Bobby Maxwell
Tonight's FREE winner comes from Baltimore as I go with the Twins on the road, taking on the Orioles.
These two teams have split the first two games of this series, but the Twins are on a 3-1 streak against Baltimore this season. They are the better team and facing a very shaky pitcher in this one, so I’ll play the Twins to win this one with ease.
Scott Baker (7-9, 5.15 ERA) goes for Minnesota tonight against a team he has dominated over the last four seasons. Baker has seen Baltimore six times, including once this season, and has never allowed more than three earned runs to the Orioles while the Twins have gone 5-1 in the six starts. In May, Baker held Baltimore to one run in eight innings of a 6-1 victory. His last start in Baltimore came in September 2008 when he gave up one run on four hits in six innings of a 12-2 Minnesota victory.
The Orioles are going with left-hander Brian Matusz (3-10, 5.21 ERA) who is an ugly 0-6 at home with a 5.57 ERA. Baltimore has lost seven of his last 10 starts, including Sunday when he gave up six runs on five hits in 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss to the Blue Jays. Matusz faced these Twins back on May 9 and allowed six runs on nine hits in 3.2 innings of a 6-0 loss. This kid has not been reliable at all for the Orioles this season.
Minnesota is on positive streaks of 39-19 when Baker is favored, 17-5 when he pitches on Saturday, 9-2 when he’s a road favorite and 8-2 when he gets a full four days of rest. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been a train wreck, on slides of 8-20 on Saturday, 2-7 at home, 30-69 as underdogs, 3-9 when Matusz is an underdog and 3-13 in his last 16 outings overall.
Play Minnesota to get the win tonight and light up Matusz and the Orioles. Pay the small price and go with the Twins tonight.
3♦ MINNESOTA
BRETT ATKINS
I am 8-2 with my last 10 free selections and tonight I'm delivering another winner as I go with the Rangers to score the victory at home over the Angels.
Texas is starting to pull away in the race for the A.L. West title, having already taken the first two games of this series from the Angels.
The Rangers, known for their offense, won 1-0 on Friday night, but they will get back to slugging tonight when they meet the Angels’ Ervin Santana who has allowed four runs or more in six of his last nine starts against Texas. His last outing in Texas came two years ago and he allowed six runs in seven innings.
Scott Feldman is on the hill for Texas looking to follow up on his last home start when he held the Orioles to two runs in seven innings. His last home start against the Angels came in September when he limited them to two runs in 6.2 innings.
The Angels have lost 11 of 13 on the road and eight of nine against winning teams.
The Rangers have won six of seven overall and 11 of 14 against the A.L. West and they are 47-23 as home favorites. Play them to keep it going tonight. Go with the Rangers.
2♦ TEXAS
JOEL TYSON
Friday's play was rained out on Toronto-Detroit, but I am coming right back with the same comp selection on Saturday.
Let's back the Detroit Tigers who appear to have righted their ship after their 7 game losing strak, as Detroit has now won their last pair of games, including Thursday afternoon's 5-2 win over the Blue Jays.
Toronto has now lost their last pair, and 3 of their last 4, and they have also lost the last 3 series meetings against Detroit.
Shaun Marcum's home ERA stands at 2.41, while his road ERA is a full 2 runs higher at 4.44. Look for the Tigers who are 34-15 at home to get a few off of the righty.
Rick Porcello is being counted on by Jim Leyland since being called back up to the big club, and he did deliver with 8 innings of 1 run ball in his first start back in over a month last time out.
Detroit the call.
2♦ DETROIT
JEFF BENTON
Friday’s free selection on the Blue Jays was rained out. Despite hitting a bit of a rut this week, I’m still on a 106-74-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, we’ll play Jon Lester and the Red Sox on the run line against the Mariners.
Lester has been a stud all season long, going 11-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 19 starts. And that includes three crappy April performances to start the year. Take those away, and he’s 11-2 with a 2.01 ERA. Most importantly as it relates to this selection, Boston has won 12 games that Lester has started this season, and the last 11 of those wins have been by multiple runs. The final scores of his last six wins: 14-3, 9-3, 5-1, 6-2, 8-2 and 8-1. Just one blowout after another.
Lester has been outstanding on the road this year, too, going 5-2 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, while opponents are batting just .204 against him.
Tonight, Lester faces THE worst offense in all of baseball. Seattle went into Friday’s game ranking dead last in team batting average (.236), dead last in runs scored (320) and dead last in home runs. If that’s not enough, the Mariners are hitting under .210 as a team over the past 11 games, scoring two runs or fewer in seven of those contests.
