TEDDY COVERS
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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Detroit’s Rick Porcello was the Tigers first round pick in 2007. Porcello rocketed through the minors, earning his first trip to the big leagues within two years of his draft day. He won 14 games as a rookie last year, but went through some growing pains earlier in the season. After a brief stint at Triple A, Porcello was nothing short of brilliant in his return to the Tigers last weekend, throwing eight innings of six hit, no walk, one run baseball at Cleveland.
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The following quote speaks volumes about why Porcello is a bet-on hurler here, showing maturity far beyond his young age. “I don't want to sit here and take a deep breath and say, 'Well, everything is fine, I'm back in the big leagues’ I'd be making a mistake to do that. I think it would be complacency, and I'm going to try not to fall into that trap. I'm not saying I didn't have that attitude at the beginning of the year. It kind of got lost in maybe putting too much pressure on myself and that sort of thing instead of just going out there and saying, 'I know I'm good enough to be here, and I'm good enough to beat every one of these guys,' and going out there and pitching.”
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Toronto’s Shaun Marcum has blister problems on his throwing hand. The blisters forced him out of his last start after allowing nine hits as he labored through five innings against the Orioles. That was his first start back following a stint on the DL with elbow troubles. While Marcum’s overall numbers are quite good, I don’t trust him here with those injury concerns. Detroit has bounced back from their post- All Star break losing streak with consecutive victories over the past two games. Last night’s rainout doesn’t change the fact that this streak is worth riding again tonight. 2* Take Detroit.
Dan Bebe
CLE (+173) vs TAM
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This is, more or less, a "trend play", completely.
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Under just about every other circumstance, I wouldn't touch this game, but I definitely believe we need to play the Indians, at home, against the Rays, until Tampa shows they can win consistently in Cleveland.
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David Price looked shaky coming out of the All Star Break, and Talbot is actually a little better than people give him credit for. On top of that, the Indians are still just rolling along in the post-Break portion of the season.
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But, again, this isn't about line moves or player match-ups, this is about the Rays inability to get anything done in Cleveland. They hate it here, and with the Indians playing their best baseball of the season, it's a great time to put Tampa on perma-fade, in this park.
HOU (-113) vs CIN
I liked this game even before we got the "icing on the cake" news about the starters.
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First, Roy Oswalt is a career 23-2 against the Reds, and that's impressive. Obviously, though, that doesn't have a strong bearing on how this game goes, but it's a team he's confident against, and rarely gives up more than 2-3 runs in a start against the Reds.
Second, Johnny Cueto, for all his outstanding work this year, has still never beaten the Astros in his career. He's 0-4 against Houston with an ERA in the 5's, not at all what you'd expect from such a solid pitcher against a fairly weak offensive club. I believe the confidence factor works in both ways, and Cueto could definitely get in his own head tonight before this one.
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Third, the Astros had yesterday's game in their clutches before the Reds scored a few late to grab the opener, masking what was another rather poor game, overall, from Cincinnati. The Reds simply aren't playing as well now as they did before the All Star Break, and folks haven't completely caught on. The offense had been scuffling, though Bud Norris can always help with that, and again, I believe the Reds are wildly overvalued right now because of all the media attention.
And finally, and I'll admit, I learned this from one of our own Pregame posters, Cueto was presenting with flu-like symptoms, but appears to want to pitch through them.
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This brings up an interesting point -- do you play "listed" pitchers on this game, or maybe just "list" Oswalt, as if Cueto decides he can't go and the Reds substitute another pitcher, the line will likely go off the board, and come back out significantly higher for Houston. This would present a potential scalping spot. So, on this freebie, if your book lets you, I would list Oswalt, and not Cueto.
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That being said, if they both start, I love Houston to get it done in a relatively low-scoring game.
Play on Astros!
Dwayne Bryant
LA Angels +115
Texas has taken the first two games of this series and have opened up a seven-game lead on the Angels in the AL West. And with a potential Trevor Bell vs. Tommy Hunter pitching matchup tomorrow, this looks like the Angels' best shot to steal a game in this four-game set. Scott Feldman (4.78 ERA & 1.59 WHIP at home) is very hittable and therefore beatable. Opponents are batting .321 against Feldman at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. They're also hitting .337 against him in evening starts this season. The Angels tagged Feldman for 5 runs & 9 hits in 5.2 innings back on 6/29 in Anaheim.
Ervin Santana has been better on the road (2.79 ERA) than at home (4.39 ERA). He's allowed a total of just two runs in his last two starts, spanning 15 innings of work. The Angels were held to a total of two runs in the first two games of this series, but that was against a pair of solid lefties (Lee & Wilson). The Halos are batting 31 points higher and scoring a run per game more on the road when facing a righty as opposed to a southpaw. And over their last five games, the Angels are batting .341 and scoring 6.75 runs per game against righties.
Two things kept me from making this a bigger play. First, the Angels bullpen scares me. They've been ok lately, but their road numbers for the season are cause for concern. Secondly, Texas is rolling right now, the bullpen is pitching very well, and they're just a great home team overall. But the Angels know they desperately need a win in this series to keep from getting completely distanced in the AL West, and they have the pitching matchup tonight (with Santana in good current form) to get that win. Like I said, just a SMALL action wager on the Angels & Santana tonight over Texas & Feldman.
John Ryan
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Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
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5* graded play on Milwaukee using the Run Line as they take on the Nationals set to start at Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will easily cover the run line. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 31-8 for 80% winners since 1997. Play on all teams against a run line ranging from (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) that is an average hitting team batting = .255 to .269 and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season facing a decent NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=3.70 to 4.20. Even with Strasburg and a well rested bullpen Washington is just not a team team nor in any position for a strong game today. They are just 4-13 against the run line (-13.5 Units) with a well rested bullpen threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games over the last 2 seasons. Moreover, Strasburg is not pitching and JD Martin is, who we feel Milwaukee will absolutely crush early. Martin is also an imperfect 0-6 against the run line (-8.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season. Nationals are also just 6-15 against the run line (-14.4 Units) in road games versus NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Milwaukee and use the Run Line.
O.C. Dooley
Mets / Dodgers Over 8.5
Going into last night the struggling Mets offense had been held to “four or less” runs in 14 consecutive games which is a streak this franchise had not seen since way back in the 1981 campaign. On Friday the Mets finally snapped that streak by crossing the plate SIX times. Mets outfielder Jason Bay hit a bases-clearing double and is now batting .355 out of the #7 spot of the lineup. The oddsmakers had no choice but to “low ball” today’s total since the Dodgers (.227 batting average past 9 games) are also struggling at the plate. In the past three games the Dodgers have scored a grand total of only 5 runs combined and are also way overdue to break loose. For those who get to watch this game on FOX-TV keep an eye on Los Angeles outfielder Matt Kemp whose career batting average against the Mets (.354) is extremely high. On the mound for New York is the struggling Mike Pelfrey who last time on the mound allowed SIX runs in less than 2 innings. Pelfrey got off to a sizzling 10-2 start this season but has lost his most recent 3 decisions. The Dodgers tapped their bullpen for today’s game and it must be noted that rookie Carlos Monasterious has a high ERA (5.40) as a starter. From the database here is a 75-PERCENT SYSTEM (35-12 past five years) which plays road teams like the Mets who have allowed “4 or less” runs in 4 consecutive games OVER the total against an opponent who has scored “3 or less” runs in 3 consecutive outings. Last night the Dodgers had to deal with Johan Santana who has now allowed only 2 earned runs in the last 31 innings of work. Odds are the Dodgers will be just like the Mets and finally bust loose at the plate this afternoon against a struggling hurler.