Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday July, 21

Hollywood Sports

Montreal Alouettes at Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Prediction: Hamilton Tiger-Cats

Montreal (2-1) rallied to defeat Calgary last week by a 33-32 score as a 7-point favorite -- but the fact that lost the first down battle by a 24-15 margin is an ominous sign for this club moving forward. After their two straight seasons where they won the Grey Cup, the Alouettes may still be a bit overrated despite their first round exit in the playoffs last season. Montreal has now failed to meet point spread expectations in 9 of their last 10 games. Now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games. Additionally, the Alouettes have failed to cover the spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Tiger-Cats. Hamilton (1-2) comes off a 36-27 win versus Toronto last week -- and they have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Tiger-Cats have also covered the spread in 5 straight games played in the month of July. With the benefit of home field advantage, look for Hamilton to cover the point spread here like they did in the East Division Semifinals versus the Alouettes last year. Lay the points with Hamilton.

Jesse Schule

Montreal vs. Hamilton
Pick: Montreal

The Als got their season started on the wrong foot, by losing in Calgary in Week 1, but they have two straight victories since then, including executing their revenge on the Stampeders at home in Montreal. They will head out on the road again this week, taking on the Tiger-Cats in Hamilton.

Hamilton got their first win of the season at home last week over the Toronto Argonauts, winning by a score of 36-27. The Tiger-Cats offense looked good in the victory, however their defense has still allowed a total of 70 points in their two home games this season. The Hamilton defense will be challenged again today, as The Montreal offense led by Anthony Calvillo is one of the most potent attacks in the league.

After Week 3, Calvillo is second in the league in yards, only to Ricky Ray of the Argos who has played one more game. He also has the highest quarterback rating of all active starters with a rating of 106.3. There is no question that Montreal's offense can get the job done, the main concern is can their defense keep them in the game?

While the Als defense is a huge concern, having allowed a minimum of 30 points in each of their first three games, the Tiger-Cats defense is an even greater concern, allowing a league high 440 yards per game so far.

I am expecting the Als to come out on top here, in a shootout in Hamilton.

Alf Musketa

Ryan Jimmo vs. Anthony Perosh
Play: Ryan Jimmo -165

Jimmo has many distinct advantages in this matchup. His stand up game is far superior to that of Perosh. He has KO power in both hands. After both fighters weigh in at the light heavyweight scale of 205 lbs, by fight time and the following day, Jimmo will have put on an additional 20-25 lbs. He has the monster body frame to pack on this type of weight. Perosh is taller and lanky, better suited for the Ju-Jitsu game and will pack on maybe 10 lbs.

Perosh is one of the oldest fighters in the UFC at 39 years of age. While I don't think the UFC is throwing Jimmo a bone here to promote him, the matchmakers could easily have given Jimmo a tougher fight. Jimmo's MMA record is 16-1, Perosh 13-6. In Perosh's six loses, four were by KO and that's exactly what we expect here from Jimmo who is from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, with a 16 fight win streak making his UFC debut.

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Yankees and A's meet in Game Two of this bi-coastal series Saturday night in Oakland where New York send Philip Hughes to the mound. Hughes enters the contest in solid KW form owning 24 strikeouts and 6 walks in his last five starts. He also sports a 4-0 career team start mark against the Athletics. With the Pinstripes having dominated the A's of late, winning 16 of the last 20 games - including 13 of the last 15 in this park - look for the Bronx Bombers to continue their winning ways here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Yankees.

MTi Sports

Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston was beat 14-8 yesterday in the series opener and they have shown all the backbone of a banana slug in this spot. The Astros are 0-20 at night when seeking immediate revenge for a night loss in which they allowed at least six runs and more than two walks, losing by an average of 4.6 runs per game. Note that the Astros are 1-19 on the RUN-LINE in this spot, with their ONLY run-line cover a 1-0 shutout loss. Houston was an average of MINUS-134 on the run-line in this spot!

