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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday July 25,2009

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Drew Gordon
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Minnesota at LA ANGELS -125
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Now on a 31-18 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Braves over the Brewers 9-4 Friday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Minnesota/LA Angels match up.

If it ain't broke then don't fix it, as the saying goes, and right now everything's rolling for the Halos. I know full well the pitching edge here goes to the Twins, who start righty Nick Blackburn... But when the opposing offense is averaging 7+ runs per game, you better be pitching well, and that simply has not been the case with Blackburn.
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Twins righty started the second half with his worst effort in months, getting tagged for 7 runs on 13 hits over 5 innings at Oakland Monday. Needless to say, bouncing back against the red-hot Angels is a lot easier said than done. The fact he's 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 3 career starts against them doesn't exactly inspire confidence either! With Aybar and company crushing opposing pitchers right now, it's tough to side with Blackburn, especially since he's been much less effective on the road (3-4, 4.18 ERA away vs. 5-0, 2.67 ERA at home).

Matt Palmer gets the start for the Halos, and while I admit he's been the beneficiary of some impressive run support (as evidenced by his 7-1 record with a 4.75 ERA), that's hardly the only reason to side with him today. In fact, he's been rock-solid coming out of the bullpen this month, posting a 2.38 ERA in 8 appearances. Not only that, but he's proven far more effective at Angel Stadium, where he's 4-1 with a 4.14 ERA this season.
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Bottom line, more of the same this afternoon, as the Halos and Palmer take care of business once again. Simply too much offense from the home side, as the Angels are crushing righties right now, and there isn't much Blackburn can do to stop them. In the end, the home team has won every meeting this year, and I expect that to continue today.
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Take the LA Angels behind Palmer over Minnesota and Blackburn in this MLB match up.
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2♦ LA ANGELS

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:05 am
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Sports Gambling Hotline
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Atlanta +125 at MILWAUKEE

Another comp play winner last night on Atlanta, as we are now 8-1-1 the last 10 days for FREE.

Have to go right back to the well, and back the Braves once again tonight, as it is clear the Milwaukee Brewers just don't have whatever it takes this season at all.
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Milwaukee has dropped 13 of their last 19 games, while Atlanta is coming on strong with wins in 7 of their last 9.

Tommy Hanson has yet to lose in his big league career, sporting a 5-0 mark, while Milwaukee hurler Yovani Gallardo is 0-2 his last 3 starts, allowing a massive 12 runs to score over his last 16 innings of work.
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Everybody keeps waiting for this offensively-loaded Milwaukee team to make a charge, but if you ask us, it looks like it is not going to happen this season.
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Play on Atlanta.

4♦ ATLANTA

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:06 am
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Jeff Benton
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Florida +150 at L.A. DODGERS

My sensational free-play run continued last night as the Rangers cashed us a nice underdog ticket in Kansas City! That’s now four straight complimentary winners and 13 of 18 in July. Not bad, eh? For Saturday, I’ll look for another big pup to bark, this time taking the Marlins plus the big price at Dodger Stadium.
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This play comes down to two simple beliefs: 1) I don’t think you can trust Dodgers starter Hiroki Kuroda to lay this kind of price right now; and 2) Florida right-hander Rick Vanden Hurk is a tall, hard-throwing right-hander with some filthy stuff – the kind of stuff none of the L.A. hitters have seen before.

