went on the DL.
Even the healthy Cubbies are struggling at the plate. Leadoff hitter Kos Fukodome is hitting just .255. Free agent bust Milton Bradley has a .239 BA. Backup catcher Koy Hill is batting just .208. Outside of Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs don’t have much else to offer offensively. As a team the Cubs are hitting .247 the second lowest average in the NL. The Cubs average just 4.14 runs per game, 26th in MLB.
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Washington is in a 1 for 23 rut with runners in scoring position in the last three games, including an 0-for-8 performance Friday. The Nats rank 20th in baseball in runs scored with 4.31 per game.
The starting pitchers for tonight’s tilt are solid if not spectacular. Rookie Jordan Zimmerman will look for his fourth win of the year and at the same time given interim manager Jim Riggleman his first victory. Zimmermann,has a 2.70 ERA in his last seven games and three quality starts in his last four outings.
Fellow rookie Randy Wells goes for the Cubs. He’s 4-4 with a 2.72 ERA and was moved up one day to start in place of Ted Lilly. Wells will be after his fifth win in six outings.
If I didn’t make a compelling enough case to go low tonight consider these trends:
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The UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight series meetngs in Washington and nine of the last 11 meetings have played to the low side. In addition the Cubs are 21-6 to the UNDER in their last 27 road games. Chicago is 49-36 to the UNDER this season while Washington is 47-39.
Playing total’s have been a risky proposistion for yours truly this season but given the way these two teams are struggling at the plate right now, a slugfest is definitely out of the question.
Rob Vinciletti
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1½
Not to worry.Giving a free play at -180 is like giving snow in the winter.However on the run line there's excellent value here.The Dodgers are now off 2 straight home losses to the Astros.Tonight they qualify in a solid system that has cashed 12 straight times.We play on home favorites of -140 or higher with a total of 8 or less if they come in off a home favored loss of 5 or more runs,scored 4 or less runs,had 4 or more hits and tonight's opponent is off a road dog win having scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits.This system wins by an average 7-3 score.As a side bar the Dodgers are 9-0 off back to back losses.They have won every game by 2 or more runs.Hence the run line play.Houston is 1-4 this year off 3 straight wins.The Dodgers have a red hot C.Kershaw pitching and he has been awesome over his last 3 starts with a 0.53 era.At home this year LA has cashed 6 of his 9 starts and he has a solid 1.85 era.Houston counters with M.Hampton and they are just 5-10 in his starts this year.Hampton catched the Dodgers at the wrong time here tonight.
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at CINCINNATI
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G-Man now 12-4 the last 16 days with my comp plays.
Last night a winner on Tampa Bay to make it 5 straight free play winners!
Tonight look for the hitters to be spraying balls all over the field in Cincinnati, as the Brewers and Reds gear up for an easy OVER.
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True, last night Bronson Arroyo had Milwaukee's number, but that won't happen tonight with Aaron Harang on the mound. Harang's ERA has taken a hit his last 3 trips to the mound, as it is at 5.62 for his last 16 innings of work.
His counterpart Manny Parra has been lost all season long on the bump, as the southpaw's season ERA stands at 6.78, and it is at 6.91 for hhis last 14-plus innings of work.
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10 of Milwaukee's last 13 road games have played OVER the posted price, and I don't think there is any question that this one will as well with these 2 hurlers on the mound.
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G-Man going OVER in the Queen City on Saturday night.
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4♦ OVER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia +120 at FLORIDA
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Friday night comp play winner on Philadelphia to make it 4 straight comp play winners!
Going right back to the well on Saturday with the Phils once again.
Philly has now won their last 7, and 11 of their last 12. They have been getting solid pitching, and timely hitting, and that is a winning formula, as the Phillies are seriously threatening to put the NL East on-ice in the early goings of the second half of the season.
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The Phillies are now 6-2 in the season series against their division rival, and 8-2 overall their last 10 versus the Marlins.
Josh Johnson has become the Florida "ace", but the Marlins have now lost 6 of their last 9, and they are facing the resurgent Joe Blanton who is a solid 2-1 his last 3 starts, with an ERA in that span of just 1.83.
All the value tonight rests with the red-hot visitor.
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Play on Philly.
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5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
Colorado -105 at SAN DIEGO
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Doesn’t seem too long ago the Rockies were doormats in the National League. Ten games below .500 and bye-bye Clint Hurdle. Less than two months later – 50 days to be exact – the Rockies are eight games above .500 and are looking like a serious threat as a postseason contender, just two years after appearing in the World Series.