Furthermore, the Red Sox have won 18 consecutive games in which Lester started and was greater than -200 favorite (the vast majority of those wins covering the run line). Boston is also on hot streaks of 15-6 as a favorite, 4-1 as a road favorite, 8-1 when playing on Saturday and 69-33 overall with Lester starting. The Mariners, meanwhile, have dropped 16 of 20 overall (12 losses by more than one run), 10 of 13 at home and seven straight games against left-handed starters.
3♦ BOSTON RED SOX -1 1.5
Hollywood Sports
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Giants at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
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Rookie left-hander, Madison Bumgarner, has been outstanding for San Fran with his 3-2 mark with a strong 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. He has been even more effective on the road this season with his 1.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .248 opponent's batting average. And in the five games where the Giants have been an underdog with Bumgarner on the hill, the game went Under the Total four times. He faces off against Ian Kennedy with his 5-7 record along with a 4.02 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Kennedy is much more effective at home where he sports a 3.32 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and a .212 opponent's batting average. Kennedy also boasts a 1.93 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .170 in his two career starts against the Giants.
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Additionally, both of these pitchers share a very promising deeper sabermetric statistic that bodes well for their respective futures: batting average for line-drives put into play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .720-.725 range. Bumgarner and Kennedy have .563 and .677 LD BABIPs respectively which indicates that batters are having a difficult time dominating at-bats with these hurlers. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
MTi Sports
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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox are 8-0 (+4.8 rpg) as a 140+ favorite when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start and 9-0 (+3.3 rpg) as a 130+ favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost. The Mariners are 0-10 at home when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and 0-7 as a dog after a loss in which they drew 5+ walks. Finally, the Red Sox are 12-0 when Jon Lester starts vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and 11-0 when Jon Lester starts as a favorite after facing 30 or more hitters. Take Boston.
Matt Fargo
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Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Chicago White Sox
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I think we are getting exceptional value with the White Sox here. They won the series opener last night behind a gem from Mark Buehrle and they look to get a similar outing tonight from a red hot Freddy Garcia. Oakland is 2-2 on this current homestand after taking two from Boston but the common theme so far has been runs as the A’s have scored one-run exactly twice and both resulted in losses. I see that trend continuing here. Garcia has been lights out as he has won nine of his last 10 decisions while posting a tidy 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last nine starts. He held opponents to three earned runs or less in 14 of his 17 outings which is extremely solid with two blowup games being the difference between a 4.37 ERA and 3.32 ERA. Vin Mazzaro has been extremely effective since getting called up as he has a 3.50 ERA in nine starts and three relief appearances. He has tossed five straight quality starts and has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts since the recall. The problem is that the A’s are just 4-4 in those games including a 1-2 record at home. The White Sox are 16-2 this season after allowing four runs or fewer in three straight games and they are 14-2 in their last 16 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Meanwhile Garcia’s teams are 7-0 in his last seven starts against the American League West. The A’s are 2-8 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game while also going 0-4 in Mazzaro’s last four starts against teams with a winning record. 3* Chicago White Sox
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Francisco Giants +104
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With last night's win, the Giants have now won 13 of their last 16 overall, 6 of their last 7 on the road and 5 in a row against the Diamondbacks. I expect the Giants to make it 6 straight over Arizona behind the lefty Bumgarner tonight. He has been sensational, going 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.92 in his last 3 starts. An Arizona club that is just 2-9 in its last 11 games versus a southpaw starter figures to have a tough time putting the bat on the ball tonight. Side with San Francisco.
