Drew Gordon
Minnesota at TEXAS -125
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Now on a 26-16 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Phillies over the Marlins 6-5 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/Texas match up...
Good spot for the Rangers to get back on track, as they've lost 4 of their last 5 games, including yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Twins. Why is this a good spot? Well, it starts with the pitching match up, which clearly favors the Rangers...
Scott Feldman gets the nod for Texas, and there's a couple things I like about the Rangers righty: A. He's 3-0 with a strong 2.89 ERA over his last 3 starts, including back-to-back home wins against two top-tier offenses in the Rays and Angels. And B. His 3-1 record and 3.63 ERA in Arlington are no accident, as he's been at his best in front of the home fans. True, he's got poor career numbers against the Twins, but you can say the same about Minny's starter.
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Speaking of the Twins starter, Scott Baker will be opposing Feldman in this one, and that's good news as far as I'm concerned. Yes, Baker has pitched well on the road of late, but overall he's looked anything but good, posting a disgusting 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts. What's worse is his numbers vs the Rangers are pathetic, going 0-2 with a 7.47 ERA in 3 career starts!
Finally, I told you with my paid play winner on the Twins last night, that the Rangers would have trouble with the lefty Perkins, and I was dead-on. Fast forward to tonight's match up, and no such issue arises... Not only have the Rangers crushed Baker in the past, but they're also hitting righties much better of late, batting .258 against them over their last 10 (compared to just .233 vs lefties). In the end, look for the Rangers to snap their slide behind Feldman Saturday night at home!
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Take Texas behind Feldman over Minnesota and Baker in this MLB match up.
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2♦ TEXAS
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota at TEXAS -120
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Tonight's FREE winner comes from Arlington as we go with the Rangers at home against the Twins.
The Rangers are in need of a big pitching performance from righty Scott Feldman (8-2, 3.83 ERA) today as they've dropped three in a row and find themselves 2 1/2 behind the Angels in the A.L. West standings. I expect Feldman to step up and deliver like the ace he's becoming right before our eyes.
Feldman is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three outings and 3-1 in front of the home fans this season. The Rangers have won his last four starts and last time out he held the Mariners to two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings of a 6-4 Texas victory. He's gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts, giving the Rangers just what they need tonight.
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On the mound for the Twins is Scott Baker (7-7, 5.42) who has a 6.91 ERA in his last three outings and a 5.01 ERA on the road. On Sunday, the White Sox got him for five runs in 6.1 innings but the offense bailed him out with a 13-7 victory. He's allowed 10 runs in his last 9.1 innings and just hasn't looked good lately.
Minnesota is 0-6 when Baker starts as an underdog while the Rangers are 5-2 in Feldman's last seven at home. Texas is also on runs of 5-1 at home, 4-0 in the second game of a series and 20-8 at home against teams with losing road records.
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I love Feldman and his tenacity. Play the Rangers in this one.
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2♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Brewers.
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Manny Parra certainly has not been good this season and it led to the demotion but his first start back up was great last week and when push comes to shove the Brewers are far superior to the Reds.
Aaron Harang is a professional hurler who at anytime can look very good. The guy has had his issues at times though this season including that last outing at CitiField against the Mets where he lasted a whole three innings. I like the tall junkballer, I really do, but he has not won a game since May 25th and in this spot against bashers in Braun and Fielder along with other solid players like Cameron, Hardy and Hart I can't help but go against Harang and back the visiting Brew Crew.
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Parra is a talented lefty who has been disappointing for sure but the upside is there and against a fairly weak weak Cincinnati lineup I expect Parra to once again look pretty good. With Jay Bruce out there really is not much more on the Reds besides Joey Votto. Brandon Phillips can be good but all in all we are looking at Votto and not much else at all.
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If the bad and non confident Parra shows up then we certainly could be in some trouble here. But Milwaukee is clearly the superior club of these two and with te Reds reeling offense I think we'll see the quality Parra start and pick up the win!
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2♦ Brewers
Jake Timlin
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Battle of a pair of aces in St. Louis today so look low as runs will be at a premium when the D'Backs and Cardinals meet at Busch Stadium.
Helping to keep the Diamondbacks off the scoreboard will be Adam Wainwright and his 1.39 ERA over his last four starts that has led to four straight games staying under the posted price.
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Countering for Arizona is All Star Dan Haren, who has been one of the toughest pitchers to score on this season given his 2.01 season ERA and even lower earned run average of 0.77 over his last three outings.
