Dave Price
San Diego Padres +116
Look for the Padres, who are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss, to bounce back behind a solid outing from Andrew Cashner. The Padres are 6-2 in Cashner's last 8 starts versus a team with a winning record and 7-3 in his last 10 starts as a road underdog. He's also 1-0 (4-0 on the money line) with a 3.44 ERA in 4 career starts against the D-backs. Arizona's Tyler Skaggs, on the other hand, is 0-1 (0-2 on the money line) with a 10.13 ERA in 2 starts versus San Diego. The Diamondbacks are 3-8 in Skaggs' last 11 starts and 2-6 in his last 8 home starts. The Padres are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings. Take San Diego.
Marc Lawrence
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Prediction: New York Mets
The Nats send Dan Haren to the hill against Dillon Gee and the Mets in Game Two of this three-game series in the nation's capitol Saturday afternoon in the NL East division duel. Haren has fallen on hard times this season, currently riding a 0-11 mark with a 6.02 ERA in his last eleven-team starts. Haren is also 1-6 in games against the NL East this campaign. With Gee 6-3 in his career team starts in this series, including 3-1 in this park, the dog becomes the play here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.
Steven Kane
Tigers -143
Max Scherzer seeks his major league-leading 15th victory as the Detroit Tigers attempt to hand the Phillies a season-worst seventh consecutive loss. The right-hander won for the 20th time in his last 30 starts since Aug. 10, the most in the majors in that span, while the injury-ravaged Phillies (49-54) have plated only 10 runs during their losing streak, batting .208 with 48 strikeouts in 197 at-bats, and they've scored five times in their last five
Bob Balfe
Oakland A's -140
The A's are the best team in the AL at home so just off that alone we know there is a good chance they win today's game. I really like the way Milone pitches at its just a matter of time before he becomes a household name. The Angels continue to struggle and are not a very good road team. Take the A's
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L.A. Angels +126 over OAKLANDFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The A’s went off for six runs last night and evened up the series with a 6-4 win but it came against career stiff, Jerome Williams. When facing a half-decent pitcher, the A’s have very little chance of scoring more than three times. In fact, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer in 12 of their past 19 games. Over that stretch they scored more than three times against Wade Davis, Luis Mendoza, Jerome Williams twice, and in Houston against three Astro starters. From July 3 to July 20, Oakland was held to three runs or fewer in 10 of 12 games and their .211 batting average in July is the worst in the majors. They A’s are no better than at least three quarters of the teams in MLB but some incredible luck, extremely timely hitting and misleading record continues to have them way overpriced. Enter Tommy Milone. Milone's upside is capped, for now. A control artist in the minors, Milone's ability to maintain similar accuracy in his second MLB season has been integral to his success but it's hard to overlook a few glaring negatives in his skill set. Milone has allowed far too many fly balls and line drives, but pitching home games at O.co Coliseum (-12% RHB HR, -31% LHB HR) has worked to his benefit (3.20 home ERA/4.88 road ERA). His groundball/fly-ball split is an alarming 33%/48%. Righties continue to give him problems, as they have hit .276 against him and the Angels line-up can load up with right-handed hitters. Milone’s 1.26 WHIP is average and his xERA of 4.64 reminds us not to overpay. If you bet on him today, you’re overpaying.
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Garrett Richards will be making his first start since April. Despite a 6.26 ERA in those four starts, Richards was pretty solid (18/7 K/BB) and probably didn't deserve to lose his rotation spot. Overall, Richards has been quite good this season, albeit mostly as a reliever, with an elite 57% groundball rate. Over the past month (31 days), Richards’ groundball rate was 64% and he struck out 13 batters in 13 frames while issuing just four walks. Richards has always had the potential and if he seizes this chance he could claim a more permanent rotation spot. At pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum against the weak hitting Athletics, his chances of winning are greater than the A’s with Milone going.