Start with Kuroda. A lengthy stay on the disabled list after his start on Opening Day have limited the Japanese native to just 10 games this season, and only two of those were quality outings. Over his last four starts, Kuroda has given up 15 runs (14 earned) in just 21 innings, which works out to a 6.00 ERA, and he’s 0-3 with a 4.45 ERA at home. The Dodgers have split Kuroda’s 10 starts, and while they won his last one (Sunday’s 4-3 come-from-behind victory over Houston), they have yet to win back-to-back games with Kuroda starting.
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As for Vanden Hurk, he was very impressive in his first big-league start of the season Monday in San Diego, giving up just two runs (both solo homers) on five hits in six innings, earning a 3-2 victory. Yes, it was just the Padres, who have a putrid offense. But I watched that entire game and Vanden Hurk was in a groove from the get go and needed just 88 pitches to get through his six frames. He was very sharp.
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Meanwhile, behind Vanden Hurk is an underrated Marlins bullpen that entered Friday’s game against Los Angeles with a 2.09 ERA on the road and a 1.46 ERA in the previous 10 games. Finally, Florida has started its road trip with four straight wins (including last night’s 6-3 victory over Los Angeles); it has won five straight on the highway going back to its last trip; and it is now on a 7-2 roll at Dodger Stadium. In fact, the visitor is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in this rivalry and the ‘dog has won 10 of the last 17. Take the plus money with the Marlins.
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3♦ FLORIDA

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:07 am
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Dominic Fazzini
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Florida at L.A. DODGERS

The Marlins have won four straight road games in their attempt to keep pace with the NL East-leading Phillies.

The Dodgers, however, have been extremely effective at home this season, going 33-16.
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Los Angeles right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 4.73 ERA) has struggled lately, going 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA in four outings this month.

I’ve still got more faith in Kuroda’s ability, though, than I do in Marlins starter Rick VandenHurk’s chances of beating the Dodgers.

VandenHurk (1-0, 3.00) allowed two runs and five hits in six innings Monday to beat the Padres, but San Diego has been one of the worst offensive teams in the majors this season, so I’m not too impressed by that.
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I think Los Angeles’ offense will get to VandenHurk early and often today, and I expect Kuroda to bounce back with a quality effort tonight. Take the Dodgers to win on the run line tonight.
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3♦ L.A. DODGERS -1 1/2

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:08 am
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Karl Garrett
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Oakland at NY YANKEES

4 straight comp play winners, and a 10-2 comp play run from the G-Man the last 12 days!

No reason not to take the Yankees on the RUN LINE this Saturday afternoon in the Bronx, as the Yanks have now won ALL 8 games since the All-Star break, the last 4 coming by 2 runs or more.
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New York has also won the last 8 series meetings against Oakland. All 4 meetings this year have been decided by 2 runs or more, and 6 of the 8 overall have come by at least 2 runs!

Andy Pettitte just worked into the 8th inning in his last start, fanning 8, while allowing just 1 run to score.

His counterpart Gio Gonzalez is 1-1 his last 3 starts with an ERA near 11.
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G-Man sees another lopsided Yankees win over the Athletics today.

Take New York on the RUN LINE.
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3♦ NY YANKEES -1 1/2

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:09 am
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Matt Rivers
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For Saturday take the Braves at Miller Park.

Yovanni Gallardo is a stud and a guy who posesses amazing stuff. But in spots such as this he just seems to lose more than he seems to win and when I say spots like this I mean when laying money against other quality hurlers.
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Tommy Hanson is a wonderkid that has been absolutely phenomenal in his short two or so month stint now in the majors. It's funny how everybody has forgotten about the way the Braves organization treated Tom Glavine when just letting him go because they were going to bring up Hanson instead. I was one of those to say it was disrespectful but in the end it wound up being the right move.

The Brewers and Braves are both quality squads that are right around 85 or so win teams. Bobby Cox' club struggled in the first half but has been a lot better recently and with their wealth of pitching should stick around in this Wild Card hunt. Meanwhile the Brew Crew has the more powerful offense with studs in Braun and Fielder along with other solid bats but the pitching is not on the level of today's opponents overall.
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The bottom line today is that both pitchers can be great in the future and in the now. The offenses are probably going to struggle for the first half of this game and in the end this thing is fairly 50-50 and a must play on Hanson and the Bravos.
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1♦ Braves