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With both pitchers fully rested thanks to the All Star break, I expect for pitching to lead the way for a low-scoring game today in St. Louis so play this one Under the posted price.
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2♦ St. Louis & Arizona UNDER
JIM FEIST
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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES / FLORIDA MARLINS
Take PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
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The Phillies look like the defending champs now, pulling away in the NL East. One factor has been the return of All-Star Raul Ibanez, who hit two home runs in the first game after the break, giving him 24 this season. Starter Joe Blanton has been red-hot, at 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA his last three starts and this is a great pitcher's park. He is 3-0 lifetime against Florida. Play the Phillies.
The Sports Investing Professional
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I'm pretty sure everyone and their mother is going to have the Dodgers tonight but with good reason.Kershaw has been real good as of late and LA is one of the top home teams in MLB.
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Our second play is down in Texas. The Rangers are one of the best home teams and Minnesota is one of the bottom on the road.A good pitching matchup and a nice price certainly makes the Rangers worth an investment.
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LA Dodgers -180
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Texas Rangers -125
DUNKEL INDEX
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Tampa Bay at Kansas City
The Rays look to build on their 5-1 record in Scott Kazmir's last 6 starts as a road underdog between +110 and +150. Tampa Bay is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130).
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Game 901-902: NY Mets at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.504; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.192
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Over
Game 903-904: San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.597; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.510
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under
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Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.597; Washington (Zimmermann) 15.106
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Over
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.886; Cincinnati (Harang) 13.787
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+120); Under
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Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.370; Florida (Johnson) 16.629
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-130); Under
Game 911-912: Arizona at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 14.986; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.113
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.521; San Diego (Correia) 14.955
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over
Game 915-916: Houston at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Hampton) 15.442; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.143
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+160); Under
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Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Penny) 15.348; Toronto (Rzepczynski) 15.851
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+105); Under
Game 919-920: Detroit at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.067; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.634
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
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Game 921-922: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Bergesen) 14.860; White Sox (Buehrle) 16.099
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.313; Oakland (Mazzaro) 16.288
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over
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Game 925-926: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Washburn) 15.873; Cleveland (Ohka) 14.144
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.750; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.012
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Over
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Game 929-930: Minnesota at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.071; Texas (Feldman) 14.441
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under
WNBA
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Detroit at Phoenix
The Mercury look to build on their 14-3 ATS record in their last 17 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2).
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Game 601-602: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.768; Washington 108.847
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 151
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over
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Game 603-604: Detroit at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.201; Phoenix 116.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 173 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under
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CFL
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Winnipeg at Hamilton
The Bluebombers look to build on their 5-2-1 ATS record in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. Winnipeg is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bluebombers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-1).
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Game 405-406: Montreal at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 121.326; Saskatchewan 112.910
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 8 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Over
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Game 407-408: Winnipeg at Hamilton
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 110.398; Hamilton 103.238
Dunkel Line: Winnipeg by 7; 56 1/2
Vegas Line: Winnipeg by 1; 54
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-1); Over
Spartan
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For today free I'm heading west to the Angels as they turn to Jered Weaver to rebound against Oakland. Weaver, 10-3, 3.22 could have easily been tabbed an All Star with the year he has produced. I feel he is the right guy at the right time to get it done for Mike Scioscia and the Angels. He gets a good draw here against the A's Vin Mazzaro 2-5, 3.59. Mazzaro has better stuff than his record indicates but he has lost his last 5 decisions and his bad luck held out here in my opinion with this matchup against Jered. I feel the price is reasonable at -125 and am taking the Angels to strike back tonight.
LEE KOSTROSKI
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Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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Scott Feldman owns a gaudy 8-2 record but the Twins are a team that could give him problems. Feldman is not a strikeout pitcher as he has just 46 in over 96 innings of work, featuring a very marginal 1.48 strikeout to walk ratio. Feldman has not allowed a lot of hits but left-handers have had some success against him and the Minnesota lineup is loaded with quality left-handed batters. Minnesota enters this game batting .269 in the last ten games, having scored 59 runs in that span.
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The Twins have struggled on the road this season but recent weeks have been encouraging, winning 10 of the last 15 road games including four consecutive road series wins. The Twins are just above .500 but Minnesota has scored more runs than Texas this season, something that is hard to believe considering that the Ballpark in Arlington has the second highest ballpark OPS in the AL. The Twins are also 12-6 in the last 18 meetings in this series.