Let’s forget about the NL West race for a moment, and just talk Wild Card, because the Rockies trail the Dodgers by seven games in the division. However, if San Francisco loses to Pittsburgh tonight, and Colorado beats San Diego for the eighth time this season, the Rockies take a one-half game lead over the Giants in the Wild-Card race.
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No problem, as I’ll bank on Jason Hammel to do his job once again. Over his last 10 starts, Colorado has won nine of these games. I know he closed the first half of the season with a pair of rough outings, but let me alert you to the fact in eight starts from May 24 - July 1 Hammel went 5-1 with a 3.47 ERA.
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He should have his way against a lineup that is batting a major league-worst .232. San Diego had three hits in last night’s 5-3 loss and dropped to a major league-worst 11-29 since the beginning of June.
All Rockies tonight.
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1♦ ROCKIES
Jeff Benton
Detroit +125 at N.Y. YANKEES
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For Saturday, we’ll take a shot with the Tigers and All-Star right-hander Justin Verlander in an afternoon affair in the Bronx against the Yankees and CC Sabathia.
Verlander ended a sensational first half of the season with an impressive 10-1 win over the Indians on Sunday, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing just five hits and striking out eight. The veteran right-hander has won consecutive starts, punching out 19 in 13 innings, and he’s now 10-4 with a 3.38 ERA overall. One of those 10 wins came against Sabathia and the Yankees back on April 27 in Motown, with Verlander handcuffing the Bronx Bombers as he pitched seven scoreless frames and notched nine Ks while giving up seven hits and no walks.
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Verlander is now 3-1 in five career regular-season starts against the Yankees, plus he guided Detroit to a playoff victory over New York back in 2006. Even more impressive, he’s faced Sabathia five times in his career (including CC’s days with Cleveland), and he’s 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA. On the other hand, Sabathia is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in those five head-to-head matchups with Verlander, and he’s 3-6 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 10 starts against the Tigers since 2006!
Sabathia is coming off that 5-4 loss at the Angels six days ago (costing me my biggest play of the MLB season), and he gave up all five runs on nine hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings, dropping to 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA in his last three trips to the hill. He’s also struggled in new Yankee Stadium this year, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in eight starts, five of which New York has lost.
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Another point about Sabathia that must be made: At 300 pounds, he’s not exactly svelte, and judging by his stats in day games this year (0-3, 5.70 ERA in eight starts, with the Yanks going 1-7), the lefty clearly struggles with stamina when pitching under the hot sun. In fact, Sabathia averages less than six innings in day games while averaging more than 7 1/3 innings in night games. That’s telling!
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So to get a pitcher as good as Verlander at this kind of a plus price against a portly pitcher like Sabathia who obviously can’t stand the heat and humidity of day games (and obviously doesn’t like facing Detroit) is good enough value for me. Ride the road pup here.
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4♦ DETROIT
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Angels -130 at OAKLAND
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Jered Weaver (10-3, 3.22 ERA) was probably one of the biggest All-Star Game snubs this year.
The lanky right-hander posted a 2.08 ERA over his first 13 starts of the season for the Angels, but he has struggled a little over his last five outings, which probably cost him an American League All-Star roster spot. Weaver, who allowed three runs on four hits over six innings last Saturday against the Yankees, has a 6.38 ERA over his last three outings.
Weaver faces the Athletics today, and is 2-2 with a 2.56 ERA in seven career starts vs. the AL West rivals, including 1-1 with a 2.48 ERA in five starts at Oakland-Alameda County Stadium.
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The A’s counter with rookie right-hander Vin Mazzaro (2-5, 3.59), who is 0-5 with a 5.03 ERA in his last six games after winning his first two career outings. He allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits in five innings on July 10 at Tampa Bay in his last start.
Los Angeles has played well without injured stars Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero, with first baseman Kendry Morales leading the charge. Morales has a 17-game hitting streak, and is 23-for-64 (.359) with five home runs and 16 RBIs during that span.
The A’s, meanwhile, remain at or near the bottom of every offensive statistical category in the AL.
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I think Weaver, who is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA in four day starts this year, is determined to make the rest of the league pay for leaving him off the All-Star Game roster, and Oakland is going to be the first victim. Go with the Angels.
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3♦ L.A. ANGELS