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:10 am
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Tony Weston
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The Mariners can’t do anything against the Indians and they end up costing us. That’s fine because we’re getting back on the winning track tonight as we’re taking the Dodgers on the Run Line against the visiting Marlins.
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Despite yesterday’s loss the Dodgers come into tonight’s game having won 5 of their last 6 games and have outscored their opponents, on average, 6.1-3.5.
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Los Angeles comes into this game with Hiroki Kuroda taking the mound, which has been a good thing for the most part lately. The Dodgers are 4-2 his last 6 appearances and have beaten their opponents in those victories by an average of 2.5 runs per.
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On the other side, the Dodgers face the Marlins’ Rick VandenHurk. Over his last 7 games the Marlins are just 3-4 and have been outscored in that stretch, on average, 5.5-3.4.
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Things won’t get any better tonight as the Dodgers cruise to an easy win. Take the Run Line on the Dodgers easily in this one.
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3♦ DODGERS -1 1/2

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:12 am
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Evan Altemus
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NY Mets at Houston
Play: HOUSTON
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Oddsmakers are finally starting to take notice of Houston's dramatically improved play. However, I still feel that the Astros are a great play here. They are facing Mets lefty Jonathan Niese tonight, who has struggled against the three best teams he has faced. Atlanta, Chicago, and Milwaukee all hammered him, and he didn't last very long in those three starts. What is also noticeably is that the Braves absolutely crushed him after they faced him the second time this season, meaning that his stuff wasn't very good after they got used to it. Houston is the much hotter team, while New York is one of the biggest slumping teams in baseball. This line is as low as it is because of Russ Ortiz getting the start. However, Ortiz has pitched much better than expected this season, with only two rough outings. The Mets line-up is still riddled with injuries though, so he will have no problem handling them. The Astros are hitting almost .300 as a team against lefties, and I look for them to crush Niese tonight.
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2 UNIT SELECTION

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:26 am
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Vernon Croy
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Minnesota Twins vs. LAA Angels
Play: Minnesota Twins
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and we are getting solid value here this afternoon with the Twins who have Nick Blackburn (8-4, 3.44) on the mound. This is Matt Palmer's (7-1, 4.75 ERA) first start out of the bullpen for the Angels since June.28. Palmer has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.44 while also allowing 6 earned runs per game over his last 2 starts which were against Arizona and Colorado. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that has a home winning record over .600 and they are a perfect 4-0 in Blackburn's last 4 starts in game 3 of a series. The Twins are also 11-5 in their last 16 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game and the Twins are 5-1 in Blackburn's last 6 starts after a team loss. Take the Minnesota Twins Saturday afternoon.

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:57 am
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Jimmy The Moose
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New York Mets at Houston Astros
Prediction: Over
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The teams played over the total last night. The Mets send Niese to the mound and adter two starts this year his ERA is 5.91 and both games played over the total. New York has played over the total in 4 of his 5 career starts. Houston has played over the total in their last 4 games as a home favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 8 vs. NL East opponents the over is 7-1. The over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 trips to Houston. Play the over.

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:58 am
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LARRY NESS
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San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
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Matt Cain shut down the Rockies last night 3-1 and Colorado has 'cooled' somewhat of late, as the Rockies have lost four of seven at Coors Field after winning 15 of their previous 19 home games. The win was San Francisco's second straight on its 10-game road trip which began with the Giants losing FIVE of their first six. Scoring has been a major problem for San Francisco this trip, as the Giants are batting just .213 as a team in the first eight games of their trip, while scoring a modest 19 runs (2.38 per game). Scoring off Jorge De La Rosa won't be easy. The left-hander has overcome an 0-6 start in 2009 to enter this game 7-7 with a 4.95 ERA. He's 7-1 over his last eight starts, posting a 2.96 ERA in his seven wins. He's won FIVE consecutive starts, while posting a 2.73 ERA and in four career starts vs the Giants is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA (team is 4-0), holding the Giants to a team batting average of .182. The Giants counter with Jonathan Sanchez, who threw one of the more surprising no-hitters MLB has seen in a long time back on July 10 (11 Ks and no walks). Let's be serious. Sanchez is 3-8 with a 4.68 ERA in 18 appearances this year (15 starts), after going 9-12 with a 5.01 ERA last season. He's made 10 road appearances in 2009 (eight starts), posting a 6.02 ERA while going 0-7 (team is 0-8). Sanchez is 1-2 with a 7.47 ERA in three career starts vs the Rockies, including losing twice to the Rockies in September of 2008, posting an 8.71 ERA! The price is a little steep (like Boston last night) but the Rockies are still worth a small play.