SPORTS WAGERS
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San Francisco +1.05 over ARIZONA
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The D-Backs are just 7-14 against lefties and will face one here that they’ve never seen (other than 5 career AB’s combined) in Madison Baumgarner. Bumgarner has a nifty 2.41 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a 24:7 K:BB ratio over 33.2 innings and that’s with four of his five starts coming on the road. In fact, his worst start came at home in his season debut but his last four starts have all been on the road and they include games in Colorado and Milwaukee. He has a 1.69 ERA on the road to go along with a BAA of .248. Furthermore, the Giants are 13-3 over its last 16 and remain one of the hottest teams in the league. Ian Kennedy is having a decent year and could have success here. However, the D-Backs are watching him very closely and they’re being very cautious with him so it’s rare to see him go past six innings (or even five) even if he’s pitching well. An aneurysm in his shoulder limited him to just 23.2 innings last season and he has already reached 116.1 innings this year. In his last game against the Mets, Kennedy was pulled after five and he was in complete control, having only thrown 86 pitches and allowing four hits and one ER. The D-Backs are going to continue to be cautious with him because this season is a wash and thus, the Giants advantage becomes even bigger. Play: San Francisco +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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San Diego –1½ +1.01 over PITTSBURGH
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The Padres love playing against this host, as do most teams, but SD is now 19-7 over its last 26 games vs the Pirates. Mat Latos was given a few extra days rest here because of a heavy workload thus far but damn, is this guy the good or what? Latos has had 16 days off between starts so he should be ready and raring to go here and his numbers are just plain sick. He’s allowed just 75 hits in 106 innings for a BAA of .193. On the road his numbers are even better. How about 41 hits in 62 frames for a BAA of .181. Overall he’s walked 28 while striking out 99 and his WHIP of 0.97 is tops in the league. Over his last four starts, Latos has three shutouts and in the other game he allowed one run. The man is gold and the Pirates have never faced him. Ouch. For the Pirates, Jeff Karstens has been pretty good since being inserted into the rotation. Still, he’s just a fourth of fifth starter and nothing about his skills stand out at all. Karstens has a 4.84 ERA, a BAA of .291, a low groundball rate of 38.7% and a high strand rate of 75.4%. He’s also allowed 18 jacks in just 83.2 innings and that works out to about 1.9 HR’s per nine innings. Padres should score at least four (probably more) and that should be more than enough to cash this ticket. Play: San Diego –1½ +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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WINNIPEG +1.00 over Edmonton
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The talk among fans and prognosticators is that the Esks are too good a team to open the year 0-4. Throw in the fact that the Blue Bombers have dropped two straight and will have to go to backup QB Steven Jyles and one can understand why all the money has been coming in on the Eskimos. First off, Jyles is very capable of coming up big. This guy knows the offense as well as Buck Pierce and let’s not forget that he served under coach Paul LaPolice and offensive coordinator Jamie Barresi in Saskatchewan for two years. Jyles is quick, he’s talented, he’s poised and every player and coach on Winnipeg has a ton of confidence in him. After Pierce went down in the third quarter versus Hamilton, Jyles went 9-of-13 for 85 yards and showed a knack for creating something out of a broken play. Jyles has been around for five years and could be primed to take over the reins. Expect the team to be a little extra juiced at home in support of Jyles. As for te Eskies, well, they really haven’t looked that bad to be 0-3 but there’s a reason they keep losing. They have just 53 points in three games and they’re allowing the opposition a ton of yards on the ground (166.7 per game). Statistically, the Esks are the second best team in this game in just about every category and they’re on the road here. Yes, they’re in a foul mood, especially after they should have beaten the Riders last week. However, Winnipeg, too, is in a foul mood after a horrible showing in Hamilton last week and a loss to the Argos the previous week. Winnipeg is strong on the ground (8.1 yds per attempt), which plays right into the Esks biggest weakness. Don’t sell Jyles short here. He’s ready. Play: Winnipeg +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
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Saskatchewan +1.00 over CALGARY
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The good news for the Stamps is that they haven’t played so good yet but they have a winning record at 2-1. Had they been playing well, they might be 3-0 and they might have blown out a couple of teams. However, this isn’t the Argonauts they’re playing and if they don’t step up its game by a big margin, they’re in jeopardy of getting torched. Calgary’s three games have all been against the East and frankly, they’re fortunate they’re not 0-3. They beat the TiCats by a single point last week and its opening 14-point win over the Argos is an extremely flattering score. They were in trouble for most of that game. Now the Stamps will take a big step up in class and play this Western juggernaut that has scored 115 points in three games. Saskatchewan is the cream of the crop this season and in its only road game thus far, in B.C., they won going away, 37-18. The Riders defense has allowed 89 points but 51 came in week one against the Als and if you throw out that game they’ve allowed just 38 in the other two. Frankly, Calgary has not been close to showing enough to warrant being a favorite over this talented intruder while the Riders have shown plenty to suggest they’ll beat this team and they might beat them badly. Play: Saskatchewan +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