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Minnesota +131 over SEATTLEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Twins won the opener here last night in a Felix Hernandez start and they get a much easier assignment here against Aaron Harang. Harang is coming off a 2-1 victory over the Indians and while that’s impressive, neither he nor the Mariners have won consecutive games that he’s started the entire season. Harang is hit and miss but he's playing with fire now. He’s allowed 15 bombs in just 90 innings and has a fly-ball bias profile of 38% groundballs and 44% fly-balls. Harang’s 5.06 ERA is fully supported by his xERA of 4.70. Harang is prone to the occasional blowup, rarely pitches a gem and his chances of losing remain greater than his chances of winning (5 W’s in 18 starts).
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Samuel Deduno has pitched under the radar the entire season and continues to be undervalued. His strikeout total is low with just 36 in 69 innings but he’s a groundball artist with a rate of 64%, the highest mark in the majors among starters with at least 40 innings pitched. Deduno also has a 50%/13% dominant start/disaster start split and at this level, that’s an impressive stat. Deduno also has an elite 17% line-drive rate and 11% line-drive rate over his past four starts. The Mariners were hot but they’ve lost two of their last three and could not win with Felix Hernandez opposing Scott Diamond (one of the biggest mismatches on the mound this year) last night. Surely, they are much too risky (and overvalued) with Harang favored by this much over Deduno.
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Saskatchewan -3½ over HAMILTONFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The favorites are 14-4 this season. Road favorites are 5-0 and what that suggests is that unlike previous years, there is a big disparity in this league from the best to the worst. That brings us to this game. The Tiger-Cats were supposed to be a much better group but they’ve gotten progressively worse with each passing week. After giving the Argos a scare in Week 1, the ‘Cats were blown out by Edmonton in Week 2. Blown out by Edmonton is a sentence you’re not likely going to read again this season (although the final score was 30-20, it was 30-13 with just a couple of minutes remaining). An ugly 25-20 win over Winnipeg in Week 3 by Hamilton was followed by last week’s 37-0 debacle in Saskatchewan in a game the Riders were penalized for 100 yards. The Ti-Cats can’t move forward. They have no running game whatsoever, (Henry Burris lead the team last week with 10 rushing yards) and the passing game has not been able to compensate. Last week, Burris was benched in favor of Dan LeFevour late in the game. Hamilton is a mess and it’s somewhat unreasonable to expect them to clean things up against the league’s best team.
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The Riders are a different team from 2012. They added a veteran presence during the off-season with the free-agent signings of defensive backs Dwight Anderson and Weldon Brown, linebacker Rey Williams and defensive ends John Chick and Ricky Foley. They have offensive weapons galore. Kory Sheets had 24 carries for 130 yards, last week, the fourth straight game he has surpassed 100 yards in rushing. Rob Bagg led all of the Riders receivers with five receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Weston Dressler had five receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown. The previous week, it was different players that contributed and we haven’t even mentioned Darian Durant yet, who converted 20-of-32 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns last week on a sprained foot. This week he’s healthier. It all adds up to the Riders averaging 37.8 points per game while allowing 16.8. If the Tiger-Cats come out and win this game or cover, so be it but everything tells us that is not going to happen. The Riders are the class of the league while Hamilton lacks everything, especially talent.
John Ryan
Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Houston Astros
The simulator shows a meaningful probability that Houston can win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a?58-57 mark for 50.4% winners, BUT has made a whopping 48 units/unit wagered since 1997. The reason it has been so profitable si that the system averages a +180 DOG play. Play against all AL favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TORONTO) with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.500 to 1.600 on the season with the game being played in the second half of the season. Let's discuss one of the most common errors an amateur bettor will make in the ML sports of the NHL and MLB. The amateur will be consistently betting far more favorites than dogs in all sports. This method of betting is a sure-fire recipe to lose money in MLB. Presuming that Toronto will win this game against the lowly Houston Astros is the first mistake. if that was the case then the ML would be more like -800 instead of this 2:1 line. In my 18 years of betting experience, I cannot tell you that Houston will win this game today. I can tell you that if you wager the same amounts on the dogs I present to you, you have an excellent shot at banking some profits over the course of the season. This is exactly what this system illustrates. It hits only 50% winners, but win percentage is NOT what matters in the Ml sports. Units won is the only thing that matters. So, making an analogy to the popular Black Jack game that pays out essentially even money for a winning hand, this system pays out $180 for every $100 wagered. You'll never see pay-out odds like that at any BJ table in the universe, but this system has produced very real results that does provide that payout.