Matt Fargo

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Toronto took the opening game of this series last night, snapping a three-game losing streak and making it just two victories over its last nine games. The Blue Jays are now a game under .500 and sits 11 games out of first place in the American League East. They are still in the Wild Card hunt but the chances are slim with seven teams in front of them. Carlos Villanueva has been very solid since entering the rotation as he is 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three starts with the last two being quality outings. The problem is that all of those came at home and his last road start was last August which resulted in allowing eight runs in just 2.2 innings against the Rays. Boston had won three of four entering last night and while it is also well out of the American League East race, the Wild Card is still in play as it is two games out. The play at home has been inconsistent after possessing a huge home field advantage over the last few years so we are actually getting a good number to work with here. Aaron Cook has made a bit of a resurgence as he has a 3.34 ERA through five starts and that is after a disastrous debut with the Red Sox. He has tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 1.23 ERA over that stretch and he has not allowed a run in two nighttime starts, covering 16 innings.

Ray Monohan

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10

Over is 13-6-1 in TOR last 20 Sat. games. Over is 6-2 in Villanuevas last 8 road starts. Over is 5-1-1 in Red Sox last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 6-1-1 in Blue Jays last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 5-1-1 in Blue Jays last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. (Ump Trends) Over is 4-1 in Fletchers last 5 games behind home plate vs. Toronto. Over is 6-1 in Fletchers last 7 Saturday games behind home plate.

Rob Vinciletti

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Indians fit a nice system here that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs, while scoring 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs, if they scored 10 or more runs and left 10+ men on base. This system has won 11 of 13 times. The Indians will look to rebound from last nights 10-2 pasting knowing they are 9-1 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5. Tonight they have Z. McAllister on the mound. He has a nice win over the Orioles in Baltimore back on June 28th going nearly 6 innings allowing a pair of runs. The Orioles counter with C.Tillman who is making his 2nd start. His first one was a nightmare as he was pulled early in the first inning. He has allowed 6 runs in 2 innings in his only start here. Look for Cleveland to even the series tonight.

Chris Elliott

Montreal vs. Hamilton
Pick: Over

Week 4 of the CFL season concludes Saturday with the Montreal Alouette’s (2-1) travelling to the province of Ontario to take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-2) at Ivor Wynne Stadium.

Montreal heads out on the road after squeeking out a 33-32 victory last weekend against the Calgary Stampeders at Olympic Stadium. Veteran QB Anthony Calvillo was great again for the Allouettes completing 23 of 38 passes for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. Montreal’s ground game was basically non existent on the day with Calvillo the leading rusher with just 9 yards on 1 carry. Wide receiver Brandon London caught 5 passes for 106 yards while wide receiver Brian Bratton hauled in four balls for 94 yards and a touchdown. 7 of Montreal’s last 10 games on the road have ended up going “Over” the total including their last 2 trips to Hamilton.

Hamilton comes into this game looking to get back to the .500 mark after picking up their first victory of the year last week when they beat provincial rival Toronto by a score of 36-27. Quarterback Henry Burris completed 12 of 27 passes for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Tiger-Cats rushed for a total of 112 yards on the day with running back Chevon Walker leading the way with 17 carries for 66 yards. Wideout Andy Fantuz reeled in 3 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown while wide receiver Chris Williams caught 1 pass for 34 yards and a touchdown. Williams had another good day on special teams as well, returning 4 punts for a total of 113 yards and 1 touchdown. 4 of Hamilton’s last 5 games overall have gone “Over” the total and 7 of their last 10 games at Ivor Wynne Stadium have also ended up going “Over”.

Montreal is averaging 61 total points per game on both sides of the ball. Hamilton is averaging 66 total points per game. At a current projected total of 59.5 I would give a serious look at the "Over" in this game.

Jack Jones

Rangers/Angels OVER 8 (-119)

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight in this game between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the best line-ups in all of baseball, and they should not have a problem combining to score nine or more runs in this one.

Yu Darvish and Ervin Santana are getting too much respect here. Santana is 4-9 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.390 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 10.95 ERA and 2.352 WHIP in his last three.

Darvish is 10-6 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 17 starts, 3-5 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in nine road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.20 ERA in his last three. Santana is 12-9 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.405 WHIP in 14 career starts against Texas.

