Jeff Alexander
Cincinnati Reds -106
Gallardo is pitching well for the Brewers, but Cincy has had his number. He's 4-4 (4-9 on the money line) with an ERA of 4.95 in 13 career starts versus the Reds. The Brewers are 2-7 in Gallardo's last 9 starts versus the Reds and 1-6 in his last 7 road starts versus them. Arroyo, meanwhile, is 4-1 on the money line in his last 5 and 6-2 on the money line in his last 8 starts versus the Brew Crew. Milwaukee has dropped 4 of its last 5 to the Reds and 16 of its last 22 in Cincy. Bet Cincy.
Michael Alexander
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
MILWAUKEE is 7-21 in Gallardos last 28 starts as an underdog
CINCINNATI is 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
CINCINNATI is 11-5 in Arroyos last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game
Andrew Lange
Seattle Team Total Over 3
Since throwing seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Miami back in mid-June Alex Cobb has been so-so with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. I'll cut him some slack knowing that he was thrown to the wolves against KC because the bullpen was overworked and two of the other starts were against lefty-heavy Cleveland. He's better than his 4.92 ERA but not in great form and facing an capable offense tonight in Seattle. Also keep in mind that the Rays used all their big relief arms last night in a 14-inning win. The Mariners have scored 3 runs or more in 22 of 33 road games against right-handed starters. But the ratio is much higher of late with 14 of their last 17 notching 3 or more (12 of those hit four or more). Note that hitter friendly ump Tim McClelland is behind the plate. Not against playing the game over but Vargas has actually been throwing well and could be a good matchup against some of Tampa's lefties
Wunderdog
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -130
The San Francisco Giants hung a 5-spot on the Phillies last night and grabbed the win. They come back with All-Star pitcher Matt Cain to do battle with Cole Hamels. Cain has had a good season, but his road ERA is 1.3 runs greater than what he has done at home. He goes against Cole Hamels who has been no slouch himself, riding into this contest with an 11-3 mark backed by a 3.07 ERA, which is an even better 2.76 at home. Cain has not solved the Phillies over his career where he stands at 1-4, while Hamels has a 5-3 mark vs. the Giants in his career, with three of them complete games. The Phillies enter with a 39-19 mark as a favorite of -110 to -150 over their last 58, while the Giants have had problems in expected pitchers-duels with a total of 7 to 8.5 where they have won just three of their last 10. Play on Philadelphia.
Indian Cowboy
Hamilton (-1.5) over Montreal
Hamilton has covered this game the last two years and they certainly have the goods to win this game at home. Hamilton is 1-2 as they play at home and they come off back-to-back covers. These weren't simple covers as this team fell short by 3 points as an 8-point underdog to British Columbia and covered that game and used it as motivation to beat Toronto by 9 as a -3.5 favorite. I like Hamilton to continue playing well here against Montreal who comes off a tight win against Calgary 33-32 an I can see them having a let down here on the road against a Hamilton team that is playing well. Montreal is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 games as road underdogs and the Tiger-Cats of Hamilton are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they face a team with a winning record.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGEL PLAY
ARIZONA -1.5 (+105) Over Houston: The Astros are the worst road team in baseball this year at 10-39 and they have been outscored by 3.34 rpg in their 39 road losses. In their last 30 road games they are just 4-26 and have been outscored by 4.04 rpg in the 26 losses. The Diamondbacks started off the year with 3 straight 1 run home wins, But that has changed in their last 21 home wins on the year. In their last 21 home wins the D-Backs have won 18 of those games by 2 runs or more, including their last 9. Last night the Astros tagged Trevor Cahill for some runs, but I don't see that happening vs Wade Miley tonight. Wade is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home this year and has allowed just 1 ER in 3 of his last 4 starts at Chase Field, with the D-Backs outscoring their opponents by an 18-3 count in those 3 starts. The D-Backs are 10-5 in Wade's starts and have outscored their opponent by at least 2 runs in each one of those 10 wins. Houston really struggles vs lefties on the road as they have hit just .188 and have scored a mere 2.6 rp/9 off of southpaws away from home. Conversely the D-Backs crush lefties at home, hitting .272 and scoring 6.4 rp/9 off of them here at Chase. Dallas Keuchel is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 4 starts this year. Houston is 1-3 in his starts and all 3 losses have been by 2 runs or more. Look for another easy win for the D-Backs here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Dr. Ed gave this one out and I like it. The Astros are 1-19 vs the RL at night when seeking immediate revenge for a night loss in which they allowed at least six runs and more than two walks.