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 7:59 am
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Jr Tips
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GIANTS vs. ROCKIES
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Colorado's starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa looks to win his sixth consecutive start as the Rockies(52-44) continue their series with the San Francisco Giants tonight at Coors Field. De La Rosa (7-7, 4.95 ERA) has overcome an 0-6 start and the left-hander is 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last five starts after holding the Arizona Diamondbacks to one run and four hits Monday. De La Rosa is 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA in four career starts versus the Giants (52-44), who are hitting .182 against him. The Giants will start Jonathan Sanchez (3-8, 4.68) for the second time since no-hitting San Diego on July 10th. The 26-year-old left-hander did not factor in Monday's loss at Atlanta after giving up three runs and four hits and Sanchez is 0-2 with an 8.71 ERA in his last two starts versus Colorado which were both last year. Both these pitchers have beeen consisten in their last few outings giving up less than 3 runs a game while these teams have struggled at the plate lately only scoring 4 runs combined last night.
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TAKE SF/COL UNDER 9

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 8:01 am
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LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
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The Under is now 6-1 in the seven head-to-head meetings between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays after the 4-2 Rays win in extra innings here last night, and we look for that pattern to continue in this Saturday matinee.
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The raw numbers of the starting pitchers today do not look great on paper, but both left-handers are better than their statistics. David Price is 3-4 with a 4.86 ERA, but he has one of the most live arms in the league and he has allowed two earned runs or less in six of his 10 starts. That means he has either been very good or very bad, but the good news is he has already handled the Toronto lineup, allowing one run and six hits with seven strikeouts vs. the Jays on July 9.

As for Brian Tallet, he is 5-6 with a 4.95 ERA for Toronto, but he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his last 14 starts. Granted, he was roughed up by the Rays the first time he faced them in Tampa, but Tampa Bay has not hit as well on the road, where they have a losing 23-29 record with a modest .259 team batting average. Also, the Rays have an excellent Under team in general, staying below the total in 17 of their last 22 games.
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Taken back further, the Under is now 29-11 in the last 40 head-to-head meetings including 18-6 here in Toronto. Expect that trend to continue for at least one more game.
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Pick: Rays / Blue Jays Under 9

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 8:24 am
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
299 - 194 run 60 % 47-23 run here 67% 6-0 micro run 100%

Sat Seattle

================================================
Undefeated77's RED HOT plays now 10-2 85% plus

TRENDS SAY pick Toronto/Tampa Bay UNDER 9

TRENDS SAY Pick Atlanta Braves/Milwaukee Brewers
Total Points UNDER 8

================================================

Jeff Benton's smoking hot sports free pick today:

His sensational free-play run continued last night as the Rangers
cashed us a nice 4♦ underdog ticket in Kansas City! That’s now
four straight complimentary winners and 13 of 18 in July.

micro run 4 -0 100%

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

today's pick: 3♦ FLORIDA Marlins

=================================================

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

(959) San Diego Padres +100

(Listing Stauffer and Martin)

2009 Free Selections Record 108-89 (54.8%)

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 9:25 am
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Wunderdog

Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5

The Angels have gotten healthier as the year has progressed, and it has certainly showed up in the won/loss column. The Angels are playing about as good as anyone right now, and have put the last seven in the win column as well as 11 of their last 12. This team has not only been winning, but winning big as they are 16-4 in their last 20 wins to a would be -1.5 runline. The Twins have always been a tough out at home, but have surrendered to defeat on the road with regularity. They have already dropped the first two here, making the tally five of their last six in the loss column on this road trip. Blackburn has struggled of late, but that isn't even the start of the story. The Twins are 0-11 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Angels reach the boiling point off of a win as they are now 22-5 after putting one in the win column. The Halos are too hot to handle right now, against a struggling road team. The Angels get the nod on the runline

 
Posted : July 25, 2009 10:04 am
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