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Milwaukee at ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado -120FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Milwaukee Brewers have played very good baseball at home over the past few years, but for the most part they have been a train wreck on the road. So far this season, they are 16-31 on the highway. They were beaten badly here last night 8-3. Since pitching three consecutive shutouts, the Brewers' staff has fallen sharply as they have allowed 30 runs in their last five games. The Rockies' pitching has allowed just 27 runs in their last 11 games, and the way they swing the bats certainly poises them to come out on top here. Milwaukee has really struggled in anticipated offensive games, as they are 3-14 in their last 17 with a total from 9 to 10.5. The Rockies have cashed in on 20 of the last 26 meetings played here, and have the edge tonight. Take the Rockies.
Steve Janus
New York Mets +140
The Mets nearly pulled off the double-header sweep yesterday, as the Nationals needed a walk-off homer by Ryan Zimmerman in the nightcap. Even with the win, the Nationals are just 2-7 over their last nine games and the offense is still in a slump. Washington combined for just 14 hits yesterday and now have a horrific .216 average over their last 7 games and that includes a 14-hit performance against the Pirates on Thursday.
The Mets will send out Dillon Gee against the struggling Dan Haren. When you look at Gee's overall numbers, 7-7 4.07 ERA and 1.398 WHIP, it would appear that this is a pretty even matchup. However, Gee has gone six straight starts without a loss and hasn't surrendered a run in 13 and 2/3 innings, posting an impressive 2.21 ERA over his last 3 starts.
As for Haren, he's in the midst of his worst season of his career. He's just 4-11 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.408 Over 18 starts. Washington has lost each of his last 11 starts. While the offense hasn't helped him out, there's no one to blame but Haren. Opposing offenses are hitting .285 during the losing streak. The Mets offense is averaging 4.4 runs/game and are hitting a respectable .267 as a team during this stretch. It's also worth noting that New York has played their best on the road, where they have 25-24 record (just 46-54 overall).
If that's not enough to convince you to put a small play on the Mets. Gee is 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA over 9 career starts vs the Nationals and Haren is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA over 7 career starts vs the Mets!
Joe Gavazzi
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Now that Arizona has become the “Hunter” in their division trailing the Dodgers by ½ game, they have positively responded. Recently, Arizona is 3-1 with a starter ERA of 1.30 scoring 29 runs on 50 hits. 5/6 Skaggs starts have been at home where he has a 3.38 ERA. Certainly want no part of San Diego or Cashner at this price point. The Padres slide continues with negative runs of 8-22, 6-18 and 3-14 away. In 9 road starts, Cashner has a 5.14 ERA.
Larry Ness
Angels vs. A's
Pick: Over
The 25-year-old Richards (2-4, 4.66 ERA) has worked primarily in relief this season, with only four starts among his 34 appearances. The Angels are hoping a run towards the top of the AL West standings but LA has a long climb. Bartolo Colon (now 14-3) beat them last night 6-4 (Colon allowed just two runs) in Oakland and this afternoon, the angels will try to win by handing the ball to Garrett Richards. He’s getting a start for the ineffective Joe Blanton, who was bumped to the bullpen. Blanton is 2-13 (5.66 ERA) in 20 starts this year, with MLB’s worst moneyline mark (4-16, minus-$1,683). can Richards be any worse?
The 25-year-old Richards (2-4, 4.66 ERA) has worked primarily in relief this season, with only four starts among his 34 appearances. “I feel like this is an opportunity to go out and pitch and to show them what I can do,” Richards told reporters. Let me note that he’s 1-2 in those four starts (LA is 2-2), allowing 16 ERs on 22 hits over 26 innings for a 5.54 ERA. That’s not exactly good news for LA fans.