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Toronto + over Detroit
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The Blue Jays are 9-4 in the last 13 starts from Shaun Marcum and he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. Although Marcum missed the entire 2009 season he has delivered stellar results over the last four years with a 29-17 record and his season ERA so far this season is just 3.36. Marcum has a 1.18 WHIP on the road and though his ERA is higher away from home the Blue Jays are 6-3 in his road starts. Toronto has been a very respectable road performer on the season with a 24-26 record despite playing in some very tough AL East locations. The Tigers have won the last two games to snap a seven-game losing streak surrounding the All Star break but the numerous injuries impacting this team appears to be catching up. The Tigers have scored just 26 runs in the last nine games and with Brandon Inge and possibly Carlos Guillen missing this game the lineup is greatly weakened. Detroit is batting just .235 in the last ten games compared with a .293 mark for the Blue Jays in that span and Toronto has enjoyed particular success against right-handed pitching. Rick Porcello pitched well in his return last week after spending nearly a month in Toledo after a brutal start to the season. Porcello's start came in favorable conditions in Cleveland however and it should not be viewed as a sign that the young pitcher is back to the form that led a successful rookie season last year. Porcello was hit hard in two of his four minor league starts and his season ERA is 5.63. Porcello is simply not making many bats miss this season with a only 39 strikeouts in 78 innings of work and his ERA is night games is 7.16 with the Tigers going 1-5 in those games. Detroit owns an outstanding home record but Detroit's bullpen has also been in terrible shape of late with a 5.23 ERA in the last ten games. Toronto's offense is a bit hit-or-miss but the power potential is there and the Jays should have the edge in the second game of this series.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -165
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Take the Padres as Pittsburgh won't get anything done offensively against Latos, who has a 2.45 ERA on the season and a 0.44 ERA over his last 3 starts. San Diego should be able to come up with some runs against Karstens, who is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.35 in his last 3 outings. Take the Padres.
JR O'Donnell
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ARI / SFG Over 9
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Over we go tonight in Arizona as the public will see two strong hurlers with dynamite false stats as of late. These 2 ball clubs square off at 8:05 in Chase field. The Public is set up tonight in Arizona as the Over 9 + 100 is the sharp play here from Jr's camp. The Giants Madison Bumgarner 3-2 overall, and 2.41 ERA grabs the mound for the visitor. We note that the Giants have been pounding the ball @ + .300 and a nice 6 runs per battle. On the flip side D Backs starter Ian Kennedy is 5-7 and a 4.02 ERA and he will give up some runs.. look for fireworks to fly tonight!
EZWINNERS
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Boston Red Sox -196
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The Seattle Mariners are a team in turmoil and a dugout fight in last nights game is by far their lowest point of the season. The Mariners will be facing the Red Sox best pitcher in Jon Lester and I don't expect their offense to do much at all. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last seven home games against a left handed starter and the Red Sox are 9-4 in the last thirteen meetings between these two teams. Play on Boston.
INSIDER ANGLES
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
While we realize this looks like a low posted total between the San Diego Padres and the Pittsburgh Pirates, we simply do not know where the runs will come from
Padres’ starter Mat Latos just may be the best pitcher in baseball that relatively few people know about. He has a 2.45 ERA and a remarkable 0.97 WHIP in 106.2 innings, and if you think he has merely taken advantage of the dimensions of Petco Park, think again as he has a 2.60 ERA in 10 road starts. He also has 99 strikeouts overall vs. 28 walks, and he should be doubly tough vs. a weak hitting Pirates team that has never faced him before.
Now, Jeff Karstens may be just 2-5 with a 4.84 ERA in 12 starts for the Pirates, but he looked great in last start while allowing only three hits in six innings with six strikeouts vs. the Milwaukee Brewers, and he does have seven Quality Starts in his 12 starts, so it is not as if he is without ability. Like Matos, this will also be the first ever start for Karstens vs. the Padres.
Somewhat surprisingly, San Diego is actually hitting worse on the road that at home in hitter-friendly Petco this year, as they are batting just .243 while traveling. The Under is a lucrative 26-16-3 in Padre road games on the season, with those games averaging a combined 7.87 runs.
You can probably have at least half a run off of that total here with Latos pitching, which would male the Under the play even at this deflated total.
Pick: Padres/Pirates Under 7.5
Craig Trapp
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LA Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Play: LA Angels
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A really big series as these top two AL West teams. Maybe not a must win but its really important that the Angels win against the bottom pitchers for the Rangers. Feldman is one of the weak links as his ERA is nearing 6 specially as of late. He has a five-start winless streak and has gone 0-2 with a 6.37 ERA in that stretch. He faces Santana for the Angels who has been so up and down this year. Still he has been very dominant at times like last time out going 7 innins of 1 run baseball. Lets take the dog here with the much bigger up side on the pitching of the Angels.