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY Mets/ Dodgers Over 8.5: Google News Play A few days ago I had a thread on some OVER stats that the Mets have when they take on a left handed pitcher so it's only logical I go with the OVER in this one. When the Mets have faced a lefty this year there has been an average of 11 rpg being scored and the Over has gone 27-5-3 in those games. At home the Over is 10-1-1 in their last 11 games when they have faced a lefty with an average of 11.2 rpg being scored. The last 5 home games this situation has come up there have been at least 10 runs scored in each game. Aside from those stats we do have pitchers on the mound that should give up some runs. Chris Capuano has been awesome at home this year, but on the road he has been hit some with a 4.13 ERA. In his last 4 road starts he has allowed 4 ER's or more in three of those games. He also has a 5.90 ERA in 6 starts vs the Mets. Miguel Batista has a good home start and a bad home start in his 2 starts here and overall he has a 5.66 ERA, allowing 25 hits and 11 walks in 20.2 innings of work at Citi Field this year. 13 runs were scored last night and I expect at least 10 or 11 in this one.
St Louis -143 over Chicago: Google News Play Really like the Cards here. Matt Garza has always been a better pitcher at home than on the road and this year is no exception. Matt is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA, while on the road he has gone 2-6 with a 5.67 ERA. Even in this series we find the same kind of stats. Matt has gone 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in 3 starts at Wrigley, but in 2 career starts here he is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA. The Cubs as a team have struggled on the road this year going 14-33, compared to 24-21 at home. St Louis had a tough road trip, but they got back on track last night. Their offense has been struggling, but should have some confidence here after breaking Dempster's 33 inning scoreless streak by getting 4 ER's on 7 hits in 6 innings. At home the Cards have hit .277 and have scored 4.9 rpg, while the Cubs hit just .247 and have scored just 3.6 rpg on the road. Jake Westbrook has been pitching pretty good of late as he is 3-3 with a 3.26 ERA in his last 7 starts, while at home he is 4-3 with a 4.23 ERA. St Louis is looking to keep pace with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati so dropping a home game to one of the worst road teams in baseball is not an option here.
Atlanta/ Washington Over 8.5 Game 2: Earlier in the year Nationals Park was not a place were you would see high scoring games, but after last night's 21 runs were scored there has been an average of 10.5 rpg in the last 10 games in this park. Pitching has been a problem for the Nats of late especially at home, where they have allowed 4.9 rpg in their last 10 games, compared to under 3.75 rpg allowed through their first 24 home games. John Lannan gets the call tonight and will be making his first start of the year. He has never been one to go deep into games as he has averaged just 5.8 innings pitched in his 128 career starts, including averaging just 5.59 inning pitched in his 33 starts last year. That is big considering the fact that the Nats pen has an ERA of 5.67 in their last 10 games and 7.52 in their last 5 games. That should mean some late runs here. The Braves offense comes in scoring a healthy 5.4 rpg in their last 10 games and they do average a solid 4.8 rpg on the road. The Nats Offense for much of the year had been scoring right around 3.6 rpg at home, but in their last 11 home games they have scored 4 or more runs 9 times and have averaged 5.7 rpg over that stretch. They will take aim at a struggling Randall Delgado, who has a 7.15 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and a 5.73 ERA on the road this year. Randall faced the Nats once this year and allowed 4 ER's on 8 hits in 4 innings in that one. Both offense are playing well right now and with a very shaky starter on on side and a poor bull pen on the other, there should be no problems for this game to hit at least 10 runs.
