SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta (Game 1) +102 over WASHINGTON
These two play a double-header today and we’re going to side with the visiting Braves in both. Atlanta rallied from 9-0 down last night against Stephen Strasburg and subsequently won it in 11 innings. A win like that shifts momentum strongly in the Braves favor. Edwin Jackson starts the opener for Washington. Jackson has cooled significantly since his hot April/May and it seems poor control has been his undoing. His walks nearly doubled from May to June and have remained troublesome in July. He’s not lasting deep into games anymore and has allowed four runs or more in three straight games. What once looked like a breakout year is now rounding into another typical mediocre Jackson season. Ben Sheets was impressive in his return to the majors last week by shutting down the Mets by yielding two hits and striking out five in six scoreless innings en route to a 6-1 decision. With Sheets on the mound and the Nats hearing footsteps, Atlanta provides full value here.
Atlanta (Game 2) +106 over WASHINGTON
John Lannan starts Game 2 for the Nationals. Lannan unexpectedly started the year in the minors and has remained there until now. It’s surprising because he’s making 5M a year while posting a 3.70 ERA last season in 33 starts. A close look shows why the Nats have kept him in the minors. While Lannan keeps the ball on the ground more than half the time, his control is far below average. Despite his good fortunes, he still sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 58 starts over his past two major league seasons. Randall Delgado is better than his surface numbers. He’s allowed three runs or less in six of his past seven starts and has a 50% groundball profile. His downfall has been too many walks issued but that is improving, as he’s walked just five over his past 20 innings. As a dog in both games, the Braves warrant strong consideration, certainly against two of the Washington’s lesser pitchers.
Stephen Nover
Braves / Nationals Over 8
Burned out bullpens, hot offenses and two bottom-of-the-end rotation starters with a reasonable total all help make this an over play for me.
Washington starter Edwin Jackson is in bad form with a 10.54 ERA in his last three starts. Discount a shocking shutout by Barry Zito four games ago and the Braves are averaging 6.5 runs in their last six games.
Ben Sheets is slated to make his second start for the Braves in his comeback bid. Sheets pitched surprisingly well in his first start for Atlanta - but that was against the punchless Mets. The Nationals represent a tougher challenge. I think Sheets is going to struggle.
There are other factors, too, that favor an over. This is going to be another high humidity day in Washington D.C. and the home plate umpire is slated to be Brian O'Nora, who has proven to be an over ump. The over has cashed 61 percent of the time (27-17) during the last two years when O'Nora has been behind the plate.
Scott Spreitzer
LA Angels +113
I released the Halos on these pages last night and we were rewarded with a 6-1 win behind another great start by Jered Weaver. I mentioned in the write-up that Texas had built a six-game lead over LAA in the AL West standings, thanks mostly to a soft schedule. Texas entered this series having played just 11 games against teams with a winning record since June 1, a span of 51 days. After last night's loss, the Rangers are just 4-8 since June 1 against teams that held a winning record at the start of a series, but 19-6 against teams at .500 or worse. I also mentioned that 10 of the Angels last 13 series came against teams who were above .500 (19-14 in those games after last night). More importantly, the Halos' lineup is simply punishing. The "T-n-T" boys (Mike Trout & Mark Trumbo) are hitting everything. Trout leads the AL in batting average and has 15 home runs, while Trumbo hit his 27th last night. Trumbo has seven home runs in his last 11 games. This marks the third time the Angels will have faced Yu Darvish - advantage Angels. And while Ervin Santana has not pitched well overall, I expect the righthander to continue his dominance over Josh Hamilton, who is hitting .143 in his last 10 games and has struggled in his career against Santana. It should also be noted that Santana owns a 1.04 WHIP and .196 BAA in eight home starts this season. His struggles have come on the road. He's allowed just 2 earned runs and 6 base runners in his last two starts at home, pitching 9 complete innings in one game and 8 innings in the other. Meanwhile, the Rangers are on a 1-5 slide in Darvish's last six road starts. He's been smacked for 24 earned runs and 61 base runners in 36 IP. That's a 6.00 ERA & 1.69 WHIP, to go along with a 6.5 walks per 9 IP average. The Rangers are on a 0-4 slide as a road favorite of -1.50 or smaller and they're on a 0-5 losing skid when Darvish faces AL West opponents. The Angels are on a 10-3 run when Santana is priced as a home underdog and they're on a 23-9 run against starting pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30. I'm backing the Angels on Saturday.
Dr. Ed Meyer
TB Rays -145
The Rays were flat in the opener and the M's nearly stole one. Here, the Rays will not make the same mistake and the M's should have a defeatist attitude.
Tampa Bay is 39-11 at home after a night win in which they used five-plus pitchers and 24-13 when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit, producing 11.5 units of profit.
On the other hand, the M's are 26-60 on the road after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers, dropping 29.4 net units.
The Mariners are a sluggish 27-74 as a road dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead in a night game, dropping 33.6 net units.