The OVER is 4-0 in Darvish's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 10-2-1 in Angels last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The OVER is 5-1-1 in Angels last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The OVER is 7-2 in Santana's last 9 starts overall. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Freddy Wills

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chris Sale has been nothing but spectacular on the road this year posting a 2.60 ERA on the season. However, he's been even better during his day starts posting a 1.87 ERA and over his last three starts he's 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He'll face the division rival Detroit Tigers who they are looking to compete with until the end for the AL West. These two teams have been identical in a lot of ways of late as both are in the top 10 in ops in the month of July. While both teams have been dominant during the day games as the White Sox are 21-14 and the Tigers are 26-16 both in the top 5 in OPS during day games.

Chris Sale however has the advantage and it's not just because of his performance away from home, but he's held the Tigers to a .173 average and .630 OPS in 52 AB during his career. While Porcello has struggled at times vs. the White Sox allowing a .797 OPS in 139 AB. He also is posting a meager 5.20 ERA at home and 5.40 ERA durin the day games. The White Sox are now 21-8 in their last 29 games as a road favorite and this is the game they must have after losing Friday night.

Notable Hot Starters:
Miguel Batista (2-1, 1.19 WHIP, 1.26 ERA)
Zach McCallister (2-1, 1.25 WHIP, 2.04 ERA)
Carlos Villanueva (3-0, 1.18 WHIP, 1.59 ERA)
Aaron Cook (2-1, 0.77 WHIP, 1.23 ERA)
Luis Mendoza (1-2, 1.08 WHIP, 2.53 ERA)
Jason Vargas (2-1, 1.09 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Yovani Gallardo (3-0, 0.97 WHIP, 0.92 ERA)
Kip Wells (1-2, 1.50 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Dallas Keuchel (1-2, 1.26 WHIP, 2.61 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Though this is not going to be any sort of a sports pick that is backed by our sports monitor we still like to give out the cold pitcher with the best shot at winning because often times there is a lot of value. Today's pitcher is Edwin Jackson really by default because the Nationals have been red hot and he goes up against Ben Sheets only making his second start. Jackson has also pitched well against the Braves holding them to a .206 average and .559 OPS in 68 AB.

Notable Cold Starters:
Yu Darvish (1-2, 1.23 WHIP, 6.20 ERA)
Ervin Santana (0-3, 2.35 WHIP, 10.95 ERA)
Randall Delgado (0-3, 2.21 WHIP, 7.15 ERA)

Jim Feist

New York Yankees vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: New York Yankees

The Yankees have been a great road team all season, though they did have a rare road loss at Oakland on Thursday and are losing at Oakland as of this writing. Still, the Yankees are 27-18 on the road and score slightly higher away than at home. The bullpen is even better on the road with a 2.69 ERA vs a home ERA of 3.21. Oakland has a winning record at home, but just by five games heading into Friday night. This club doesn't score much either at home or on the road. They have a good pen with a 2.60 home ERA. Heading into Friday night, the Yankees were 3-1 against the A's this season, 13-2 their last 15 trips to the Bay Area and 18-5 overall the last three years. So the Yankees have feasted on the A's and two possible losses the last two nights is a rarity. I like the Yankees on Saturday.

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Aaron Cook is getting it done with mirrors for Boston. That has to end soon, and Toronto has the bats to get it done here. With red hot Carlos Villanueva throwing, I'll cast my lot with the Blue Jays tonight.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

NY Mets/ Dodgers Over 8.5: Google News Play A few days ago I had a thread on some OVER stats that the Mets have when they take on a left handed pitcher so it's only logical I go with the OVER in this one. When the Mets have faced a lefty this year there has been an average of 11 rpg being scored and the Over has gone 27-5-3 in those games. At home the Over is 10-1-1 in their last 11 games when they have faced a lefty with an average of 11.2 rpg being scored. The last 5 home games this situation has come up there have been at least 10 runs scored in each game. Aside from those stats we do have pitchers on the mound that should give up some runs. Chris Capuano has been awesome at home this year, but on the road he has been hit some with a 4.13 ERA. In his last 4 road starts he has allowed 4 ER's or more in three of those games. He also has a 5.90 ERA in 6 starts vs the Mets. Miguel Batista has a good home start and a bad home start in his 2 starts here and overall he has a 5.66 ERA, allowing 25 hits and 11 walks in 20.2 innings of work at Citi Field this year. 13 runs were scored last night and I expect at least 10 or 11 in this one.

More later