Joe Gavazzi
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
There haven’t been too many times in recent years when you can say the Padre bats were a better bet than those of the Rockies. But such is the case tonight. San Diego is 11-5 in the month of July averaging 4.7 RPG. They have won 6 of their last 7 scoring 40 runs. They have scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 games. All the Rockies damage comes at home. On the road, they average just 3.5 RPG. Expect San Diego to have continued offensive success against the worst pitching staff in MLB with a 5.31 team ERA. Though Francis has pitched well recently, he has a lifetime record of 6-13 vs. San Diego. By far the most losses of any opponent he has faced. Journeyman, Kip Wells, has used his experience to pitch out of a lot of trouble. Surprisingly, it has resulted in a 2.82 ERA. Let’s back the Padres to win their 5th straight game while the Rockies lose their 4th straight. There haven’t been too many times in recent years when you can say the Padre bats were a better bet than those of the Rockies. But such is the case tonight. San Diego is 11-5 in the month of July averaging 4.7 RPG. They have won 6 of their last 7 scoring 40 runs. They have scored 7 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 games. All the Rockies damage comes at home. On the road, they average just 3.5 RPG. Expect San Diego to have continued offensive success against the worst pitching staff in MLB with a 5.31 team ERA. Though Francis has pitched well recently, he has a lifetime record of 6-13 vs. San Diego. By far the most losses of any opponent he has faced. Journeyman, Kip Wells, has used his experience to pitch out of a lot of trouble. Surprisingly, it has resulted in a 2.82 ERA. Let’s back the Padres to win their 5th straight game while the Rockies lose their 4th straight.
Evan Abrams
Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs -1.5
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks RL Pitchers: Dallas Keuchel vs Wade Miley Lineups: Astros- Diamondbacks- This is really simple...The Astros have lost 17 of their last 19 games and now face one of the most effective pitchers in baseball. The Diamondbacks on the other hand have not been playing winning baseball lately either going 3-5 in their last 8 games. Wade Miley has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three starts (Arizona is 1-2 in those three starts), which has been completely out of character for him this season. Miley only allowed 4 earned runs in his four total starts before that stretch which leads me to believe he is in for a good outing here against a weak Houston lineup. Take the Diamondbacks on the run-line for value purposes Saturday night.
Charlies Sports
Colorado Rockies -110
The (35-57) Colorado Rockies of the National League West division will take on the (40-55) San Diego Padres also of the MLB National League West division in 2012 MLB action. The Rockies will send Left handed Jeff Francis, who is (2-2) with a 4.76 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed Kip Wells (1-3) with a 2.82 era. The Padres are 6-4 vs. The Rockies in head to head so far in 2012 including a 9-5 win last night. Colorado gets the road win-110.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +122 over BOSTON
We’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating that Aaron Cook is one of the least appealing starters in the game. As the chalk, he offers up very little. Cook has a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts. An implosion is forthcoming because a pitcher with his underwhelming talent, i.e. two strikeouts in past 29.2 innings, cannot maintain such a pace . Luckily for him and the Bosox, everything put in play has been hit at people. We saw a similar situation last night when Derek Lowe (39 K’s in 108 innings) was rocked by the Orioles and Cook’s strikeout rate is even worse. When you pitch to contact, you need fortunate hit and strand percentages but once the percentages turn against you, troubles begin. Last season, Carlos Villanueva was actually on a nice run in his first extended look as a starter. But a forearm strain derailed the streak and put him on the DL. He was solid out of the bullpen upon his return and he’s been steady ever since returning to the Jays' rotation. A history of solid skills, which include a 46% groundball rate this season with 57 K’s in 50 innings says that he's a sleeper offering bargain opportunity. We're buying.