Also, Seattle is 10-38 (20.8%) after an extra inning loss, which has been by far the worst in the league.
In Alex Cobb's last start, the Rays only scored two runs of support and they lost 3-2. Tampa Bay, unlike other teams, picks up their starter in this spot. The Rays are 34-6 as a 140+ favorite when they lost by one run in their starter's last start including a perfect 4-0 so far this season. Also, the Rays are a reliable 13-0 as a 130-plus favorite over an AL foe when they scored fewer than three runs and lost in their starter's last start. Check it out with this SDQL text:
This one should not be that close.
FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 6 Seattle 3
Ross King
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
NY Mets are 91-115 versus teams with a winning record and in the second half of the season they are 30-56 the last 3 seasons.Matt Kemp is the real deal and the Dodgers are so much better with him in the lineup.NY Mets have lost 8 of last 9 with a starting e.r.a of 6.29.Capuano is 0-5 versus New York with an e.r.a of close to 6 but his last start against them was back in 2007.Capuano has lost 3 of his last 4 games but has only received 5 runs of support in those games combined.Batista is 4-0 versus the Dodgers with an e.r.a just over two but last faced them in 2006.Batista is 1-1 in 4 starts in his starts this year but in 12 innings of relief work has given up 10 runs.Take Los Angeles over the Mets as these teams are heading in opposite directions as your freeplay winner.
Ben Burns
Minnesota vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City
The Twins won yesterday's game by a score of 2-1. I feel the Royals have a solid shot at bouncing back with a victory here.
Mendoza has quietly been pitching quite well of late. In fact, he's got a stellar 2.53 ERA and 1.078 WHIP his last three starts, averaging better than seven innings in those games. One of them came against Minnesota; he allowed just one run on five hits, through eight innings, in that one. Last time out, Mendoza suffered a hard-luck loss, as he allowed just two runs and only four hits, through 7 1/3 innings but lost 2-1.
While he got a win, Diamond wasn't nearly as sharp as Mendoza last time out. In fact, he allowed five runs, on nine hits, through six innings. Consider KC.
Tony George
Pirates -133
Like AJ Burnett to bounce back after a rare loss and he is at home where he is a perfect 6-0 this year with an ERA of 2.10. The Pirates won last night and I like their chances against Miami whose offense is in a major slump. More run support for the home town team here.
Jimmy Boyd
Pittsburgh Pirates -144
The Pirates, who have won 22 of their last 28 at home, get the nod as our free play against a Miami club that has dropped seven of its last 10. The Bucs have the edge on the mound with Burnett, who is 6-0 (9-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.10 at home this season. He has shown great command with 50 strikeouts and only 16 walks in those 9 starts. The Marlins, meanwhile, are 0-4 in Zambrano's last 4 road starts. He only has 13 strikeouts and 16 walks in those games so the command hasn't been there. The Marlins are 1-6 in Zambrano's last 7 starts overall while the Pirates are 12-1 in Burnett's last 13 overall. We'll take Pittsburgh.
SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner takes us to Great American Ball Park, in Cincinnati, where I like the Milwaukee Brewers to get it done against the Reds, and make note, I want you listing Milwaukee starter Yovani Gallardo.
I know the Brewers' right-hander has a tough task in challenging veteran right-hander Bronson Arroyo, but the Cincinnati rocker hasn't been having the best season and is coming in after his shortest outing of the season last Monday, when he was snake-bitten by Arizona. Arroyo allowed four runs in the first inning alone, an lasted just three frames after giving up eight hits and five earned.
On the flipside, Gallardo comes in after a career-high 14-strikeout performance, in what turned out to be his seventh consecutive quality start.
He was stunning against the National League Central-contending Pittsburgh Pirates, limiting the Bucs to just four hits and one earned run in seven innings. Oh, and in those seven frames, and amid those 14 strikeouts (out of 21 retired batters), he walked none.
Sixteen of Gallardo's 19 starts have been of quality status, and with the thought of being able to knock off the Central-leading Reds, I'm guessing we're going to see his best stuff tonight... again.
Take the Brew Crew, and list Gallardo.
1♦ MILWAUKEE
MATT RIVERS
Saturday's free play is the Under in the Giants-Phillies late day affair at Citizens Bank Ball Park.
You all set for a pitchers duel? That is exactly what you are going to get when All-Stars Matt Cain and Cole Hamels toe the slab today.
This game is all about Cain and Hamels just mowing down the batters. Matt Cain started against Philly back on April 18th and worked nine shutout innings, allowing just two hits in a no decision. Cain has gone a perfect 7-0 during day games, and is the owner of a 2.09 ERA during day light hour games this season. Three of Cain's last four starts have finished Under the total, and with Hamels opposing there is a strong chance this one will also end up Under the total.
Hamels comes into this one fresh off eight frames of one run ball in a win over Colorado, and three of his last four starts have also played Under the posted total.
Seven of the last ten series meetings between the Giants and Phillies have held low. Take the Under as Cain and Hamels pitch deep into this game without giving up much.