Some better news comes in the fact that Oakland starter Tommy Milone is 1-2 with an awful 7.80 ERA in his last three starts vs the Angels, in which he’s allowed five HRs. The A’s have won FOUR of Milone’s last five starts but NOT because of his excellent pitching, as he’s posted a 4.88 ERA in that five-start stretch. Play this one O-V-E-R!
Rocketman
NY Mets @ Washington
Play: NY Mets +135
The NY Mets travel to Washington to take on the Nationals on Saturday afternoon. The NY Mets are 6-2 this year in the 2nd half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record. Washington has lost 7 of their past 9 games overall. The Mets are allowing only 2.4 runs per game their past seven games overall where they are allowing opponents a combined team batting average of only .196. Washington is scoring only 3 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of only .216. Washington is allowing 6.1 runs per game their past seven games overall. Dillon Gee takes the mound for the Mets where he is 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA his last 3 starts. Dan Haren is 4-11 with a 5.79 ERA overall this year, 3-4 with a 6.92 ERA at home this season and 0-2 his last 3 starts. Gee is 6-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his nine starts vs Washington in his career. Haren is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA in his seven starts vs NY Mets in his career. We'll recommend a small play on the NY Mets today!
Mike Lineback
New York Yankees F5-innings +0.5 -135
Have strong inclination Tampa are ready to give some games back after recent winning streak, which in turn, vaulted team to the top of the AL East Division. Rays rookie start Archer has been solid to date but he has beat up on struggling Toronto, Houston (2x) & Minnesota his last 4 starts. Yes, he has solid stuff, but Yankees start Nova has "nasty-no-hitter" type stuff, and has pitched well since returning from DL. Really like this spot for the Yankees, after losing G#1 of series, and facing Matt Moore tomorrow. Yanks should win at least one game in home series (+.500 club; +.500 at home). And, at Even odds for the game, & a short favorite in F5-innings, we like our chances today, especially with recent addition of Alfonso Soriano to lineup.
Jack Jones
Angels/A's OVER 8
The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland A's feature two of the better lineups in the American League. With two terrible starting pitchers going Saturday, I look for a slug fest between these AL West rivals.
Garrett Richards gets the ball for the Angels in this one. The right-hander has gone 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA over 67 2/3 innings this year. In two road starts, Richards is 0-2 with an 8.52 ERA.
Tom Milone takes the mound for Oakland this afternoon. The left-hander is 8-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts in 2013. Milone is 3-2 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.519 WHIP in five career starts against Los Angeles, while Richards is 0-1 with an 11.11 ERA and 1.764 WHIP in one career start against Oakland.
The OVER is 35-14-2 in Angels last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 6-0-1 in Richards' last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 18-7-4 in the last 29 meetings in Oakland. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings overall. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Baltimore Orioles to continue their dominance over the Boston Red Sox.
For years the O's have been the laughing stock of the AL East and have taken a beating at the hands of the Sox. Not anymore.
At the end of the 2011 season the Orioles took four of the last five vs. Boston and even knocked them out of playoff contention. Then in 2012 the O's won over 90 games in the season including posting a 13-5 record against the Beantowners.
This year, now, they've won six of eight vs. Boston despite trailing them in the standings for much of the season.
The Red Sox dropped out of first place and the O's moved a game closer with last night's happenings. Now the O's must continue their dominance over the Sox in order to keep pace with the Rays and keep moving closer to Boston for second place.
Scott Feldman (2-1, 4.73 ERA) makes his fifth start of the season for the Orioles and he's been better and better with each start, including his last outing which resulted in a 9-2 win over the Royals.
Feldman last faced the Red Sox (and beat them) with seven great innings of work for the Texas Rangers back in 2012.
Take the Orioles over the Sox as your free play of the day.
4♦ BALTIMORE