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Minnesota starter Scott Baker has pitched better than his statistics indicate. He had a slow start to the season and he has had a few shaky outings but he also has seven quality starts on the year. Baker owns a 3.90 strikeout to walk ratio and he actually has pitched significantly better on the road versus at the Metrodome. The Minnesota bullpen should also hold a significant edge in this match-up, featuring a considerably better season ERA although both Texas and Minnesota have received quality relief pitching in recent weeks. The Rangers offense has been the cause for the slide in the standings as Texas is batting just .243 in the last ten games.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
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There is certainly something about the National League Central that affects Giants southpaw Barry Zito the wrong way as the lefthander has seen San Francisco lose his last 11 of his starts vs. this division. As hot as the G-Men have been recently, they are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on the road this season. While they are own the best home record in the National League, San Fran is seven games under .500 on the road and the Bucs are surprisingly six games over here at PNC Park. Take the favorite.
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Play on: Pittsburgh
LT Profits
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers has been almost unhittable over his last six starts, and while Mike Hampton is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate for the Houston Astros, he showed in his last start that he is capable of imploding at any time.
Kershaw has allowed a grand total of three runs on only 19 hits in 35.2 innings in those six starts, including four scoreless outings! Believe it or not, he has actually been better over his last three outings, where he allowed one run and six hits in 17 innings with 16 strikeouts. Kershaw has been excellent at home all year, where he has a deceptive 2-2 record with a sparkling 1.85 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in nine starts.
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Now Hampton was on a nice roll entering his last start, but he was then promptly roughed up for five runs and nine hits in just 3.2 innings by the lowly Washington Nationals of all clubs. Yes, he had allowed three runs or less in five straight starts prior to that outings, but that last start has us a bit concerned, and he will need to be on top of his game to match Kershaw in his raging current form.
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While Hampton is better than his last start, we still expect the Dodgers to scratch out enough runs off of him here for a Run Line victory.
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Pick: Dodgers -1.5
Jimmy The Moose
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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
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Two teams headed in the opposite direction meet-up in this one. The Cubs are playing better winning 4 of their last 5 while the Nationals, well they keep losing. Chicago is 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite. They are 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Cubs have won 4 of Wells last 5 starts. The Nationals are 15-45 in their last 60 games. IN their last 31 home games they are 10-21. They are 13-38 in their last 51 games as a dog. The Nationals have lost 9 of Zimmerman's last 11 starts. The Cubs are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings. Play on the Cubs -.
Jordan Haimowitz
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Under 8½
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Today's starters are Jered Weaver and Vin Mazzaro. Weaver has an ERA of 3.14 while Mazzaro's ERA is 3.59. With Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero injured, expect the Angels to be offensivley challenged. It will be especially tough for them today in a pitchers ballpark. Weaver has a 1.80 ERA during day starts as opposed to his 3.69 ERA at night. Mazzaro is a young rookie who has showed signs of dominance. He has struggled at times but that is expected as a rookie. Mazzaro is much more effective during day games where his ERA is 2.19 while at night it's 4.08. Expect Vin to pitch well today. Take the UNDER 8.5 runs.
Jr Tips
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BALTIMORE vs. CHICAGO
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Chicago (46-4) is 11-3 on Saturday this year, including 6-0 at home and will start ace Mark Buehrle (9-3, 3.66 ERA) who"s looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season when the All-Star gave up eight runs over 3 1/3 innings Sunday in a 13-7 loss at Minnesota.Buehrle is 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles and he has been outstanding at home going 5-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 10 starts.Rookie Brad Bergesen (6-3, 3.54) will start for Baltimore with Jeremy Guthrie being pushed back one day while recovering from an illness.Bergesen won his major league debut against the White Sox on April 21 by allowing three runs over 5 2/3 innings in a 10-3 victory and also won his last outing Sunday against Toronto by yielding two runs over 6 2/3 innings although on the road, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in six outings. The White Sox have been unbeatable at home with their ace on the mouund and that will continue today.
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TAKE CHI-SOX-150
Mikey Sports
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NY Mets @ Atlanta
Play: Atlanta
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R&R Totals
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San Francisco @ Pittsburgh
Play: Over
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Pure Lock
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HOUSTON @ LA DODGERS
PLAY: HOUSTON