4♦ UNDER
DOM CHAMBERS
For the free selection, let’s go with the Pittsburgh Pirates to beat the Miami Marlins.
The Pirates start A.J. Burnett and he’s having a great year for the surprising Pirates.
Overall, he is 10-3 with a 3.78 ERA. But at home, he is even tougher, going 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.034.
He is going against the underachieving Marlins. Carlos Zambrano starts for the Marlins. He is 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 1-1 with a 4.76 ERA and a WHIP of 1.765.
Teams are getting on base against Zambrano and against the opportunistic Pirates, that will cause some trouble.
Pittsburgh has been very tough at home and the excitement is growing there.
Look for the Marlins to have a tough time scoring against Burnett, while the Pirates will get to Zambrano. He is having a hard time getting out of the fifth and sixth innings. So, the Pirates will get to the bullpen and that will be troublesome.
The Pirates have the hitting and the pitching edge.
Take the Pirates.
3♦ PIRATES
EFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie will be for the pitchers in the White Sox-Tigers contest to dominate the hitters this Saturday afternoon, as Chicago-Detroit stays under the total.
It will be Chris Sale taking on Rick Porcello, and while Porcello has allowed 8 runs and 20 hits his last 9-plus innings, I have a feeling he will settle down and rise to the occasion against the Chicago southpaw.
In his two starts this season versus the Pale Hose, Porcello has gone 14 innings and has allowed just 2 earned runs to score. Both of those games did hold under the total by the way.
Chris Sale has just been brilliant for Robin Ventura's team, as he is now 11-2 for the year and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. He is the owner of a 2.11 ERA for the year, and there is no doubt in my mind he will go out there on Saturday and keep the Tigers bats in check.
Chicago is on a 4-1-1 under clip their last 6 times on the field, and you can move that clip to 5-1-1 under after the final out is made in this one.
3♦ UNDER
CRAIG DAVIS
My free play run is 45-30-1.
Don't get too excited Rays fans... I realize it was a nice thriller yesterday and most Rays fans are on a high --- saying it's their time to challenge the Yankees for the division lead.
Sorry, I don't think so.
The Rays look for their third consecutive victory overall and 10th straight against the Mariners tonight at the Trop, sending Jason Vargas to the hill. Last night Ben Zobrist delivered a HUGE 14th inning double as the Rays posted several one-run rallies to beat Seattle.
And I'm just not a big believer in winning that many close games back-to-back-to-back without eventually stumbling.
And I guess I'm just a sucker for starting pitching matchups.
Jason Vargas (9-7, 4.09 ERA) looks to match a career high for wins while also trying to win his third consecutive start. Yeah, I understand he went 10-13 with a 4.25 ERA during the 2011 season... and that wasn't good enough for him... but I see a lot of improvements from him including a 2-0 record and a 2.12 ERA over his past two road starts.
Overall, he's 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in five starts against the Rays. In his last outing, Vargas allowed three runs, five hits and walked a season-high five, but still only lost 3-2. What that shows me is that even though he doesn't pitch his best game... he's still capable of keeping his team in the ball game.
That's all I can ask.
I like the Seattle Mariners as your free play of the day.
2♦ SEATTLE
MLB Predictions
Pittsburgh Pirates -130
We are back on Pittsburgh tonight as they get things done for us last night with a 4-3 win over Miami. The loss was Miami’s third straight, and they are now sitting at 44-49 on the season and 20-25 on the road. Pittsburgh has won three straight games now and are 52-40 on the year and a solid 30-14 at home. Carlos Zambrano is pitching for Miami and has had a rough go lately. He is 5-7 on the season with a 4.22 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .243 opponents batting average, but has pitched to a 7.23 ERA (1-3) in June and 4.76 ERA (1-1) in July. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in each of his last 7 starts. A.J. Burnett will be on the mound for Pittsburgh and he is 10-3 on the year, with a 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .253 opponents batting average. A bit of struggles over his last three starts allowing 6, 2, and 4 earned runs, but A.J. is a perfect 6-0 at home with a stellar 2.10 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .211 opponents batting average. Note that the Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 road games, 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs a team with a home winning % of over .600, and just 7-19 in their last 26 vs a team with a winning record overall. Miami is also just 1-6 in Zambrano’s last 7 starts and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts. The Pirates are 22-6 in their last 28 home games, 14-5 in their last 19 overall, and 9-0 in Burnett’s last 9 home starts. I’ll continue to play on Pittsburgh at home tonight behind a solid home starting pitcher.
Dave Price
Chicago White Sox -130
The White Sox have the edge on the mound with Sale, who is 11-2 with a 2.13 ERA in 16 starts. He's 6-0 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 road starts and 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his last 3 starts. Detroit's Porcello, meanwhile, is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 18 starts. He's 2-3 with a 5.20 ERA in 10 home starts. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last 8 during game 2 of a series while the White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series. The Sox are also 14-4 in their last 18 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Chicago.